• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hypothetical Market

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Modeling Demand for Rural Settlement of Urban Residents (도시민의 농촌이주 수요모형 분석: 정착자금 지원효과를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hee-Chan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.97-110
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this research was to develop a rural settlement demand model to analyze the determinants of settlement demand of urban residents. The point aimed at from model development was deriving stated preference of potential consumers towards rural settlement through setting a hypothetical market, and using settlement subsidy as a surrogate variable for price in the demand model. The adequate demand model deducted from hypothetical market data was derived from the basis of Hanemann's utility difference theory. In the rural settlement demand model, willingness to accept was expressed by a function of settlement subsidy. Data utilized in the analysis was collected from surveys of households nationwide. According to inferred results of the demand model, settlement subsidy had a significant influence on increasing demand for rural settlement. A significant common element was found among variables affecting demand increase through demand curve shift. The majority group of those with high rural settlement demand sought agricultural activity as their main motive, due to harsh urban environments aggravated by unstable job market conditions. Subsequently, restriction of income opportunities in rural areas does not produce an entrance barrier for potential rural settlers. Moreover, this argument could be supported by the common trend of those with high rural settlement demand generally tending to have low incomes. Due to such characteristics of concerned groups of rural settlement demand, they tended to react susceptibly to the subsidy provided by the government and local autonomous entities.

Development and Evaluation of a Portfolio Selection Model and Investment Algorithm in Foreign Exchange Market (외환 시장 포트폴리오 선정 모형과 투자 알고리즘 개발 및 성과평가)

  • Choi, Jaeho;Jung, Jongbin;Kim, Seongmoon
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.83-95
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we develop a portfolio selection model that can be used to invest in markets with margin requirements such as the foreign exchange market. An investment algorithm to implement the proposed portfolio selection model based on objective historical data is also presented. We further conduct empirical analysis on the performance of a hypothetical investment in the foreign exchange market, using the proposed portfolio selection model and investment algorithm. Using 7 currency pairs that recorded the highest trading volume in the foreign exchange market during the most recent 10 years, we compare the performance of 1) the Dollar Index, 2) a 1/N Portfolio which equally allocates capital to all N assets considered for investment, and 3) a hypothetical investment portfolio selected and managed according to the portfolio selection model and investment algorithm proposed in this paper. Performance is compared in terms of accumulated returns and Sharpe ratios for the 10-year period from January 2003 to December 2012. The results show that the hypothetical investment portfolio outperforms both benchmarks, with superior performance especially during the period following financial crisis. Overall, this paper suggests that a mathematical approach for selecting and managing an optimal investment portfolio based on objective data can achieve outstanding performance in the foreign exchange market.

Measuring the Impact of Competition on Pricing Behaviors in a Two-Sided Market

  • Kim, Minkyung;Song, Inseong
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.35-69
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    • 2014
  • The impact of competition on pricing has been studied in the context of counterfactual merger analyses where expected optimal prices in a hypothetical monopoly are compared with observed prices in an oligopolistic market. Such analyses would typically assume static decision making by consumers and firms and thus have been applied mostly to data obtained from consumer packed goods such as cereal and soft drinks. However such static modeling approach is not suitable when decision makers are forward looking. When it comes to the markets for durable products with indirect network effects, consumer purchase decisions and firm pricing decisions are inherently dynamic as they take into account future states when making purchase and pricing decisions. Researchers need to take into account the dynamic aspects of decision making both in the consumer side and in the supplier side for such markets. Firms in a two-sided market typically subsidize one side of the market to exploit the indirect network effect. Such pricing behaviors would be more prevalent in competitive markets where firms would try to win over the battle for standard. While such qualitative expectation on the relationship between pricing behaviors and competitive structures could be easily formed, little empirical studies have measured the extent to which the distinct pricing structure in two-sided markets depends on the competitive structure of the market. This paper develops an empirical model to measure the impact of competition on optimal pricing of durable products under indirect network effects. In order to measure the impact of exogenously determined competition among firms on pricing, we compare the equilibrium prices in the observed oligopoly market to those in a hypothetical monopoly market. In computing the equilibrium prices, we account for the forward looking behaviors of consumers and supplier. We first estimate a demand function that accounts for consumers' forward-looking behaviors and indirect network effects. And then, for the supply side, the pricing equation is obtained as an outcome of the Markov Perfect Nash Equilibrium in pricing. In doing so, we utilize numerical dynamic programming techniques. We apply our model to a data set obtained from the U.S. video game console market. The video game console market is considered a prototypical case of two-sided markets in which the platform typically subsidizes one side of market to expand the installed base anticipating larger revenues in the other side of market resulting from the expanded installed base. The data consist of monthly observations of price, hardware unit sales and the number of compatible software titles for Sony PlayStation and Nintendo 64 from September 1996 to August 2002. Sony PlayStation was released to the market a year before Nintendo 64 was launched. We compute the expected equilibrium price path for Nintendo 64 and Playstation for both oligopoly and for monopoly. Our analysis reveals that the price level differs significantly between two competition structures. The merged monopoly is expected to set prices higher by 14.8% for Sony PlayStation and 21.8% for Nintendo 64 on average than the independent firms in an oligopoly would do. And such removal of competition would result in a reduction in consumer value by 43.1%. Higher prices are expected for the hypothetical monopoly because the merged firm does not need to engage in the battle for industry standard. This result is attributed to the distinct property of a two-sided market that competing firms tend to set low prices particularly at the initial period to attract consumers at the introductory stage and to reinforce their own networks and eventually finally to dominate the market.

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Market Structure Analysis of Automobile Market in U.S.A (미국자동차시장의 구조분석)

  • Choi, In-Hye;Lee, Seo-Goo;Yi, Seong-Keun
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.141-156
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    • 2008
  • Market structure analysis is a very useful tool to analyze the competition boundary of the brand or the company. But most of the studies in market structure analysis, the concern lies in nondurable goods such as candies, soft drink and etc. because of the their availability of the data. In the field of durable goods, the limitation of the data availability and the repurchase time period constrain the study. In the analysis of the automobile market, those of views might be more persuasive. The purpose of this study is to analyze the structure of automobile market based on some idea suggested by prior studies. Usually the buyers of the automobile tend to buy upper tier when they buy in the next time. That kind of behavior make it impossible to analyze the structure of automobile market under the level of automobile model. For that reason I tried to analyze the market structure in the brand or company level. In this study, consideration data was used for market structure analysis. The reasons why we used the consideration data are summarized as following. Firstly, as the repurchase time cycle is too long, brand switching data which is used for the market analysis of nondurable good is not avaliable. Secondly, as we mentioned, the buyers of the automobile tend to buy upper tier when they buy in the next time. We used survey data collected in the U.S.A. market in the year of 2005 through questionaire. The sample size was 8,291. The number of brand analyzed in this study was 9 among 37 which was being sold in U.S.A. market. Their market share was around 50%. The brands considered were BMW, Chevrolet, Chrysler, Dodge, Ford, Honda, Mercedes, and Toyota. �� ratio was derived from frequency of the consideration set. Actually the frequency is different from the brand switch concept. In this study to compute the �� ratio, the frequency of the consideration set was used like a frequency of brand switch for convenience. The study can be divided into 2 steps. The first step is to build hypothetical market structures. The second step is to choose the best structure based on the hypothetical market structures, Usually logit analysis is used for the choice best structure. In this study we built 3 hypothetical market structure. They are type-cost, cost-type, and unstructured. We classified the automobile into 5 types, sedan, SUV(Sport Utility Vehicle), Pickup, Mini Van, and Full-size Van. As for purchasing cost, we classified it 2 groups based on the median value. The median value was $28,800. To decide best structure among them, maximum likelihood test was used. Resulting from market structure analysis, we find that the automobile market of USA is hierarchically structured in the form of 'automobile type - purchasing cost'. That is, result showed that automobile buyers considered function or usage first and purchasing cost next. This study has some limitations in the analysis level and variable selection. First, in this study only type of the automobile and purchasing cost were as attributes considered for purchase. Considering other attributes is very needful. Because of the attributes considered, only 3 hypothetical structure could be analyzed. Second, due to the data, brand level analysis was tried. But model level analysis would be better because automobile buyers consider model not brand. To conduct model level study more cases should be obtained. That is for acquiring the better practical meaning, brand level analysis should be conducted when we consider the actual competition which occurred in the real market. Third, the variable selection for building nested logit model was very limited to some avaliable data. In spite of those limitations, the importance of this study lies in the trial of market structure analysis of durable good.

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Consequentiality and Hypothetical Bias in Contingent Valuation Method: An Experimental Investigation (가상가치평가법에서의 결과수렴성과 가상편의)

  • Lee, Jinkwon;Hwang, Uk
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2020
  • While contingent valuation method (CVM) has been widely used for non-market valuations, it has been argued that it may suffer from hypothetical bias. However, if CVM respondents believe that their responses could affect the real consequence, the method could satisfy consequentiality. If a CVM satisfies a sufficiently high consequentiality, hypothetical bias could disappear as shown by some previous studies. In this study, we experimentally compare the willingness to pay (WTP) for donation of a relatively high consequentiality group with that of a relatively low consequentiality group for Korean university students. We find that both the existence probability and the size of hypothetical bias are lower for the high consequentiality group. This result implies that a CVM for a real policy including environmental policies could be free from hypothetical bias because its consequentiality would be relatively high, and warrants a future field study investigating the effect of consequentiality on hypothetical bias.

Valuation of Use Value on Environmental Goods (환경자원의 이용가치 평가)

  • 박용치
    • Survey Research
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.83-107
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    • 2001
  • The contingent valuation method uses survey questions to elicit people's preferences for public goods by finding out what they would be willing to pay for specified improvement in them. The method is thus aimed at eliciting their willingness to pay in money amounts. It circumvents the absence of markets for public goods by presenting consumers with hypothetical markets in which they have the opportunities to buy the good In question. The hypothetical markets may be modeled after either a private goods market or a political market. Respondents are presented with material, often in the course of a personal interview conducted face to face. An on-site survey was conducted to 1107 randomly selected P-mountain users using a dichotomous choice questionnaire for the contingent valuation method. Seventeen different bid sets were chosen ranging from the lowest bid of 300won to the highest bid of 2, 100won to elicit a reasonable entrance fee in the hypothetical market. The probability of an individual user's willingness to pay for the suggested bid had been determined, and the expected value of willingness to pay was estimated using binary-1ogit model. The average public value of P-mountain per individual user was estimated to be 1,055.92won ~ 1,995.61won according to the binary-logit model. The economic value of this P-mountain which includes both use value and existence value can be determined by aggregating the average value giving total willingness to pay for the entire population, in this case 5.491 billion ~ 10.377 billion.

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A Study on the Market Structure Analysis for Durable Goods Using Consideration Set:An Exploratory Approach for Automotive Market (고려상표군을 이용한 내구재 시장구조 분석에 관한 연구: 자동차 시장에 대한 탐색적 분석방법)

  • Lee, Seokoo
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.157-176
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    • 2012
  • Brand switching data frequently used in market structure analysis is adequate to analyze non- durable goods, because it can capture competition between specific two brands. But brand switching data sometimes can not be used to analyze goods like automobiles having long term duration because one of main assumptions that consumer preference toward brand attributes is not changed against time can be violated. Therefore a new type of data which can precisely capture competition among durable goods is needed. Another problem of using brand switching data collected from actual purchase behavior is short of explanation why consumers consider different set of brands. Considering above problems, main purpose of this study is to analyze market structure for durable goods with consideration set. The author uses exploratory approach and latent class clustering to identify market structure based on heterogeneous consideration set among consumers. Then the relationship between some factors and consideration set formation is analyzed. Some benefits and two demographic variables - age and income - are selected as factors based on consumer behavior theory. The author analyzed USA automotive market with top 11 brands using exploratory approach and latent class clustering. 2,500 respondents are randomly selected from the total sample and used for analysis. Six models concerning market structure are established to test. Model 1 means non-structured market and model 6 means market structure composed of six sub-markets. It is exploratory approach because any hypothetical market structure is not defined. The result showed that model 1 is insufficient to fit data. It implies that USA automotive market is a structured market. Model 3 with three market structures is significant and identified as the optimal market structure in USA automotive market. Three sub markets are named as USA brands, Asian Brands, and European Brands. And it implies that country of origin effect may exist in USA automotive market. Comparison between modal classification by derived market structures and probabilistic classification by research model was conducted to test how model 3 can correctly classify respondents. The model classify 97% of respondents exactly. The result of this study is different from those of previous research. Previous research used confirmatory approach. Car type and price were chosen as criteria for market structuring and car type-price structure was revealed as the optimal structure for USA automotive market. But this research used exploratory approach without hypothetical market structures. It is not concluded yet which approach is superior. For confirmatory approach, hypothetical market structures should be established exhaustively, because the optimal market structure is selected among hypothetical structures. On the other hand, exploratory approach has a potential problem that validity for derived optimal market structure is somewhat difficult to verify. There also exist market boundary difference between this research and previous research. While previous research analyzed seven car brands, this research analyzed eleven car brands. Both researches seemed to represent entire car market, because cumulative market shares for analyzed brands exceeds 50%. But market boundary difference might affect the different results. Though both researches showed different results, it is obvious that country of origin effect among brands should be considered as important criteria to analyze USA automotive market structure. This research tried to explain heterogeneity of consideration sets among consumers using benefits and two demographic factors, sex and income. Benefit works as a key variable for consumer decision process, and also works as an important criterion in market segmentation. Three factors - trust/safety, image/fun to drive, and economy - are identified among nine benefit related measure. Then the relationship between market structures and independent variables is analyzed using multinomial regression. Independent variables are three benefit factors and two demographic factors. The result showed that all independent variables can be used to explain why there exist different market structures in USA automotive market. For example, a male consumer who perceives all benefits important and has lower income tends to consider domestic brands more than European brands. And the result also showed benefits, sex, and income have an effect to consideration set formation. Though it is generally perceived that a consumer who has higher income is likely to purchase a high priced car, it is notable that American consumers perceived benefits of domestic brands much positive regardless of income. Male consumers especially showed higher loyalty for domestic brands. Managerial implications of this research are as follow. Though implication may be confined to the USA automotive market, the effect of sex on automotive buying behavior should be analyzed. The automotive market is traditionally conceived as male consumers oriented market. But the proportion of female consumers has grown over the years in the automotive market. It is natural outcome that Volvo and Hyundai motors recently developed new cars which are targeted for women market. Secondly, the model used in this research can be applied easier than that of previous researches. Exploratory approach has many advantages except difficulty to apply for practice, because it tends to accompany with complicated model and to require various types of data. The data needed for the model in this research are a few items such as purchased brands, consideration set, some benefits, and some demographic factors and easy to collect from consumers.

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Characteristics of the Library Services Market (도서관 서비스 시장의 특성)

  • Kim, Giyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.183-197
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this conceptual paper is to identify the library services market and its characteristics versus the common commodity market so that marketing and management in library services can be more fruitful in terms of research and development. Based on the developed hypothetical market, a library services market is identified; the market is then characterized in comparison to the common commodity market using three theoretical characteristics of the library services market: indirect exchange, limited competition, and time-lagging exchange. Based on these characteristics, two possible research directions are suggested: development of goals for library management and consideration of applications in library marketing.

Economic Feasibility of a Hypothetical Shrimp Farm a Combination of Semi-Closed Raceways and Ponds (시범 새우양식장의 경제적 타당성 연구)

  • 이재후
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.85-97
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    • 1982
  • This study involves a blending of intensive and extensive shrimp culture techniques for a hypothetical shrimp farm which uses a combination of heated raceway nurseries and extensive grow-out ponds per year. The present value method of economic analysis is used to determine economic feasibility. The biological data in this reports were obtained from published or personal communications from leaders in the field of shrimp aquaculture. The proposed system showed economic feasibility using the present value method with discount rates of 10% and 12%. The most profitable scenario, the culture of three crops of Penaeus vannamei showed a 1.26 year payback period and 120% annual average rate of return. The breakeven price was $1.25/1b., which is $1.52 less than the market price of $2.77. Breakeven production was 724 1bs/acre, which is 8761bs. less than the assumed 1,600 1bs/acre. All other scenarios 1.2 and 3 crops for P. stylirostris and P. setiferus showed economic feasibility also.

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How Korean Retailers Expand Private Label Markets Abroad: Evidence from the Chinese Fresh Food Market

  • Jing-Jing Yang;Tae-Won Kang
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.106-124
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - The increasing share of Korean private label products (PLPs) in the domestic market helped generate lucrative revenue. In recent years, major South Korean retailers have begun to cast their sights on overseas markets and actively export their PLPs. In China, the proportion of private label fresh food (PLFF) is gradually expanding amid the development of the new retailing model. A profound understanding of the relationship between private label fresh produce and purchase intention may be the answer to helping Chinese retailer private labels expand supply chains in Korea. This study, taking Chinese retailers as an example, examines the impacts of selection factors of private label fresh food and perceived value on purchase intention. Apart from that, the relationship between the selection factors and purchase intention will be analyzed with perceived value as a mediator. Design/methodology - This work aims to empirically analyze the purchase intention of private label fresh food using statistical analysis. In this study, a hypothetical causal model consisting of 6 latent variables and 24 measured variables is developed based on the literature review. To validate the research hypotheses and the research model, SPSS23.0/AMOS23.0 is used to analyze factors such as validity and reliability, as well as structural equation modeling. Findings - The hypothetical model established in this study is of general applicability. In respect to PLFF, perceived value, while significantly influencing purchase intention in combination with four selection factors (perceived quality, perceived price, brand trust, and store image), mediates partially between the first three factors and purchase intention, which rules out the impact and mediating effect of store image on purchase intention. Originality/value - These research results, as helpful insights into the present circumstances of Chinese PLFF in the domestic market, provide useful information and guidance for Korean retailers and service providers to innovate production and service, as well as develop marketing and promotion strategies, so that they can shift private label goods with advantages from domestic demand to export, thus increasing overseas profitability. Further, this work will also contribute to relevant research.