• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.75-93
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• 2012

The steel cargoes as the core raw materials for the manufacturing industry have important roles for increasing the handling volume of the port. In particular, steel cargoes are fundamental to vitalize Port of Incheon because they have recognized as the primary key cargo items among the bulk cargoes. In this respect, the IPA(Incheon Port Authority) ambitiously developed the port complex facilities including dedicated terminals and its hinterland in northern part of Incheon. However, these complex area has suffered from low cargo handling records and has faced operational difficulties due to decreased net profits. In general, the import and export steel cargo volumes are sensitively fluctuated followed by internal and external economy index. There is a scant of research for forecasting the steel cargo volume in Incheon port which used in various economy index. To fill the research gap, the aim of this research is to predict the steel cargoes of Port of Incheon using the well established methodology i.e. System Dynamics. As a result, steel cargoes volume dealt with in Incheon port is forecasted from about 8 million tons to about 10 million tons during simulation duration (2011-2020). The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is measured as 0.0013 which verifies the model's accuracy.