• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.139-146
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• 2018

Purpose: IBTR! 2.0 nomogram is web-based nomogram that predicts ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR). We aimed to validate the IBTR! 2.0 using an external data set. Materials and Methods: The cohort consisted of 2,206 patients, who received breast conserving surgery and radiation therapy from 1992 to 2012 at our institution, where wide surgical excision is been routinely performed. Discrimination and calibration were used for assessing model performance. Patients with predicted 10-year IBTR risk based on an IBTR! 2.0 nomogram score of <3%, 3%-5%, 5%-10%, and >10% were assigned to groups 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. We also plotted calibration values to observe the actual IBTR rate against the nomogram-derived 10-year IBTR probabilities. Results: The median follow-up period was 73 months (range, 6 to 277 months). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.607, showing poor accordance between the estimated and observed recurrence rate. Calibration plot confirmed that the IBTR! 2.0 nomogram predicted the 10-year IBTR risk higher than the observed IBTR rates in all groups. High discrepancies between nomogram IBTR predictions and observed IBTR rates were observed in overall risk groups. Compared with the original development dataset, our patients had fewer high grade tumors, less margin positivity, and less lymphovascular invasion, and more use of modern systemic therapies. Conclusions: IBTR! 2.0 nomogram seems to have the moderate discriminative ability with a tendency to over-estimating risk rate. Continued efforts are needed to ensure external applicability of published nomograms by validating the program using an external patient population.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.1-6
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• 2014

Purpose: To evaluate the outcome of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) patients who underwent surgery followed by radiation therapy (RT). Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 106 DCIS patients who underwent surgery followed by postoperative RT between 1994 and 2006. Ninety-four patients underwent breast-conserving surgery, and mastectomy was performed in 12 patients due to extensive DCIS. Postoperative RT was delivered to whole breast with 50.4 Gy/28 fx. Tumor bed boost was offered to 7 patients (6.6%). Patients with hormonal receptor-positive tumors were treated with hormonal therapy. Results: The median follow-up duration was 83.4 months (range, 33.4 to 191.5 months) and the median age was 47.8 years. Ten patients (9.4%) had resection margin <1 mm and high-grade and estrogen receptor-negative tumors were observed in 39 (36.8%) and 20 (18.9%) patients, respectively. The 7-year ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR)-free survival rate was 95.3%. Resection margin (<1 or ${\geq}1$ mm) was the significant prognostic factor for IBTR in univariate and multivariate analyses (p < 0.001 and p = 0.016, respectively). Conclusion: Postoperative RT for DCIS can achieve favorable treatment outcome. Resection margin was the important prognostic factor for IBTR in the DCIS patients who underwent postoperative RT.