• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.60-74
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• 2017

To facilitate prevention of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), a GIS is widely used for monitoring, investigating epidemics, managing HPAI-infected farms, and eradicating the disease. After the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in 2010 and 2011, the government of the Republic of Korea (ROK) established the GIS-based Korean Animal Health Integrated System (KAHIS) to avert livestock epidemics, including HPAI. However, the KAHIS is not sufficient for controlling HPAI outbreaks due to lack of responsibility in fieldwork, such as sterilization of HPAI-infected poultry farms and regions, control of infected animal movement, and implementation of an eradication strategy. An outbreak prediction model to support efficient HPAI control in the ROK is proposed here, constructed via analysis of HPAI outbreak patterns in the ROK. The results show that 82% of HPAI outbreaks occurred in Jeolla and Chungcheong Provinces. The density of poultry farms in these regions were $2.2{\pm}1.1/km^2$ and $4.2{\pm}5.6/km^2$, respectively. In addition, reared animal numbers ranged between 6,537 and 24,250 individuals in poultry farms located in HPAI outbreak regions. Following identification of poultry farms in HPAI outbreak regions, an HPAI outbreak prediction model was designed using factors such as the habitat range for migratory birds(HMB), freshwater system characteristics, and local road networks. Using these factors, poultry farms which reared 6,500-25,000 individuals were filtered and compared with number of farms actually affected by HPAI outbreaks in the ROK. The HPAI prediction model shows that 90.0% of the number of poultry farms and 54.8% of the locations of poultry farms overlapped between an actual HPAI outbreak poultry farms reported in 2014 and poultry farms estimated by HPAI outbreak prediction model in the present study. These results clearly show that the HPAI outbreak prediction model is applicable for estimating HPAI outbreak regions in ROK.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.186-198
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• 2016

HPAI(Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) is a contagious animal disease that spreads rapidly by diffusion after the first occurrence. The disease has brought tremendous social costs and economic losses. KAHIS (Korea Animal Health Information System) is the integrated system for supporting the task of preventing epidemics. They provide decision-support information, recording vehicle visiting times and facility location, etc., which is possible by enforcing registration of all livestock related facilities and vehicles. KAHIS has accumulated spatial and temporal information that enables effective tracing of potential disease trajectories and diffusion through vehicle movements. The contact network is created utilizing spatial and temporal information in KAHIS to inform facility connection via vehicle visitation. Based on the contact network, it is possible to infer spatial and temporal mechanism of disease spread and diffusion. The study objective is to empirically demonstrate how to utilize primary spatial and temporal information in KAHIS in the form of the contact network. Based on the contact network, facilities with the possibility of infection can be pinpointed within the potential spatial and temporal extent where the disease has spread and diffused. This aids the decision-making process in the task of preventing epidemics. By interpreting our demonstration results, policy implications were presented. Finally, some suggestions were made to comprehensively utilize the contact network to draw enhanced decision-support information.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.114-126
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• 2016

Domestic risk factors that are thought to be correlated with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak are migratory birds and moving objects such as poultry farm vehicles. In particular, the commercial vehicles that routinely circulate the local and/or remote poultry farms produce are thought to be major HPAI risk factors in South Korea. In this study, the driving histories of the vehicles belonging to poultry farms and/or commercial companies registered in the Korea Animal Integrated System (KAHIS) were analyzed using statistical and social networking tools in a Geographic Information System (GIS) in order to understand the pattern of the HPAI (H5N8) outbreak that occurred in 2014 in South Korea. Based on the 2014 HPAI outbreak patterns, HPAI-infected poultry farms were categorized according to geological features. The HPAI-infected poultry farms were categorized as 'regional-accumulation', 'regional-distribution', 'metropolitan-accumulation', 'metropolitan-distribution' and 'national-distribution' in endemic or non-endemic regions. We were able to categorize most HPAI-infected poultry farms into the five proposed categories, but further studies are required to categorize all such farms. Based on this categorization system, we propose efficient but economical prevention boundaries in South Korea. We strongly believe that our research could hugely impact government decisions to estimate the prevention area.

• Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.119-128
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• 2004

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is a very acute systemic disease in poultry, particularly in chickens and turkeys caused by HPAI viruses. An outbreak of HPAI caused by subtype H5N1, was first reported in a broiler breeder farm on December 10, 2003 in Korea, although there had been twenty one outbreaks of the disease reported in the world before. Since mid-December 2003, eight Asian countries have confirmed outbreaks of HPAI due to the same subtype. The outbreak has also resulted in at least twenty three fatal human cases in Vietnam and Thailand as of May 17, 2004 according to the WHO. Regarding the first outbreak of recent Asian HPAI, it has been suspected that some Asian countries with the exception of Korea and Japan veiled the fact of HPAI outbreaks since the last half of 2003, even though it was first reported in Korea. There have been total nineteen outbreaks of HPAI among chicken and duck farms in 10 provinces in Korea since Dec. 2003 and approximately 5,280,000 birds were slaughtered from 392 farms for eradication of the disease and preemptive culling. The origin of the H5Nl HPAI virus introduced into the country are unknown and still under epidemiological investigation. Current status of outbreaks and characteristics of HPAI will be reviewed and discussed on the basis of genetic, virological, clinicopathological, and ecological aspect, as well as future measures for surveillance and prevention of the disease in Korea.

• 한국환경농학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.07a
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• pp.220-227
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• 2009

For last about 10 years, the Republic of Korea experienced 3 times of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) from 10 December 2003 to 30 April 2004 (a total number of 19 outbreaks), 22 November 2006 to 6 March 2007 (a total number of 7 outbreaks), and 1 April 2008 to 12 May 2008 (a total number of 33 outbreaks). Among the totally 59 outbreaks, the infected premises included 35 chicken farms, 17 duck farms, 1 quail farm, and 6 farms rearing mixed species. Control measures were applied according to the HPAI standard operation procedure including depopulation of all infected and suspected flocks, movement restrictions, and disinfection of the infected farms within a 500-meter radius. Including movement restrictions, stringent control measures were additionally applied to two designated zones: the protection zone was an area within a 3-kilometer radius of the outbreak farm, and the surveillance zone was an area between a 3- to 10-kilometer radius of the outbreak farm. Farms with dangerous contacts and/or all of poultry within the protection zone was subjected to preemptive culling. Epidemiological investigations were also carried out including trace-back and trace-forward investigations to identify possible sources of spread and dangerous contact farms. Investigation teams conducted on-site examination of farm premises and facilities, interview with farm owner and staff, and review of records. Genetic and pathogenic characteristics of the virus isolates, and the results of the various surveillance activities were also analyzed. HPAI surveillance conducted in Korea includes passive surveillance of investigating notified cases, and active surveillance of testing high risk groups and areas. HPAI is a notifiable disease in Korea and all suspect cases must be reported to the veterinary authorities. Cases reported for other poultry diseases that require differential diagnosis are also tested for HPAI. Active surveillance includes annual testing of breeder duck farms, broiler duck farms and wild bird surveillance, which is concentrated during the autumn and winter. Surveillance activities conducted prior to the outbreaks have shown no evidence of HPAI infection in Korea.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.386-390
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• 2005

Influenza A viruses periodicall y cause worldwide epidemics, or pandemics, with high rates of illness and death. A pandemic can occur at any time, with the potential to cause serious illness, death and social and economic disruption throughout the world. Historic evidence suggests that pandemics occurred three to four times per century. In the last century there were three influenza pandemics. The circumstances still exist for a new influenza virus with pandemic potential to emerge an d spread. The unpredictability of the timing of the next pandemic is underlined by the occurrence of several large outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza since the early 1980s. In 1999, the World Health Organization published the Influenza pandemic plan. The role of WHO and guidelines for national and regional planning. And in 2005, WHO revised the global influenza preparedness plan for new national measures before and during pandemics. This document outlines briefly the Korean Centers for Disease Control's plan for responding to an influenza pandemic. According to the new pandemic phases of WHO, we set up the 4 national levels of preparedness and made guidelines for preventing and control the epidemics in each phase. And also we described the future plans to antiviral stockpiles and pandemic vaccine development.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.275-277
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• 2017

본 논문에서는 GIS를 이용하여 국내 고병원성 조류인플루엔자(HPAI) 발생 농가를 대상으로 HPAI 감염 및 확산에 영향을 미치는 여러 인자와의 연관성을 분석한다. 인자는 크게 철새에 기인한 1차 감염과 사람에 기인한 2차 감염으로 나눈다. 전자는 철새 이동경로, 철새 도래지, 후자는 고속도로, HPAI 발생 농가 간 거리를 분석한다. 분석 시 거리는 500m(관리지역), 3km(보호지역), 10km(예찰지역)으로 설정하고, ArcGIS 프로그램을 사용하였다.

• Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.146-151
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• 2017

Six major outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) occurred from 2003 to 2016 in Korea. Epidemiological investigations of each outbreak revealed that migratory birds were the primary source of the HPAI virus. During the last five years, the geographic transmission pattern of domestic HPAI seems to have extended from local to nationwide; therefore, it is necessary to identify specific locations in which poultry farms are at elevated risk for HPAI outbreak to enable targeted surveillance and other mitigation strategies. Here, a geographical information system (GIS)-based analysis was used to identify geographic areas at high risk for future HPAI incidents in Korea based on historical outbreak data collected between December 2003 and April 2016. To accomplish this, seven criteria were used to identify areas at high-risk for HPAI occurrence. The first three criteria were based on defined spatial criteria buffering of 200 bird migration sites to some defined extents and the historical incidence of HPAI outbreaks at the buffering sites. The remaining criteria were based on combined attribute information such as number of birds or farms at district levels. Based on the criteria established for this study, the most-likely areas at higher risk for HPAI outbreak were located in Chungcheong, Jeolla, Gyeonggi, and Gyeongnam provinces, which are densely populated poultry regions considered major poultry-production areas that are located along bird migration sites. The proportion of areas at risk for HPAI occurrence ranged from 4.5% to 64.9%. For the worst criteria, all nine provinces, including Jeju Island, were found to be at risk of HPAI. The results of this study indicate that the number of poultry farms at risk for HPAI outbreaks is largely underestimated by current regulatory risk assessment procedures conducted for biosecurity authorization. The HPAI risk map generated in this study will enable easy use of information by policy makers to identify surveillance zones and employ targeted surveillance to reduce the impact of HPAI transmission.

• Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.15-22
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• 2019

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is among the top infectious disease priorities in Korea and the leading cause of economic loss in relevant poultry industry. An understanding of the spatial epidemiology of HPAI outbreak is essential in assessing and managing the risk of the infection. Though previous studies have reported the majority of outbreaks occurred clustered in what are preferred to as densely populated poultry regions, especially in southwest coast of Korea, little is known about the spatial distribution of risk areas vulnerable to HPAI occurrence based on geographic information system (GIS). The main aim of the present study was to develop a GIS-based risk index model for defining potential high-risk areas of HPAI outbreaks and to explore spatial distribution in relative risk index for each 252 Si-Gun-Gu (administrative unit) in Korea. The risk index was derived incorporating seven GIS database associated with risk factors of HPAI in a standardized five-score scale. Scale 1 and 5 for each database represent the lowest and the highest risk of HPAI respectively. Our model showed that Jeollabuk-do, Chungcheongnam-do, Jeollanam-do and Chungcheongbuk-do regions will have the highest relative risk from HPAI. Areas with risk index value over 4.0 were Naju, Jeongeup, Anseong, Cheonan, Kochang, Iksan, Kyeongju and Kimje, indicating that Korea is at risk of HPAI introduction. Management and control of HPAI becomes difficult once the virus are established in domestic poultry populations; therefore, early detection and development of nationwide monitoring system through targeted surveillance of high-risk spots are priorities for preventing the future outbreaks.

• Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.23-29
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• 2019

While research findings suggest that the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is the leading cause of economic loss in Korean poultry industry with an estimated cumulative impact of $909 million since 2003, identifying the environmental and anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. The objective of this study was to identify areas at high risk for potential HPAI outbreaks according to the likelihood of HPAI virus detection in wild birds. This study integrates spatial information regarding HPAI surveillance with relevant demographic and environmental factors collected between 2003 and 2018. The Maximum Entropy (Maxent) species distribution modeling with presence-only data was used to model the spatial risk of HPAI virus. We used historical data on HPAI occurrence in wild birds during the period 2003-2018, collected by the National Quarantine Inspection Agency of Korea. The database contains a total of 1,065 HPAI cases (farms) tied to 168 unique locations for wild birds. Among the environmental variables, the most effective predictors of the potential distribution of HPAI in wild birds were (in order of importance) altitude, number of HPAI outbreaks at farm-level, daily amount of manure processed and number of wild birds migrated into Korea. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the 10 Maxent replicate runs of the model with twelve variables was 0.855 with a standard deviation of 0.012 which indicates that the model performance was excellent. Results revealed that geographic area at risk of HPAI is heterogeneously distributed throughout the country with higher likelihood in the west and coastal areas. The results may help biosecurity authority to design risk-based surveillance and implementation of control interventions optimized for the areas at highest risk of HPAI outbreak potentials.