• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.34-46
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• 2002

Carbon accounting is a key issue in the discussions on global warming/CO$_2$mitigation. This paper applies both the IPCC Approach and the NEAT (Non-Energy use Emission Accounting Tables) model, a bottom-up approach, to estimate the potential CO$_2$ emissions (carbon storage) originating from the non-energy use as to assess the actual CO$_2$ emissions (carbon release) from the use of fossil fuels in Korea. The current Korean carbon accounting seems to overestimate the potential CO$_2$ emissions and with it to underestimate the actual CO$_2$ emissions. The estimation shows that the potential CO$_2$ emissions calculated according to the IPCC Approach are lower than those calculated using the NEAT model. This is because the IPCC default storage fraction for naphtha seems to be low for the Korean petrochemical production structure, on the one hand and because the IPCC Approach does not consider the trade with short life petrochemical products, on the other hand. This paper shows that a bottom-up approach like the NEAT model can contribute to overcome some of limitations of the IPCC guidelines, especially by considering the international trade with short life petrochemical products and by estimating the storage fractions of fossil fuels used as feedstocks for the country in consideration. This paper emphasizes the importance of accurate energy statistics for carbon accounting.

• Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.131-139
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• 2022

The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of a landfill project to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) from La Chureca Landfill in Managua, Nicaragua ("Project"). The feasibility study involved surveying the status and composition of waste on its way in to the landfill and projecting GHG emissions from the landfill. A projection of the GHG emissions with the IPCC model based on the survey results indicated the period 2006 to 2043 would see mean yearly GHG emissions of 290,147 ton-CO₂/year with model certainty not considered, and 217,610 ton-CO₂/year with model certainty considered. Thus, the result exceeded the corresponding median and mean values of other CDM projects implemented in Central America, even after model uncertainty was considered together with the conservative estimation of carbon capture efficiency. The similar result was produced even with an analysis of sensitivity to error factors. All the findings of the study are expected to be applicable as basic data for deciding about whether & how to proceed with the Project.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.55-68
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• 2011

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) has identified the causes of climate change and come up with measures to address it at the global level. Its key component of the work involves developing and assessing future climate change scenarios. The IPCC Expert Meeting in September 2007 identified a new greenhouse gas concentration scenario "Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)" and established the framework and development schedules for Climate Modeling (CM), Integrated Assessment Modeling(IAM), Impact Adaptation Vulnerability(IAV) community for the fifth IPCC Assessment Reports while 130 researchers and users took part in. The CM community at the IPCC Expert Meeting in September 2008, agreed on a new set of coordinated climate model experiments, the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5), which consists of more than 30 standardized experiment protocols for the shortterm and long-term time scales, in order to enhance understanding on climate change for the IPCC AR5 and to develop climate change scenarios and to address major issues raised at the IPCC AR4. Since early 2009, fourteen countries including the Korea have been carrying out CMIP5-related projects. Withe increasing interest on climate change, in 2009 the COdinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment(CORDEX) has been launched to generate regional and local level information on climate change. The National Institute of Meteorological Research(NIMR) under the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has contributed to the IPCC AR4 by developing climate change scenarios based on IPCC SRES using ECHO-G and embarked on crafting national scenarios for climate change as well as RCP-based global ones by engaging in international projects such as CMIP5 and CORDEX. NIMR/KMA will make a contribution to drawing the IPCC AR5 and will develop national climate change scenarios reflecting geographical factors, local climate characteristics and user needs and provide them to national IAV and IAM communites to assess future regional climate impacts and take action.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.253-264
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• 2012

In the northwestern Pacific, spawning of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus, occurs at continental shelf and slope areas of 100-500 m, and the optimum temperature for the spawning and survival of paralarvae is assumed to be $18-23^{\circ}C$. To predict the spawning ground of Todarodes pacificus under future climate conditions, we simulated the present and future ocean circulations, using an East Asia regional ocean model (Modular Ocean Model, MOM version3), projected by two different global climate models (MPI_echam5, MIROC_hires), under an IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Mean climate states for 1990-1999 and 2030-2039 from 20th and 21th Century Climate Change model simulation (from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report) were used as surface conditions for simulations, and we examined changes in spawning ground between the 1990s and 2030s. The results revealed that the distribution of spawning ground in the 2030s in both climate models shifted northward in the East China Sea and East Sea, for both autumn and winter populations, compared to that of the 1990s. Also, the spawning area (with $1/6^{\circ}{\times}1/6^{\circ}$ grid) in the 2030s of the autumn and winter populations will decline by 11.6% (MPI_echam5) to 30.8% (MIROC_hires) and 3.0% (MPI_echam5) to 18.2% (MIROC_hires), respectively, from those of the 1990s.

• Resources Recycling
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.28-35
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• 2016

The purpose of this study was to estimate greenhouse gas emissions using IPCC 1996 Guideline Tier 1, Good Practice Guidance 2000 Tier 2 and IPCC 2006 Guideline First Order Decay methods from landfill disposal facility. In addition, a comparative analysis evaluating the pros and cons of each method based on assumptions and default factors was considered for each method. The greenhouse gas emission computed using IPCC 1996 Guideline Tier 1 method (2,760 ton/yr) was higher than the estimation of GPG 2000 Tier 2 and IPCC 2006 Guideline First Order Decay Model which showed 1500 and 880 ton/yr respectively between 2000 and 2013.

• Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.13-19
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• 2024

The objective of this study was to assess the feasibility of a landfill project aimed at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) from Puerto Cortes Landfill in Honduras ("Project"). The feasibility study involved surveying the status, composition and amount of waste entering the landfill, and projecting GHG emissions from the landfill. A projection of the GHG emissions with the IPCC model and based on the survey results indicated that the period 2027 to 2041 would see a total GHG emission reduction of 506,835 ton-CO₂/year, with a mean yearly GHG emission reduction of 33,789 ton-CO₂, assuming landfill gas collection is implemented, The findings of the study are expected to serve as basic data for deciding about whether and how to proceed with the Project.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.268-272
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• 2010

The research presented here represents a collaborative effort with the SFWMD on developing scenarios for future climate for the SFWMD area. The project focuses on developing methodology for simulating precipitation representing both natural quasi-oscillatory modes of variability in these climate variables and also the secular trends projected by the IPCC scenarios that are publicly available. This study specifically provides the results for precipitation modeling. The starting point for the modeling was the work of Tebaldi et al that is considered one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to formally and simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different ensemble model simulations from the IPCC scenarios. The low frequency variability is modeled using the previously developed Wavelet Autoregressive Model (WARM), with a correction to preserve the variance associated with the full series from the HBM projections. The assumption here is that there is no useful information in the IPCC models as to the change in the low frequency variability of the regional, seasonal precipitation. This assumption is based on a preliminary analysis of these models historical and future output. Thus, preserving the low frequency structure from the historical series into the future emerges as a pragmatic goal. We find that there are significant biases between the observations and the base case scenarios for precipitation. The biases vary across models, and are shrunk using posterior maximum likelihood to allow some models to depart from the central tendency while allowing others to cluster and reduce biases by averaging. The projected changes in the future precipitation are small compared to the bias between model base run and observations and also relative to the inter-annual and decadal variability in the precipitation.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.64-69
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• 2013

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Working Group III, climate change is already in progress around the world, and it is necessary to execute mitigation in order to minimize adverse impacts. This paper suggests future climate change needs, employing IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) to predict temperature rises over the next 100 years. This information can be used to develop sustainable architecture applications for energy efficient buildings and renewable energy. Such climate changes could also affected the present supplies of renewable energy sources. This paper discusses one recent Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC (Mitigation of Climate Change) and the Hadley Centre climate simulation of relevant data series for South Korea. Result of this research may improve consistency and reliability of simulation weather data or climate change in order to take advantage of SRES and PRECIS QUMP. It is expected that these calculated test reference years will be useful to the designers of solar energy systems, as well as those who need daily solar radiation data for South Korea. Also, those results may contribute zero carbon and design of sustainable architecture establishing future typical weather data that should be gone ahead to energy efficient building design using renewable energy systems.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.55-70
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• 2008

The global time slice approach is a transient experiment using high resolution atmosphere-only model with boundary condition from the low resolution globally coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The present study employs this "time slice concept" using ECHAM4 atmosphere-only model at a horizontal resolution of T106 with the lower boundary forcing obtained from a lower-resolution (T42) greenhouse gas + aerosol forcing experiment performed using the ECHO-G/S (ECHAM4/HOPE-G) coupled model. In order to assess the impact of horizontal resolution on simulated East Asian summer monsoon climate, the differences in climate response between the time slice experiments of the present and that of IPCC SRES AR4 participating 21 models including coarser (T30) coupled model are compared. The higher resolution model from time slice experiment in the present climate show successful performance in simulating the northward migration and the location of the maximum rainfall during the rainy season over East Asia, although its rainfall amount was somewhat weak compared to the observation. Based on the present climate simulation, the possible change of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the future climate by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, tends to be increased especially over the eastern part of Japan during July and September. The increase of the precipitation over this region seems to be related with the weakening of northwestern part of North Pacific High and the formation of anticyclonic flow over the south of Yangtze River in the future climate.

• Water Engineering Research
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.81-99
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• 2004

Long term streamflow regime under virtual climate change scenario was examined. Rainfall forecast simulation of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) of the Canadian Climate Center for modeling and analysis for the IPCC SRES B2 scenario was used for analysis. The B2 scenario envisions slower population growth (10.4 billion by 2010) with a more rapidly evolving economy and more emphasis on environmental protection. The relatively large scale of GCM hinders the accurate computation of the important streamflow characteristics such as the peak flow rate and lag time, etc. The GCM rainfall with more than 100km scale was downscaled to 2km-scale using the space-time stochastic random cascade model. The HEC-HMS was used for distributed hydrologic model which can take the grid rainfall as input data. The result illustrates that the annual variation of the total runoff and the peak flow can be much greater than rainfall variation, which means actual impact of rainfall variation for the available water resources can be much greater than the extent of the rainfall variation.