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A Study on Forecasting Method for a Short-Term Demand Forecasting of Customer's Electric Demand (수요측 단기 전력소비패턴 예측을 위한 평균 및 시계열 분석방법 연구)

  • Ko, Jong-Min;Yang, Il-Kwon;Song, Jae-Ju
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.58 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2009
  • The traditional demand prediction was based on the technique wherein electric power corporations made monthly or seasonal estimation of electric power consumption for each area and subscription type for the next one or two years to consider both seasonally generated and local consumed amounts. Note, however, that techniques such as pricing, power generation plan, or sales strategy establishment were used by corporations without considering the production, comparison, and analysis techniques of the predicted consumption to enable efficient power consumption on the actual demand side. In this paper, to calculate the predicted value of electric power consumption on a short-term basis (15 minutes) according to the amount of electric power actually consumed for 15 minutes on the demand side, we performed comparison and analysis by applying a 15-minute interval prediction technique to the average and that to the time series analysis to show how they were made and what we obtained from the simulations.

Study for Possible Crack Propagation Mechanisms for a Surface Cracked in a Polyethylene Tibia Component Subject to Rolling and Sliding Contact (구름마찰접촉하중 시 Polyethylene tibia 요소의 표면균열 복합전파 거동에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, B.S.;Moon, B.Y.
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.1222-1227
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    • 2003
  • Pitting wear is a dominant form of polyethylene surface damage in total knee replacements, and may originate from surface cracks that propagate under repeated tribological contact. In this study, stress intensity factors, $K_{I}$ and $K_{II}$, were calculated for a surface crack in a polyethylene - CoCr - bone system under the rolling and/or sliding contact pressures. Crack length and load location were considered in determination of probable crack propagation mechanisms and fracture modes. Positive $K_{I}$ values were obtained for shorter cracks in rolling contact and for all crack lengths when the sliding load was apart from the crack. $K_{II}$, was the greatest when the load was directly adjacent to the crack $(g/a={\pm}1)$. Sliding friction caused a substantial increase of both $K_{I}^{max}$ and $K_{II}^{max}$. The effective Mode I stress intensity factors, $K_{eff}$, were the greatest at $g/a={\pm}1$, showing the significance of high shear stresses generated by loads adjacent to surface cracks. Such behavior of $K_{eff}$ suggests mechanisms for surface pitting by which surface cracks may propagate along their original plane under repeated rolling or sliding contact.

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Analysis and Control of a Modular MV-to-LV Rectifier based on a Cascaded Multilevel Converter

  • Iman-Eini, Hossein;Farhangi, Shahrokh;Khakbazan-Fard, Mahboubeh;Schanen, Jean-Luc
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.133-145
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    • 2009
  • In this paper a modular high performance MV-to-LV rectifier based on a cascaded H-bridge rectifier is presented. The proposed rectifier can directly connect to the medium voltage levels and provide a low-voltage and highly-stable DC interface with the consumer applications. The input stage eliminates the necessity for heavy and bulky step-down transformers. It corrects the input power factor and maintains the voltage balance among the individual DC buses. The second stage includes the high frequency parallel-output DC/DC converters which prepares the galvanic isolation, regulates the output voltage, and attenuates the low frequency voltage ripple ($2f_{line}$) generated by the first stage. The parallel-output converters can work in interleaving mode and the active load-current sharing technique is utilized to balance the load power among them. The detailed analysis for modeling and control of the proposed structure is presented. The validity and performance of the proposed topology is verified by simulation and experimental results.

The Influence of The Starting Permanent Magnet on Mo-Load Speed of The Salient Pole Rotor Type Single Phase SRM (영구자석 기동장치가 회전자 돌극형 단상 SRM의 무부하 속도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Jun-Ho;Lee, Eun-Woong;Cho, Hyun-Kil;Lee, Seong-Min;Lee, Hwa-Soo
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2002.11d
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    • pp.73-75
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    • 2002
  • Single phase SRM(switched reluctance motor) is very simple in structure and in driving circuit than three phase SRM. But it can't be started by itself. The prototype of salient pole rotor type single phase SRM was fabricated in former research and the starting device was installed in bottom of the rotor for generating start torque. The starting device is composed of permanent magnet and it is placed the rotor at specific position which is generated positive torque when the prototype is started. Therefore the prototype was started by itself but it is also affected the torque and the speed in operation. On this paper, the influence of the starting device on no-load speed of the prototype was confirmed by measurement of no-load speed according to installation of the starting device or not.

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Influence of non-Gaussian characteristics of wind load on fatigue damage of wind turbine

  • Zhu, Ying;Shuang, Miao
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.217-227
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    • 2020
  • Based on translation models, both Gaussian and non-Gaussian wind fields are generated using spectral representation method for investigating the influence of non-Gaussian characteristics and directivity effect of wind load on fatigue damage of wind turbine. Using the blade aerodynamic model and multi-body dynamics, dynamic responses are calculated. Using linear damage accumulation theory and linear crack propagation theory, crack initiation life and crack propagation life are discussed with consideration of the joint probability density distribution of the wind direction and mean wind speed in detail. The result shows that non-Gaussian characteristics of wind load have less influence on fatigue life of wind turbine in the area with smaller annual mean wind speeds. Whereas, the influence becomes significant with the increase of the annual mean wind speed. When the annual mean wind speeds are 7 m/s and 9 m/s at hub height of 90 m, the crack initiation lives under softening non-Gaussian wind decrease by 10% compared with Gaussian wind fields or at higher hub height. The study indicates that the consideration of the influence of softening non-Gaussian characteristics of wind inflows can significantly decrease the fatigue life, and, if neglected, it can result in non-conservative fatigue life estimates for the areas with higher annual mean wind speeds.

The Properties of Waveform and Plug Formed by Poor Contact of Power Cord Sets (전원코드의 접촉 불량에 의해 형성된 파형 및 플러그의 특성)

  • Choi Chung-Seog;Kim Hyang-Kon;Kim Dong-Ook;Kim Young-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.20 no.1 s.69
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, we analyzed ignition characteristics of combustible material and the waveform of power dissipation, voltage and current by poor contact. And the surface structure of plug by poor contact was analyzed. In the results of experiment, the heat generated by poor contact and ignited the combustible material on power cord sets. The insulation material was molten and carbonized by the heat conduction though plug pit and voids were formed inside of insulation material. The waveform of voltage and power dissipation distorted because of a growth of oxidation by poor contact. In particular, in case that load was big load, the waveform of voltage and power dissipation severely distorted as with the passage of time. The surface of plug pin was changed from erosion mark to welding mark according to big load. The results will be applied to the cause analysis of electrical disaster.

Strain monitoring of the rail during train loading condition using optical fiber sensor (광섬유센서를 이용한 열차하중 작용시 레일의 변형을 모니터링)

  • Yoon, Hyuk-Jin;Song, Kwang-Yong;Kim, Dae-Sang;Kim, Ki-Hwan;Kim, Jung-Seok;Kwon, Tae-Soo;Na, Hee-Seung
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1514-1518
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    • 2009
  • Recently, railroad construction has been increased all over the world and as the train is getting high-speeded, there has been a need for guaranteed safety, so that a requirement for heath monitoring techniques for destruction that generated by gradually accumulated damages is now increasing. Especially the rail is crucial part that contact with wheel directly and delivers the train's load to a sleeper. It needs a technique that can guarantee a safety by sensing the possible cracks. In this paper, when train's load applied to the rail, strain distribution that introduced to entire length of rail is monitored using optical fibre. Optical fibre is used as a medium for measuring the strain and BOCDA (Brillouin Optical Correlation Domain Analysis) system is organized for measuring the distributed variation that implied to optical fibre. Optical fibre is attached at lower flange where tension is maximized when the load of train applied to the rail and strain gauge is implied together to compare the accuracy of measurement.

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Optimal Design of Automotive Seat Back Frame Using Finite Element Analysis (유한요소해석을 이용한 차량용 시트 백 프레임의 최적설계)

  • Shin, Hyeonho;Kang, Hee Yong;Yang, Sung Mo
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.57-62
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    • 2019
  • The seat back frame of the vehicle is subjected to load on the passenger behavior. Because of steel material, it is necessary to optimize the frame considering lightweight and safety. In this paper, finite element analysis is used for the optimal design of the seat back frame. First, a lightweight material is applied to reduce the weight of the seat back frame. Secondly, the design position of the pipe part fastened in the seat back frame was selected by considering the strength against the load generated by the occupant. Third, the shape of the side frame was derived by performing the phase optimization analysis for the AFT load condition. And we have compared the initial model with the optimal model to verify the light weighting and safety. As a result, the optimal design model of the seat back frame satisfying the weight reduction and safety has been proposed.

Dynamic Behavior Characteristics According to Arch Types of Arched Stone Bridge Subjected to Seismic Load (지진 하중을 받는 홍예교의 아치 형태에 따른 동적 거동 특성)

  • Kim, Ho-Soo;Lee, Seung-Hee;Jeon, Gun-Woo;Bang, Hyeok-Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2018
  • The arched stone bridge has been continuously deteriorated and damaged by the weathering and corrosion over time, and also natural disaster such as earthquake has added the damage. However, masonry stone bridge has the behavior characteristics as discontinuum structure and is very vulnerable to lateral load such as earthquake. So, it is necessary to analyze the dynamic behavior characteristics according to various design variables of arched stone bridge under seismic loads. To this end, the arched stone bridge can be classified according to arch types, and then the discrete element method is applied for the structural modelling and analysis. In addition, seismic loads according to return periods are generated and the dynamic analysis considering the discontinuity characteristics is carried out. Finally, the dynamic behavior characteristics are evaluated through the structural safety estimation for slip condition.

Response prediction of laced steel-concrete composite beams using machine learning algorithms

  • Thirumalaiselvi, A.;Verma, Mohit;Anandavalli, N.;Rajasankar, J.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.66 no.3
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    • pp.399-409
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    • 2018
  • This paper demonstrates the potential application of machine learning algorithms for approximate prediction of the load and deflection capacities of the novel type of Laced Steel Concrete-Composite (LSCC) beams proposed by Anandavalli et al. (Engineering Structures 2012). Initially, global and local responses measured on LSCC beam specimen in an experiment are used to validate nonlinear FE model of the LSCC beams. The data for the machine learning algorithms is then generated using validated FE model for a range of values of the identified sensitive parameters. The performance of four well-known machine learning algorithms, viz., Support Vector Regression (SVR), Minimax Probability Machine Regression (MPMR), Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) and Multigene Genetic Programing (MGGP) for the approximate estimation of the load and deflection capacities are compared in terms of well-defined error indices. Through relative comparison of the estimated values, it is demonstrated that the algorithms explored in the present study provide a good alternative to expensive experimental testing and sophisticated numerical simulation of the response of LSCC beams. The load carrying and displacement capacity of the LSCC was predicted well by MGGP and MPMR, respectively.