• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.936-943
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• 2009

In this study, a risk assessment model based on the ETA (Event Tree Analysis) and FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) is developed according to the procedure of hazard analysis and risk assessment in order to estimate the risk quantitatively. The FTA technique is applied to estimate the branch probability (frequency) and the ETA technique is applied to estimate the consequence for each branch path on the ET (Event Tree). A risk assessment model is developed by the combination of those ETA and FTA. In addition, the reliability and the validity of the risk assessment model are verified by comparing the risk estimated through the developed model with the actual equivalent fatality.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.02a
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• pp.153-156
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• 2008

Comparative analysis of forest fire danger rating on the forest characteristics of thinning area and non-thinning area on forest fire burnt area was studied in this work. To investigate the effect of thinning slash in forest fire, Gangneung-si Wangsan-myeon, Ulgin-gun Wonnam-Myeon, Samchok-si Gagok-Myeon, in which forest fire broke out, were selected. As a result that investigated forest fire danger ratio between thinning slash and non-thinning slash, leeward scorching ratio(36%), crown damage ratio(29%), mortality of branch at the former are higher than those at the latter, leeward scorching ratio of tree, where thinning slash is around, is 10%-20% higher than that of independent tree. So I estimate that thinning slash has a some effect on the intensity of forest fire. And the result to investigate damage of forest fire according to tree species shows that leeward scorching ratio of conifer is 5% higher than that of non-conifer, and mortality of branch of the former is 19% higher than that of the latter. It is considered that forest fire may affect directly to a tree trunk if it diffuse to piled thinning tree because there was no space between thinning trees and trees. Furthermore, it was found that re-ignition had a chance to occur due to lots of piled thinning trees.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.12-17
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• 1998

Fault tree construction for hazard assessment requires so much time and labor, so it is very difficult to be applied to the large scale chemical plant. For the synthesis of fault tree in chemical processes, this study represents the cause-effect relations between process variables by using the Signed Directed Graph(SDG), and has synthesized Fault Tree(FT) by searching the causes of fault events using the general operator and loop operators defined corresponding to path characteristics on the SDG.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.59 no.3
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• pp.164-172
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• 2022

A HAZID is a brainstorming workshop to identify hazards in an early phase of a project. It should be flexible to capture all probable accidents allowing experienced participants to exploit their expertise and experiences. A bowtie analysis is a graphical representation of major accident hazards elaborating safety measures i.e. barriers. The result of these workshops should be documented in an organized manner to share as good as possible details of the discussion through the lifetime of the project. Currently results are documented using a three-step representation of an accident; causes, top event and consequences, which cannot capture correctly sequence of events leading to various accidents and roles of barrier between two events. Another problem is that barriers would be shown repeatedly leading to a misunderstanding that there are an enough number of safety measures. A new bowtie analysis method is proposed to describe an accident in multiple steps showing relations among causes or consequences. With causes and consequences shown in a format of a tree, the frequencies of having the top event (Fault tree analysis) and various consequences (Event tree analysis) are evaluated automatically based on the frequency of initiating causes and the probabilities of failure of barriers. It will provide a good description of the accident scenario and help the risk to be assessed transparently.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.205-216
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• 2024

Recently, seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methods have been developed for process plants, such as gas plants, oil refineries, and chemical plants. The framework originated from the PSA of nuclear power plants, which aims to assess the risk of reactor core damage. The original PSA method was modified to adopt the characteristics of a process plant whose purpose is continuous operation without shutdown. Therefore, a fault tree, whose top event is shut down, was constructed and transformed into a Bayesian Network (BN), a probabilistic graph model, for efficient risk-informed decision-making. In this research, the fault tree-based BN from the previous research is further developed to consider the multi-hazard of earthquake-induced fire and explosion (EQ-induced F&E). For this purpose, an event tree describing the occurrence of fire and explosion from a release is first constructed and transformed into a BN. And then, this BN is connected to the previous BN model developed for seismic PSA. A virtual plot plan of a gas plant is introduced as a basis for the construction of the specific EQ-induced F&E BN to test the proposed BN framework. The paper demonstrates the method through two examples of risk-informed decision-making. In particular, the second example verifies how the proposed method can establish a repair and retrofit strategy when a shutdown occurs in a process plant.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.84-92
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• 2001

In today's world, rise in the establishment of social infrastructure resulting from population saturation in large cities has led to more extensive and frequent use of chemical materials on facilities. A result, unexpected and serious accidents, hazards, contingencies and disasters are more prevalent than ever. Such phenomenon calls for more devoted and concerted efforts towards finding ways to reduce the safety hazards that are seen to take place more often than before with the increase in the number of facilities that are prone to bring disaster and hazard coupled with the conventional safety problems that continue to exist even today. In developed countries, such challenge is addressed by various appropriate countermeasures drawn up by local professional committees on industrial facilities, whose members conduct offsite and onsite evaluation un the potential industrial disasters and its seriousness and provide their advice thereof. Against this backdrop, this study aims at identifying a comprehensive safety allowance level (safety acceptable level) when imposing limitation on the development of conventional or new facilities, for the fur pose of establishing a safety allowance level of disastrous and dangerous facilities in Korea. This is done by assessing and applying the level of danger each individual is exposed to in a randomly selected region (disastrous and dangerous areas in Seoul) based on probability of quantitative hazards, as well as simulation and calculation methods which include: i) social disaster evaluation method applying Quantified Risk Assessment of Health & Safety Executive of UK and Matrix of Risk of Evaluated Sources of Hazard; ii) Fault Tree or Event Tree Analysis and etc.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.285-291
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• 2016

Safety assessment is an essential activity for developing a system in the CNS/ATM domain. Up to now, there are many reference materials, but there is nothing that definitely specifies what to do and how to apply in the CNS/ATM. Another problem is that software assurance level has to be determined for a software under development. But there is nothing that defines a determination scheme of software assurance level. To solve these problems, this paper proposes a method to conduct a hazard assessment based on target level of safety defined in ICAO Doc 9689. To be applied generally in CNS/ATM domain, it mathematically defines procedures of hazard assessment. And it defines severity classification, probability, and safety objective of a system, which are necessary for hazard assessment, and it describes a method to apply event tree analysis process in order to conduct a hazard assessment.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.148-154
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• 2016

Safety assessment is necessary to develop safety related CNS/ATM system. It includes functional hazard assessment (FHA), effects eliciting system safety requirement that mitigates system's hazardous event. This paper performs a case study for functional hazard assessment of A-SMGCS. To do this, related A-SMGCS studies from Eurocontrol and EMMA are surveyed, and assessment schemes of functional hazard from Eurocontrol and EMMA are combined. Not only FHA scope but also several assumptions for FHA are defined for Incheon airport. 29 hazards are identified and their severities are assessed. And exposures and safety objectives from hazards are analyzed using event tree analysis method. Differences between result of this study and result of EMMA are analysed, and assessment results in this study are also reviewed.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.273-282
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• 2023

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been widely used to evaluate the seismic risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs). However, studies on seismic PSA for process plants, such as gas plants, oil refineries, and chemical plants, have been scarce. This is because the major disasters to which these process plants are vulnerable include explosions, fires, and release (or dispersion) of toxic chemicals. However, seismic PSA is essential for the plants located in regions with significant earthquake risks. Seismic PSA entails probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), event tree analysis (ETA), fault tree analysis (FTA), and fragility analysis for the structures and essential equipment items. Among those analyses, ETA can depict the accident sequence for core damage, which is the worst disaster and top event concerning NPPs. However, there is no general top event with regard to process plants. Therefore, PSA cannot be directly applied to process plants. Moreover, there is a paucity of studies on developing fragility curves for various equipment. This paper introduces PSA for gas plants based on FTA, which is then transformed into Bayesian network, that is, a probabilistic graph model that can aid risk-informed decision-making. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a gas plant, and several decision-making cases are demonstrated.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.40 no.5
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• pp.397-408
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• 2008

This paper describes the application of a software fault tree analysis (FTA) as one of the analysis techniques for a software safety analysis (SSA) at the design phase and its analysis results for the safety-critical software of a digital reactor protection system, which is called the KNICS RPS, being developed in the KNICS (Korea Nuclear Instrumentation & Control Systems) project. The software modules in the design description were represented by function blocks (FBs), and the software FTA was performed based on the well-defined fault tree templates for the FBs. The SSA, which is part of the verification and validation (V&V) activities, was activated at each phase of the software lifecycle for the KNICS RPS. At the design phase, the software HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) and the software FTA were employed in the SSA in such a way that the software HAZOP was performed first and then the software FTA was applied. The software FTA was applied to some critical modules selected from the software HAZOP analysis.