• Title/Summary/Keyword: Historical Price Convergence

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Early Globalization and the Law of One Price: Evidence from Sweden, 1732-1914

  • Crucini, Mario J.;Smith, Gregor W.
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.427-445
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    • 2016
  • We review research using departures from the law of one price to measure the advent of globalization in Europe and Asia. In an application, we then study the role of distance and time in statistically explaining price dispersion across 32 Swedish towns for 19 commodities from 1732 to 1914. The resulting large number of relative prices (502,689) allows precise estimation of distance and time effects, and their interaction. We find an effect of distance that declines significantly over time, beginning in the 18th century, well before the arrival of canals, the telegraph, or the railway.

KOSPI index prediction using topic modeling and LSTM

  • Jin-Hyeon Joo;Geun-Duk Park
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2024
  • In this paper, we proposes a method to improve the accuracy of predicting the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) by combining topic modeling and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks. In this paper, we use the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) technique to extract ten major topics related to interest rate increases and decreases from financial news data. The extracted topics, along with historical KOSPI index data, are input into an LSTM model to predict the KOSPI index. The proposed model has the characteristic of predicting the KOSPI index by combining the time series prediction method by inputting the historical KOSPI index into the LSTM model and the topic modeling method by inputting news data. To verify the performance of the proposed model, this paper designs four models (LSTM_K model, LSTM_KNS model, LDA_K model, LDA_KNS model) based on the types of input data for the LSTM and presents the predictive performance of each model. The comparison of prediction performance results shows that the LSTM model (LDA_K model), which uses financial news topic data and historical KOSPI index data as inputs, recorded the lowest RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), demonstrating the best predictive performance.

A Multiple Variable Regression-based Approaches to Long-term Electricity Demand Forecasting

  • Ngoc, Lan Dong Thi;Van, Khai Phan;Trang, Ngo-Thi-Thu;Choi, Gyoo Seok;Nguyen, Ha-Nam
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2021
  • Electricity contributes to the development of the economy. Therefore, forecasting electricity demand plays an important role in the development of the electricity industry in particular and the economy in general. This study aims to provide a precise model for long-term electricity demand forecast in the residential sector by using three independent variables include: Population, Electricity price, Average annual income per capita; and the dependent variable is yearly electricity consumption. Based on the support of Multiple variable regression, the proposed method established a model with variables that relate to the forecast by ignoring variables that do not affect lead to forecasting errors. The proposed forecasting model was validated using historical data from Vietnam in the period 2013 and 2020. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, we presents a five-year demand forecast for the residential sector in Vietnam. When demand forecasts are performed using the predicted variables, the R square value measures model fit is up to 99.6% and overall accuracy (MAPE) of around 0.92% is obtained over the period 2018-2020. The proposed model indicates the population's impact on total national electricity demand.

A Study on the Costumes for the Crown Prince Based on the Picture for School Entrance Ceremony in 1817 (1817년 효명세자 입학례의 왕세자 복식 고증)

  • Son, Yun Hye;Lee, Eun Joo
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.188-207
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    • 2013
  • This study looks at the costumes for the crown prince based on the Hyomyeong of 1817, a collection of the National Research Institute of Cultural Heritage. The picture of School Entrance Ceremony of the Crown Prince (王世子入學圖) does not have the crown prince in the scene. However, it can be verified through literature that there are three different costumes for the ceremony. Chulgungui(出宮儀), the ceremony's first procedure, describes the departure of the prince crown from his residence toward Sungkyunkwan (成均館) with his escorting officials. The Crown Prince wears Seoyeonbok (書筵服) during this event. When the Crown Prince arrives at Sungkyunkwan, he participates in a series of ceremonies that consist of Jackhunui (酌獻儀), Wangbokui (往復儀), Supeiui (脩弊儀), and Ipackui (入學儀). At that time, he wears a confucian scholar's uniform. After returning from Sungkyunkwan, he attends Suhaui (受賀儀), the final procedure of the Crown Prince's School Entrance, at Simindang (詩敏堂) of Changgyong Palace(昌慶宮), At this time, the price crown wears Wonyukwanbok (遠遊冠服) as he is congratulated by royal family members and high ranking officials for his entrance to Sungkyunkwan in this ceremony. This point hereby concludes this study on the historical costumes for the prince crown based on the Hyomyeong Crown Prince's School Entrance in 1817.