• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2005년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.792-796
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• 2005

The methods of times series analysis have been recognized as important tools for assisting in solving problems related to the management of water resources. Especially, After more than 40 years the so-called Hurst effect remains an open problem in stochastic hydrology. Until now, its existence has been explained fly R/S analysis that roots in early work of the British hydrologist H.E. Hurst(1951). Today, the Hurst analysis is mostly used for the hydrological studies for memory and characteristics of time series and many methodologies have been developed for the analysis. So, there are many different techniques for the estimation of the Hurst exponent(H). However, the techniques can produce different characteristics for the persistence of a time series each other. We found that DFA is the most appropriate technique for the Hurst exponent estimation for both the shot term memory and long term memory. We analyze the SOI(Southern Oscillations Index) and 6 tree-ring series for USA sites by means of DFA and the BDS statistic is used for nonlinearity test of the series. From the results, we found that SOI series is nonlinear time series which has a long term memory of H=0.92. Contrary to earlier work of Rao(1999), all the tree- ring series are not random from our analysis. A certain tree ring series show a long term memory of H=0.97 and nonlinear property. Therefore, we can say that the SOI and tree-ring series may show long memory and nonlinearity.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.295-304
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• 2015

This paper considers the problem of estimation of the Hurst parameter H ${\in}$ (1/2, 1) from longitudinal data with the error term of a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H that gives the amount of the long memory of its increment. We provide a new estimator of Hurst parameter H using a two scale sampling method based on $A{\ddot{i}}t$-Sahalia and Jacod (2009). Asymptotic behaviors (consistent and central limit theorem) of the proposed estimator will be investigated. For the proof of a central limit theorem, we use recent results on necessary and sufficient conditions for multi-dimensional vectors of multiple stochastic integrals to converges in distribution to multivariate normal distribution studied by Nourdin et al. (2010), Nualart and Ortiz-Latorre (2008), and Peccati and Tudor (2005).

• 재무관리연구
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.63-89
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• 2007

본 연구는 금융시계열자료의 특징적 속성을 관찰하고자 하는 연구시도의 일환으로, 실제자료 뿐만 아니라 이론자료를 이용하여 장기기억속성의 존재와 장기기억속성의 정도에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 가능한 요인을 수익률 및 변동성차원에서 체계적으로 검증하는 것이 목적이다. 검증결과의 견고함을 위하여, 이론자료 뿐만 아니라 24개국 주식시장의 지수자료, KOSPI 시장지수를 구성하는 430개 개별주식자료를 함께 사용하였다. 관찰된 검증결과를 요약 정리하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 이론자료와 실제자료를 이용하여 장기기억속성의 존재여부를 체계적으로 검증한 결과에 의하면, 분석자료에 관계없이 수익률차원에서는 장기기억속성의 존재를 확인할 수 있는 긍정적인 증거를 발견하지 못하였으나, 변동성차원에서는 강한 장기기억속성의 증거를 지지하는 증거를 발견할 수 있었다. 둘째, 관찰된 변동성의 장기기억속성 정도에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 가능한 요인으로는, 분석자료에 관계없이, 금융시계열자료에서 일반적으로 관찰되는 변동성 군집효과의 속성이 가능한 것으로 확인되었다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제24권5호
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• pp.481-492
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• 2017

This paper investigates a convergence rate of a test statistics given by two scale sampling method based on $A\ddot{i}t$-Sahalia and Jacod (Annals of Statistics, 37, 184-222, 2009). This statistics tests for longitudinal data having the existence of long memory dependence driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H{\in}(1/2,\;1)$. We obtain an upper bound in the Kolmogorov distance for normal approximation of this test statistic. As a main tool for our works, the recent results in Nourdin and Peccati (Probability Theory and Related Fields, 145, 75-118, 2009; Annals of Probability, 37, 2231-2261, 2009) will be used. These results are obtained by employing techniques based on the combination between Malliavin calculus and Stein's method for normal approximation.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제37권12호
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• pp.993-1007
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• 2004

허스트 지수를 산정하기 위하여 기존에 여러 방법론들이 제안되어 왔다. 그러나, 이들 방법론들은 시계열들의 지속성에 대하여 각기 다른 특성들을 보이고 있음을 기존의 연구에서 알 수 있다 따라서 본 연구에서는 수문학에서 주로 이용하고 있는 보정용량, 조정용량, 수정조정용량 방법 이외에 생리학 분야와 전자 분야 등에서 이용되고 있는 1/f 파워 스펙트럼 밀도 분석, DFA, AVT 방법, 최우도법 등을 이용하여 허스트 지수를 산정하여 보았다. 즉, 단기간과 장기간 기억을 가진 카오스와 추계학적 시계열들에 대하여 각각의 방법들을 적용하여 비교 분석하고자 하였으며, 각 방법론들에 대한 장점 및 단점 그리고 한계에 대하여 논의하였다.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 1998년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.271-274
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• 1998

In this paper we examine long-term memory of the financial time-series by employing the R/S analysis, the Hurst exponent estimation, and the modified R/S analysis. The null hypothesis of white-noise is tested using the NYSE daily indexes from January 1966 to July 1998, and the results show that long-range dependence exists before the apparent structural break of the Black Monday in 1987.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.1-17
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• 2014

In this study, various characteristics of R&D related economic variables were studied to analyze complexity of science and technology activities in Korea, as reliance of R&D activities of the private sector is growing by the day. In comparison to other countries, this means that it is likely to be fluctuated by economic conditions. This complexity characteristic signifies that the result of science and technology activities can be greatly different from the anticipated results - depending on the influences from economic conditions and the results of science and technology activities which may be unpredictable. After reviewing the results of 17 variables related to science and technology characteristics of complex systems intended for time-series data - in the total R&D expenditure, and private R&D expenditure, numbers of SCI papers, the existence of chaotic characteristics were. using Lyapunov Exponent, Hurst Exponent, BDS test. This result reveals science and technology activity of the three most important components in Korea which are; heavy dependence on initial condition, the long term memory of time series, and non-linear structure. As stable R&D investment and result are needed in order to maintain steady development of Korea economy, the R&D structure should be less influenced by business cycles and more effective technology development policy for improving human resource development must be set in motion. And to minimize the risk of new technology, the construction of sophisticated technology forecasting system should take into account, for development of R&D system.

• 천문학회보
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.40.1-40.1
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• 2011

Large solar flares are associated with various aspects of space weather effects. Numerous attempts have been made to predict when the solar flare will be occurred mainly based on the configuration of the magnetic field of its flaring site. We analyze the time series of f/g which indicates a representative measure of the sunspot complexity to see whether it shows a possibility to be predicted without huge amounts of observation. Two kinds of analysis results are presented. One is from its power spectrum giving that there's no significantly persistent periodicity within a few days. Its de-trended fluctuation shows the Hurst exponent larger than 0.5 implying that the f/g time series has a long-term memory in time scales less than 10 days.