Recent collapse of shipping market right after unprecedent surge clearly demonstrates that shipping industry is extremely risky. Due to the volatile movements of the freight rates, investors tend to ask higher rate of return; higher required return reduces the total net present value of the investment project. For several decades, the Discounted Cash Flow(DCF hereafter) analysis has been the most frequently used valuation technique. However, the main problem of the DCF analysis is its assumption that the discount rate would stay the same during the project life. In other words, it usually does not address the decisions that managers have after a project has been accepted. The purpose of this study is investigate a new valuation method of investment: the Real Option Analysis(ROA hereafter) on ship investment. By replacing the existing valuation methods with the new one, the research will present a new perspective on investment with uncertainty. While uncertainty increases risk of investment and consequently discounts the value of it in the traditional feasibility analysis, in the ROA, a new valuation method which will be addressed in the research, uncertainty means some additional value of flexibility so that the tool can help investors produce more accurate decisions. Contrary to the DCF analysis, the ROA takes managerial flexibilities into account. In reality, capital budgeting and project management is typically dynamic, rather than static in nature. The ROA finds and assesses the values of managerial flexibilities or real options in the investments. The main structures of the research will be as follows: (1) overview of the ship investment project, (2) evaluation of the project by the Net Present Value analysis, (3) evaluation of the same project by the Real Option Analysis, (4) comparision of the two techniques.
The Korean government has been carrying out the marine ranch development project since 1998 with the purpose of responding to the decrease in coastal fishery resources and fishery income, preparing a systematic management system for the sustainable use of fishery resources and realizing advanced fisheries power by expanding and upgrading fisheries resource development projects. In addition, the government established the Korea Fisheries Resources Agency and promoted projects for the protection and management of fishery resources by increasing basic productivity by artificially creating marine forests in areas where whitening events occur. Since the project of building marine ranches and marine forests requires immense government financial support, it is important to estimate the economic value and thoroughly evaluate the feasibility of the project. In this paper, the project of non-market economic value of the development of marine ranches and the development of marine forests was estimated. CVM (Contingent Valuation Method) was applied as a methodology for benefits estimation. Prior to the analysis, a one-on-one interview survey was conducted with participation of 512 residents and 514 residents respectively for the project of creating a marine ranch and developing a marine forest. A DBDC (Double-Bounded Dichotumous Choice) model was applied in the WTP (Willingness To Pay) analysis model and the socioeconomic variables of the surveyor, such as sex, age, education and income, were reflected in the model. The economic benefits from the two projects, namely, building of marine ranches and developing marine forests were estimated to be equal to 4,608 won and 7,772 won per household per year, respectively. According to the results of the survey, it seems that respondents think that marine forests are more valuable than marine ranches. This is as a result of ordinary citizens' thought that the marine ranches are more cost-effective than the marine forests. The benefits estimated through this study can be used for analysis of economic feasibility prior to carrying out the project of building marine ranches and developing marine forests, and are considered to be the valuable for policy-making purposes and finding social and economic consensus.
Korean won overseas construction projects worth 71.6 billion US Dollars in 2010, which exceeded that of 2009 by 45.6%. An overseas construction project is a transaction of large scale, long term project, many parties participating, deferred payment, and of high-technology. It contributes to foreign currency earning, and also leads the nation's export restructuring work towards high value-added one. There are various kinds of risks towards the relevant parties respectively, which are key elements in successfully performing the overseas construction project. There are completion risk, financing risk, operating risk, revenue risk etc, in an employer's place. A contractor may be confronted with payment risk, issuance risk of performance bond, financing risk, performance risk of sub-contractors, and exchange rate risk. In lenders place there are repayment risk, completion risk, and political risk in the host country. In order to mitigate risks, the parties shall take relevant measures or require relevant securities. A contractor needs to evaluate the credibility of an employer in respect of payment risk, and can also request export insurance cover by the Korea Trade Insurance Corporation(the former 'Korea Export Insurance Corporation"). An employer can require a contractor to provide performance bond in respect of completion risk, and employ a well-known first class bank as a mandated arranger to arrange financing with regard to completion risk. Lenders needs to evaluate the credibility of an employer and accomplish feasibility study of the project. Lenders can request insurance cover from export credit agency. Once the parties assess the respective risks and obtain relevant securities, the project will be successfully completed. The success of the project will be sure to bring the parties involved enormous profits and another opportunity to participate in overseas construction project afterwards.
Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
/
v.5
no.2
s.18
/
pp.172-180
/
2004
Recently, there are growing concerns on the introduction of private financing in railroad station construction project. But private-funded station project does not have the efficient delivery system. This study is focused on the recommended solutions about the private-funded station project management. Through the literature survey and interview, it is investigated and analyzed that project management has the problems. The problems are classified as 2 areas: law & regulations and job practice. The problems in law & regulations are a lowing on the profitability, and an unreasonable project team selection process. Job practice has problems such as delaying in authorization process, and inferior feasibility analysis. The study suggests several recommended solutions related to the problem areas. That are as follows: the efficient return of investment system, the project financing system, the professional project management, the benchmarking team operation, and the cut down on discussion period
With the efforts to development of renewable energy technologies, and increasing awareness to environmental issues, the usage of wood pallets has been increasing every year since the introduction of wood pallet technology to the domestic market. until 2009, majority usage of pellet boiler was in the residential houses. In an effort to increase the distribution of wood pellet boiler to cultivation facilities with high usage of fuels, The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry has launched a distribution project of wood pellet boiler for fuel usage as a part of the agricultural and fishery energy efficiency projects. Although only small number of farms with a heat-culturing facility have replaced from conventional boiler to pellet boiler. Although part of reason for low usage of pallet boiler is lack of understanding and information of it, the main reasons are high initial cost and uncertainty of its cost efficiency. Also, most people from agricultural industry don't realize it's significance in terms of environmental benefit due to lack of understanding in 'resource circulation' and 'adopting to climate change'. In this study, first, we did a cost-efficiency analysis of the farm which uses a diesel boiler to grow cucumber, tomato, paprika. Then we replaced the diesel boiler to a pallet boiler and measured its cost-efficiency again. By comparing the cost-efficiency of the diesel boiler with the pellet boiler, we analyzed the economic viability of pellet boiler. Then we analyzed viability of pallet boiler usage in terms of 'resource circulation' and 'adopting to climate change'. As a result of our analysis, we have found out that under the current system of government support, the energy usage varies depends of the types crops grown and the higher the energy use, the more cost efficient it is to use the pallet boiler. Also, it is economically viable to use the pallet boiler in terms of 'resource circulation' and 'adopting to climate change'.
Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
/
v.25
no.6_3
/
pp.1183-1190
/
2022
Recently, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced a plan to reduce the proportion of economic evaluation in non-metropolitan areas and strengthen balanced development evaluation through the reorganization of the preliminary feasibility study system. In addition, the social value of the quality of life, such as job, environment, and safety, which may be affected by the implementation of transportation facility investment projects, was reflected as the main item of policy evaluation. In this study, the ripple effect of the project in terms of social value was reviewed for the Gangil-Chuncheon. The effect of highway opening was investigated by reviewing the feasibility report, post-evaluation report, and statistical indicators. Recently, the Gangil-Chuncheon highway is getting used by around 110,000 people per day. The number of tourists in Chuncheon rapidly has increased from 5 million a year to more than 11 million now. In addition, it was confirmed to produce effects such as population migration, net inflow and land price increase, improvement of living convenience, and expansion of emergency medical care. Although this ripple effect was influenced by various socio-economic factors as well as the opening of the highway, it is clear that it is difficult to occur without the opening of the highway. It is judged that the evaluation of indirect benefits and social values due to the opening of the highway can be quantified through continuous research and data construction. Post-evaluation of construction works, including project efficiency evaluation and ripple effect evaluation, is performed for construction works with a construction cost of more than 50 billion won. In the future, we will continuously improve the evaluation system in order to evaluate the indirect benefits and social values of public investment projects.
The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
/
v.10
no.1
/
pp.42-52
/
2011
The importance of education and training facilities and education facilities on the relationship between effective as demonstrated in many studies can be very big. In this study, the status of existing school facilities improvement project is done individually, based on the systematic integration of the improvement project was to evaluate the feasibility. Furthermore, it was based on looking for ways to effectively pursue. Training School Facilities Improvement Program to be competitive, the country continued to be pursued systematically and very large scale as a whole must be a great national project. So much to promote efficient business environment, quality of education for children with detractors of the national budget to ensure efficient and most importantly in terms of economic investment that can be. In this study, the proposed K-TEGS existing school facilities, such as the development of techniques for the assessment based on this effort to promote an efficient business should be done on a continuous basis.
Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
/
v.1
no.1
s.1
/
pp.45-52
/
2000
In Korea, demand for the Social Overhead Capital(SOC) projects has tremendously increased since 1970's and is expected to keep growing to support national economic development as well as to enhance the quality of life. In these projects, project planning and feasibility study phase is one of the most critical phases because it determines the success of later phases. However, we have experienced trial and errors repeatedly such as cost overruns and schedule delays in many of the SOC projects. These problems can be prevented or at least expected in the earlier phase and it requires well-developed and standardized project planning process and systems before design, procurement, and construction phases begin. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to investigate current problems in this phase and provide framework for a model for the project planning management which can be used for the SOC projects to insure the whole project success.
Kim, Ki-Chan;Ahn, Ki-Hyun;Kang, Il-Jung;Kwon, Cheol-Shin
Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
/
2007.11a
/
pp.152-155
/
2007
The object of this research is to evaluate the priority of R&B project alternatives which were already screened by both feasibility and suitability of technological performance. This research is a selection model for R&D project alternatives after setting phase. And it is designed by CHP model which include individual and mutual weights. This model have 5 steps. (1) Setting Technology-Modules derived on the setting phase (2) Presenting the evaluation standards divided with 'M-Field' and 'T-Field' (3) Assessing the evaluation standard and technology modules (4) Obtaining and integrating the individually and mutually effective weights (5) Selecting the technology modules based on the priority of order by CHP. Through these steps, this model can suggest the evaluation way from specific technology levels to project level. And it can be guaranteed to perform the selected module set.
International conference on construction engineering and project management
/
2007.03a
/
pp.509-519
/
2007
Private financing is playing an increasing role in public infrastructure construction projects worldwide. However, private investors/operators are exposed to the financial risk of low profitability due to the inaccurate estimation of facility demand, operation income, maintenance costs, etc. From the operator's perspective, a sound and thorough financial feasibility study is required to establish the appropriate capital structure of a project. Operators tend to reduce the equity amount to minimize the level of risk exposure, while creditors persist to raise it, in an attempt to secure a sufficient level of financial involvement from the operators. Therefore, it is important for creditors and operators to reach an agreement for a balanced capital structure that synthetically considers both profitability and repayment capacity. This paper presents an optimal capital structure model for successful private infrastructure investment. This model finds the optimized point where the profitability is balanced with the repayment capacity, with the use of the concept of utility function and multi-objective GA (Generic Algorithm)-based optimization. A case study is presented to show the validity of the model and its verification. The research conclusions provide a proper capital structure for privately-financed infrastructure projects through a proposed multi-objective model.
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