• Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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• 2005.06a
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• pp.131-137
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• 2005

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to determine the adaptive preventive maintenance(PM) policy for a general sequential imperfect PM model proposed by Lin, Zuo and Yam(2000) that PM not only reduces the effective age of the system but also changes the hazard rate function. Assuming that the failure times follow Weibull distribution, we adopt a Bayesian approach to update unknown parameters and determine the Bayesian optimal sequential PM policies. Finally, numerical examples of the optimal adaptive PM policy are presented for illustrative purposes.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.111-127
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• 2007

The logistic distribution is generalized using the Marshall-Olkin scheme and its generalization. Some properties are studied. First order autoregressive time series model with Marshall-Olkin semi-logistic distribution as marginal is developed and studied.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.445-455
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• 1999

We modify the Gompertz regression model for estimation of cure rates from pediatric clinical trials by assuming different hazard rates on the different periods. A treatment period may be divided by the stages of treatments under the different treatment arms. The piecewise Gompertz models provide an efficient method for estimation of the cure rates and a method for testing the difference of the treatment effects in the given interval.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.17-28
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• 1998

To propose a new fire hazard assessment criteria of interior finish materials, the properties and incident heat flux of interior finish materials in a compartment fires are investigated and compared by using flame spread model developed by Quintiere. The properties considered on which fire growth depend are including flame heat flux and thermal inertia, lateral flame spread parameter, heat of combustion and effective heat flux and thermal inertia, lateral flame spread parameter, heat of combustion and effective heat of gasfication. ISO Room Corner Test(9705) is applied in the model and the time for total energy release rate to reach 1MW is examined. The results are compared for the 24 different materials tested by EUREFIC. Dimensionless parameter a, b and ${\gamma}$b are used to develope a new method in which fire hazard of interior finish materials can be classified resulting from correlation between b and flashover time. Results show that if b greater than about zero, flashover time in the ISO Room-Corner Test is principally proportional to ignition time only.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.9D no.6
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• pp.1119-1126
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• 2002

In this paper, we propose two predictive spatial data mining based on spatial statistics and apply for predicting the forest fire hazardous area. These are conditional probability and likelihood ratio methods. In these approaches, the prediction models and estimation procedures are depending un the basic quantitative relationships of spatial data sets relevant forest fire with respect to selected the past forest fire ignition areas. To make forest fire hazardous area prediction map using the two proposed methods and evaluate the performance of prediction power, we applied a FHR (Forest Fire Hazard Rate) and a PRC (Prediction Rate Curve) respectively. In comparison of the prediction power of the two proposed prediction model, the likelihood ratio method is mort powerful than conditional probability method. The proposed model for prediction of forest fire hazardous area would be helpful to increase the efficiency of forest fire management such as prevention of forest fire occurrence and effective placement of forest fire monitoring equipment and manpower.

• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1994.02a
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• pp.651-657
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• 1994

To assess quantitatively the association between benzene exposure and leukemia, we examined the mortality rate of a cohort with occupational exposure to benzene. Cumulative exposure for each cohort member was estimated from historical air-sampling data and, when no sampling data existed, from interpolation on the basis of existing data. The overall standardized mortality ratio (a measure of relative risk multiplied by 100) for leukemia was 337 (95 percent confidence interval, 154 to 641), and that for multiple myeloma was 409 (95 percent confidence interval, 110 to 1047). With stratification according to levels of cumulative exposure, the standardized mortality ratios for leukemia increased from 109 to 322, 1186, and 6637 with increases in cumulative benzene exposure from less than 40 parts per million-years (ppm-years), to 40 to 199, 200 to 399, and 400 or more. respectively. A cumulative benzene exposure of 400 ppm years is equivalent to a mean annual exposure of 10 ppm over a 40-year working lifetime; 10 ppm is the currently enforceable standard in the United States for occupational exposure to benzene. To examine the shape of the exposure-response relation, we performed a conditional logistic-regression analysis, in which 10 controls were matched to each cohort member with leukemia. From this model, it can be calculated that protection from benzene induced leukemia would increase exponentially with any reduction in the permissible exposure limit.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.96-107
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• 1997

The recent stream to reliability prediction is that it is totally inclusive in depth to consider even the operating and environmental condition at the level of finished goods as well as component itselves. In this study, firstly we present the reliability prediction methods by entire failure rate model which failure rate at the system level is added to the failure rate model at the component level. Secondly we build up the improved bases of reliability demonstration through a, pp.ication of Kaplan-Meier, Cumulative hazard, Johnson's methods as non-parametric and Maximum Likelihood Estimator under exponential & Weibull distribution as parametric. And also present the methods of curve fitting to piecewise failure rate under Weibull distribution, PRST (Probability Ratio Sequential Test), curve fitting to S-shaped reliability growth curve, computer programs of each methods. Lastly we show the practical for determination of optimal burn-in time as a method of reliability enhancement, and also verify the practical usefulness of the above study through the a, pp.ication of failure and test data during 1 year.

• Corrosion Science and Technology
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• v.4 no.5
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• pp.201-206
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• 2005

Starting with the meaning of the word quality, diverse concepts connoted by the term are examined. Instead of a bathtub curve, the desirable shape of a failure rate covering the entire life of a good product, which might be called hockey-stick line, is introduced. From the hockey-stick line and the definition of reliability, two measurements are extracted. The terms r-reliability (failure rate) and durability (product life) are explained. The conceptual analysis of failure mechanics explains that reliability technology pertains to design area. The desirable shape of hazard rate curve of electronic items, hockey-stick line, clarifies that Mean-Time-to-failure (MTTF) as the inverse of failure rate can be regarded a nominal life. And Bx life, different from MTTF, is explained. Reliability relationships between components and set products are explained. Reshaped definitions of r-reliability and durability are recommended. The procedure to improve reliability and the reasons for failing to identify failure mode are clarified in order to search right solutions. And generalized Life-Stress failure model is recommended for the calculation of acceleration factor.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.237-253
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• 2005

In Korea, the volume of insurance industry has been increased rapidly with helping the economic growth, the increment of GNP and derive of public welfare policy. But the other side of the volume increment, the life insurers have some problems, such as the high rate of turnover, lapses and surrenders, in processing of acquiring more insurance contracts. The object of this paper is the analysis of the causes and properties of the high rate of turnover, lapses and surrenders using statistical survival model. Also we hope that the insurers will use the results of analysis to reduce the rates.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.274-281
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• 2004

Objectives : This study was performed to investigate the injury rates and risk factors for preschool children in Daegu city and Kyungpook province. Method : A questionnaire survey about medically attended injuries during the preschool period was performed in nine primary schools located in Daegu city, Pohang city and Goryung County. The overall injury rate was estimated using person-year. The causes and patterns of the injuries, and their risk factors were examined. Result : A total of 469 medically attended injuries were reported in 330 of the 959 study subjects during the preschool period. The overall annual injury rate was 7.5 per 100 children. The injury rate increased sharply during the period from infant (2.4) to 1 year of age (7.5), and the peak injury rate (9.2) was reported for 5 year olds. The most common causes of injuries were falling (36.0%), followed by being struck by an object (23.7%), and traffic accidents (14.1%). Among the traffic accidents, 72.8% occurred while playing on the road, riding a bicycle or roller-skating. A proportional hazard model showed that males (hazard ratio=1.49, p<0.001 compared with female) and the mother's higher education level (hazard ratio of college or higher= 1.51, p=0.013; high school=1.32, p=0.085 compared with those of middle school or lower) were significant risk factors of childhood injury. Conclusion : The results of this study suggested that efforts for children's safety should be made, especially from the toddler stage, and in male children. To develop a more specific childhood injury prevention program, a surveillance system for injuries should be established. Further study of the relationship between mother's occupation and injury rates is also needed.