• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.181-193
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• 2017

The paper introduces bottom-up and optimal combination methods that can analyze and forecast hierarchical time series. These methods allow forecasts at lower levels to be summed consistently to upper levels without any ad-hoc adjustment. They can also potentially improve forecast performance in comparison to independent forecasts. We forecast regional traffic accident counts as time series data in order to identify efficiency gains from hierarchical forecasting. We observe that bottom-up or optimal combination methods are superior to independent methods in terms of forecast accuracy.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 1998.10a
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• pp.263-269
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• 1998

The forecasting of container cargo volumes should be estimated correctly because it has a key roles on the establishment of port development planning, and the decision of port operating system. Container cargo volumes have a dynamic characteristics which was changed by effect of competitive ports. Accordingly forecasting was needed overall approach about competitive port's development, alternation and information. But, until now, traffic forecasting was not executed according to competitive situation, and that was accomplished at the point of unit port. Generally, considering the competition situation, simulation method was desirable at forecasting because system's scale was increased, and the influence power was intensified. In this paper, considering this situation, the objectives can be outlined as follows. 1) Structural model constructs by System dynamics method. 2) Structural simulation model develops according to modelling of competitive situation by expended SD method which included HEP(Hierarchical Fuzzy Process) And actually, effectiveness was verified according to proposed model to major port in northeast asia.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.323-336
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• 2024

The accurate forecasting of insurance claims is a critical component for insurers' risk management decisions. Hierarchical Bayesian parametric (BP) models can be used for health insurance claims forecasting, but they are unsatisfactory to describe the claims distribution. Therefore, Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models can be a more suitable alternative to deal with the complex characteristics of the health insurance claims distribution, including heavy tails, skewness, and multimodality. In this study, we apply both a BP model and a BNP model to predict group health claims using simulated and real-world data for a private life insurer in Indonesia. The findings show that the BNP model outperforms the BP model in terms of claims prediction accuracy. Furthermore, our analysis highlights the flexibility and robustness of BNP models in handling diverse data structures in health insurance claims.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.563-578
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• 2015

Forecasting daily box-office performance is critical for planning the distribution of marketing resources, and by extension, maximizing profits. For certain movies, the number of viewers increases rapidly at the beginning of their theatrical run, and the increments slow down later. Other movies are not popular in the beginning, but the audience sizes grow rapidly afterward. Thus, the audience attendance of movies grow in different trajectories, which are influenced by various factors including marketing budget, distributors, directors, actors, and word of mouth. In this paper, we propose a method for predicting the daily performance trajectory of running movies based on the hierarchical linear model. More specifically, we focus on the effect of online word of mouth on the shape of the growth curves. We fitted the mean trajectory of the cumulative audience size as a cubic function of time, and allowed the intercept and slope to vary movie-to-movie. Moreover, we fitted the linear slope with a function of online word of mouth predictors to help determine the shape of the trajectories. Finally, we provide performance predictions for individual movies.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.229-239
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• 2018

This paper introduces how to adopt the concept of temporal hierarchies to forecast time series data. Similarly as in hierarchical cross-sectional data, temporal hierarchies can be constructed for any time series data by means of non-overlapping temporal aggregation. Reconciliation forecasts with temporal hierarchies result in more accurate and robust forecasts when compared with the independent base and bottom-up forecasts. As an empirical example, we forecast traffic accident counts with temporal hierarchies and observe that reconciliation forecasts are superior to the base and bottom-up forecasts in terms of forecast accuracy.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2000.04a
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• pp.122-125
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• 2000

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision making model, which is more applicable than other methods to R&D project selection, particularly when it is applied to intangibles. The objective of this paper is to develop an extended model of the AHP which Is linked to Cross Impact Analysis to assist in the ranking of a large number of technological alternatives. In this study, we developed a priority setting algorithm which considers the cross-impact of the future technology alternatives and thus developed an integrated cross-impact hierarchical decision-making model, which sets the priority by considering technological forecasting and technology dependency

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 1995.04b
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• pp.457-462
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• 1995

This paper describes diagnosis strategy of the Flexible Multiple Fault Diagnosis Module for forecasting faults in system and deciding current machine state form sensor information. Most studydeal with diagnosis control stategy about single fault in a system, this studies deal with multiple fault diagnosis. This strategy is consist of diagnosis control module such as backward tracking expert system shell, various neural network, numerical model to predict machine state and communication module for information exchange and cooperate between each model. This models are used to describe structure, function and behavior of subsystem, complex component and total system. Hierarchical structure is very efficient to represent structural, functional and behavioral knowledge. FT(Fault Tree). ST(Symptom Tree), FCD(Fault Consequence Diagrapy), SGM(State Graph Model) and FFM(Functional Flow Model) are used to represent hierachical structure. In this study, IA(Intelligent Agent) concept is introduced to match FT component and event symbol in diagnosed system and to transfer message between each event process. Proposed diagnosis control module is made of IPC(Inter Process Communication) method under UNIX operating system.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.39-47
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• 1977

Most of the current literature on inventory theory has been devoted to the study of single stage models. A class of inventory problems which is of great interest is the multistage inventory system which involves a series and hierarchical sequence of stations. This study analyzes some aspect of the series type and multi-stage inventory system, using the fixed cycle ordering which bas a modificatory control function in the system equations. The objective of this study is to clarify the dynamic behavior of the system. The author has derived the theoretical formulas of variation of ordering quantity and stock fluctuation of each stage due to power spectral density function. Influence of parameters such as, (1) intensity of autocorrelation of demand sequence ($\lambda$), (2) forecasting exponential smoothing factors of each stage (${\alpha}_1,\;{\alpha}_2,\;{\alpha}_3$) and (3) production control factor of the 3rd stage ($\gamma$), as operators of the system on the variation of ordering quantity and stock fluctuation of the system. is also clarified. As a result of this study, the relations between the variation of ordering quantity, stock fluctuation and the parameters of the system, have been found. The principles and the theorical analysis presented here will be applicable to more complex type of discrete control systems in constructing the specific condition of the system to minimize inventory variances.

• Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.46-60
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to analyze the difference of productivity according to environmental factors among 25 Regional base public hospitals. Also this study is to propose a method to improve the productivity of Regional base public hospitals in the future by improving the public performance and stable management performance by studying the productivity variables affecting profitability. The survey period was based on the last three years, and 25 Regional base public hospitals were selected for the survey. The dependent variable is the total capital medical marginal profitability and the medical profit marginal profitability which are the indicators of profitability. The independent variable, productivity, is classified into three indicators: capital productivity, labor productivity, and value added productivity. The ANOVA analysis method was used to analyze the productivity difference according to the frequency factor and the environmental factors of the Regional base public hospitals. Finally, we conducted a hierarchical regression analysis to examine the productivity variables affecting profitability. The results of this study showed that there were differences in productivity due to environmental factors such as hospital size, competition in the local medical market, and differences in management performance. The difference in productivity and profitability depending on the environmental factors suggests that it is difficult for Regional base public hospitals in each regional base to perform a balanced public service. In order to overcome this, it is necessary to provide balanced medical services such as government financial support expansion, regional medical demand forecasting and facility infrastructure construction.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.68-74
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• 2008

Application areas of Knowledge Discovery in Database(KDD) have been expanded to many R&D management processes including technology trends analysis, forecasting and evaluation etc. Established research field such as informetrics (or scientometrics) has utilized techniques or methods of KDD. Various systems have been developed to support works of analyzing large-scale R&D related databases such as patent DB or bibliographic DB by a few researchers or institutions. But extant systems have some problems for korean users to use. Their prices is not moderate, korean language processing is impossible, and user's demands not reflected. To solve these problems, Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information(KISTI) developed stand-alone type information analysis system named as KnowledgeMatrix. KnowledgeMatrix system offer various functions to analyze retrieved data set from databases. KnowledgeMatrix's main operation unit is composed of user-defined lists and matrix generation, cluster analysis, visualization, data pre-processing. Matrix generation unit help extract information items which will be analyzed, and calculate occurrence, co-occurrence, proximity of the items. Cluster analysis unit enable matrix data to be clustered by hierarchical or non-hierarchical clustering methods and present tree-type structure of clustered data. Visualization unit offer various methods such as chart, FDP, strategic diagram and PFNet. Data pre-processing unit consists of data import editor, string editor, thesaurus editor, grouping method, field-refining methods and sub-dataset generation methods. KnowledgeMatrix show better performances and offer more various functions than extant systems.