• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2005년도 학술발표회(2)
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• pp.904-905
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• 2005

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.661-665
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• 2016

Background: Stomach cancer is the fifth most common cancer and the third leading cause of death among cancers throughout the world. Therefore, stomach cancer outcomes can affect health systems at the national and international levels. Although stomach cancer mortality and incidence rates have decreased in developed countries, these indicators have a raising trend in East Asian developing countries, particularity in Iran. In this study, we aimed to determine the time trend of age-standardized rates of stomach cancer in different districts of Iran from 2000 to 2010. Materials and Methods: Cases of cancer were registered using a pathology-based system during 2000-2007 and with a population-based system since 2008 in Iran. In this study, we collected information about the incidence of stomach cancer during a 10 year period for 31 provinces and 376 districts, with a total of 49,917 cases. We employed two statistical approaches (a random effects and a random effects Markov model) for modeling the incidence of stomach cancer in different districts of Iran during the studied period. Results: The random effects model showed that the incidence rate of stomach cancer among males and females had an increasing trend and it increased by 2.38 and 0.87 persons every year, respectively. However, after adjusting for previous responses, the random effects Markov model showed an increasing rate of 1.53 and 0.75 for males and females, respectively. Conclusions: This study revealed that there are significant differences between different areas of Iran in terms of age-standardized incidence rates of stomach cancer. Our study suggests that a random effects Markov model can adjust for effects of previous responses.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제51권1호
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• pp.33-40
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• 2018

Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with the spatial distribution of the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran using Bayesian spatial models. Methods: This ecological study was implemented in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Socioeconomic variables, risk factors, and health costs were extracted from the Equity Assessment Study conducted in Tehran. The data on CRC incidence were extracted from the Iranian population-based cancer registry. The $Besag-York-Molli{\acute{e}}$ (BYM) model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of CRC incidence. The software programs OpenBUGS version 3.2.3, ArcGIS 10.3, and GeoDa were used for the analysis. Results: The Moran index was statistically significant for all the variables studied (p<0.05). The BYM model showed that having a women head of household (median standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 2.53), living in a rental house (median SIR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96), not consuming milk daily (median SIR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94) and having greater household health expenditures (median SIR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.68) were associated with a statistically significant elevation in the SIR of CRC. The median (interquartile range) and mean (standard deviation) values of the SIR of CRC, with the inclusion of all the variables studied in the model, were 0.57 (1.01) and 1.05 (1.31), respectively. Conclusions: Inequality was found in the spatial distribution of CRC incidence in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Paying attention to this inequality and the factors associated with it may be useful for resource allocation and developing preventive strategies in at-risk areas.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권sup3호
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• pp.11-15
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• 2016

Gastrointestinal cancers remain the most prevalent cancers in many developing countries such as Iran. The aim of this study was to estimate incidence, prevalence and mortality, as well as time trends for gastrointestinal cancers in Isfahan province of Iran for the period 2001 to 2010 and to project these estimates to the year 2020. Estimates were driven by applying the MIAMOD method (a backward calculation approach using mortality and relative survival rates). Mortality data were obtained from the Ministry of Health and the relative survival rate for all gastrointestinal cancers combined was derived from the Eurocare 3 study. Results indicated that there were clear upward trends in age adjusted incidence (males 22.9 to 74.2 and females 14.9 to 44.2), prevalence (males 52.6 to 177.7 and females 38.3 to 111.03), and mortality (males 14.6 to 47.2 and females 9.6 to 28.2) rates per 100,000 for the period of 2001 to 2010 and this upward state would persist for the projected period. For the entire period, the male to female ratio increased slightly for all parameters (incidence rate increased from 1.5 to 1.7, prevalence from 1.4 to 1.6, and mortality from 1.5 to 1.7). In males, totals of 2,179 incident cases, 5,097 prevalent cases and 1,398 mortality cases were predicated to occur during the study period. For females the predicted figures were 1,379, 3,190 and 891, respectively. It was concluded that the upward trend of incidence alongside increase in survival rates would induce a high burden on the health care infrastructure in the province of Isfahan in the future.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권sup3호
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• pp.39-42
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• 2016

Cancer is a major public health problem in Iran. The aim of this study was to evaluate trends in incidence of ten common cancers in Iran, based on the national cancer registry reports from 2004 to 2009. This epidemiological study was carried out based on existing age-standardized estimate cancer data from the national report on cancer registry/Ministry of Health in Iran. The obtained data were analyzed by test for linear trend and $P{\geq}0.05$ was taken as the significant level. Totals of 41,169 and 32,898 cases of cancer were registered in men and females, respectively, during these years. Overall age-standard incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 population according to primary site weres 125.6 and 113.4 in males and females, respectively. Between 2004 and 2009, the ten most common cancers (excluding skin cancer) were stomach (16.2), bladder (12.6), prostate (11), colon-rectum (10.14), hematopoeitic system (7.1), lung (6.1), esophagus (6.4), brain (3.2), lymph node (3.8) and larynx (3.4) in males; and in females were breast (27.4), colon-rectum (9.3), stomach (7.6), esophagus (6.4), hematopoeitic system (4.9), thyroid (3.9), ovary (3.6), corpus uteri (2.9), bladder (3.2) and lung (2.6). Moreover, results showed that skin cancer was estimated as the most common cancer in both sexes. The lowest and the highest incidence in females and males were reported respectively in 2004 and 2009. Over this period, the incidence of cancer in both sexes has been significantly increasing (p<0.01). Like other less developed and epidemiologically transitioning countries, the trend of age-standardized incidence rate of cancer in Iran is rising. Due to the increasing trends, the future burden of cancer in the Iran is going to be acute with the expected increases in aging populations. Determining and controlling potential risk factors of cancer should hopefully lead to decrease in its burden.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.389-408
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• 2016

Recently, seismic hazard analysis has become a very significant issue. New systems and available data have been also developed that could help scientists to explain the earthquakes phenomena and its physics. Scientists have begun to accept the role of uncertainty in earthquake issues and seismic hazard analysis. However, handling the existing uncertainty is still an important problem and lack of data causes difficulties in precisely quantifying uncertainty. Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) values are usually obtained in a statistical method: regression analysis. Each of these GMPEs uses the preliminary data of the selected earthquake. In this paper, a new fuzzy method was proposed to select suitable GMPE at every intensity (earthquake magnitude) and distance (site distance to fault) according to preliminary data aggregation in their area using ${\alpha}$ cut. The results showed that the use of this method as a GMPE could make a significant difference in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) results instead of selecting one equation or using logic tree. Also, a practical example of this new method was described in Iran as one of the world's earthquake-prone areas.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.99-123
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• 2015

In this study, structural vulnerability of reinforced concrete moment resisting frames (RC-MRFs) by considering the Iran-specific characteristics is investigated to manage the earthquake risk in terms of multicomponent seismic excitations. Low and medium rise RC-MRFs, which constitute approximately 80-90% of the total buildings stock in Iran, are focused in this fragility-based assessment. The seismic design of 3-12 story RC-MRFs are carried out according to the Iranian Code of Practice for Seismic Resistant Design of Buildings (Standard No. 2800), and the analytical models are formed accordingly in open source nonlinear platforms. Frame structures are categorized in three subclasses according to the specific characteristics of construction practice and the observed seismic performance after major earthquakes in Iran. Both far and near fields' ground motions have been considered in the fragility estimation. An optimal intensity measure (IM) called Sa, avg and beta probability distribution were used to obtain reliable fragility-based database for earthquake damage and loss estimation of RC buildings stock in urban areas of Iran. Nonlinear incremental dynamic analyses by means of lumped-parameter based structural models have been simulated and performed to extract the fragility curves. Approximate confidence bounds are developed to represent the epistemic uncertainties inherent in the fragility estimations. Consequently, it's shown that including vertical ground motion in the analysis is highly recommended for reliable seismic assessment of RC buildings.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.563-581
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• 2009

In this paper, the peak horizontal ground acceleration over the bedrock (PGA) is calculated by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). For this reason, at first, all the occurred earthquakes in a radius of 200 km of Sanandaj city have been gathered. After elimination of the aftershocks and foreshocks, the main earthquakes were taken into consideration to calculate the seismic parameters (SP) by Kijko (2000) method. The seismotectonic model of the considered region and the seismic sources of the region have been modeled. In this research, Sanandaj and its vicinity has been meshed as an 8 (vertical lines) * 10 (horizontal lines) and the PGA is calculated for each point of the mesh using the logic tree method and the five attenuation relationships (AR) with different weighted coefficient. These calculations have been performed by the Poisson distribution of four hazard levels. Then by using it, four regional maps of the seismic hazard regions have been provided for Sanandaj and its vicinity. The results show that the maximum and minimum value of PGA for the return periods of 75, 225, 475, 2475 years are (0.114, 0.074) (0.157, 0.101), (0.189, 0.121) and (0.266, 0.170), respectively.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.35-45
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• 2017

The current paper investigates the effect of the seismic pounding of neighboring buildings on the response of structures isolated by Triple Friction Pendulum Bearing (TFPB). To this end, a symmetric three-dimensional single story building is modeled for analysis with two specified levels of top deck and base deck, to capture the seismic response of the base isolators and building's roof. Linear elastic springs with different level of gaps are employed to calculate the impact between the buildings. Nonlinear Dynamic Time History Analyses (NDTHA) are conducted for seismic evaluation. Also, five different sizes with four different sets of friction coefficients are assumed for base isolators to cover a whole range of base isolation systems with various geometry configurations and fundamental period. The results are investigated in terms of base shear, buildings' drift and top deck acceleration of the superstructure. The results also indicate the profound effect of the stiffness of the adjacent buildings on the value of the impact they impose to the superstructure. Also, in situations of potential pounding, the increment of the fundamental period of the TFPB base isolator could intensify the impact force up to nearly five-fold.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.2403-2407
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• 2015

Background: Very few analytical studies are available on any association between stressful life events (SLE) and colorectal cancer (CRC), at least in Iran. The aim of this case control study was to determine the association between stressful life events (SLE) and colorectal cancer. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted in four hospital colonoscopy units in Tabriz city of Iran including 414 participants aged 40-75 years: 207 cases with CRC confirmed by pathology and colonoscopy findings and 207 controls free of neoplastic conditions were selected (from the same hospitals at the same period for the cases and after matching for age and sex). Stressful life events were assessed using a 43-item Holmes and Rahe Life Events Questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios for SLE and risk of CRC. Results: The stressful life event mean score in the case group was 141.3, in contrast to 63.8 in the control group (p<0.011). After adjusting for confounders, death of dear ones increased the risk of CRC (OR: 2.49; 95%CI: 1.41-5.13). Other types of stressful life events (family and husband disputes, serious occupational problems, unemployment of > 6 months, and Serious financial problems) were also associated with CRC, but without statistical significance. Conclusions: According to our findings, it seems that SLE may increase the risk of CRC.