• Title, Summary, Keyword: Granger Causality

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Causality change between Korea and other major equity markets

  • Kwon, Tae Yeon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.397-409
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    • 2018
  • The world financial markets are inter-linked in ways that varies according to market and time. We examine the causality of change focusing on the Korean market as related to the U.S. (S&P 500), Japan (Nikkei 225), Hong-Kong (HSI), and European (DAX) markets. In order to capture time-varying causality running from and to the Korea stock market, we apply the Granger causality test under a VAR model with a wild bootstrap rolling-window approach. We also propose a new concept of a significant causality ratio to measure the intensity of the Granger causality in each time unit. There are many asymmetric strengths in mutual Granger causal relationships. Moreover, there are cases with significant Granger causal relations only in one direction. The period with the most severe Granger causality both running from and to the KOSPI market is the GFC. The market that formed the two-way Granger causal relationship with the KOSPI market for the longest period is the S&P 500. The HSI and DAX markets have the strongest two-way Granger causal relationship with the KOSPI shortly after 2000, and the Nikkei market had the strongest two-way Granger causal relationship with the KOSPI market before the Asian financial crisis.

Analysis of Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption, Production and Export in Domestic Manufacturing Sector (국내 제조업부문의 에너지소비, 생산, 수출간의 인과관계 분석)

  • Kim, Suyi
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.37-56
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed the mutual causal relationship between energy consumption, production, and export for manufacturing industry in Korea. The Korean manufacturing industry was divided into nine industries and panel data was constructed from 1991 to 2013. The panel Granger causality test method developed by Demitrescu and Hurlin (2012) was used along with the Vector Error Correction Model. This analysis showed that there was Granger Causality from production to energy consumption, from exports to energy consumption. However, Granger Causality was not established in the opposite direction. Therefore, this result supports the conservation hypothesis of Qzturk (2010) that energy-saving policies in the manufacturing sector can be implemented without adverse effects on production or exports in short-run. There is a long-run cointegrating relationship between production, energy consumption, exports, labor, and capital in the Korean manufacturing sector. Furthermore, the energy consumption contributes to the increasing of production in long-run equilibrium relationship.

Integrating Granger Causality and Vector Auto-Regression for Traffic Prediction of Large-Scale WLANs

  • Lu, Zheng;Zhou, Chen;Wu, Jing;Jiang, Hao;Cui, Songyue
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.136-151
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    • 2016
  • Flexible large-scale WLANs are now widely deployed in crowded and highly mobile places such as campus, airport, shopping mall and company etc. But network management is hard for large-scale WLANs due to highly uneven interference and throughput among links. So the traffic is difficult to predict accurately. In the paper, through analysis of traffic in two real large-scale WLANs, Granger Causality is found in both scenarios. In combination with information entropy, it shows that the traffic prediction of target AP considering Granger Causality can be more predictable than that utilizing target AP alone, or that of considering irrelevant APs. So We develops new method -Granger Causality and Vector Auto-Regression (GCVAR), which takes APs series sharing Granger Causality based on Vector Auto-regression (VAR) into account, to predict the traffic flow in two real scenarios, thus redundant and noise introduced by multivariate time series could be removed. Experiments show that GCVAR is much more effective compared to that of traditional univariate time series (e.g. ARIMA, WARIMA). In particular, GCVAR consumes two orders of magnitude less than that caused by ARIMA/WARIMA.

The Causality of Ocean Freight (운임의 인과성)

  • Mo, Soo-Won
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.216-227
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    • 2007
  • The aim of this paper is to find out the nature of causality between the two ocean freights employing the Granger method. That is because the Baltic freights tend to move very closely and seem to be behave like one time series. The Granger causality test, however, is very sensitive to the number of lags used in the analysis. This means that one has to be very careful in implementing the Granger causality test. This paper, hence, uses more rather than the lags which the Akaike Information Criterion and the Schwarz Information Criterion suggest. This study shows that BPI does not "Granger-cause" BCI and BSI, but BCI and BSI Granger-cause BPI. I also discover that BHSI does not "Granger-cause" BPI and BSI, but BPI and BSI Granger-cause BHSI. I, hence, model and estimate the ocean freight function and show that the Baltic ocean freight market is inefficient and the biased estimator of the other freight.

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Investigation on Granger Causality between Economic Growth and Demand for Electricity in Korea: Using Quarterly Data (한국의 경제성장과 전력수요간의 인과성에 관한 연구: 분기별 자료를 이용하여)

  • Baek, Moon-Young;Kim, Woo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.89-99
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    • 2012
  • This study investigates the Granger-causality between economic growth and demand for electricity in Korea, using two quarterly time-series data (real GDP and electricity consumption) for 1970:Q1 through 2009:Q4. We apply Hsiao's sequential procedure to identify a vector autoregressive model to a decision of the optimal lags in the vector error-correction model because the two time-series data contain unit roots respectively and they are cointegrated. According to the empirical results in this study, we find that Hsiao's approach to the Granger-causality indicates a bidirectional causal relation between economic growth and demand for electricity in Korea. Following the Granger and Engle's approach, we also find the statistical evidence on (1) short-run bidirectional causality between real GDP and electricity consumption, (2) bidirectional strong causality between them, and (3) long-run unidirectional causality running from demand for electricity to economic growth. Our results show an inconsistency with the existing studies on Korea's case; however, the results appear to provide more meaningful policy implications for the Korean economy and its strategy of sustainable growth.

Nonparametric Granger Causality Test

  • Jeong, Ki-ho;Nishiyama, Yoshihiko
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.195-210
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    • 2007
  • This paper develops a consistent nonparametric test for Granger causality in the context of strong-mixing process, which covers a large class of stationary processes including ARMA and ARCH models. The previously proposed tests require absolute regularity ($\beta$-mixing) more stringent than the strong-mixing condition. We prove the consistency of the test under a high level assumption on the approximation error of U statistic by its projection. Due to the sample splitting, the test statistic we propose is asymptotically normally distributed under the null.

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A Causality Analysis between R&D Investment and Technology Trade (R&D 투자와 기술무역 간의 인과관계 분석)

  • Pak, Cheolmin;Ku, Bonchul
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.91-113
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship among R&D spending and variables of technology trade, and to explore promoting R&D activities and revitalizing technology trade. To analyze the causal relationship, we built a multivariate model that consists of government R&D spending, private R&D spending, technical importation and export of techniques, and employed the Granger-causality test based on an error correction model. The results show that there are five Granger-causality relationship among them in the short run, as well as there are eleven Granger-causality relationship among a total of twelve causal relationship, excluding only a unidirectional causality relationship from the government R&D spending to the export of techniques, in the long run. Besides, we attempted the impulse-response analysis on them to observe the reaction of any dynamic system in response to some external change. The significance of this paper is to make sure the causal relationship between R&D investments and the technology trade by analyzing empirically, and to suggest several implications for promoting the R&D activities and revitalizing the technology trade.

Does Telecommunications Investment Cause Economic Growth: Evidence from Korea

  • Yoo, Seung-Hoon;Jung, Kun-Oh
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • pp.141-158
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    • 2001
  • This paper examines the causality issue between telecommunications investment and economic growth for South Korea by applying recently developed time series techniques. Tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger causality are presented. The results show that hi-directional causality runs from telecommunications investment to economic growth for South Korea. This means that increased telecommunications investment directly affects economic growth and an increase in real income also influences telecommunications investment. The study also discusses the implications of the results for addressing telecommunications policy in South Korea.

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The Nexus between Urbanization, Gross Capital Formation and Economic Growth: A Study of Saudi Arabia

  • KHAN, Uzma
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.677-682
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    • 2020
  • To investigate the nexus between urban population, gross capital formation, and economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, yearly data was collected from the World Bank for the period 1974- 2018. Basic statistics test and correlation matrix was used to investigate the causal effect among the tested parameters, followed by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationary test, co-integration analysis by Johansen test after that Vector Auto-Correction Model for both short-run and long-run and finally the Granger-Causality tests. Result of unit root test analysis shows that the urban population became stationary at I (0) level while economic growth and gross capital formation became stationary at I (1). Johansen co-integration analysis indicates that there is presence of both long-run and short-run relationship between the three variables in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The result of the VECM Model reflects that both economic growth and gross capital formation have a negative impact on urban population in the short run. According to the Granger-Causality tests, there is unidirectional causality with the urban population by both gross capital formation and economic growth. Also, the result of the Granger Causality tests show that there is unidirectional causality between economic growth and gross capital formations.

External Debt and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Study of Granger Causality in Developing Countries

  • ZHANG, Biqiong;DAWOOD, Muhammad;AL-ASFOUR, Ahmed
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.607-617
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    • 2020
  • This study investigates the causal relationship between public and private external debt and economic growth in developing countries. Our model includes 18 selected Asian developing and transition economies from 1995 thru 2019. We employ the dynamic heterogeneous panel data methods, pooled mean group (PMG), robust cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL), and pairwise panel causality test. The results of PMG and CS-ARDL show the existence of causality between external debt and economic growth both in the short-run and long-run. The pairwise Granger causality test found the bidirectional causal relationship runs from total external debt, public external debt, and private external debt to economic growth and economic growth to external debt. The results showed first the existence of causality in the short-run and long-run between external debt and economic growth and the second, bi-directional causality that runs from external debt to economic growth and economic growth to external debt. Both the dynamic models and robust estimator found the same inferences about the impact of main variables on economic growth in Asian developing and transition economies. The findings of this study suggest to assure debt management, investment in productive sectors, increase domestic savings, decrease external dependency, and focus on international trade.