• Title/Summary/Keyword: Gompertz 모델식

Search Result 19, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

A Gompertz Model for Software Cost Estimation (Gompertz 소프트웨어 비용 추정 모델)

  • Lee, Sang-Un
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
    • /
    • v.15D no.2
    • /
    • pp.207-212
    • /
    • 2008
  • This paper evaluates software cost estimation models, and presents the most suitable model. First, we transformed a relevant model into variables to make in linear. Second, we evaluated model's performance considering how much suitable the cost data of the actual development software was. In the stage of model performance evaluation criteria, we used MMRE which is the relative error concept rather than the absolute error. Existing software cost estimation model follows Weibull, Gamma, and Rayleigh function. In this paper, Gompertz function model is suggested which is a kind of growth curve. Additionally, we verify the compatability of other different growth curves. As a result of evaluation of model's performance, Gompertz function was considered to be the most suitable for the cost estimation model.

Developments of Greenhouse Gas Generation Models and Estimation Method of Their Parameters for Solid Waste Landfills (폐기물매립지에서의 온실가스 발생량 예측 모델 및 변수 산정방법 개발)

  • Park, Jin-Kyu;Kang, Jeong-Hee;Ban, Jong-Ki;Lee, Nam-Hoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.32 no.6B
    • /
    • pp.399-406
    • /
    • 2012
  • The objective of this research is to develop greenhouse gas generation models and estimation method of their parameters for solid waste landfills. Two models obtained by differentiating the Modified Gompertz and Logistic models were employed to evaluate two parameters of a first-order decay model, methane generation potential ($L_0$) and methane generation rate constant (k). The parameters were determined by the statistical comparison of predicted gas generation rate data using the two models and actual landfill gas collection data. The values of r-square obtained from regression analysis between two data showed that one model by differentiating the Modified Gompetz was 0.92 and the other model by differentiating the Logistic was 0.94. From this result, the estimation methods showed that $L_0$ and k values can be determined by regression analysis if landfill gas collection data are available. Also, new models based on two models obtained by differentiating the Modified Gompertz and Logistic models were developed to predict greenhouse gas generation from solid waste landfills that actual landfill generation data could not be available. They showed better prediction than LandGEM model. Frequency distribution of the ratio of Qcs (LFG collection system) to Q (prediction value) was used to evaluate the accuracy of the models. The new models showed higher accuracy than LandGEM model. Thus, it is concluded that the models developed in this research are suitable for the prediction of greenhouse gas generation from solid waste landfills.

A Proposal for Predicting the Compressive Strength of Ultra-high Performance Concrete Using Equivalent Age (등가재령을 활용한 초고성능 콘크리트의 압축강도 예측식 제안)

  • Baek, Sung-Jin;Park. Jae-Woong;Han Jun-Hui;Kim, Jong;Han, Min-Cheol
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
    • /
    • 2023.11a
    • /
    • pp.149-150
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study proposes the most suitable strength prediction model equation for UHPC by calculating the apparent activation energy of UHPC according to the curing temperature and deriving the integrated temperature and compressive strength prediction equation. The results are summarized as follows. The apparent activation energy was calculated using the Arrhenius function, which was calculated as 21.09 KJ/mol. A model equation suitable for UHPC was calculated, and when the Flowman model equation was used, it was confirmed that it was suitable for the properties of UHPC using a condensation promoting super plasticizing agent.

  • PDF

Predictive Growth Model of Native Isolated Listeria monocytogenes on raw pork as a Function of Temperature and Time (온도와 시간을 주요 변수로 한 냉장 돈육에서의 native isolated Listeria monocytogenes에 대한 성장예측모델)

  • Hong, Chong-Hae;Sim, Woo-Chang;Chun, Seok-Jo;Kim, Young-Su;Oh, Deog-Hwan;Ha, Sang-Do;Choi, Weon-Sang;Bahk, Gyung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.37 no.5
    • /
    • pp.850-855
    • /
    • 2005
  • Model was developed to predict the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in raw pork. Experiment condition for model development was full 5-by-7 factorial arrangements of temperature (0, 5, 10, 15, and $20^{\circ}C$) and time (0, 1, 2, 3, 18, 48, and 120 hr). Gompertz values A, C, B, and M, and growth kinetics, exponential growth rate (EGR), generation time (GT), lag phase duration (LPD), and maximum population density (MPD) were calculated based on growth increased data. GT and LPD values gradually decreased, whereas EGR value gradually increased with increasing temperature. Response surface analysis (RSA) was carried out using Gompertz B and M values, to formulate equation with temperature being main control factor. This equation was applied to Gompertz equation. Experimental and predictive values for GT, LPD, and EGR, compared using the model, showed no significant differences (p<0.01). Proposed model could be used to predict growth of microorganisms for exposure assessment of MRA, thereby allowing more informed decision-making on potential regulatory actions of microorganisms in raw pork.

Development of a Predictive Model Describing the Growth of Listeria Monocytogenes in Fresh Cut Vegetable (샐러드용 신선 채소에서의 Listerio monocytogenes 성장예측모델 개발)

  • Cho, Joon-Il;Lee, Soon-Ho;Lim, Ji-Su;Kwak, Hyo-Sun;Hwang, In-Gyun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.25-30
    • /
    • 2011
  • In this study, predictive mathematical models were developed to predict the kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes growth in the mixed fresh-cut vegetables, which is the most popular ready-to-eat food in the world, as a function of temperature (4, 10, 20 and $30^{\circ}C$). At the specified storage temperatures, the primary growth curve fit well ($r^2$=0.916~0.981) with a Gompertz and Baranyi equation to determine the specific growth rate (SGR). The Polynomial model for natural logarithm transformation of the SGR as a function of temperature was obtained by nonlinear regression (Prism, version 4.0, GraphPad Software). As the storage temperature decreased from $30^{\circ}C$ to $4^{\circ}C$, the SGR decreased, respectively. Polynomial model was identified as appropriate secondary model for SGR on the basis of most statistical indices such as mean square error (MSE=0.002718 by Gompertz, 0.055186 by Baranyi), bias factor (Bf=1.050084 by Gompertz, 1.931472 by Baranyi) and accuracy factor (Af=1.160767 by Gompertz, 2.137181 by Baranyi). Results indicate L. monocytogenes growth was affected by temperature mainly, and equation was developed by Gompertz model (-0.1606+$0.0574^*Temp$+$0.0009^*Temp^*Temp$) was more effective than equation was developed by Baranyi model (0.3502-$0.0496^*Temp$+$0.0022^*Temp^*Temp$) for specific growth rate prediction of L.monocytogenes in the mixed fresh-cut vegetables.

Developing a Predictive Model for the Shelf-life of Fish Cake (어묵의 유통기한 예측모델의 개발)

  • Kang, Ji Hoon;Song, Kyung Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
    • /
    • v.42 no.5
    • /
    • pp.832-836
    • /
    • 2013
  • To develop a predictive model for the shelf-life of fish cake, fish cake was stored at 30, 35, or $40^{\circ}C$ and populations of total aerobic bacteria were determined during storage. Gompertz model parameters were determined and their dependence on temperature formulated as a quadratic equation for applications toward shelf-life prediction. The predicted shelf-life values for fish cake used in this study were 6.9, 5.5, and 3.8 days at 0, 4, and $10^{\circ}C$, respectively. The shelf-life prediction equation was appropriate based on statistical analyses that reveal accuracy and bias factors. These results suggest that our prediction model is applicable for estimating the shelf-life of fish cake.

Statistical Evaluation of Sigmoidal and First-Order Kinetic Equations for Simulating Methane Production from Solid Wastes (폐기물로부터 메탄발생량 예측을 위한 Sigmoidal 식과 1차 반응식의 통계학적 평가)

  • Lee, Nam-Hoon;Park, Jin-Kyu;Jeong, Sae-Rom;Kang, Jeong-Hee;Kim, Kyung
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
    • /
    • v.21 no.2
    • /
    • pp.88-96
    • /
    • 2013
  • The objective of this research was to evaluate the suitability of sigmoidal and firstorder kinetic equations for simulating the methane production from solid wastes. The sigmoidal kinetic equations used were modified Gompertz and Logistic equations. Statistical criteria used to evaluate equation performance were analysis of goodness-of-fit (Residual sum of squares, Root mean squared error and Akaike's Information Criterion). Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) was employed to compare goodness-of-fit of equations with same and different numbers of parameters. RSS and RMSE were decreased for first-order kinetic equation with lag-phase time, compared to the first-order kinetic equation without lag-phase time. However, first-order kinetic equations had relatively higher AIC than the sigmoidal kinetic equations. It seemed that the sigmoidal kinetic equations had better goodness-of-fit than the first-order kinetic equations in order to simulate the methane production.

Development of Site Index Curves and Comparison with National Scale for Cryptomeria japonica in Gyeongsang-do (경상도 지역 삼나무의 지위지수 곡선 개발 및 비교 검정)

  • Park, Hee-Jung;Choi, Suk-Won;Ko, Byung-Jun;Lee, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.110 no.4
    • /
    • pp.658-664
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study aimed to develop accurate status site index curves for C. japonica in Gyeongsang-do that reflect the regional characteristics. The development of high-growth models in Chapman-Richards, Schumacher, and Gompertz for 552 C. japonica growing in Gyeongsang-do. The Gompertz growth function is the most suitable for developing site index curves. The comparative test was analyzed using the F test at a significance level of 5% and the graph. As a result, compared with the national site index curves and site index curves under base age in Jeolla-do, the p-value was 0.05 or higher, and there was no statistically significant difference. The p-value was 0.05 or lower compared with site index curves over stand age in Jeolla-do, indicating a statistically significant difference. Therefore, it was determined that site index curves for C. japonica in Gyeongsang-do can be applied to the national site index curves and site index curves under base age in Jeolla-do, but not to site index curves over base age in Jeolla-do. Hence, based on the results of the study, it is possible to provide basic data on the forest management system for C. japonica in Gyeongsang-do and systematic and reasonable management through high field application reflecting regional characteristics.

Predicting and Extending the Shelf Life of Red Cabbage Sprouts (적양배추싹의 Shelf Life 예측 및 Aqueous ClO2, Fumaric Acid, UV-C 병합처리)

  • Chun, Ho Hyun;Park, Seung Jong;Jung, Seung Hun;Song, Kyung Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
    • /
    • v.42 no.9
    • /
    • pp.1518-1523
    • /
    • 2013
  • To estimate the shelf life of red cabbage sprouts (stored at 4 and $10^{\circ}C$), the numbers of total aerobic bacteria were determined during storage. Parameters for the Gompertz model were determined and the shelf life was predicted using a modified Gompertz equation. The estimated shelf lives of red cabbage sprouts packed with polyolefin film and polyamide/polyamide/polyethylene (PA/PA/PE) film at $4^{\circ}C$ were 49.4 and 52.3 h, respectively, whereas those of red cabbage sprouts packed with polyolefin film and PA/PA/PE film at $10^{\circ}C$ were 19.7 and 22.6, respectively. The shelf life prediction equation was appropriate, based on the statistical analysis of the accuracy factor, bias factor, and mean square error. On the other hand, for red cabbage sprouts treated with aqueous $ClO_2$/fumaric acid and UV-C then packed with polyolefin film or PA/PA/PE film, the shelf life was predicted to be longer than 168 h. These results suggest that the combined treatment of aqueous $ClO_2$/fumaric acid and UV-C can be useful for improving microbial safety and extending the shelf life of red cabbage sprouts during storage.

A Flexible Statistical Growth Model for Describing Plant Disease Progress (식물병(植物病) 진전(進展)의 한 유연적(柔軟的)인 통계적(統計的) 생장(生長) 모델)

  • Kim, Choong-Hoe
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
    • /
    • v.26 no.1 s.70
    • /
    • pp.31-36
    • /
    • 1987
  • A piecewise linear regression model able to describe disease progress curves with simplicity and flexibility was developed in this study. The model divides whole epidemic into several pieces of simple linear regression based on changes in pattern of disease progress in the epidemic and then incorporates the pieces of linear regression into a single mathematical function using indicator variables. When twelve epidemic data obtained from the field experiments were fitted to the piecewise linear regression model, logistic model and Gompertz model to compare statistical fit, goodness of fit was greatly improved with piecewise linear regression compared to other two models. Simplicity, flexibility, accuracy and ease in parameter estimation of the piece-wise linear regression model were described with examples of real epidemic data. The result in this study suggests that piecewise linear regression model is an useful technique for modeling plant disease epidemic.

  • PDF