• Food Science and Biotechnology
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• 제17권6호
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• pp.1352-1356
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• 2008

Bootstrap method, a computer-intensive statistical technique to estimate the distribution of a statistic was applied to deal with uncertainty and variability of the experimental data in stochastic prediction modeling of microbial growth on a chill-stored food. Three different bootstrapping methods for the curve-fitting to the microbial count data were compared in determining the parameters of Baranyi and Roberts growth model: nonlinear regression to static version function with resampling residuals onto all the experimental microbial count data; static version regression onto mean counts at sampling times; dynamic version fitting of differential equations onto the bootstrapped mean counts. All the methods outputted almost same mean values of the parameters with difference in their distribution. Parameter search according to the dynamic form of differential equations resulted in the largest distribution of the model parameters but produced the confidence interval of the predicted microbial count close to those of nonlinear regression of static equation.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.103-118
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• 2015

The purpose of this paper is to discuss possibilities of applying growth curve models, such as Logistic, Log-Logistic, Log-Normal, Gompertz and Weibull, to three specific technology areas of Fishery Science and Technology in the process of measuring their technology level between Korea and countries with the state-of-the art level. Technology areas of hazard control of organism, environment restoration, and fish cluster detect were selected for this study. Expert panel survey was conducted to construct relevant panel data for years of 2013, 2016, and a future time of approaching the theoretical maximum technology level. The size of data was 70, 70 and 40 respectively. First finding is that estimation of shape and location parameters of each model was statistically significant, and lack-of-fit test using estimated parameters was statistically rejected for each model, meaning all models were good enough to apply for measuring technology levels. Second, three models other than Pearl and Gompertz seemed very appropriate to apply despite the fact that previous case studies have used only Gompertz and Pearl. This study suggests that Weibull model would be a very valid candidate for the purpose. Third, fish cluster detect technology level is relatively higher for both Korea and a country with the state-of-the-art among three areas as of 2013. However, all three areas seem to be approaching their limits(highest technology level point) until 2020 for countries with the state-of-the-art. This implies that Korea might have to speed up her research activities in order to catch up them prior to 2020. Final suggestion is that future study may better apply various and more appropriate models respectively considering each technology characteristics and other factors.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제50권3호
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• pp.349-371
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• 2022

Purpose: Compared to the rapid growth rate of the domestic automotive LED industry so far, the predictive analysis method for demand forecasting or market outlook was insufficient. Accordingly, product characteristics are analyzed through the life trend of LEDs for automotive exterior lamps and the relative strengths of p and q using the Bass model. Also, future demands are predicted. Methods: We used sales data of a leading company in domestic market of automotive LEDs. Considering the autocorrelation error term of this data, parameters m, p, and q were estimated through the modified estimation method of OLS and the NLS(Nonlinear Least Squares) method, and the optimal method was selected by comparing prediction error performance such as RMSE. Future annual demands and cumulative demands were predicted through the growth curve obtained from Bass-NLS model. In addition, various nonlinear growth curve models were applied to the data to compare the Bass-NLS model with potential market demand, and an optimal model was derived. Results: From the analysis, the parameter estimation results by Bass-NLS obtained m=1338.13, p=0.0026, q=0.3003. If the current trend continues, domestic automotive LED market is predicted to reach its maximum peak in 2021 and the maximum demand is $102.23M. Potential market demand was $1338.13M. In the nonlinear growth curve model analysis, the Gompertz model was selected as the optimal model, and the potential market size was $2864.018M. Conclusion: It is expected that the Bass-NLS method will be applied to LED sales data for automotive to find out the characteristics of the relative strength of q/p of products and to be used to predict current demand and future cumulative demand.

• The Korean Journal of Ceramics
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• 제3권4호
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• pp.257-262
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• 1997

Aluminum nitride(AIN) thin films were deposited on SiO$_2$/Si substrates by reactive sputtering for the application of SAW devices. The major deposition parameters such as pressure, nitrogen fraction, rf power, substrate distance were changed to find out the optimal condition for c-axis oriented thin films on an amorphous substrate. The effects of deposition parameters on the crystal structure, residual stress, and growth morphology of thin films were characterized by XRD, SEM, and TEM. The FWHM of (002) rocking curve of the films deposited at the proper condition was lower than 2.2$^{\circ}$(C=0.93$^{\circ}$). Cross-sectional TEM showed that self-aligned structure was developed just after slightly random growth at the initial stage. The frequency characteristics of test device fabricated from AIN thin films confirmed their piezoelectric property and applicability for SAW devices.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• 제44권5호
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• pp.519-522
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• 2002

농협 한우 개량부에서 시험 사육한 거세우 및 비거세우 각각 60두의 자료를 근거로 곰페르츠 방정식에 의한 성장곡선을 추정한 결과 비거세우의 성장곡선 방정식은 $W_t$ = 906.1.exp{－3.956.exp(－0.0034t)}이었으며, 거세우의 성장곡선 방정식은 $W_t$ = 823.1.exp{－3.301.exp(－0.0027t}이었다. 이 추정식에 의한 성숙체중은 과거에 추정한 식보다 높게 추정되었는데 이는 사양조건의 차이에 의한 것으로 사료된다. 비거세우에 대한 거세우의 체중비는 19.5개월까지는 급격히 감소하여 79.2% 정도에 이르렀으나, 이후 격차는 서서히 줄어들어 성숙시에는 90.8%에 이르렀다. 추정식은 생시 체중이 거세우의 경우 과다하게 그리고 비거세우의 경우 과소하게 추정되었으며, 실제 체중의 변이는 비거세우가 거세우에 비해 큰 경향을 보였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.87-100
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• 2002

Poorly-posed problems in the balanced discriminant analysis was considered. We restrict consideration to the case of observations and the number of variables are the same and small. When these problems exist, we do not use a maximum likelihood estimates(MLE) to estimate covariance matrices. Instead of MLE, an alternative estimate for the covariance matrices are proposed. This alternative method make good use of two regularization parameters, $\lambda$} and $\gamma$. A new test rule for the discriminant function is suggested and examined via limited hut informative simulation study. From the simulation study, it is shown that the suggested test rule gives better test result than other previously suggested method in terms of error rate criterion.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.165-170
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• 2002

본 연구는 한우의 성장형태 분석을 위한 성장곡선 모수 추정시 이용하는 체중 측정자료의 최적 월령을 결정하기 위해 실시하였다. 분석에 이용한 자료는 농협 한우개량부에서 사육된 한우 수소 1,133두의 일령별 체중자료를 이용하였으며, 비선형 회귀모형인 Gompertz 모형으로 성장곡선을 추정하였다. 24개월까지 측정한 자료에 대해 14개월부터 2개월 단위로 최종 자료입력 시기를 분할한 6개의 측정종료 월령별 체중자료에 대해 추정한 성장곡선 모수 가운데 성숙체중(A)은 22개월령과 24개월령의 추정치 평균간 차이에 유의성이 없었으며, 성숙률(k) 추정치는 18-24개월령의 추정치 평균간 차이가 유의성이 없는 것으로 나타났다.(p$<$0.05). 측정종료 월령별 성숙체중(A) 추정치간의 상관 계수는 22개월령과 24개월령간에 0.93으로 가장 높게 나타났으며, 성숙률(k) 추정치간의 상관계수는 18-24개월령간에 0.91-0.99로 높게 나타났다(p$<$0.05). 성숙체중과 성숙률 추정치간의 상관은 12개월령의 경우 0.84로 높게 추정되었으나, 22개월령과 24개월령의 경우 0.12 및 0.10으로 추정되어 체중자료의 최종입력 시기가 연장됨에 따라 추정 모수간의 상관이 낮아지는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 한우의 체중 성장 형태를 분석하기 위한 성장곡선 추정을 위한 자료의 최종 입력시기의 최적 월령은 22개월령 이상으로 사료된다.

• 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.483-491
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• 2010

본 논문에서는 점탄성 재료의 피로균열 성장을 분석하기 위해 ${\Delta}J$-적분을 이용하였다. J-적분의 계산 시 기존의 수치해석 방법이 아닌 해석적인 적분 해를 도출하여 계산시간을 절감하고 정확도를 크게 높였다. 계산 시 응력확대계수는 특정 균열에 대해 참조하는 방법이 아닌 유한요소해석을 통해 구하는 방법을 사용하였다. 기존의 ${\Delta}K$를 이용한 피로균열 예측과는 달리 크리프 변형계수, 단 두 개의 피로성장 모델 변수만을 가지고 다양한 하중과 하중주기에서의 피로균열 성장을 성공적으로 분석할 수 있었다.

• 한국소성가공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국소성가공학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.174-177
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• 2004

The nickel-based alloy Nimonic 80A possesses strength, and corrosion, creep and oxidation resistance at high temperature. These products are used for aerospace, marine engineering and power generation, etc. The control of forging parameters such as strain, strain rate, temperature and holding time is important because the microstructure change in hot working affects the mechanical properties. It is necessary to understand the microstructure variation evolution. The microstructure change evolution occurs by recovery, recrystallization and grain growth phenomena. The dynamic recrystallization evolution has been studied in the temperature range $950-1250^{\circ}C$ and strain rate range $0.05-5s^{-1}$ using hot compression tests. The metadynamic recrystallization and grain growth evolution has been studied in the temperature range $950-1250^{\circ}C$ and strain rate range 0.05, $5s^{-1}$, holding time range 5, 10, 100, 600 sec using hot compression tests. Modeling equations are developed to represent the flow curve, recrystallized grain size, recrystallized fraction and grain growth phenomena by various tests. Parameters of modeling equation are expressed as a function of the Zener-Hollomon parameter. The modeling equation for grain growth is expressed as a function of initial grain size and holding time.

• 한국가금학회지
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• 제49권4호
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• pp.229-237
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• 2022

본 연구는 신품종 토종종계로부터 생산된 토종실용닭 4계통의 성장 특성을 규명하고 출하일령 추정에 적합한 모형을 제시하고자 실시하였다. 체중은 발생시부터 12주령까지 2주 간격으로 개체별로 측정하였으며 성장곡선의 추정은 Von Berteralanffy, Gompertz 및 Logistic 모형을 이용하였다. 분석 결과, 발생시 체중을 제외한 모든 주령에서 수컷이 암컷보다 무겁게 나타났고, 계통 간 체중은발생시, 2주령 및 6주령을 제외하고는 차이가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 모든 성장곡선 모형의 결정계수와 수정된 결정계수는 97.4~99.7로 높은 적합도를 나타내었다. 성장곡선 모수 중성숙체중과 성장률은 수컷이 암컷보다 높게 나타났고, 성숙률은 암컷과 수컷이 비슷한 값을 보였다. 변곡점은 모형과 계통 별 차이가 있으나 암컷은 약 7주령, 수컷은 8~9주령으로 나타나 성별 간 10일 정도의 차이를 나타내었다. 성장곡선 모형의 거의 대부분은 실제 체중과 잘 일치하나, Von Bertalanffy 모형에서 수컷의 체중이 실제 체중과 다소의 차이를 보였다. 출하일령 예측을 위한 회귀함수의 결정계수는 0.9583~0.9746으로 나타나 예측 값에 대한 신뢰도가 높게 나타났다. 성장 곡선과 회귀식을 사용하여 추정한 주령 별 체중 값은 8주령과 10주령은 회귀식을 이용한 추정 값이, 12주령 체중은 Logistic 모형으로 추정한 값이 실제 체중과 가장 비슷하게 나타났다. 이러한 성장곡선에 따른 토종닭의 2 kg 도달일령의 평균 예측일수는 수컷이 62.0~64.6일, 암컷은 74.9~78.6일로 추정된다.