• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.25-36
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• 2005

In this study, we suggested a new approach method forecasting distribution demand of urban rail transit usign fuzzy control, with intend to reflect irregularity and various functional relationship between trip length and distribution demand. To establish fuzzy control model and test this model, the actual trip volume(production, attraction and distribution volume) and trip length (space distance between a departure and arrival station) of Daegu subway line 1 were used. Firstly, usign these data we established a fuzzy control model, nd the estimation accuracy of the model was examined and compared with that of generalized gravity model. The results showed that the fuzzy control model was superior to gravity model in accuracy of estimation. Therefore, wwe found that fuzzy control was able to be applied as a effective method to predict the distribution demand of urban rail transit. Finally, to increase the estimation precision of the model, we expect studies that define membership functions and set up fuzzy rules organized with neural networks.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.1003-1004
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• 2012

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.19-28
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• 2009

In case of land development projects constructed, to solve induced transportation volume needs analysis of traffic demand. Trip-generation of land development projects is exactly predicted by using traffic instigating-basic-unit in each facility of land developments. But in case of a phase of trip-distribution, because a range of destinations is very enormous and it needs enormous data to reflect all of its characters, whenever trip-distribution is predicted, the method which assumes the rate of trip-distribution is same both before completion of land development projects and after is often used. But because there is no exact criterion, the method suggested above is also affected by subjective opinion. Accordingly, this study look over using trip-distribution of specific areas's DB and suggests a size of zone to predict a distribution of land development projects exactly. Also production - constrained gravity model which uses the gap between a distribution of suggested ranges and induced land development project is suggested for more exact prediction of trip-distribution. Besides accuracy of prediction is scrutinized by using Mean Squared Error.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.97-112
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• 2012

This study aims to analyse determinants of payment balance of Korea, targeting 65 countries which concluded FTA with Korea in 2012 or are pursuing it with Korea( effectuation, agreement, negotiation and joint research). For an analysis model, economic and geographical variables of target countries were included in explanatory variables of the gravity model and divided values which indicate surpluses or deficits in trade with Korea were marked in dependent variables to perform a logistic analysis. If payment balance in trade between Korea and specific countries is a surplus, a value of 1 is given and if it is a deficit, a value of 0 is given. As a result of estimating the logit model, it was discovered that variables of GDP, GDP per person, total trade with trade partners, petroleum, landlocked countries and maritime powers were not statistically significant. However, variables of total trade, export dependency, import dependency, distance and mineral were statistically significant.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.67-86
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• 2012

In this paper, we explore the effects of Korean Wave (Hanryu) on the Korea's export by using the gravity model in which we use independent variables such as real GDP, population, distance between the two nation, and Korean Wave. Among these, the Korean Wave can be classified into 5 categories according to the progress stage of Korean Wave which was analysed by KOTRA(2011). The data set has covered 67 countries in 2010. The results show that the Korean Wave has the positive impact on Korea's export. Also, that impact is getting bigger to the Korea exportation as the stage of Korean Wave spreads to the world. These results implies that the Korean Wave plays an important role to promote the Korea's exportation. Therefore, the Koreans should do their best to continuously expand the Korean Wave for the purpose of increasing Korea exportation.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.3-18
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• 2018

This paper analyzes both the FTA effects and FTA spillover effects on bilateral trade using 62 countries' panel data during the period of 2003 ~ 2013. To this end, we construct a FTA dummy variable for the effect of FTA in the model and the weighted FTA matrix interacted with export and import for the spillover effect of FTA. Gravity model is applied to the empirical analysis with GMM, fixed and random effects, and PPML estimation. As a result of the analysis, FTA variables have positive relationships with bilateral export and import. The weighted FTA matrix interacted with export and import also have positive signs on the bilateral export and import in all estimations. Thus, we conclude that various FTAs of neighbor or 3rd countries increase the bilateral export and import. We provide some implications that a country to increase the amount of trade has a trade relationship with the countries having various FTAs and for the FTA effect analysis, the three-country model is better than to the two-country model.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.187-201
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to examine the current situation of Korean shipbuilding industry and the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) in this field. This paper uses empirical research models including a panel gravity model based on trade, gross domestic product, purchasing power parity, population, distance, and implementation of FTA. According to the results of the analysis, FTAs have a positive influence on the Korean shipbuilding industry. Therefore, the Korean government needs to work positively in order to sign FTAs and provide support for the industry and related businesses to grow.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.145-160
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• 2021

This study attempted to analyze the trade in goods effect of the Korea-ASEAN FTA by using logistics performance index, which are evaluation indicators of logistics industry workers on the logistics environment and logistics system in international trade. The World Bank's logistics performance index are six indicators: customs clearance, logistics infra, ease of shipment, logistics services, goods tracking abilities, and on-time transportation. The purpose of this study was to examine how it affects commodity trade between Korea and ASEAN states using the gravity model using panel data. Through this, it was confirmed that logistics performance index affect the increase in commodity trade.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.78-85
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• 2004

The non-planned development of the rural area surrounding the Metropolitan area has become a social problem. The land development program until now has an aspect of not combining the spacial plan and the environmental plan. The land use and city development system based on development should change into a form that combines developing the area and conserving the environment. Therefore, this research attempts to compare the results of the overlay analysis and the gravity matrix which are ways to evaluate the value land that has a high environmental conservation value. The research area is the town of Seonggeo-eup, Cheonan City, and the reason for selecting this area is because it is expected to be densely populated as a connected area to the Metropolitan and the development pressure, such as expanding the industrial area, is high due to convenient transportation. The environmental factors used in the research are the relative altitude, incline, age-class, natural degree of the ecology, classification of the land covering and the NDVI, and the research methods used are the overlay analysis of the GIS and the statistical method. The overlay analysis results showed level 1 13.2%, level 2 30.7%, level 3 47.4%, level 4 1.0%, level 5 2.4%, level 6 5.4% and so on. The gravity matrix was classified as level 1 27.0%, level 2 9.3%, level 3 58.2%, level 4 2.4%, level 5 2.3%, level 6 0.9% and so on. These results are more appropriate than current methods for plans that value the environment because the analyzed results of the gravity matrix have a tendency to highly condense the environmentally valuable area. Consequently, if the spacial and environmental plans combine and therefore expand the efficient use of the land in the current state where the nation's concern in environment is getting higher, it is thought that it will contribute highly on the development of the nation's life quality.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.40 no.6
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• pp.485-494
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• 2016

The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the impact and determinants of bilateral Free Trade Agreements on international total bulk shipment trade volume at the port of Korea using the Panel Gravity Model. The model estimates the aggregated panel data of exports and imports (excluding transshipment) as a dependent variable during the period from 1996 to 2015. GDP, GDP per capita, distances between bilateral countries, and FTA dummies are included as independent variables. And the economic integration of FTAs including ASEAN+3 and NAFTA3 countries were used as dummy variables. Study results show that GDP and GDP per capita have positive impacts on bulk shipment trade volume at the port of Korea. In addition, Korea's bilateral FTAs with Singapore, India and the United States have positive effects on total bulk trade volume in Korea. This is the so called trade creation effect. On the other hand, ASEAN+3 and NAFTA have negative effects on the total bulk trade. This is the so called trade diversion effect. Also, the distance between Korea and its trade partners has a negative impact. These findings provide insights for: further academic research, site operators who work in related trade and maritime sectors, and policy makers engaged in port and maritime operations. The results can be used to develop strategies for maximizing bulk port throughput.