• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.286-290
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• 2007

기후변화가 국내 수자원에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위해 고해상도 기후변화 시나리오를 이용하여 수자원의 변동성을 평가하였다. IPCC SRES A2 시나리오를 이용하여 5대강수계 139개 유역에 대해 기후 및 유출시나리오를 생산하고 수자원의 변동성을 시공간적으로 분석하였다. 고해상도$(27km{\times}27km)$ 시나리오는 기상연구소에서 전구기후모델인 ECHO-G의 결과를 지역기후모델인 MM5에 경계조건을 사용하여 역학적으로 상세화한 것이다. 이 시나리오를 이용하여 현실성 있는 유역별 기후시나리오를 생산하기 위해 LARS-WG를 사용하였으며, 유출시나리오 생산을 위해 USGS에서 개발된 PRMS 모형을 이용하였다. 생산된 시나리오를 이용하여 분석한 결과 전반적으로 한강유역이 위치한 북쪽유역에서는 연평균유출량이 증가되고, 남쪽에 위치한 유역들에서는 감소할 것으로 전망되었다. 이것은 기온의 증가에 따른 평균증발산량의 증가에 따른 영향으로 나타났다. 계절별로는 봄과 여름철의 유출량은 감소하고, 가을과 겨울철 유출량은 증가할 것으로 분석되었다. 그러나 여름철 평균유출량의 감소에도 불구하고 고수량(Q>100mm)의 규모 및 빈도가 증가할 것으로 전망되었다.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.163-173
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• 2022

Climate change is a key factor that greatly influences changes in the biological seasons and geographical distribution of species. In the ecological field, the BioClimatic predictor (BioClim), which is most related to the physiological characteristics of organisms, is used for vulnerability assessment. However, BioClim values are not provided other than the future period climate average values for each GCM for the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenario. In this study, BioClim data suitable for domestic conditions was produced using 1 km resolution SSPs scenario detailed data produced by Rural Development Administration, and based on the data, a species distribution model was applied to mainly grow in southern, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Gangwon-do and humid regions. Appropriate habitat distributions were predicted every 30 years for the base years (1981 - 2010) and future years (2011 - 2100) of the Acer pictum subsp. mono. Acer pictum subsp. mono appearance data were collected from a total of 819 points through the national natural environment survey data. In order to improve the performance of the MaxEnt model, the parameters of the model (LQH-1.5) were optimized, and 7 detailed biolicm indices and 5 topographical indices were applied to the MaxEnt model. Drainage, Annual Precipitation (Bio12), and Slope significantly contributed to the distribution of Acer pictum subsp. mono in Korea. As a result of reflecting the growth characteristics that favor moist and fertile soil, the influence of climatic factors was not significant. Accordingly, in the base year, the suitable habitat for a high level of Acer pictum subsp. mono is 3.41% of the area of Korea, and in the near future (2011 - 2040) and far future (2071 - 2100), SSP1-2.6 accounts for 0.01% and 0.02%, gradually decreasing. However, in SSP5-8.5, it was 0.01% and 0.72%, respectively, showing a tendency to decrease in the near future compared to the base year, but to gradually increase toward the far future. This study confirms the future distribution of vegetation that is more easily adapted to climate change, and has significance as a basic study that can be used for future forest restoration of climate change-adapted species.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.693-706
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• 2015

A shift of first fowering date (FFD) of spring blossoms (cherry, peach and pear) over the northest Asia under global warming is investiaged using dynamically downscaled daily temperature data with 12.5 km resolution. For the study, we obatained gridded daily data with Historical (1981~2010), and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (2021~2100) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios which were produced by WRFv3.4 in conjunction with HadGEM2-AO. A change on FFDs in 21st century is estimated by applying daily outputs of WRFv3.4 to DTS phonological model. Prior to projection on future climate, the performances of both WRFv3.4 and DTS models are evaluated using spatial distribution of climatology and SCR diagram (Normalized standard deviation-Pattern correlation coefficient-Root mean square difference). According to the result, WRFv3.4 and DTS models well simulated a feature of the terrain following characteristics and a general pattern of observation with a marigin of $1.4^{\circ}C$ and 5~6 days. The analysis reveals a projected advance in FFDs of cherry, peach and pear over the northeast Asia by 2100 of 15.4 days (9.4 days). 16.9 days (10.4 days) and 15.2 days (9.5 days), respectively, compared to the Historical simulation due to a increasing early spring (Februrary to April) temperature of about $4.9^{\circ}C$ ($2.9^{\circ}C$) under the RCP 8.5 (RCP 4.5) scenarios. This indicates that the current flowering of the cherry, peach and pear over analysis area in middle or end of April is expected to start blooming in early or middle of April, at the end of this century. The present study shows the dynamically downscaled daily data with high-resolution is helpeful in offering various useful information to end-users as well as in understanding regional climate change.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.94-101
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• 2008

Warming trends during winter seasons in East Asian regions are expected to accelerate in the future according to the climate projection by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Warmer winters may affect short-term cold hardiness of deciduous fruit trees, and yet phenological observations are scant compared to long-term climate records in the regions. Dormancy depth, which can be estimated by daily temperature, is expected to serve as a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of flowering buds to low temperature in winter. In order to delineate the geographical pattern of short-term cold hardiness in grapevines, a selected dormancy depth model was parameterized for "Campbell Early", the major cultivar in South Korea. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270m cell spacing ("High Definition Digital Temperature Map", HDDTM) were prepared for the current climatological normal year (1971-2000) based on observations at the 56 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations and a geospatial interpolation scheme for correcting land surface effects (e.g., land use, topography, and site elevation). To generate relevant datasets for climatological normal years in the future, we combined a 25km-resolution, 2011-2100 temperature projection dataset covering South Korea (under the auspices of the IPCC-SRES A2 scenario) with the 1971-2000 HD-DTM. The dormancy depth model was run with the gridded datasets to estimate geographical pattern of change in the cold-hardiness period (the number of days between endo- and forced dormancy release) across South Korea for the normal years (1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Results showed that the cold-hardiness zone with 60 days or longer cold-tolerant period would diminish from 58% of the total land area of South Korea in 1971-2000 to 40% in 2011-2040, 14% in 2041-2070, and less than 3% in 2071-2100. This method can be applied to other deciduous fruit trees for delineating geographical shift of cold-hardiness zone under the projected climate change in the future, thereby providing valuable information for adaptation strategy in fruit industry.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.124-131
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• 2012

This study was carried out to evaluate a possible change in freeze risk for 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach buds in three major peach growing areas under the future climate projected by RCP8.5 emission scenario. Mean values of the monthly temperature data for the present decade (2000s) and the future decades (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) were extracted for farm lands in Icheon, Chungju, and Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan region at 1km resolution and 30 sets of daily temperature data were generated randomly by a stochastic process for each decade. The daily data were used to calculate a thermal time-based dormancy depth index which is closely related to the cold tolerance of peach buds. Combined with daily minimum temperature, dormancy depth can be used to estimate the potential risk of freezing damage on peach buds. When the freeze risk was calculated daily for the winter period (from 1 November to 15 March) in the present decade, Icheon and Chungju regions had high values across the whole period, but Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan regions had low values from mid-December to the end of January. In the future decades, the frequency of freezing damage would be reduced in all 3 regions and the reduction rate could be as high as 75 to 90% by 2080's. However, the severe class risk (over 80% damage) will not disappear in the future and most occurrences will be limited to December to early January according to the calculation. This phenomenon might be explained by shortened cold hardiness period caused by winter warming as well as sudden cold waves resulting from the higher inter-annual climate variability projected by the RCP8.5 scenario.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.158-158
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• 2012

기후시나리오는 시 공간 해상도가 낮아 결과를 직접적으로 활용하기에는 한계가 있다. 따라서 국내외적으로 지역기후모형(RCM)을 통해 고해상도 기후시나리오를 생산하여 각 분야의 영향평가 시 활용하고 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고 기후모형이 갖는 한계로 인하여 시나리오는 관측자료에 비해 과소모의되는 경향이 발생하기 때문에 이를 고려할 수 있는 편의보정 과정이 필요하다. 하지만 국내 외적으로 여러 편의보정기법이 존재하며, 편의보정기법 선정에 따라 최종 평가 결과에 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 특히 수문 분야에서 활용하기 위해 기후시나리오 중 가장 중요한 요건은 일단 관측치의 월 및 계절별 변동성이 잘 반영되는 가이며, 두 번째는 극한 사상(high, low)을 얼마나 잘 모의하여 홍수와 가뭄을 평가하는데 용이한 가이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기존 편의보정 기법의 불확실성을 평가하고, 이를 통해 수문학적 활용을 위한 고해상도 기후시나리오의 편의 보정 기법을 제안 및 적용성 평가를 수행하고자 한다. 기존 편의보정기법의 적용성을 평가하기 위해 Change factor method, Quantile mapping, Weather Generator 등을 이용하였다. 이를 위해 역학적으로 상세화된 기후시나리오와 기상청 관할의 기상관측소의 최고기온, 최저기온, 평균기온, 강수량 등의 기후 자료를 수집하였다. 평가를 위해 선정한 관측소 지점은 1951년부터 강수 및 기온 자료가 존재하는 기상청 관할 기상관측소를 토대로, 지역적인 평가를 위해 최종적으로 서울, 강릉, 대구, 부산, 목포, 광주, 전주, 울산, 추풍령을 선정하였다. 이 중 1956~1980년을 과거기간으로 1981~2005년를 미래기간으로 가정하고, 편의 보정 기법 적용하여 기온과 강수량의 통계적 특성을 비교 분석하였으며 평가결과, 편의보정 기법의 따른 한계점들을 도출하였다. 한계점들을 개선하기 위해 본 연구에서 제안한 편의 보정기법은 강수량을 크게 3단계(극한 호우사상, 강수일수, 평균 표준편차 보정)로 나누어 편의보정을 실시하는 것으로 극한 호우사상을 위해서는 연최대치 계열을 이용한 회귀식을 이용하여 보정하였고, 비초과확률을 이용하여 RCM 결과값의 강수일수를 보정하였다. 최종적으로 나머지 강수시나리오에 대해서 평균과 표준편차를 보정하여 최종시나리오를 생산 및 적용성을 평가하였다. 평가 결과, 기존 편의보정기법의 단점을 극복할 수 있었으며, 이를 통해 향후 수문학 분야에 적용하여 신뢰성 있는 기후변화 영향평가를 수행될 수 있을 것이다. 제안한 편의보정 기법 및 평가 결과에 대한 자세한 내용은 발표 시 제시하고자 한다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.12
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• pp.921-930
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• 2007

The objective of this study is to present temporal-spatial variation of water resources on climate change impacts using the IPCC SRES A2 scenario and dynamical downscaling of the results (using the MM5 model with a resolution of 27km by 27km) at 139 sub-basins in Korea. The variation of runoff shows differences in the change of rate according to the each sub-basins and analysis durations. It has increased in the sub-basins located in Han river basin and east part of it, the other basins have decreased. In seasonal analysis, runoff in autumn and winter have increased, while in spring and summer have decreased. The results of frequency analyzing classified runoff(Low flow(Q$\leq$5mm), Normal flow(5$\geq$100mm)) show that low flow increase in most of the sub-basins for 2031-2060 and 2061-2090. In the case of high flow, it have higher frequency ranging from -100% to 500% than low flow. Regardless of the variation of mean runoff, maximum discharge appeared to be increase in process of time. The regression method is used to figure out the relationship between the rate of runoff change and mean temperature, mean precipitation under A2 scenario. The mean actual evapotranspirations from the regression equations increased by 3.4$\sim$5.3% for the change of $1^{\circ}C$. Also, for the precipitation change of $\pm$10%, runoff variety range is -18.2$\sim$+12.4% in Han River, -21.6$\sim$+14.6% in Nakdong River, -17.5$\sim$+11.5% in Gum River, -18.4$\sim$+10.6% in Sumjin River, -19.9$\sim$+12.7% Youngsan River basin.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.161-169
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• 2012

The RCP 8.5 scenario based temperature outlook (12.5 km resolution) was combined with high-definition gridded temperature maps (30 m grid spacing) across the Korean Peninsula in order to reclassify the cold hardiness zone for winter barley, a promising grain crop in the future under warmer winter conditions. Reference maps for the January minimum and mean temperature were prepared by applying the watershed-specific geospatial climate prediction schemes to the synoptic observations from 1981 to 2010 across North and South Korea. Decadal changes in the January minimum and mean temperatures projected by a regional version of RCP8.5 climate change scenario were prepared for the 2011-2100 period at 12.5 km grid spacing and were subsequently added to the reference maps, producing the 30 m resolution temperature surfaces for 9 decades from 2011 to 2100. A criterion for threshold temperature to grow winter barley safely in Korea was applied to the future temperature surfaces and the resulting maps were used to predict the production potential of 3 cultivar groups for the 9 future decades under the projected temperature conditions. By 2020s, hulled barley cultivars could be grown safely at the southern part of North Korea as well as the mountainous Gangwon province. Furthermore, most of South Korean rice paddies will be safe for growing naked barley after harvesting rice. Also, dual cropping systems such as 'winter-barley after rice' could be possible at most of the North Korean rice paddies by 2040s. Additional grain production in North Korea could increase up to 4 million tons per year if dual cropping systems can be fully operated, i.e., winter barley after rice at all lowlands and winter barley after maize or potato at all uplands.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.295-308
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• 2010

As an attempt to explore the impact of droughts which may be worse by the climate change, the change in the water balance of the Han-river basin is analyzed. To accomplish it, we suggest a procedure consisting of three successive sub-procedures: daily rainfall generation for 70 years by the RegCM3 RCM ($27{\times}27\;km$) with the A2 scenario, daily discharge simulations by SLURP using the generated daily rainfall data, and monthly water balance analysis by K-WEAP (Korean Water Evaluation and Planning System) based on the SLURP simulation. Since significant uncertainty is involved in forecasting the future water consumption and water yields, we assumed three water consumption scenarios and fifty water yields scenarios. Three water consumption scenarios are, namely, "LOW", "MEDIUM", and "HIGH" according to the expected amount of water consumption. The fifty daily discharges are obtained from the SLURP simulations during the drought period. Finally, water balance analysis is performed by K-WEAP based on 150 combinations from three water consumption scenarios and the fifty daily discharges. Analysis of water scarcity in small basins of the Han River basin showed concentration of water scarcity in some small basins. It was also found that water scarcity would increase in all small basins of the Han River basin.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.229-241
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• 2006

Global air temperature has risen by $0.6^{\circ}C$ over the last one hundred years due to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases. Moreover, this global warming trend is projected to continue in the future. This study was carried out to evaluate spatial variations in rice production areas by simulating rice-growth and development with projected high resolution climate data in Korea far 2011-2100, which was geospatially interpolated from the 25 km gridded data based on the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. Satellite remote sensing data were used to pinpoint the rice-growing areas, and corresponding climate data were aggregated to represent the official 'crop reporting county'. For the simulation experiment, we used a CERES-Rice model modified by introducing two equations to calculate the leaf appearance rate based on the effective temperature and existing leaf number and the final number of leaves based on day-length in the photoperiod sensitive phase of rice. We tested the performance of this model using data-sets obtained from transplanting dates and nitrogen fertilization rates experiments over three years (2002 to 2004). The simulation results showed a good performance of this model in heading date prediction [$R^2$=0.9586 for early (Odaebyeo), $R^2$=0.9681 for medium (Hwasungbyeo), and $R^2$=0.9477 for late (Dongjinbyeo) maturity cultivars]. A modified version of CERES-Rice was used to simulate the growth and development of three Japonica varieties, representing early, medium, and late maturity classes, to project crop status for climatological normal years between 2011 and 2100. In order to compare the temporal changes, three sets of data representing 3 climatological years (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) were successively used to run the model. Simulated growth and yield data of the three Japonica cultivars under the observed climate for 1971-2000 was set as a reference. Compared with the current normal, heading date was accelerated by 7 days for 2011-2040 and 20 days for 2071-2100. Physiological maturity was accelerated by 15 days for 2011-2040 and 30 days for 2071-2100. Rice yield was in general reduced by 6-25%, 3-26%, and 3-25% per 10a in early, medium, and late maturity classes, respectively. However, mid to late maturing varieties showed an increased yield in northern Gyeonggi Province and in most of Kwangwon Province in 2071-2100.