• Title/Summary/Keyword: High-risk

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Establishment and Application of Molecular Genetic Techniques for Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis of Osteogenesis Imperfecta (골형성부전증의 착상전 유전진단을 위한 분자유전학적 방법의 조건 확립과 적용)

  • Kim, Min-Jee;Lee, Hyoung-Song;Choi, Hye-Won;Lim, Chun-Kyu;Cho, Jae-Won;Kim, Jin-Young;Song, In-Ok;Kang, Inn-Soo
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.99-110
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    • 2008
  • Objectives: Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) has become an assisted reproductive technique for couples carrying genetic conditions that may affect their offspring. Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is an autosomal dominant disorder of connective tissue characterized by bone fragility and low bone mass. At least 95% of cases are caused by dominant mutations in the COL1A1 or COL1A2. In this study, we report on our experience clinical outcomes with 5 PGD cycles for OI in two couples. Methods: Before clinical PGD, we assessed the amplification rate and allele drop-out (ADO) rate of alkaline lysis and nested PCR protocol using heterozygous patient's single lymphocytes in the pre-clinical diagnostic tests for OI. We performed 5 cycles of PGD for OI by nested PCR for the causative mutation loci, COL1A1 c.2452G>A and c.3226G>A, in case 1 and case 2, respectively. The PCR products were analyzed by agarose gel electrophoresis, restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis with HaeIII restriction enzyme in the case 1 and direct DNA sequencing. Results: We confirmed the causative mutation loci, COL1A1 c.2452G>A in case 1 and c.3226G>A in case 2. In the pre-clinical tests, the amplification rate was 94.2% and ADO rate was 22.5% in case 1, while 98.1% and 1.9% in case 2, respectively. In case 1, a total of 34 embryos were analyzed and 31 embryos (91.2%) were successfully diagnosed in 3 PGD cycles. Eight out of 19 embryos diagnosed as unaffected embryos were transferred in all 3 cycles, and in the third cycle, pregnancy was achieved and a healthy baby was delivered without any complications in July, 2005. In case 2, all 19 embryos (100.0%) were successfully diagnosed and 4 out of 11 unaffected embryos were transferred in 2 cycles. Pregnancy was achieved in the second cycle and the healthy baby was delivered in March, 2008. The causative locus was confirmed as a normal by amniocentesis and postnatal diagnosis. Conclusions: To our knowledge, these two cases are the first successful PGD for OI in Korea. Our experience provides a further demonstration that PGD is a reliable and effective clinical techniques and a useful option for many couples with a high risk of transmitting a genetic disease.

The Prognostic Value of the First Day and Daily Updated Scores of the APACHE III System in Sepsis (패혈증환자에서 APACHE III Scoring System의 예후적 가치)

  • Lim, Chae-Man;Lee, Jae-Kyun;Lee, Sung-Soon;Koh, Youn-Suck;Kim, Woo-Sung;Kim, Dong-Soon;Kim, Won-Dong;Park, Pyung-Hwan;Choi, Jong-Moo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.871-877
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    • 1995
  • Background: The index which could predict the prognosis of critically ill patients is needed to find out high risk patients and to individualize their treatment. The APACHE III scoring system was established in 1991, but there has been only a few studies concerning its prognostic value. We wanted to know whether the APACHE III scores have prognostic value in discriminating survivors from nonsurvivors in sepsis. Methods: In 48 patients meeting the Bones criteria for sepsis, we retrospectively surveyed the day 1(D1), day 2(D2) and day 3(D3) scores of patients who were admitted to intensive care unit. The scores of the sepsis survivors and nonsurvivors were compared in respect to the D1 score, and also in respect to the changes of the updated D2 and D3 scores. Results: 1) Of the 48 sepsis patients, 21(43.5%) survived and 27(56.5%) died. The nonsurvivors were older($62.7{\pm}12.6$ vs $51.1{\pm}18.1$ yrs), presented with lower mean arterial pressure($56.9{\pm}26.2$ vs $67.7{\pm}14.2\;mmHg$) and showed greater number of multisystem organ failure($1.2{\pm}0.8$ vs $0.2{\pm}0.4$) than the survivors(p<0.05, respectively). There were no significant differences in sex and initial body temperature between the two groups. 2) The D1 score was lower in the survivors (n=21) than in the nonsurvivors ($44.1{\pm}14.6$, $78.5{\pm}18.6$, p=0.0001). The D2 and D3 scores significantly decreased in the survivors (D1 vs D2, $44.1{\pm}14.6$ : $37.9{\pm}15.0$, p=0.035; D2 vs D3, $37.9{\pm}15.0$ : $30.1{\pm}9.3$, p=0.0001) but showed a tendency to increase in the nonsurvivors (D1 vs D2 (n=21), $78.5{\pm}18.6$ : $81.3{\pm}23.0$, p=0.1337; D2 vs D3 (n=11), $68.2{\pm}19.3$ : $75.3{\pm}18.8$, p=0.0078). 3) The D1 scores of 12 survivors and 6 nonsurvivors were in the same range of 42~67 (mean D1 score, $53.8{\pm}10.0$ in the survivors, $55.3{\pm}10.3$ in the nonsurvivors). The age, sex, initial body temperature, and mean arterial pressure were not different between the two groups. In this group, however, D2 and D3 was significantly decreased in the survivors(D1 vs D2, $53.3{\pm}10.0$ : $43.6{\pm}16.4$, p=0.0278; D2 vs D3, $43.6{\pm}16.4$ : $31.2{\pm}10.3$, p=0.0005), but showed a tendency to increase in the nonsurvivors(D1 vs D2 (n=6), $55.3{\pm}10.3:66.7{\pm}13.9$, p=0.1562; D2 vs D3 (n=4), $64.0{\pm}16.4:74.3{\pm}18.6$, p=0.1250). Among the individual items of the first day APACHE III score, only the score of respiratory rate was capable of discriminating the nonsurvivors from the survivors ($5.5{\pm}2.9$ vs $1.9{\pm}3.7$, p=0.046) in this group. Conclusion: In sepsis, nonsurvivors had higher first day APACHE III score and their updated scores on the following days failed to decline but showed a tendency to increase. Survivors, on the other hand, had lower first day score and showed decline in the updated APACHE scores. These results suggest that the first day and daily updated APACHE III scores are useful in predicting the outcome and assessing the response to management in patients with sepsis.

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The Effect of Nasal BiPAP Ventilation in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Airway Disease (만성 기도폐쇄환자에서 급성 호흡 부전시 BiPAP 환기법의 치료 효과)

  • Cho, Young-Bok;Kim, Ki-Beom;Lee, Hak-Jun;Chung, Jin-Hong;Lee, Kwan-Ho;Lee, Hyun-Woo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.190-200
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    • 1996
  • Background : Mechanical ventilation constitutes the last therapeutic method for acute respiratory failure when oxygen therapy and medical treatment fail to improve the respiratory status of the patient. This invasive ventilation, classically administered by endotracheal intubation or by tracheostomy, is associated with significant mortality and morbidity. Consequently, any less invasive method able to avoid the use of endotracheal ventilation would appear to be useful in high risk patient. Over recent years, the efficacy of nasal mask ventilation has been demonstrated in the treatment of chronic restrictive respiratory failure, particularly in patients with neuromuscular diseases. More recently, this method has been successfully used in the treatment of acute respiratory failure due to parenchymal disease. Method : We assessed the efficacy of Bilevel positive airway pressure(BiPAP) in the treatment of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD). This study prospectively evaluated the clinical effectiveness of a treatment schedule with positive pressure ventilation via nasal mask(Respironics BiPAP device) in 22 patients with acute exacerbations of COPD. Eleven patients with acute exacerbations of COPD were treated with nasal pressure support ventilation delivered via a nasal ventilatory support system plus standard treatment for 3 consecutive days. An additional 11 control patients were treated only with standard treatment. The standard treatment consisted of medical and oxygen therapy. The nasal BiPAP was delivered by a pressure support ventilator in spontaneous timed mode and at an inspiratory positive airway pressure $6-8cmH_2O$ and an expiratory positive airway pressure $3-4cmH_2O$. Patients were evaluated with physical examination(respiratory rate), modified Borg scale and arterial blood gas before and after the acute therapeutic intervention. Results : Pretreatment and after 3 days of treatment, mean $PaO_2$ was 56.3mmHg and 79.1mmHg (p<0.05) in BiPAP group and 56.9mmHg and 70.2mmHg (p<0.05) in conventional treatment (CT) group and $PaCO_2$ was 63.9mmHg and 56.9mmHg (p<0.05) in BiPAP group and 53mmHg and 52.8mmHg in CT group respectively. pH was 7.36 and 7.41 (p<0.05) in BiPAP group and 7.37 and 7.38 in cr group respectively. Pretreatment and after treatment, mean respiratory rate was 28 and 23 beats/min in BiPAP group and 25 and 20 beats/min in CT group respectively. Borg scale was 7.6 and 4.7 in BiPAP group and 6.4 and 3.8 in CT group respectively. There were significant differences between the two groups in changes of mean $PaO_2$, $PaCO_2$ and pH respectively. Conclusion: We conclude that short-term nasal pressure-support ventilation delivered via nasal BiPAP in the treatment of acute exacerbation of COPD, is an efficient mode of assisted ventilation for improving blood gas values and dyspnea sensation and may reduce the need for endotracheal intubation with mechanical ventilation.

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Clinical Indices Predicting Resorption of Pleural Effusion in Tuberculous Pleurisy (결핵성 늑막염에서 삼출액의 흡수에 영향을 미치는 임상적 지표)

  • Lee, Joe-Ho;Chung, Hee-Soon;Lee, Jeong-Sang;Cho, Sang-Rok;Yoon, Hae-Kyung;Song, Chee-Sung
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.660-668
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    • 1995
  • Background: It is said that tuberculous pleuritis responds well to anti-tuberculous drug in general, so no further aggressive therapeutic management is unnecesarry except in case of diagnostic thoracentesis. But in clinical practice, we often see some patients who need later decortication due to dyspnea caused by pleural loculation or thickening despite several months of anti-tuberculous drug therapy. Therefore, we want to know the clinical difference between a group who received decortication due to complication of tuberculous pleuritis despite of anti-tuberculous drug and a group who improved after 9 months of anti-tuberculous drug only. Methods: We reviewed 20 tuberculous pleuritis patients(group 1) who underwent decortication due to dyspnea caused by pleural loculation or severe pleural thickening despite of anti-tuberculous drug therapy for 9 or more months, and 20 other tuberculous pleuritis patients(group 2) who improved by anti-tuberculous drug only and had similar degrees of initial pleural effusion and similar age, sex distribution. Then we compared between the two groups the duration of symptoms before anti-tuberculous drug treatment and pleural fluid biochemistry like glucose, LDH, protein and pleural fluid cell count and WBC differential count, and we also wanted to know whether there was any difference in preoperative PFT value and postoperative PFT value in the patients who underwent decortication, and obtained following results. Results: 1) Group 1 patients had lower glucose level{$63.3{\pm}30.8$(mg/dl)} than that of the group 2{$98.5{\pm}34.2$(mg/dl), p<0.05}, and higher LDH level{$776.3{\pm}266.0$(IU/L)} than the group 2 patients{$376.3{\pm}123.1$(IU/L), p<0.05}, and also longer duration of symptom before treatment{$2.0{\pm}1.7$(month)} than the group 2{$1.1{\pm}1.2$(month), p<0.05}, respectively. 2) In group 1, FVC changed from preoperative $2.55{\pm}0.80$(L) to postoperative $2.99{\pm}0.78$(L)(p<0.05), and FEV1 changed from preoperative $2.19{\pm}0.70$(L/sec) to postoperative $2.50{\pm}0.69$(L/sec)(p<0.05). 3) There was no difference in pleural fluid protein level($5.05{\pm}1.01$(gm/dL) and $5.15{\pm}0.77$(gm/dl), p>0.05) and WBC differential count between group 1 and group 2. Conclusion: It is probable that in tuberculous pleuritis there is a risk of complication in the case of showing relatively low pleural fluid glucose or high LDH level, or in the case of having long duraton of symptom before treatment. We thought prospective study should be performed to confirm this.

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Correlation analysis of radiation therapy position and dose factors for left breast cancer (좌측 유방암의 방사선치료 자세와 선량인자의 상관관계 분석)

  • Jeon, Jaewan;Park, Cheolwoo;Hong, Jongsu;Jin, Seongjin;Kang, Junghun
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.37-48
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The most basic conditions of radiation therapy is to prevent unnecessary exposure of normal tissue. The risk factors that are important o evaluate the dose emitted to the lung and heart from radiation therapy for breast cancer. Therefore, comparing the dose factors of a normal tissue according to the radion treatment position and Seeking an effective radiation treatment for breast cancer through the analysis of the correlation relationship. Materials and Methods: Computed tomography was conducted among 30 patients with left breast cancer in supine and prone position. Eclipse Treatment Planning System (Ver.11) was established by computerized treatment planning. Using the DVH compared the incident dose to normal tissue by position. Based on the result, Using the SPSS (ver.18) analyzed the dose in each normal tissue factors and Through the correlation analysis between variables, independent sample test examined the association. Finally The HI, CI value were compared Using the MIRADA RTx (ver. ad 1.6) in the supine, prone position Results: The results of computerized treatment planning of breast cancer in the supine position were V20, $16.5{\pm}2.6%$ and V30, $13.8{\pm}2.2%$ and Mean dose, $779.1{\pm}135.9cGy$ (absolute value). In the prone position it showed in the order $3.1{\pm}2.2%$, $1.8{\pm}1.7%$, $241.4{\pm}138.3cGy$. The prone position showed overall a lower dose. The average radiation dose 537.7 cGy less was exposured. In the case of heart, it showed that V30, $8.1{\pm}2.6%$ and $5.1{\pm}2.5%$, Mean dose, $594.9{\pm}225.3$ and $408{\pm}183.6cGy$ in the order supine, prone position. Results of statistical analysis, Cronbach's Alpha value of reliability analysis index is 0.563. The results of the correlation analysis between variables, position and dose factors of lung is about 0.89 or more, Which means a high correlation. For the heart, on the other hand it is less correlated to V30 (0.488), mean dose (0.418). Finally The results of independent samples t-test, position and dose factors of lung and heart were significantly higher in both the confidence level of 99 %. Conclusion: Radiation therapy is currently being developed state-of-the-art linear accelerator and a variety of treatment plan technology. The basic premise of the development think normal tissue protection around PTV. Of course, if you treat a breast cancer patient is in the prone position it take a lot of time and reproducibility of set-up problems. Nevertheless, As shown in the experiment results it is possible to reduce the dose to enter the lungs and the heart from the prone position. In conclusion, if a sufficient treatment time in the prone position and place correct confirmation will be more effective when the radiation treatment to patient.

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Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating (회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2012
  • Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

The Recent Outcomes after Repair of Tetralogy of Fallot Associated with Pulmonary Atresia and Major Aortopulmonary Collateral Arteries (폐동맥폐쇄와 주대동맥폐동맥부행혈관을 동반한 활로씨사징증 교정의 최근 결과)

  • Kim Jin-Hyun;Kim Woong-Han;Kim Dong-Jung;Jung Eui-Suk;Jeon Jae-Hyun;Min Sun-Kyung;Hong Jang-Mee;Lee Jeong-Ryul;Rho Joon-Ryuang;Kim Yong-Jin
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.39 no.4 s.261
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    • pp.269-274
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    • 2006
  • Background: Tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) with pulmonary atresia and major aortopulmonary collateral arteries (MAPCAS) is complex lesion with marked heterogeneity of pulmonary blood supply and arborization anomalies. Patients with TOF with PA and MAPCAS have traditionally required multiple staged unifocalization of pulmonary blood supply before undergoing complete repair. In this report, we describe recent change of strategy and the results in our institution. Material and Method: We established surgical stratagies: early correction, central mediastinal approach, initial RV-PA conduit interposition, and aggressive intervention. Between July 1998 and August 2004, 23 patients were surgically treated at our institution. We divided them into 3 groups by initial operation method; group I: one stage total correction, group II: RV-PA conduit and unifocalization, group III: RV-PA conduit interposition only. Result: Mean ages at initial operation in each group were $13.9{\pm}16.0$ months (group 1), $10.4{\pm}15.6$ months (group II), and $7.9{\pm}7.7$ months (group III). True pulmonary arteries were not present in f patient and the pulmonary arteries were confluent in 22 patients. The balloon angioplasty was done in average 1.3 times (range: $1{\sim}6$). There were 4 early deaths relating initial operation, and 1 late death due to incracranial hemorrhage after definitive repair. The operative mortalities of initial procedures in each group were 25.0% (1/4: group I), 20.0% (2/10: group II), and 12.2% (1/9: group III). The causes of operative mortality were hypoxia (2), low cardiac output (1) and sudden cardiac arrest (1). Definitive repair rates in each group were 75% (3/4) in group I, 20% (2/10, fenestration: 2) in group II, and 55.0% (5/9, fenestration: 1) in group III. Conclusion: In patients of TOF with PA and MAPCAS, RV-PA connection as a initial procedure could be performed with relatively low risk, and high rate of definitive repair can be obtained in the help of balloon pulmonary angioplasty. One stage RV-PA connection and unifocalization appeared to be successful in selected patients.

Radiotherapy in Incompletely Resected Gastric Cancers (불완전 절제된 위암의 방사선 치료)

  • Kim Jong Hoon;Choi Eun Kyung;Cho Jung Gil;Kim Byung Sik;Oh Sung Tae;Kim Dong Kwan;Chang Hyesook
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : Although local recurrence rates of stomach cancer after radiocal surgery have been reported in the range of $30-70\%$, the role of postoperative adjuvant therapy has not been established. We report the result of radiotherapy in resected stomach cancer with positive surgical margin to elucidate the role of postoperative radiotherapy. Materials and Methods : From June 1991 to August 1996, twenty five patients with positive surgical margins after radical gastrectomy were treated with postoperative radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Median dose of radiation was 55.8Gy and the range was 44.6-59.4Gy. Second cycle of chemotherapy was delivered concurrently with radiation and total number of six cycles were delivered. Twenty three had adenocarcinoma and the other two had leiornyosarcoma. The numbers of patients with stage I B, II, III A, III B, and IV were 1, 2, 11, 10 and 1 respectively. Positive margins at distal end of the stomach were in 17 patients and proximal in 5. The other three patients had positive margin at the sites of adjacent organ invasion Minimum and median follow-up periods were 12 months and 18 months, respectively, Results : Twenty-four of 25 patients received prescribed radiation dose and RTOG grade 3 toxicity of UGI tract was observed in 3, all of which were weight loss more than $15\%$ of their pretreatment weight. But hematemesis. melena, intestinal obstruction or grade 4 toxicity were not found. Locoregional failure within the radiation field was observed in 7 patients, and distant metastasis in 10 patients. Sites of locoregional recurrences involve anastomosis/remnant stomach in 3, tumor bed/duodenal stump in 3, regional lymph node in 1 patient Peritoneal seeding occurred in 6, liver metastases months and median disease free survival time was 26 months. Stages andradiation dose were not significant prognostic factors for locoregional in 2, and distant nodes in 2 patients. Four year disease specificsurvival rate was $40\%$ and disease free survival was $48\%$. Median survival was 35 failures. Conculsion : Although all patients in this study had positive surgical margins, locoregional failure rate was $28\%$, and 4 year disease specific survival rate was $40\%$. Considering small number of patients and relatively short follow-up period, it is not certain that postoperative radiotherapy lowered locoregional recurrences. but we could find a Possibility of the role of postoperative radiotherapy in Patients with high risk factors.

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Animal Infectious Diseases Prevention through Big Data and Deep Learning (빅데이터와 딥러닝을 활용한 동물 감염병 확산 차단)

  • Kim, Sung Hyun;Choi, Joon Ki;Kim, Jae Seok;Jang, Ah Reum;Lee, Jae Ho;Cha, Kyung Jin;Lee, Sang Won
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.137-154
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    • 2018
  • Animal infectious diseases, such as avian influenza and foot and mouth disease, occur almost every year and cause huge economic and social damage to the country. In order to prevent this, the anti-quarantine authorities have tried various human and material endeavors, but the infectious diseases have continued to occur. Avian influenza is known to be developed in 1878 and it rose as a national issue due to its high lethality. Food and mouth disease is considered as most critical animal infectious disease internationally. In a nation where this disease has not been spread, food and mouth disease is recognized as economic disease or political disease because it restricts international trade by making it complex to import processed and non-processed live stock, and also quarantine is costly. In a society where whole nation is connected by zone of life, there is no way to prevent the spread of infectious disease fully. Hence, there is a need to be aware of occurrence of the disease and to take action before it is distributed. Epidemiological investigation on definite diagnosis target is implemented and measures are taken to prevent the spread of disease according to the investigation results, simultaneously with the confirmation of both human infectious disease and animal infectious disease. The foundation of epidemiological investigation is figuring out to where one has been, and whom he or she has met. In a data perspective, this can be defined as an action taken to predict the cause of disease outbreak, outbreak location, and future infection, by collecting and analyzing geographic data and relation data. Recently, an attempt has been made to develop a prediction model of infectious disease by using Big Data and deep learning technology, but there is no active research on model building studies and case reports. KT and the Ministry of Science and ICT have been carrying out big data projects since 2014 as part of national R &D projects to analyze and predict the route of livestock related vehicles. To prevent animal infectious diseases, the researchers first developed a prediction model based on a regression analysis using vehicle movement data. After that, more accurate prediction model was constructed using machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Lasso, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. In particular, the prediction model for 2017 added the risk of diffusion to the facilities, and the performance of the model was improved by considering the hyper-parameters of the modeling in various ways. Confusion Matrix and ROC Curve show that the model constructed in 2017 is superior to the machine learning model. The difference between the2016 model and the 2017 model is that visiting information on facilities such as feed factory and slaughter house, and information on bird livestock, which was limited to chicken and duck but now expanded to goose and quail, has been used for analysis in the later model. In addition, an explanation of the results was added to help the authorities in making decisions and to establish a basis for persuading stakeholders in 2017. This study reports an animal infectious disease prevention system which is constructed on the basis of hazardous vehicle movement, farm and environment Big Data. The significance of this study is that it describes the evolution process of the prediction model using Big Data which is used in the field and the model is expected to be more complete if the form of viruses is put into consideration. This will contribute to data utilization and analysis model development in related field. In addition, we expect that the system constructed in this study will provide more preventive and effective prevention.

Epidemiological Studies of Clonorchiasis. - I. Current Status and Natural Transition of the Endemicity of Clonorchis sinensis in Gimhae Gun and Delta, a High Endemic area in Korea (간흡충증(肝吸虫症)의 역학(疫學) - I. 고도유행지(高度流行地) 김해지방(金海地方)에 있어서의 간흡충감염(肝吸虫感染)의 현황(現況)과 자연추이(自然推移))

  • Kim, D.C.;Lee, O.Y.;Lee, J.S.;Ahn, J.S.;Chang, Y.M;Son, S.C.;Moon, I.S.
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.44-65
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    • 1983
  • As a part of the epidemiological studies of clonorchiasis, this study was conducted to evaluate the current endemicity and the natural transition of the Clonorchis infection in Gimhae Gun and delta area a high endemic area in Korea in recent years, prior to the introduction of praziquantel which will eventually influence the status of the prevalence. The data obtained in this study in 1983 were evaluated for natural transition of the infection in comparison with those obtained 16 years ago in 1967 by the author(Kim, 1974). The areas of investigation, villages and schools surveyed, methods and techniques used in this study were the same as in 1967, except for the contents of the questionnaire for raw freshwater fish consumption by the local inhabitants. 1) The prevalence rate of clonorchiasis in the general population of the villages was 48.1% on the average out of a total of 484 persons examined. The average of those of the riverside-delta area was 65.2% and 43.0% in the inland area. Among the schoolchildren, the prevalence rate was 8.2% on the average out of a total of 1,423 examined. By area, the prevalence rate was 10.8% in the riverside delta area and 2.8% in the inland area. By sex, difference in the prevalence was seen only in the inhabitants of the inland area showing 52.4% in the male and 33.5% in the female. 2) In the natural transition of the infection, the prevalence rate among the inhabitants has decreased from 68.8% in 1967 to 48.1% in 1983, and in the schoolchildren from 56.4% in 1967 to 8.2% in 1983. The reduction rate was higher in the riverside-delta area than in the inland area. 3) In the prevalence rate by age, 11.9% was first seen in the 5-9 age group and the rate gradually increased up to 75.0% in the 50-59 age group. By sex, the rate was higher in the male than in the female in the 20-29 age group and over. 4) In the natural transition of the prevalence rate by age, the reduction rate of the infection during the past 16 years was greater in the younger age groups up to the 40-49 age group and reached the same level in the age group 50-59. Reduction was seen again in the age group over 60s. By sex, the reduction rate was greater in the female than in the male in the 20-29 age group and over. By area, the reduction rate was greater in the riverside delta area than in the inland area, particularly in the young age groups. 5) In the intensity of the infection among the cases, the mean egg out-put per mg feces per infected cases(EPmg) in the inhabitants was 6.3. EPmg of those of the river-side-delta area was 15.4 and that of the in-land was 2.8. On the other hand, in the schoolchildren, EPmg was 3.2, and no difference was seen between the two areas, the river-side-delta area and the inland area. 6) In the transition of the intensity of the infection by area, EPmg among the inhabitants inexplically increased from 7.8 in 1967 to 15.4 in 1983. This was probably caused by uneven specimen collection in the process of sampling the population. EPmg of the inhabitants in the inland area and those of the schoolchildren of both riverside delta and inland areas showed a similar decrease in the past 16 years. 7) The intensity of the infection by age showed a relatively low level in the 20-29 age group and below, and EPmg 5.1-9.5 was seen in the 30-39 age group and over. Sex, Epmg was 5.8 in the male and 4.7 the female. By in 8) In the transition of the intensity of the infection, EPmg decreased from 6.2 in 1967 to 5.4 in 1983. By age, in contrast to the figures of 1967 in which EPmg gradually increased with some fluctuation from 1.1 in the 0-4 age group to peak 10.5 in the 50-59 age group, in 1983 lower intensity of the infection was seen in the age group from 10-14 to 20-29 with the EPmg range of 0.6-2.7. 9) In the distribution of the clonorchiasis cases by the range of EPmg value, 43.2% of the cases were in 0.1 0.9 and 34.6% in 1.0-4.9. As a whole by cumulative percent, 44.6% of them were under 0.9 as light infection and 86.1% of them under 9.9 up to moderate infection. By sex, no difference was seen in Epmg. 10) In the transition of the distribution by the range of Epmg, the cases were distributed up to the range 80.0-99.9 in 1967 and to 60.0-79.9 in 1983. By cumulative percent, in the range of 0.1-0.9 and less, light infection, 34.3% of them were distributed in 1967 and 44.6% in 1983 with about 10% increase. In the range of 5.0-9.9 and less, up to moderate infection, 83.2% in 1967 and 86.1% in 1983 of the cases were seen, respectively. 11) The practice of raw freshwater fish consumption among the inhabitants seems to have decreased in recent years. Those who admitted to raw freshwater fish consumption in the last two years among the infected inhabitants were 59.3%, although 86.8% of them professed to have experience with raw freshwater fish consumption. 31.7% of those who have had experience of the raw freshwater fish consumption denied any further consumption in recent years. From an interview of 543 school-children, 24.1% of them admitted to an experience of raw freshwater fish consumption. However, those who have practised in the past two years comprized 17.9%. Those who denied raw freshwater fish consumption in recent years among those who had such experience were 26.0% out of 131 interviewed. The rate of raw freshwater fish consumption in both inhabitants and schoolchildren were higher in the male than in the female. On the contrary, the rate of those who did not practise in recent years among those who had experience of raw freshwater fish consumption was higher in the female than in the male. 12) The major reason for the reduction of raw freshwater fish consumption among the local inhabitants was the risk of the fluke infection. However, it has become apparent that such change of taste has resulted from water pollution impact which has affected throughout the areas of the freshwater systems in this locality since last several years. 13) In animal survey, Clonorchis infection was seen in 14.8% of 88 dogs examined and 3.7% of 27 house rats examined. It was noted that populations of dogs and cats have increased in the villages surveyed. Although the prevalence rate was lower in the present survey than those of 1967, the significance of the animals as the reservoir host has not changed. 14) Prevalence rate of Clonorchis infection by cercariae in the first intermediate host, Parafossarulus manchouricus, was 0.6% out of 517 snails examined. The infection rate was lower in comparison with 2.3% out of 2,124 examined in 1967. Moreover, sharp decreases in number and distribution of the intermediate host snails in many watershed areas of the huge freshwater systems in this locality seemed to reduce transmission of Clonorchis in connection with the intermediate host stage of its life cycle. 15) Clonorchis infection in the second intermediate fish hosts was relatively low. The mean number of Clonorchis metacercaria per fish in Pseudorasbora parva was 517 in 1983, whereas it was 1943 in 1968 through 1969. Environmental water pollution has also caused the decreased fish population density in these areas, and this has also apparently affected to the practice of raw freshwater fish consumption among the local inhabitants. 16) In conclusion, endemicity of Clonorchis infection in Gimhae Gum and delta area of the Nagdong River has sharply decreased during the past 16 years. The major cause of the regressive transition of the infection was the water pollution of the land water systems of this locality. The pollution has upset the ecosystems comprizing of the intermediate hosts of Clonorchis in many areas, and also affected to a significant extent to the discontinuance of the local inhabitants for raw freshwater fish consumption.

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