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PERFORMANCE OF THE AUTOREGRESSIVE METHOD IN LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF SUNSPOT NUMBER

  • Chae, Jongchul;Kim, Yeon Han
    • 천문학회지
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    • 제50권2호
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2017
  • The autoregressive method provides a univariate procedure to predict the future sunspot number (SSN) based on past record. The strength of this method lies in the possibility that from past data it yields the SSN in the future as a function of time. On the other hand, its major limitation comes from the intrinsic complexity of solar magnetic activity that may deviate from the linear stationary process assumption that is the basis of the autoregressive model. By analyzing the residual errors produced by the method, we have obtained the following conclusions: (1) the optimal duration of the past time for the forecast is found to be 8.5 years; (2) the standard error increases with prediction horizon and the errors are mostly systematic ones resulting from the incompleteness of the autoregressive model; (3) there is a tendency that the predicted value is underestimated in the activity rising phase, while it is overestimated in the declining phase; (5) the model prediction of a new Solar Cycle is fairly good when it is similar to the previous one, but is bad when the new cycle is much different from the previous one; (6) a reasonably good prediction of a new cycle can be made using the AR model 1.5 years after the start of the cycle. In addition, we predict the next cycle (Solar Cycle 25) will reach the peak in 2024 at the activity level similar to the current cycle.

Impacts of Social Media (Facebook) on Human Communication and Relationships: A View on Behavioral Change and Social Unity

  • Joo, Tang-Mui;Teng, Chan-Eang
    • International Journal of Knowledge Content Development & Technology
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    • 제7권4호
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    • pp.27-50
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    • 2017
  • The impact of social networking is varied from good to bad. Online activities have also been categorized into pros and cons of social networking, either as reported as hiding Internet activities among teenagers or killing loneliness among elderly. In terms of relationships, there have been argument over its closeness and quality of an online relationship in Internet settings. Looking at the contradiction in an innovative interaction between classic community communication and social media, there is an unknown scent of the future struggling and challenging both human communication and relationships in the presence of digital culture. This research uses Diffusion of Innovation to study the wide and continuous spread of digital culture in human communication; and, Media Dependency in learning and structuring the cognitive, affective and behavioral effects of social media on each person uses the media in different ways. This research will be using online survey to gain opinions from a social network site as an update of views and reflection of self-awareness to all levels of people. Social media like Facebook (FB) is perceived as a good tool of communication that it is able to bring closeness among the family members. The results show that social media like FB brings positive impact towards family members; it would help to build a better and harmonic society; and, relationships among family members and communication shall be improved and enhanced to the level of a united society.

실증적 관점에서 본 삼대가족 아파트 개발의 타당성에 관한 연구 (The Validity of Developing a Three Generation Family Apartment as a Cultural Housing Model in Korea : The Empirical Basis)

  • 이연숙
    • 한국주거학회논문집
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.21-33
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    • 1992
  • The purpose of this research was to find empirical evidence to support the varidity of developing a three generation family apartment as a cultural housing model In Korea. This was done through interviews, a questionnaire mailing survey and the delphi method.Major findings were as follows;There was a string preference for the elderly to live together with their married children, whereas their married children preferred to live independently, being separated from their old parents.Housewives of the younger generation recognized many advantages or good points of the three generation living together. They, however pointed out many disadvantages as well. Most of the good points were related to psychological comfortableness steming from living close each other, while most of the bad points to behavioral constraints steming from living together in one residential unit. This suggested that a new type of heusing, which provides privacy for each generation as well as the feeling of closeness between the two generations, needs to be developed to disseminate positive aspects of the three generation family cuture.There is a concensus among professionals that the three generation family apartment is a promising cultural housing model in korea, especially for the elderly in Korea.

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농업인 건강안전정보센터의 활용 효과에 관한 연구 (Research on the Effect of Korea Information Center of Agricultural Safety and Health (KICASH))

  • 이경숙;김효철;채혜선;조용호;민경두
    • 한국지역사회생활과학회지
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.441-446
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of application of the contents of Korean Information Center of Agricultura Safety and Health (KICASH) with 80 subjects(male: 60, female: 20) from different provinces nationwide in 2011. Subjects were classified according to their sex and familiarity of computer and then categorized into 3 groups with poor, medium and good by self-evaluation. The test for the effectiveness and satisfaction about KICASH was conducted with likert scale from very bad (1point) to very good (5point). Subjects generally tended to give 4 points to contents. And they gave support to KICASH in that they showed about 4 point with intention of application of KICASH for safety and health irrespective of familiarity of computer. However, as they received the information passively, it will be needed to develop more interesting and various contents which they could get more helpful information for their health and safety actively using two-way information communication system in future. Therefore the study can helps improve farmer's health and safety through developing advanced health and safety information system.

한약재 품질관리의 개선방향

  • 박진한
    • 대한한약학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한한약학회 2007년도 Autumn Conference
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    • pp.129-144
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    • 2007
  • In order for stable demand-supply and regularity of distribution, "The regulations for management of demand-supply and distribution of medicinal herbs" were established on 1995. Therefore, the medicinal herbs of good quality have been controled to be distributed in the market. However, to be wide of the purpose, the standardized sound distribution system was caused due to the governmental control on demand-supply to protect domestic farmers who produce the material for medicinal herbs, which results in the over distribution of non-standardized or illegally imported medicinal herbs. In addition, because of the distribution of faulty or poor medicinal herbs, there are chances of affecting bad effects on public health. The standardized medicinal herbs cover 514 different kinds in total, of which 69 products are specified to be standardized in the oriental medicine product companies. Also, in order to protect farmers who produce the materials for medicinal herbs, the amount of imported materials are regulated in normal times. The 14 different materials for medicinal herbs, which are allowed to be imported to a certain amount only when the shortage of goods or sudden rise of prices is to happen, are frequently introduced into domestic market as food not as medical usage, and the origin of those illegally changes to home cropped one for the distribution in the market. In addition, the system of distribution are to be disordered and the condition for the distribution of medicinal herbs of good quality can not be made since they illegally changes the usage of the materials for medicinal herbs from their original one and can not be regulated by the domestic laws.

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IL-18 gene expression pattern in exogenously treated AML cells

  • Seo, Min-Ji;Park, Min-Ha;Yook, Yeon-Joo;Kwon, Young-Sook;Suh, Young-Ju;Kim, Min-Jung;Cho, Dae-Ho;Park, Jong-Hoon
    • BMB Reports
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    • 제41권6호
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    • pp.461-465
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    • 2008
  • IL-18 production may enhance immune system defense against KG-1 cells ; NB4 cells, which are associated with good prognosis, do not produce IL-18. In this study, we treated KG-1 cells with IL-18 and used microarray technology to assess subsequent effects on gene expression. In UniGene-array of 7488 human genes, expression of 57 genes, including stress related genes, increased at least 2-fold, whereas expression of 48 genes decreased at least 2-fold. Following exogenous exposure of KG-1 cells to IL-18, expression of CRYGC, $NF{\kappa}BIA$ and NACA gene were monitored. The latter is a transcriptional coactivator potentiating c-Jun-mediated transcription.$NF{\kappa}BIA$ is an inhibitor of $NF{\kappa}B$, and affects growth regulation, apoptosis and hypoxic stress. Studies, such as this one, are beginning to clarify the differences between cells associated with good and bad cancer prognoses, which may ultimately assist in medical treatment for acute myeloid leukemia.

Characteristics of Insulation Diagnosis and Failure in Gas Turbine Generator Stator Windings

  • Kim, Hee-Dong
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.280-285
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    • 2014
  • In order to evaluate the insulation deterioration in the stator windings of five gas turbine generators(137 MVA, 13.8 kV) which has been operated for more than 13 years, diagnostic test and AC dielectric breakdown test were performed at phases A, B and C. These tests included measurements of AC current, dissipation factor, partial discharge (PD) magnitude and capacitance. ${\Delta}I$ and ${\Delta}tan{\delta}$ in all three phases (A, B and C) of No. 1 generator stator windings showed that they were in good condition but PD magnitude indicated marginally serviceable and bad level to the insulation condition. Overall analysis of the results suggested that the generator stator windings were indicated serious insulation deterioration and patterns of the PD in all three phases were analyzed to be internal, slot and spark discharges. After the diagnostic test, an AC overvoltage test was performed by gradually increasing the voltage applied to the generator stator windings until electrical insulation failure occurred, in order to determine the breakdown voltage. The breakdown voltage at phases A, B and C of No. 1 generator stator windings failed at 28.0 kV, 17.9 kV, and 21.3 kV, respectively. The breakdown voltage was lower than that expected for good-quality windings (28.6 kV) in a 13.8kV class generator. In the AC dielectric breakdown and diagnostic tests, there was a strong correlation between the breakdown voltage and the voltage at which charging current increases abruptly ($P_{i1}$, $P_{i2}$).

울금의 염색성과 항균성에 관한 연구 I (A Study on the Dyeability and Antimicrobial Activity of Turmeric I)

  • 이연순
    • 한국의상디자인학회지
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2006
  • Turmeric is aromatic, perennial herb, up to 1m high and distributed in East Asia. Parts used of it Rhizomes and is known to be used a medicinal stuff yellow dye stuff from past to nowadays in the Oriental region. The objectives of this study were to investigate and to compare to the dyeability of Turmeric according to pH, temperature, mordants, and the antimicrobial properties of wool dyed with turmeric. The results of this study are as follows: The wavelengths of the strongest absorption of Turmeric extract were 420 nm respectively. The extracted dye from Turmeric has affinity to wool. The dyeing rates are decreased according to diluting times and the dyeing rates are increased according to high temperature. The color of pH 3-7 is yellow green, over pH 9 is turned to orange yellow. The color of the non-mordant sample is yellow but it changed to bright yellow by Al, to orange yellow by Cu mordant, and to brown yellow by Fe mordant. The launder fastness and is not good, 2-4 grade and the light fastness is bad, 2-3 grade, but the dry-cleaning fastness is generally good, 4-5 grade. The fabrics dyed with Turmeric extract showed high antibacterial property on Staphylococcus aureus.

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공업용 본봉 제봉기의 기구해석 및 봉황성능평가에 관한 연구 (A Study on Kinematic Analysis and Stitch Performance Evaluation of Industrial Lock Stitch Sewing Machine)

  • 전경진;신대영;홍창섭
    • 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정밀공학회 1994년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.288-297
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    • 1994
  • The sewing machine is one of the oldest machine that has ever used, which is related with clothes' life. Modern sewing machines are divided into three groups by the sititch character, which are the lock stitch sewing machine group, the over lock sewing machine group and the specical sewing machine group. The lock stitch sewing machine have being used more than any others, which is also good model to study. This work is part of the improvement of an industrial lock stitch(ILS) sewing machine's design. The research objectives are the kinematic analysis and evaluations of stitch performance. The feed dog and the needle extreme's motion, which are important two part's motion in the sewing machine, are characterized by the stitch process and the needle trace. The needle trace is formulated as the stitch spacing, the stitch spacing's ratio(the static characteristic), and the stitch's phase difference(the dynamic characteristic). The tested ILS sewing machine is evaluated as a good static characteristic and a bad dynamic characteristic. Namely, a stitch spacing's ratio is 0.01~0.063(mm/mm) and a stitch's phase difference ratio is 0.06~0.13(mm/mm).

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The Relationships between Benthic Macroinvertebrate and Environmental Factors in Iancheon and Bukcheon Streams, Korea

  • Bae, Mi-Jung;Park, Seon-Min;Kim, Ja-Kyung;Hong, Jeong-Gi;Ryu, Shi Hyun
    • 생태와환경
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    • 제53권1호
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    • pp.22-30
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    • 2020
  • In this study, we investigated the relationships between benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages and various environmental factors in Iancheon (NIA) and Bukcheon (NBC) streams, Korea. We collected benthic macroinvertebrates and 33 environmental factors in April 2017 at 9 sites (5 sites in NIA and 4 sites in NBC). We identified 93 species(5 phyla, 9 classes, 16 orders, and 53 families) and 69 species(5 phyla, 9 classes, 17 orders, and 47 families) in NIA and NBC streams, respectively. Considering benthic macroinvertebrate index (BMI), NIA (88.2) and NBC (80.2) streams were in "very good" status. Upstream areas showed the highest scores, 95.5 (NIA1) and 94.2 (NBC1), whereas BMI score was the lowest in downstream areas of both streams, especially in NBC4 (51.0 "bad" status). Cluster analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis represented the differences of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages according to spatial and anthropogenic gradients. Our findings provide reference data and highlight the need for the continued monitoring to maintain the good status and manage macroinvertebrate diversity in these two streams, in Sangju-si, Korea.