• Title/Summary/Keyword: IPCC

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Projection of Future Heating and Cooling Degree Days over South Korea under the IPCC SRES Scenarios: An Experiment with CCSM3 and MM5 Models (IPCC SRES 시나리오에 따른 우리나라의 미래 냉난방도일 전망: CCSM3와 MM5 모델 활용)

  • Choi, Jin Young;Song, Chang Kun;Kim, Deok Rae;Hong, Sung Chul;Hong, Yoo Deog;Lee, Jae Bum
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.141-158
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    • 2013
  • In this study, the projection of future heating and cooling degree days (HDDs and CDDs) has been conducted over South Korea for the period 1996~2005 with 2046~2055 and 2091~2100, using CCSM3 and MM5 simulations driven by the six IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2). Annual mean surface air temperature increases by $1.2{\sim}3.4^{\circ}C$ at the end of the 21st century comparing to the present-day (1996~2005) in South Korea. HDDs decrease by 8~25% and CDDs increase up to 242~1,448% with corresponding changes in temperature. These increases and decreases also change the duration of HDDs and CDDs. HDDs duration decreases by 1 month, while the expansion of CDDs duration is much longer than 2 months. Thus, projected future HDDs and CDDs changes appear that cooling energy demand in summer season would increase and heating energy demand in winter would decrease in the future. Especially, these remarkable changes would be obvious at high mountain area, Gangwon-do and at south area, Jeju island. In the sense of future energy supply and policy, electrical energy for cooling in summer could be getting much more its importance rather than fossil energy used for heating in winter.

Evaluation of indirect N2O Emission from Nitrogen Leaching in the Ground-water in Korea (우리나라 농경지에서 질소의 수계유출에 의한 아산화질소 간접배출량 평가)

  • Kim, Gun-Yeob;Jeong, Hyun-Cheol;Kim, Min-Kyeong;Roh, Kee-An;Lee, Deog-Bae;Kang, Kee-Kyung
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.1232-1238
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    • 2011
  • This experiment was conducted to measure concentration of dissolved $N_2O$ in ground-water of 59 wells and to make emission factor for assessment of indirect $N_2O$ emission at agricultural sector in agricultural areas of Gyeongnam province from 2007 to 2010. Concentrations of dissolved $N_2O$ in ground-water of 59 wells were ranged trace to $196.6{\mu}g-N\;L^{-1}$. $N_2O$ concentrations were positively related with $NO_3$-N suggesting that denitrification was the principal reason of $N_2O$ production and $NO_3$-N concentration was the best predictor of indirect $N_2O$ emission. The ratio of dissolved $N_2O$-N to $NO_3$-N in ground-water was very important to make emission factor for assessment of indirect $N_2O$ emission at agricultural sector. The mean ratio of $N_2O$-N to $NO_3$-N was 0.0035. It was greatly lower than 0.015, the default value of currently using in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology for assessing indirect $N_2O$ emission in agro-ecosystems (IPCC, 1996). It means that the IPCC's present nitrogen indirect emission factor ($EF_{5-g}$, 0.015) and indirect $N_2O$ emission estimated with IPCC's emission factor are too high to use adopt in Korea. So we recommend 0.0034 as national specific emission factor ($EF_{5-g}$) for assessment of indirect $N_2O$ emission at agricultural sector. Using the estimated value of 0.0034 as the emission factor ($EF_{5-g}$) revised the indirect $N_2O$ emission from agricultural sector in Korea decreased from 1,801,576 ton ($CO_2$-eq) to 964,645 ton ($CO_2$-eq) in 2008. The results of this study suggest that the indirect Emission of nitrous oxide from upland recommend 0.0034 as national specific emission factor ($EF_{5-g}$) for assessment of indirect $N_2O$ emission at agricultural sector.

Prediction of future hydrologic variables of Asia using RCP scenario and global hydrology model (RCP 시나리오 및 전지구 수문 모형을 활용한 아시아 미래 수문인자 예측)

  • Kim, Dawun;Kim, Daeun;Kang, Seok-koo;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.551-563
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    • 2016
  • According to the 4th and 5th assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate has been rapidly changing because of the human activities since Industrial Revolution. The perceived changes were appeared strongly in temperature and concentration of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$). Global average temperature has increased about $0.74^{\circ}C$ over last 100 years (IPCC, 2007) and concentration of $CO_2$ is unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years (IPCC, 2014). These phenomena influence precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture which have an important role in hydrology, and that is the reason why there is a necessity to study climate change. In this study, Asia region was selected to simulate primary energy index from 1951 to 2100. To predict future climate change effect, Common Land Model (CLM) which is used for various fields across the world was employed. The forcing data was Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) data which is the newest greenhouse gas emission scenario published in IPCC 5th assessment. Validation of net radiation ($R_n$), sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE) for historical period was performed with 5 flux tower site-data in the region of AsiaFlux and the monthly trends of simulation results were almost equaled to observation data. The simulation results for 2006-2100 showed almost stable net radiation, slightly decreasing sensible heat flux and quite increasing latent heat flux. Especially the uptrend for RCP 8.5 has been about doubled compared to RCP 4.5 and since late 2060s, variations of net radiation and sensible heat flux would be significantly risen becoming an extreme climate condition. In a follow-up study, a simulation for energy index and hydrological index under the detailed condition will be conducted with various scenario established from this study.

Evaluation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Cropland Sector on Local Government Levels based on 2006 IPCC Guideline (2006 IPCC 가이드라인을 적용한 지자체별 경종부문 온실가스 배출량 평가)

  • Jeong, Hyun-Cheol;Kim, Gun-Yeob;Lee, Seul-Bi;Lee, Jong-Sik;Lee, Jung-Hwan;So, Kyu-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.842-847
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    • 2012
  • This study was conducted to estimate the greenhouse gas emissions on local government levels from 1990 to 2010 using 2006 IPCC guideline methodology. To calculate greenhouse gas emissions based on the 16 local governments, emission factor and scaling factor were used with default value and activity data came from the food, agricultural, forestry and fisheries statistical yearbook of MIFAFF (Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries). The total emissions in crop sector gradually decreased from 1990 to 2010 due to a decline in agricultural land and nitrogen fertilizer usage. The annual average emission of greenhouse gas was the highest in Jeonnam (JN) with 1,698 Gg $CO_2$-eq and following Chungnam (CN), Gyungbuk (GB), Jeonbuk (JB) and Gyunggi (GG). The sum of top-six locals emission had occupied 83.4% of the total emission in cropland sector. The annual average emissions in 1990 by applying 2006 IPCC guideline were approximately 43% less than the national greenhouse gas inventory by 1996 IPCC guideline. Jeonnam (JN) province occupied also the highest results of greenhouse gas emission estimated by gas types (methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide) and emission sources such as rice cultivation, agricultural soil, field burning of crop residue and urea fertilizer.

Preliminary Report of Observed Urban - Rural Gradient of Carbon Dioxide Concentration across Seoul, Suwon, and Icheon in South Korea (도시 - 전원간 이산화탄소(CO2) 농도구배 예비관측 결과)

  • Chung, U-Ran;Lee, Kyu-Jong;Lee, Byun-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.268-276
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    • 2007
  • Urban atmosphere may play as a harbinger for the future climate change with respect to temperature and $CO_2$ concentration. The Seoul metropolitan area is unique in rapid urbanization and industrialization during the last several decades, providing a natural $CO_2$ dome with increased temperature. This study was carried out to evaluate the feasibility of using the urban-rural environmental gradient in replacement of the IPCC mid-term scenario (after 30-50 years). For this, we measured atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration and air temperature at three sites with different degree of urbanization (Seoul, Suwon, and Icheon). Results from 11-month measurement can be summarized as follows: (1) The annual mean $CO_2$ concentration across 3 sites was in the order of Seoul (439 ppm) > Suwon (419 ppm) > Icheon (416 ppm), showing a substantial urban-rural environmental gradient. (2) The diurnal fluctuation in $CO_2$ concentration was greater in summer than in winter, showing the effect of photosynthesis on local $CO_2$ concentration. (3) The daily maximum $CO_2$ concentration was observed at 0500 LST in spring and summer, 0800 LST in autumn, and 0900 LST in winter, showing the sunrise-time dependence. (4) The observed hourly maximum $CO_2$ concentration averaged for the whole period was 446 ppm in Seoul at 0700 LST, while the minimum was 407 ppm in Suwon at 1500 LST. (5) Compared with the background atmospheric concentration of $CO_2$ in Anmyeon-do (377.4 ppm annual mean), $CO_2$ concentration of the study sites was higher by 14% in Seoul, by 10% in Suwon, and by 9% in Icheon. The observed $CO_2$ concentration in Seoul reached already 98% of the 2030-2040 projection (450 ppm) and 80% of the 2040-2050 projection (550 ppm) under the IPCC BAU scenario, showing a feasibility of using the $CO_2$ dome of Seoul as a natural experimental setting for the mid-term climate change impact assessment.