• Title/Summary/Keyword: Generalized confidence interval

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A Study on the Application of Generalized Extreme Value Distribution to the Variation of Annual Maximum Surge Heights (연간 최대해일고 변동의 일반화 극치분포 적용 연구)

  • Kwon, Seok-Jae;Park, Jeong-Soo;Lee, Eun-Il
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.241-253
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    • 2009
  • This study performs the investigation of a long-term variation of annual maximum surge heights(AMSH) and main characteristics of high surge events, and the statistical evaluation of the AMSH using sea level data at Yeosu and Tongyeong tidal stations over more than 30 years. It is found that the long-term uptrends based on the linear regression in the AMSH are 34.5 cm/34 yr at Yeosu and 33.6 cm/31 yr at Tongyeong, which are relatively much higher than those at Sokcho and Mukho in the Eastern Coast. 71% and 68% of the AMSH occur during typhoon's event in Yeosu and Tongyeong tidal stations, respectively, and the highest surge records are mostly produced by the typhoon. The generalized extreme value distribution taking into account of the time variable is applied to detect time trend in annual maximum surge heights. In addition, Gumbel distribution is checked to find which one is best fitted to the data using likelihood ratio test. The return level and its 90% confidence interval are obtained for the statistical prediction of the future trend. The prevention of the growing storm surge damage by the intensified typhoon requires the steady analysis and prediction of the surge events associated with the climate change.

Short-term Effects of Ambient Air Pollution on Emergency Department Visits for Asthma: An Assessment of Effect Modification by Prior Allergic Disease History

  • Noh, Juhwan;Sohn, Jungwoo;Cho, Jaelim;Cho, Seong-Kyung;Choi, Yoon Jung;Kim, Changsoo;Shin, Dong Chun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.329-341
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: The goal of this study was to investigate the short-term effect of ambient air pollution on emergency department (ED) visits in Seoul for asthma according to patients' prior history of allergic diseases. Methods: Data on ED visits from 2005 to 2009 were obtained from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. To evaluate the risk of ED visits for asthma related to ambient air pollutants (carbon monoxide [CO], nitrogen dioxide [$NO_2$], ozone [$O_3$], sulfur dioxide [$SO_2$], and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <$10{\mu}m$ [$PM_{10}$]), a generalized additive model with a Poisson distribution was used; a single-lag model and a cumulative-effect model (average concentration over the previous 1-7 days) were also explored. The percent increase and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated for each interquartile range (IQR) increment in the concentration of each air pollutant. Subgroup analyses were done by age, gender, the presence of allergic disease, and season. Results: A total of 33 751 asthma attack cases were observed during the study period. The strongest association was a 9.6% increase (95% CI, 6.9% to 12.3%) in the risk of ED visits for asthma per IQR increase in $O_3$ concentration. IQR changes in $NO_2$ and $PM_{10}$ concentrations were also significantly associated with ED visits in the cumulative lag 7 model. Among patients with a prior history of allergic rhinitis or atopic dermatitis, the risk of ED visits for asthma per IQR increase in $PM_{10}$ concentration was higher (3.9%; 95% CI, 1.2% to 6.7%) than in patients with no such history. Conclusions: Ambient air pollutants were positively associated with ED visits for asthma, especially among subjects with a prior history of allergic rhinitis or atopic dermatitis.

Self-management levels of diet and metabolic risk factors according to disease duration in patients with type 2 diabetes

  • Cho, Sukyung;Kim, Minkyeong;Park, Kyong
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2018
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Metabolic risk factors should be managed effectively in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) to prevent or delay diabetic complications. This study aimed to compare the self-management levels of diet and metabolic risk factors in patients with T2DM, according to the duration of illness, and to examine the trends in self-management levels during the recent decades. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Data were collected from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (KNHANES, 1998-2014). In our analysis, 4,148 patients with T2DM, aged ${\geq}30years$, were categorized according to the duration of their illness (< 5 years, 5-9 years, and ${\geq}10years$). Demographic and lifestyle information was assessed through self-administered questionnaires, and biomarker levels (e.g., fasting glucose level, blood pressure, or lipid level) were obtained from a health examination. Dietary intake was assessed by a 24-recall, and adherence level to dietary guidelines (meal patterns and intake levels of calories, carbohydrates, vegetable/seaweed, sodium, and alcohol) were assessed. Multivariable generalized linear regression and unconditional logistic regression models were used to compare the prevalence rates of hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia, and hypertension according to the duration of patients' illness, accounting for the complex survey design of the KNHANES. RESULTS: In the multivariable adjusted models, patients with a longer duration (${\geq}10years$) of T2DM had a higher prevalence of hyperglycemia than those with a shorter duration of T2DM (< 5 years) (odds ratio 2.20, 95% confidence interval 1.61-3.01, P for trend < 0.001). We did not observe any associations of disease duration with the prevalence of hypertension and dyslipidemia. In addition, the adherence levels to dietary recommendations did not significantly differ according to disease duration, except adherence to moderate alcohol consumption. There were significant decreasing trends in the prevalence of hyperglycemia in patients with a duration of illness ${\geq}10years$ (P for trend = 0.004). CONCLUSION: Although the proportion of patients with adequate control of glucose levels has improved in recent decades, poorer self-management has been found in those with a longer disease duration. These findings suggest the need for well-planned and individualized patient education programs to improve self-management levels and quality of life by preventing or delaying diabetic complications.

Dietary Changes After Breast Cancer Diagnosis: Associations with Physical Activity, Anthropometry, and Health-related Quality of life Among Korean Breast Cancer Survivors (한국인 유방암 경험자의 유방암 진단 후 식사변화: 신체활동, 신체측정치, 그리고 건강관련 삶의 질과의 연관성)

  • Song, Sihan;Youn, Hyun Jo;Jung, So-Youn;Lee, Eunsook;Kim, Zisun;Cho, Jihyoung;Yoo, Young Bum;Moon, Hyeong-Gon;Noh, Dong-Young;Lee, Jung Eun
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.533-544
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: We aimed to examine levels of physical activity, anthropometric features, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among Korean breast cancer survivors who reported changes in their diet after diagnosis. Methods: A total of 380 women who had been diagnosed with stage I to III breast cancer and had breast cancer surgery at least six months before the interview were included. Participants provided information on dietary change after diagnosis, post-diagnostic diet, physical activity, anthropometric measures, and HRQoL through face-to-face interview. We assessed HRQoL levels of breast cancer survivors using a validated Korean version of European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30) and Breast Cancer Module (BR23). We used the logistic regression and generalized linear models to identify the associations of dietary changes in relation with physical activity, anthropometry, and HRQoL. Results: The majority of participants (72.6%) reported that they have changed their diet to a healthier diet after diagnosis. Breast cancer survivors who reported to have change to a healthy diet had higher intakes of vegetables and fruits and lower intakes of red and processed meats, and refined grains than those who did not. Also, survivors with a healthy change in their diet were more likely to engage in physical activity (top vs. bottom tertile: odds ratio [OR], 1.85; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02-3.36) and have lower body mass index (BMI) (OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.98 for one $kg/m^2$ increment in BMI) compared to those who did not. We found that a healthy change in diet was associated with higher scores of physical functioning (p=0.02) and lower scores of constipation (p=0.04) and diarrhea (p=0.006) compared to those who did not. Conclusions: Healthy changes in diet after breast cancer diagnosis may be associated with lower levels of BMI, and higher levels of physical activity and HRQoL.

Impact of Changes in Medical Aid Status on Health Care Utilization

  • Kim, Woorim;Nam, Chung Mo;Lee, Sang Gyu;Park, Sohee;Kim, Tae Hyun;Park, Eun-Cheol
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.513-522
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    • 2019
  • Background: South Korea operates a Medical Aid (MA) program targeting selected low-income individuals to ensure medical service delivery to the disadvantaged while enhancing self-sufficiency of work-capable beneficiaries. However, as reasons behind welfare exits are diverse and do not always infer poverty relief or the provision of appropriate levels of health care services, this study aimed to investigate the association between changes in MA status and health care utilization. Methods: This study used the 2006 to 2015 National Health Insurance claims data. The impact of changes in annual MA status on health care utilization (yearly number of outpatient visits, inpatient visits, length of stay, and emergency department [ED] visits) was investigated using the generalized estimating equation model. Results: In 117,943 adult subjects aged 20 to 64, compared to the 'MA to MA' group, the 'MA to MA exit' group showed general decreases in utilization (outpatient visits: β=-3.93, p<0.0001; hospital admissions: relative risk [RR], 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-0.91; length of stay: β=-3.64, p<0.0001; ED visits: RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.77-0.90). Similar patterns were found in the 'MA exit to MA exit' group (outpatient visits: β=-5.72, p<0.0001; admissions: RR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.94; length of stay: β=-5.87; p<0.0001; ED visits: RR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.75-0.88). Likewise, in 74,747 older adult subjects aged 65 or above, the 'MA to MA exit' group showed reduced levels of utilization (outpatient visits: β=-1.51; p=0.0020), as well as the 'MA exit to MA exit' group (admissions: RR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.89-0.95; length of stay: β, -5.45; p<0.0001; ED visits: RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83-0.97). Conclusion: MA exit was associated with general decreases in health care utilization. Utilization patterns of individuals with experiences of receiving MA benefits should be monitored to promote the ideal use of health care services while preventing potential financial barriers present in accessing medical care.

Comparison between Gel Pad Cooling Device and Water Blanket during Target Temperature Management in Cardiac Arrest Patients

  • Jung, Yoon Sun;Kim, Kyung Su;Suh, Gil Joon;Cho, Jun-Hwi
    • Acute and Critical Care
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.246-251
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    • 2018
  • Background: Target temperature management (TTM) improves neurological outcomes for comatose survivors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. We compared the efficacy and safety of a gel pad cooling device (GP) and a water blanket (WB) during TTM. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis in a single hospital, wherein we measured the time to target temperature ($<34^{\circ}C$) after initiation of cooling to evaluate the effectiveness of the cooling method. The temperature farthest from $33^{\circ}C$ was selected every hour during maintenance. Generalized estimation equation analysis was used to compare the absolute temperature differences from $33^{\circ}C$ during the maintenance period. If the selected temperature was not between $32^{\circ}C$ and $34^{\circ}C$, the hour was considered a deviation from the target. We compared the deviation rates during hypothermia maintenance to evaluate the safety of the different methods. Results: A GP was used for 23 patients among of 53 patients, and a WB was used for the remaining. There was no difference in baseline temperature at the start of cooling between the two patient groups (GP, $35.7^{\circ}C$ vs. WB, $35.6^{\circ}C$; P=0.741). The time to target temperature (134.2 minutes vs. 233.4 minutes, P=0.056) was shorter in the GP patient group. Deviation from maintenance temperature (2.0% vs. 23.7%, P<0.001) occurred significantly more frequently in the WB group. The mean absolute temperature difference from $33^{\circ}C$ during the maintenance period was $0.19^{\circ}C$ (95% confidence interval [CI], $0.17^{\circ}C$ to $0.21^{\circ}C$) in the GP group and $0.76^{\circ}C$ (95% CI, $0.71^{\circ}C$ to $0.80^{\circ}C$) in the WB group. GP significantly decreased this difference by $0.59^{\circ}C$ (95% CI, $0.44^{\circ}C$ to $0.75^{\circ}C$; P<0.001). Conclusions: The GP was superior to the WB for strict temperature control during TTM.

Grip Strength as a Predictor of Cerebrovascular Disease (뇌혈관질환의 예측인자로서의 악력)

  • Jung, Seok-Hwan;Kim, Jae-Hyun
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.303-311
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    • 2019
  • Background: Cerebrovascular disease is included in four major diseases and is a disease that has high rates of prevalence and mortality around the world. Moreover, it is a disease that requires a high cost for long-term hospitalization and treatment. This study aims to figure out the correlation between grip strength, which was presented as a simple, cost-effective, and relevant predictor of cerebrovascular disease, and cerebrovascular disease based on the results of a prior study. And furthermore, our study compared model suitability of the model to measuring grip strength and relative grip strength as a predictor of cerebrovascular disease to improve the quality of cerebrovascular disease's predictor. Methods: This study conducted an analysis based on the generalized linear mixed model using the data from the Korea Longitudinal Study of Ageing from 2006 to 2016. The research subjects consisted of 9,132 middle old age people aged 45 years or older at baseline with no missing information of education level, gender, marital status, residential region, type of national health insurance, self-related health, smoking status, alcohol use, and economic activity. The grip strength was calculated the average which measured 4 times (both hands twice), and the relative grip force was divided by the body mass index as a variable considering the anthropometric figure that affects the cerebrovascular disease and the grip strength. Cerebrovascular diseases, a dependent variable, were investigated based on experiences diagnosed by doctors. Results: An analysis of the association between grip strength and found that about 0.972 (odds ratio [OR], 0.972; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.963-0.981) was the incidence of cerebral vascular disease as grip strength increased by one unit increase and the association between relative grip strength and cerebrovascular disease found that about 0.418 (OR, 0.418; 95% CI, 0.342-0.511) was the incidence of cerebral vascular disease as relative grip strength increased by unit. In addition, the model suitability of the model for each grip strength and relative grip strength was 11,193 and 11,156, which means relative grip strength is the better application to the predictor of cerebrovascular diseases, irrespective of other variables. Conclusion: The results of this study need to be carefully examined and validated in applying relative grip strength to improve the quality of predictors of cerebrovascular diseases affecting high mortality and prevalence.

Does the Obesity Paradox Exist in Cognitive Function?: Evidence from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing, 2006-2016 (인지기능에 비만 역설은 존재하는가?: 고령화연구패널자료(2006-2016)를 이용하여)

  • Kang, Kyung Sik;Lee, Yongjae;Park, Sohee;Kimm, Heejin;Chung, Woojin
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.493-504
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    • 2020
  • Background: There have been many studies on the associations between body mass index (BMI) and cognitive function. However, no study has ever compared the associations across the methods of categorizing BMI. In this study, we aimed to fill the gap in the previous studies and examine whether the obesity paradox is valid in the risk of cognitive function. Methods: Of the 10,254 people aged 45 and older from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing from 2006 to 2016, 8,970 people were finalized as the study population. The dependent variable was whether a person has a normal cognitive function or not, and the independent variables of interest were BMI categorized by the World Health Organization Western Pacific Regional Office (WHO-WPRO) method, the WHO method, and a 10-group method. Covariates included sociodemographic factors, health behavior factors, and health status factors. A generalized linear mixed model analysis with a logit link was used. Results: In the adjusted model with all covariates, first, in the case of BMI categories of the WHO-WPRO method, underweight (odds ratio [OR], 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-1.17), overweight (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.35-1.36), and obese (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.33-1.34) groups were more likely to have a normal cognitive function than a normal-weight group. Next, in the case of BMI categories of the WHO method, compared to a normal-weight group, underweight (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.14-1.16) and overweight (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.06-1.07) groups were more likely to have a normal cognitive function; however, obese (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.61-0.63) group was less likely to have it. Lastly, in the case of the 10-group method, as BMI increased, the likelihood to have a normal cognitive function changed like a wave, reaching a global top at group-7 (26.5 kg/㎡ ≤ BMI <28.0 kg/㎡). Conclusion: The associations between BMI and cognitive function differed according to how BMI was categorized among people aged 45 and older in Korea, which suggests that cognitive function may be positively associated with BMI in some categories of BMI but negatively in its other categories. Health policies to reduce cognitive impairment need to consider this association between BMI and cognitive function.

Factors Associated with the Use of Medical Care at Hospitals among Outpatients with Hypertension: A Study of the Korea Health Panel Study Dataset (2010-2016) (우리나라 고혈압 환자의 병원급 의료기관 외래이용 관련 요인: 한국의료패널자료(2010-2016)를 이용하여)

  • Lee, Sumi;Park, Sohee;Kimm, Heejin;Lee, Yongjae;Chung, Woojin
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.479-492
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    • 2020
  • Background: As the prevalence of hypertension is increasing in Korea, the government is seeking policy actions to manage patients with hypertension more efficiently. In this paper, we aimed to identify factors associated with the use of medical care at hospitals among outpatients with hypertension. Methods: We analyzed a total of 15,040 cases of 3,877 outpatients with hypertension obtained from the Korea Medical Panel database from 2010 to 2016. The dependent variable was whether a patient with hypertension visited a hospital or not; and independent variables were the patient's various socio-demographic, health-related, and heath-status characteristics. We conducted a generalized linear mixed model analysis with logit link for all the cases and then conducted it stratified by gender. Results: As a result of a multivariable analysis, women were less likely than to visit at a hospital (odds ratio [OR], 0.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.32-0.61) and people aged 65 years and older than those aged less than 65 years (OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89). Residents in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam were more likely than those in than Seoul, Gyeonggi, Incheon, and Jeju to visit a hospital (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.05-1.86). The likelihood of visiting a hospital was high in people belonging to a group of: the highest level of annual household income (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.30-2.29); Medical care aid recipients (OR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.34-2.83); people having three or more complex chronic diseases (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.19-2.11); people having diabetes (OR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.41-2.32); or people having ischemic heart disease or cerebrovascular disease (OR, 6.80; 95% CI, 5.28-8.76). Also, we found that factors associated with the use of medical care at hospitals among outpatients with hypertension differed between genders. Conclusion: A variety of factors seem to be associated with the use of medical care at hospitals among outpatients with hypertension. Future research needs to find a way to help patients with hypertension visit an appropriate medical institution between clinics and hospitals.

Characteristics of Patients with Surgical Closure of an Atrial Septal Defect during Infancy

  • Byeong A Yoo;Su Jin Kwon;Yu-Mi Im;Dong-Hee Kim;Eun Seok Choi;Bo Sang Kwon;Chun Soo Park;Tae-Jin Yun
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.155-161
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    • 2023
  • Background: Surgical closure of an atrial septal defect (ASD) is infrequently indicated during infancy. We evaluated the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients who underwent surgical ASD closure during infancy. Methods: A single-center retrospective review was performed for 39 patients (19 males) who underwent surgical ASD closure during infancy between 1993 and 2020. The median body weight percentile at the time of operation was 9.3. Results: During a median follow-up of 60.9 months, 4 late deaths occurred due to chronic respiratory failure. A preoperative history of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) was the only risk factor for late mortality identified in Cox regression (hazard ratio, 3.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75-163.04; p=0.015). The 5-year survival rate was significantly lower in patients with preoperative history of BPD (97.0% vs. 50.0%, p<0.001) and preoperative ventilatory support (97.1% vs. 40.4%, p<0.001). There were significant postoperative increases in left ventricular end-diastolic (p=0.017), end-systolic (p=0.014), and stroke volume (p=0.013) indices. A generalized estimated equation model showed significantly better postoperative improvement in body weight percentiles in patients with lower weight percentiles at the time of operation (<10th percentile, p=0.01) and larger indexed ASD diameter (≥45 mm/m2, p=0.025). Conclusion: Patients with ASD necessitating surgical closure during infancy are extremely small preoperatively and remain small even after surgical closure. However, postoperative somatic growth was more prominent in smaller patients with larger defects, which may be attributable to an increase in postoperative cardiac output due to changes in ventricular septal configuration. The benefits of ASD closure in patients with BPD are undetermined.