• Title/Summary/Keyword: HSPDA model

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Estimation of the Reliability of Water Distribution Systems using HSPDA Model and ADF Index (HSPDA 모형 및 ADF index를 이용한 상수관망의 신뢰도 산정)

  • Baek, Chun-Woo;Jun, Hwan-Don;Kim, Joong-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.201-210
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    • 2010
  • In this study, new methodology to estimate the reliability of a water distribution system using HSPDA model is suggested. In general, the reliability of a water distribution system can be determined by estimating either the ratio of the required demand to the available demand or the ratio of the number of nodes with sufficient pressure head to the number of nodes with insufficient pressure head when the abnormal operating condition occurs. To perform this approach, hydraulic analysis under the abnormal operating condition is essential. However, if the Demand-Driven Analysis (DDA) which is dependant on the assumption that the required demand at a demand node is always satisfied regardless of actual nodal pressure head is used to estimate the reliability of a water distribution system, the reliability may be underestimated due to the defect of the DDA. Therefore, it is necessary to apply the Pressure-Driven Analysis (PDA) having a different assumption to the DDA's which is that available nodal demand is proportion to nodal pressure head. However, because previous study used a semi-PDA model and the PDA model which had limited applicability depending on the characteristics of a network, proper estimation of the reliability of a water distribution system was impossible. Thus, in this study, a new methodology is suggested by using HSPDA model which can overcome weak points of existing PDA model and Available Demand Fraction (ADF) index to estimate the reliability. The HSPDA can simulate the hydraulic condition of a water distribution system under abnormal operating condition and based on the hydraulic condition simulated, ADF index at each node is calculated to quantify the reliability of a water distribution system. The suggested model is applied to sample networks and the results are compared with those of existing method to demonstrate its applicability.

Application of HSPDA Model to Large Water Network (HSPDA 모형의 대규모 상수관망에의 적용)

  • Baek, Chun-Woo;Jun, Hwan-Don;Kim, Joong-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.2084-2088
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    • 2007
  • 상수관망의 수리해석기법은 demand-driven analysis(DDA)와 pressure-driven analysis(PDA)로 구분할 수 있다. 관거 파괴나 용수수요 급증과 같이 용수공급시스템이 비정상상태인 경우 절점의 용수수요는 항상 만족한다는 가정을 사용하는 DDA의 경우 비현실적인 결과를 줄 수 있으며, 절점수요와 절점수두를 동시에 고려하는 PDA의 개념을 이용한 관망의 수리해석이 필요하다. PDA의 개념을 사용하여 개발된 기존의 많은 모형들은 복잡한 실제관망에는 적용이 불가능한 문제점들을 가지고 있으며, 본 연구에서는 화음탐색법(Harmony Search, HS) EPANET의 toolkit을 연계하여 개발된 HSPDA모형의 실제 대규모 상수관망에의 적용성을 검토하였다. 실제 대규모관망에의 적용성 향상을 위해 화음탐색법의 새로운 인자인 PIR를 제안하였으며 적용결과 새롭게 제안된 PIR은 HSPDA모형의 최적해탐색효율을 획기적으로 향상시켰으며, HSPDA모형을 이용한 실제 대규모관망의 비정상상태 수리모의가 가능한 것으로 판단된다.

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Estimating the Reliability of Water Distribution Systems Using HSPDA Model and Distance Measure Method (HSPDA모형과 거리척도방법을 이용한 상수관망의 신뢰성분석)

  • Baek, Chun-Woo;Jun, Hwan-Don;Kim, Joong-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.9
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    • pp.769-780
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    • 2010
  • Topological and hydraulic assessments to examine whether required demand and pressure are satisfied and using these assessed results as a criteria have been general methodology for reliability assessment of water distribution systems. However, many of existing studies that used nodal pressure calculated by hydraulic assessment for reliability assessment have two major issues to be solved. The one is that demand-driven analysis was used for hydraulic assessment and the other is that serviceability was not considered for reliability assessment. In addition, all of the studies used pressure-demand analysis which is suitable to hydraulic analysis for water distribution systems under abnormal operating condition considered only available nodal demand for reliability assessment. This means that advantages which can be obtained by pressure-driven analysis are not used properly and efficiently. In this study, new methodology for reliability assessment of water distribution systems using HSPDA model and distance measure method is suggested. This methodology considers both nodal pressure and nodal available demand for reliability assessment. Suggested methodology is applied to two water distribution systems to show its applicability and application results are compared with existing study.

A Study on Forecasting the Demand of WCDMA Mobile Phones (WCDMA 이동통신 단말기 수요예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Hoon;Lee, Byoung-Chul;Kim, Yun-Bae;Kim, Jae-Bum
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.153-160
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    • 2006
  • The demand of domestic mobile service has been explosively increasing. The forthcoming WCDMA, which open in 2006, is also a key technology in the mobile service market. The WCDMA service needs HSPDA phones which will be evolved to HSDPA. In the aspect of drawing up management strategy, practical researches about forecasting the demands of new mobile phones are necessary. In this paper, we provide the modified the Lotka-volterra model as a forecasting model, which is concerned with effects of phone prices and performance.

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Perceptional Change of a New Product, DMB Phone

  • Kim, Ju-Young;Ko, Deok-Im
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.59-88
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    • 2008
  • Digital Convergence means integration between industry, technology, and contents, and in marketing, it usually comes with creation of new types of product and service under the base of digital technology as digitalization progress in electro-communication industries including telecommunication, home appliance, and computer industries. One can see digital convergence not only in instruments such as PC, AV appliances, cellular phone, but also in contents, network, service that are required in production, modification, distribution, re-production of information. Convergence in contents started around 1990. Convergence in network and service begins as broadcasting and telecommunication integrates and DMB(digital multimedia broadcasting), born in May, 2005 is the symbolic icon in this trend. There are some positive and negative expectations about DMB. The reason why two opposite expectations exist is that DMB does not come out from customer's need but from technology development. Therefore, customers might have hard time to interpret the real meaning of DMB. Time is quite critical to a high tech product, like DMB because another product with same function from different technology can replace the existing product within short period of time. If DMB does not positioning well to customer's mind quickly, another products like Wibro, IPTV, or HSPDA could replace it before it even spreads out. Therefore, positioning strategy is critical for success of DMB product. To make correct positioning strategy, one needs to understand how consumer interprets DMB and how consumer's interpretation can be changed via communication strategy. In this study, we try to investigate how consumer perceives a new product, like DMB and how AD strategy change consumer's perception. More specifically, the paper segment consumers into sub-groups based on their DMB perceptions and compare their characteristics in order to understand how they perceive DMB. And, expose them different printed ADs that have messages guiding consumer think DMB in specific ways, either cellular phone or personal TV. Research Question 1: Segment consumers according to perceptions about DMB and compare characteristics of segmentations. Research Question 2: Compare perceptions about DMB after AD that induces categorization of DMB in direction for each segment. If one understand and predict a direction in which consumer perceive a new product, firm can select target customers easily. We segment consumers according to their perception and analyze characteristics in order to find some variables that can influence perceptions, like prior experience, usage, or habit. And then, marketing people can use this variables to identify target customers and predict their perceptions. If one knows how customer's perception is changed via AD message, communication strategy could be constructed properly. Specially, information from segmented customers helps to develop efficient AD strategy for segment who has prior perception. Research framework consists of two measurements and one treatment, O1 X O2. First observation is for collecting information about consumer's perception and their characteristics. Based on first observation, the paper segment consumers into two groups, one group perceives DMB similar to Cellular phone and the other group perceives DMB similar to TV. And compare characteristics of two segments in order to find reason why they perceive DMB differently. Next, we expose two kinds of AD to subjects. One AD describes DMB as Cellular phone and the other Ad describes DMB as personal TV. When two ADs are exposed to subjects, consumers don't know their prior perception of DMB, in other words, which subject belongs 'similar-to-Cellular phone' segment or 'similar-to-TV' segment? However, we analyze the AD's effect differently for each segment. In research design, final observation is for investigating AD effect. Perception before AD is compared with perception after AD. Comparisons are made for each segment and for each AD. For the segment who perceives DMB similar to TV, AD that describes DMB as cellular phone could change the prior perception. And AD that describes DMB as personal TV, could enforce the prior perception. For data collection, subjects are selected from undergraduate students because they have basic knowledge about most digital equipments and have open attitude about a new product and media. Total number of subjects is 240. In order to measure perception about DMB, we use indirect measurement, comparison with other similar digital products. To select similar digital products, we pre-survey students and then finally select PDA, Car-TV, Cellular Phone, MP3 player, TV, and PSP. Quasi experiment is done at several classes under instructor's allowance. After brief introduction, prior knowledge, awareness, and usage about DMB as well as other digital instruments is asked and their similarities and perceived characteristics are measured. And then, two kinds of manipulated color-printed AD are distributed and similarities and perceived characteristics for DMB are re-measured. Finally purchase intension, AD attitude, manipulation check, and demographic variables are asked. Subjects are given small gift for participation. Stimuli are color-printed advertising. Their actual size is A4 and made after several pre-test from AD professionals and students. As results, consumers are segmented into two subgroups based on their perceptions of DMB. Similarity measure between DMB and cellular phone and similarity measure between DMB and TV are used to classify consumers. If subject whose first measure is less than the second measure, she is classified into segment A and segment A is characterized as they perceive DMB like TV. Otherwise, they are classified as segment B, who perceives DMB like cellular phone. Discriminant analysis on these groups with their characteristics of usage and attitude shows that Segment A knows much about DMB and uses a lot of digital instrument. Segment B, who thinks DMB as cellular phone doesn't know well about DMB and not familiar with other digital instruments. So, consumers with higher knowledge perceive DMB similar to TV because launching DMB advertising lead consumer think DMB as TV. Consumers with less interest on digital products don't know well about DMB AD and then think DMB as cellular phone. In order to investigate perceptions of DMB as well as other digital instruments, we apply Proxscal analysis, Multidimensional Scaling technique at SPSS statistical package. At first step, subjects are presented 21 pairs of 7 digital instruments and evaluate similarity judgments on 7 point scale. And for each segment, their similarity judgments are averaged and similarity matrix is made. Secondly, Proxscal analysis of segment A and B are done. At third stage, get similarity judgment between DMB and other digital instruments after AD exposure. Lastly, similarity judgments of group A-1, A-2, B-1, and B-2 are named as 'after DMB' and put them into matrix made at the first stage. Then apply Proxscal analysis on these matrixes and check the positional difference of DMB and after DMB. The results show that map of segment A, who perceives DMB similar as TV, shows that DMB position closer to TV than to Cellular phone as expected. Map of segment B, who perceive DMB similar as cellular phone shows that DMB position closer to Cellular phone than to TV as expected. Stress value and R-square is acceptable. And, change results after stimuli, manipulated Advertising show that AD makes DMB perception bent toward Cellular phone when Cellular phone-like AD is exposed, and that DMB positioning move towards Car-TV which is more personalized one when TV-like AD is exposed. It is true for both segment, A and B, consistently. Furthermore, the paper apply correspondence analysis to the same data and find almost the same results. The paper answers two main research questions. The first one is that perception about a new product is made mainly from prior experience. And the second one is that AD is effective in changing and enforcing perception. In addition to above, we extend perception change to purchase intention. Purchase intention is high when AD enforces original perception. AD that shows DMB like TV makes worst intention. This paper has limitations and issues to be pursed in near future. Methodologically, current methodology can't provide statistical test on the perceptual change, since classical MDS models, like Proxscal and correspondence analysis are not probability models. So, a new probability MDS model for testing hypothesis about configuration needs to be developed. Next, advertising message needs to be developed more rigorously from theoretical and managerial perspective. Also experimental procedure could be improved for more realistic data collection. For example, web-based experiment and real product stimuli and multimedia presentation could be employed. Or, one can display products together in simulated shop. In addition, demand and social desirability threats of internal validity could influence on the results. In order to handle the threats, results of the model-intended advertising and other "pseudo" advertising could be compared. Furthermore, one can try various level of innovativeness in order to check whether it make any different results (cf. Moon 2006). In addition, if one can create hypothetical product that is really innovative and new for research, it helps to make a vacant impression status and then to study how to form impression in more rigorous way.

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