• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.172-177
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• 2012

In areas around Deoksan Li and Deokjeon Li, Inje Eup, Inje Gun, located between $38^{\circ}2^{\prime}55^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$ and $38^{\circ}5^{\prime}50^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$ in latitude and $128^{\circ}11^{\prime}20^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$ and $128^{\circ}18^{\prime}20^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$ in longitude, large-sized avalanche disasters occurred due to Typhoon Ewiniar in 2006. As a result, 29 people were dead or missing, along with a total of 37.25 billion won of financial loss(Gangwon Province, 2006). To evaluate such landslide and debris flow risk areas and their vulnerability, this study applied a technique called 'Weight of Evidence' based on GIS. Especially based on the overlay analysis of aerial images before the occurrence of landslides and debris flows in 2005 and after 2006, this study extracted 475 damage-occurrence areas in a shape of point, and established a DB by using such factors as topography, hydrologic, soil and forest physiognomy through GIS. For the prediction diagram of debris flow and landslide risk areas, this study calculated W+ and W-, the weighted values of each factor of Weight Evidence, while overlaying the weighted values of factors. Besides, the diagram showed about 76% in prediction accuracy, and it was also found to have a relatively high correlationship with the areas where such natural disasters actually occurred.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.6B
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• pp.561-569
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• 2010

In this study, the impact of climate change on extreme drought events is investigated by comparing drought severity-area-duration curves under present and future climate. The depth-area-duration analysis for characterizing an extreme precipitation event provides a basis for analysing drought events when storm depth is replaced by an appropriate measure of drought severity. In our climate-change impact experiments, the future monthly precipitation time series is based on a KMA regional climate model which has a $27km{\times}27km$ spatial resolution, and the drought severity is computed using the standardized precipitation index. As a result, agricultural drought risk is likely to increase especially in short duration, while hydrologic drought risk will greatly increase in all durations. Such results indicate that a climate change vulnerability assessment for present water resources supply system is urgent.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.45 no.6
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• pp.109-118
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• 2003

As a fundamental research to establish a safety operation plan for irrigation dams, this study presents hydrologic analysis conducted in Sungju Dam watershed based on various rainfall data. Especially those reservoirs without flood control feature are widely exposed to the risk of flooding, a safe and optimized operation program need to be improved against arbitrary flooding. In this study, reservoir routing program was developed and simulated for reservoir runoff estimation using WMS hydrology model. The model simulated the variations of reservoir elevation under the condition of open or closed emergency gate. In case of closed emergency gate, water surface elevation was given as 193.15 m, and this value exceeds the dam crest height by 1.65 m. When the emergency gate is open, the increment of water surface elevation is given as 192.01 m, and this value exceeds dam crest height by 0.57 m. As an alternative plan, dam height increase can be considered for flood control under the PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation) condition. Since the dam size is relatively small compare to the watershed area, sound protection can be expected from the latter option rather than emergency gate installation.

• KCID journal
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.105-114
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• 2010

Tidal land reclamation provided water resources and land for agriculture and contributed stable crop production. However, climate change by global warming disrupts the hydrologic circulatory system of the earth resulting in sea level rise and more frequent flood for reclaimed arable land. Recently, Suyu reclaimed paddy field in Jindo-gun experienced prolonged inundation after heavy rainfall and there is a growing risk of flood damage. Onsite survey and flood analysis using GATE_Pro model of Korea Rural Corporation were conducted to investigate causes of flooding. To perform the analysis, input data such as inflow hydrograph, the lowest elevation of paddy field, neap tide level, management level of Gunnae estuary lake at the time of the flood were collected. Flood analysis confirmed that current drainage facilities are not enough to prevent 20year return period flood. The result of analysis showed flooding more than 24hours. Therefore, flood mitigation alternatives such as sluice gate expansion, installation drainage pumping station, refill paddy land, and catch canal were studied. Replacing drainage culvert of Suyu dike to sluice gate and installing drainage pumping station at the Gunne lake were identified as an effective flood control measures. Furthermore, TM/TC (SCADA) system and expert for gate management are required for the better management of drainage for estuary dam and flood mitigation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2004.05b
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• pp.863-869
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• 2004

댐의 수리${\cdot}$수문학적 월류 확률 추정시에 가장 민감한 불확실성 변량은 댐의 초기수위라 할 수 있으며, 특히 자료의 특성을 충분히 반영하고 댐마루(dam crest)의 높이를 초과하지 않으면서 경계를 갖는 분포형을 추정하는 것은 무엇보다 중요하다. 그러나 기존의 매개변수적 확률분포 추정방법으로 이러한 문제점을 적절히 반영할 수 없으며 통계특성을 반영하지 못하고 이상화시키는 단점이 있다. 이러한 문제점을 보완하기 위해서 비매개변수적 핵밀도함수 방법과 Bootstrap 기법을 적용하여 수위의 신뢰구간을 추정하였다. 연 최대치 자료를 이용한 비매개변수적 핵밀도함수 기법을 이용한 해석결과에서는 댐의 설계빈도를 상회하는 비교적 큰 위험도 나타냈으며 홍수기의 평상수위고 가정하는 Bootstrap Resampling을 적용한 위험도는 5.11E-06의 간을 나타났다. 가장 극심한 기상상태를 가정한 해석 결과인 1.1972E-03은 본 댐은 여수로의 설계빈도가 1,000년 빈도로서 설계당시보다 확률수문량이 크게 증가된 현재 여수로 방류능력 및 안전성 상태로 고려해보면 적당한 위험도 값으로 추정된다.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.56 no.2
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• pp.11-23
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• 2014

The impact and adaption on agricultural water resources considering climate change is significant for reservoirs. The change in rainfall patterns and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the uncertainty of agricultural water supply and demand. The quantitative evaluation method of uncertainty based on agricultural water resource management under future climate conditions is a major concern. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the vulnerability management technique for agricultural water supply based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory. The objective of this study was to analyse the uncertainty of water resources under future climate change using probability distribution function of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. The uncertainty of future water resources in agricultural reservoirs was estimated using the time-specific analysis of histograms and probability distributions parameter, for example the location and the scale parameter. According to the uncertainty analysis, the future agricultural water supply and demand in reservoir tends to increase the uncertainty by the low consistency of the results. Thus, it is recommended to prepare a resonable decision making on water supply strategies in terms of using climate change scenarios that reflect different future development conditions.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.105-105
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• 2017

최근 우리나라에서는 국지성호우로 인해 발생하는 돌발홍수에 방어하지 못하는 소규모 저수지에 대한 붕괴사고가 빈발하고 있다. 붕괴된 저수지를 살펴보면, 대체적으로 규모가 작아 체계적인 안전관리가 이루어지지 않거나 경과연수가 50년 이상인 필댐(fill dam) 형식으로 축조된 노후저수지로서 갑작스러운 홍수를 대응하는데 있어 매우 취약한 상태이다. 체계적으로 운영되는 대형댐에 비해 축조기간이 오래된 소규모 저수지의 경우, 저수지에 대한 수문학적 정보가 거의 없거나 미계측되어 보수보강이 필요한 저수지를 선정하거나 정량적인 위험도를 분석하는데 매우 어려운 실정이다. 이러한 이유로 본 연구에서는 노후된 소규모 저수지에 대한 수문학적 파괴인자들을 선정하여 Bayesian Network기반의 소규모 저수지 위험도 분석 모형을 구축하였다. 구축된 모형을 기준으로 고려될 수 있는 다양한 위험인자 및 이들 인자간의 연관성을 평가하였으며, 각각의 노드에 파괴인자를 노드로 할당하여 소규모 저수지의 위험도를 분석하였다. Bayesian Network기법의 도입으로 불확실한 상황을 확률로 표시하고, 복잡한 추론을 정량화된 노드의 관계로 단순화시켜 노드의 연결 관계로 표현하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 모형은 노후된 소규모 저수지의 수문학적 위험도를 정량으로 분석하는 모형으로서 활용성이 높을 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.6 no.3 s.22
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• pp.69-76
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• 2006

An hydraulic and hydrologic analysis procedure was proposed to reduce the inundation damage of highway in urban stream, that could contribute the EAP and Traffic control planning of Dongbu highway in the Jungrang stream basin which is one of the representative urban area in Korea. We performed the HEC-HMS runoff analysis, and the UNET unsteady flow modeling to decide the inundation reaches and their characteristics. The high inundation risk areas were of Emoon railway bridge and the Wollueng bridge, which are inundated in the case of 10 year and 20 year frequency flood respectively. We also analyze the inundation characteristics under the various conditions of the accumulation rainfall and the duration. Flood elevation at the Wolgye-1 bridge exceed over Risk Flood Water Level(EL.17.84 m) when the accumulation rainfall is over 250 mm and shorter duration than 7 hr. When neglecting backwater effect from the Han river, inundation risk are highly at the reach C2(Wolgye-1 br. ${\sim}$Jungrang br., left bank), C1(Wolgye-1 br. ${\sim}$Jungrang br., right bank), D(Jungrang br. ${\sim}$Gunja br.) in order, but when consider the effect, the inundation risk are higher than the others at the reach D2(Jungrang br. ${\sim}$Gunja br., left bank) and E(Gunja br. ${\sim}$Yongbi br.), which are located downstream near confluence.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.51-65
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• 2010

We suggest a simple and practical flood forecasting and warning system, which can predict change in the water level of a river in a small to medium-size watershed where flash flooding occurs in a short time. We first choose the flood defense target points, through evaluation of the flood risk of dike overflow and lowland inundation. Using data on rainfall, and on the water levels at the observed and prediction points, we investigate the interrelations and derive a regression formula from which we can predict the flood level at the target points. We calculate flood water levels through a calibrated flood simulation model for various rainfall scenarios, to overcome the shortage of real water stage data, and these results as basic population data are used to derive a regression formula. The values calculated from the regression formula are modified by the weather condition factor, and the system can finally predict the flood stages at the target points for every leading time. We also investigate the applicability of the prediction procedure for real flood events of the Jungnang Stream basin, and find the forecasting values to have close agreement with the surveyed data. We therefore expect that this suggested warning scheme could contribute usefully to the setting up of a flood forecasting and warning system for a small to medium-size river basin.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.29-41
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• 2017

Design rainfalls are one of the most important hydrologic data for river management, hydraulic structure design and risk analysis. The design rainfalls are first estimated by a point frequency analysis and the IDF (intensity-duration-frequency) curve is then constructed by a nonlinear regression to either interpolate or extrapolate the design rainfalls for other durations which are not used in the frequency analysis. It has been widely recognised that the more reliable approaches are required to better account for uncertainties associated with the model parameters under circumstances where limited hydrologic data are available for the watershed of interest. For these reasons, this study developed a hierarchical Bayesian based GLM (generalized linear model) for a regional frequency analysis in conjunction with a scaling function of the parameters in probability distribution. The proposed model provided a reliable estimation of a set of parameters for each individual station, as well as offered a regional estimate of the parameters, which allow us to have a regional IDF curve. Overall, we expected the proposed model can be used for different aspects of water resources planning at various stages and in addition for the ungaged basin.