• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hierarchical Logit Model

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A Study on Choice Behavior of Theme Park Visitors - Application of Nested Logit Model - (주제공원 이용자들의 선택행동 추정에 관한 연구 -Nested Logit Model의 적용)

  • 홍성권
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.96-111
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    • 1997
  • This study was carried out to identify users' choice behavior of theme parks. overland. Lotte World, Seoul Land, Dreamland and Children's Grand Park were selected as study areas. Both multinomial logic model(MNL), nested logic model(NMNL) and joint logit model wet$.$e test using a choice-based sample collected on study areas. Hausman-McFadden test showed that the MNL is not appropriate because the IIA assumption is violated. To avoid the problematic IIA assumption, the NMNL was tested. It splits similar alternatives into groups and nests separate decisions into hierarchical order to avoid the IIA assumption. Cluster analysis and discriminant analysis were conducted to find applicable nest structures. The inclusive value coefficient was 0.7788. It meant that sufficient condition of this model is met and users' choice behavior can be better understood by NMNL than MNL. The $\rho$2 value and accuracy of prediction of this model were 0.402 and 46.33% , respectively. Several comments were suggested to make the NMNL to be more reliable for future research on users' choice behavior of theme park.

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A Study on the Determinants of Migration Types of the Youth in Non-metropolitan Areas by using a Hierarchical Logit Model (위계로짓모형을 활용한 비수도권 청년층의 이주유형별 결정요인 비교분석)

  • Hansoun Woo
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.421-442
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    • 2023
  • This research focuses on the fact that the characteristics of migration types of the youth in non-metropolitan areas vary by region and has the primary objective of comparing and analyzing the differences in determinants of each migration type. First, An exploratory analysis of the migration status and characteristics of the youth in non-metropolitan areas was conducted, and then a hierarchical logit model was used to estimate the determinants of migration types separately. The results showed that the characteristics of migration types vary by region, and each determinant of migration types is composed of different bundles of variables(individual and regional levels). In the future, policies aimed at securing young workforce in non-metropolitan areas will be more effective when they take into account various determinants of migration choices and reflect the regional context.

Development of the Prediction Method for Hospital Bankruptcy using a Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model(HGIM) (HGLM을 적용한 병원 도산 예측방법의 개발)

  • Noh, Maeng-Seok;Chang, Hye-Jung;Lee, Young-Jo
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.22-36
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    • 2001
  • The hospital bankruptcy rate is increasing, therefore it is very important to predict the bankruptcy using the existing hospital management information. The hospital bankruptcy is often measured in year intervals, called grouped duration data, not by the continuous time elapsed to the bankruptcy. This study introduces a hierarchical generalized linear model(HGLM) for analysis of hospital bankruptcy data. The hazard function for each hospital may be influenced by unobservable latent variables, and these unknown variables are usually termed as random effects or frailties which explain correlations among repeated measures of the same hospital and describe individual heterogeneities of hospitals. Practically, the data of twenty bankrupt and sixty profitable hospitals were collected for five years, and were fitted to HGLM. The results were compared with those of the logit model. While the logit model resulted only in the effects of explanatory variables on the bankruptcy status at specific period, the HGLM showed variables with significant effects over all observed years. It is concluded that the HGLM with a fixed ratio and a period of total asset turnrounds was justified, and could find significant within and between hospital variations.

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Bayesian Analysis of Binary Non-homogeneous Markov Chain with Two Different Time Dependent Structures

  • Sung, Min-Je
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.19-35
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    • 2006
  • We use the hierarchical Bayesian approach to describe the transition probabilities of a binary nonhomogeneous Markov chain. The Markov chain is used for describing the transition behavior of emotionally disturbed children in a treatment program. The effects of covariates on transition probabilities are assessed using a logit link function. To describe the time evolution of transition probabilities, we consider two modeling strategies. The first strategy is based on the concept of exchangeabiligy, whereas the second one is based on a first order Markov property. The deviance information criterion (DIC) measure is used to compare models with two different time dependent structures. The inferences are made using the Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. The developed methodology is applied to some real data.

A Study on the Theme Park Users' Choice behavior -Application of Constraints-Induced Conjoint Choice Model- (주제공원 이용자들의 선택행동 연구 -Constraints-Induced Conjoint Choice Model의 적용-)

  • 홍성권;이용훈
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.18-27
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    • 2000
  • The importance of constraints has been one of major issues in recreation for prediction of choice behavior; however, traditional conjoint choice model did not consider the effects of these variables or fail to integrate them into choice model adequately. The purposes of this research are (a) to estimate the effects of constraints in theme park choice behavior by the constraints-induced conjoint choice model, and (b) to test additional explanatory power of the additional constraints in this suggested model against the more parsimonious traditional model. A leading polling agency was employed to select respondents. Both alternative generating and choice set generating fractional factorial design were conducted to meet the necessary and sufficient conditions for calibration of the constraints-induced conjoint choice model. Th alternative-specific model was calibrated. The log-likelihood ratio test revealed that suggested model was accepted in the favor of the traditional model, and the goodness-of-fit($\rho$$^2$) of suggested and traditional model was 0.48427 and 0.47950, respectively. There was no difference between traditional and suggested model in estimates of attribute levels of car and shuttle bus because alternatives were created to estimate the effects of constraints independently from mode related variables. Most parameters values of constraints had the expected sign and magnitude: the results reflected the characteristics of the theme parks, such as abundance of natural attractions and poor accessibility in Everland, location of major fun rides indoor in Lotte World, city park like characteristics of Dream Land, and traffic jams in Seoul. Instead of the multinomial logit model, the nested logit model is recommended for future researches because this model more reasonably reflects the real decision-making process in park choice. Development of new methodology too integrate this hierarchical decision-making into choice model is anticipated.

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The Effects of Road Geometry on the Injury Severity of Expressway Traffic Accident Depending on Weather Conditions (도로기하구조가 기상상태에 따라 고속도로 교통사고 심각도에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Park, Su Jin;Kho, Seung-Young;Park, Ho-Chul
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.12-28
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    • 2019
  • Road geometry is one of the many factors that cause crashes, but the effect on traffic accident depends on weather conditions even under the same road geometry. This study identifies the variables affecting the crash severity by matching the highway accident data and weather data for 14 years from 2001 to 2014. A hierarchical ordered Logit model is used to reflect the effects of road geometry and weather condition interactions on crash severity, as well as the correlation between individual crashes in a region. Among the hierarchical models, we apply a random intercept model including interaction variables between road geometry and weather condition and a random coefficient model including regional weather characteristics as upper-level variables. As a result, it is confirmed that the effects of toll, ramp, downhill slope of 3% or more, and concrete barrier on the crash severity vary depending on weather conditions. It also shows that the combined effects of road geometry and weather conditions may not be linear depending on rainfall or snowfall levels. Finally, we suggest safety improvement measures based on the results of this study, which are expected to reduce the severity of traffic accidents in the future.

The Differentiating Effects of Job Seekers' Spec on Actual Employment: Focusing on Screening Hypothesis and Dual Labor Market Theory (구직자의 취업스펙이 실제취업에 미치는 영향에 대한 탐색적 연구: 선별이론 및 이중노동시장이론을 중심으로)

  • Jisung Park;Chiho Ok
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.11-24
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study was to examine how job seekers' spec influence their actual employment especially focusing on the differentiating effects of applicants' specs depending on whether general or decent job employment. Design/methodology/approach - This study conducted analyses on 54,443 samples that incorporated data from the Graduates Occupational Mobility Survey for three years (2017-2019) collected by the Korea Employment Information Service. The linear probability model and logit model were used to examine the research questions. Findings - The results analyzed with the hierarchical regression model showed that most job seekers' specs were statistically significant in predicting employment status. Interestingly, there is a difference between the factors predicting employment for a general job and a decent job. This study suggests academic and practical implications for future research in the selection/ recruitment field by clarifying the critical factors to influence applicants' employment. Research implications or Originality The results of this study follow the screening hypothesis which explains that the applicants' specs have significant impacts on actual employment. Also, the dual labor market theory, which explains that applicants' specs differently affect actual employment between general and decent jobs, was reaffirmed.

Analysis of Determinants of Employment Retention Rate (고용유지율 결정요인 분석)

  • Lee, Sikyoon
    • Korean Journal of Labor Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.169-193
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed the determinants that affect employment retention rate in order to diagnose dynamic employment stability in Korea. For this analysis, we constructed multi-level hierarchical data linking Workplace panel survey data and employment insurance job history data. And the determinants were analyzed using a multi-level analysis model suitable for these data. As result of the analysis, it is estimated that the employment stability is very low in Korea due to the widespread existence of the marginal sectors with low wage level and high level of nonstandard employment. In addition, the results of this analysis show that employment structure of Korea occupies considerable area of short-term employment where employment and unemployment are repeated, and overall employment stability is weak. This fact is likely to be a limiting factor for continued growth, as there is limited opportunity for skill development and skills formation at the corporate and individual levels. According to the results of this analysis, it is required to improve the quality of the employment structure for continuous growth and skill formation.