• 제목/요약/키워드: Generalized additive mixed models

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Lifetime Risk Assessment of Lung Cancer Incidence for Nonsmokers in Japan Considering the Joint Effect of Radiation and Smoking Based on the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors

  • Shimada, Kazumasa;Kai, Michiaki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • 제46권3호
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2021
  • Background: The lifetime risk of lung cancer incidence due to radiation for nonsmokers is overestimated because of the use of the average cancer baseline risk among a mixed population, including smokers. In recent years, the generalized multiplicative (GM)-excess relative risk (ERR) model has been developed in the life span study of atomic bomb survivors to consider the joint effect of radiation and smoking. Based on this background, this paper discusses the issues of radiation risk assessment considering smoking in two parts. Materials and Methods: In Part 1, we proposed a simple method of estimating the baseline risk for nonsmokers using current smoking data. We performed sensitivity analysis on baseline risk estimation to discuss the birth cohort effects. In Part 2, we applied the GM-ERR model for Japanese smokers to calculate lifetime attributable risk (LAR). We also performed a sensitivity analysis using other ERR models (e.g., simple additive (SA)-ERR model). Results and Discussion: In Part 1, the lifetime baseline risk from mixed population including smokers to nonsmokers decreased by 54% (44%-60%) for males and 24% (18%-29%) for females. In Part 2, comparison of LAR between SA- and GM-ERR models showed that if the radiation dose was ≤200 mGy or less, the difference between these ERR models was within the standard deviation of LAR due to the uncertainty of smoking information. Conclusion: The use of mixed population for baseline risk assessment overestimates the risk for lung cancer due to low-dose radiation exposure in Japanese males.

Pitch trajectories of English vowels produced by American men, women, and children

  • Yang, Byunggon
    • 말소리와 음성과학
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2018
  • Pitch trajectories reflect a continuous variation of vocal fold movements over time. This study examined the pitch trajectories of English vowels produced by 139 American English speakers, statistically analyzing their trajectories using the Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). First, Praat was used to read the sound data of Hillenbrand et al. (1995). A pitch analysis script was then prepared, and six pitch values at the corresponding time points within each vowel segment were collected and checked. The results showed that the group of men produced the lowest pitch trajectories, followed by the groups of women, boys, then girls. The density line showed a bimodal distribution. The pitch values at the six corresponding time points formed a single dip, which changed gradually across the vowel segment from 204 to 193 to 196 Hz. The normality tests performed on the pitch data rejected the null hypothesis. Nonparametric tests were therefore conducted to discover the significant differences in the values among the four groups. The GAMMs, which analyzed all the pitch data, produced significant results among the pitch values at the six corresponding time points but not between the two groups of boys and girls. The GAMMs also revealed that the two groups were significantly different only at the first and second time points. Accordingly, the methodology of this study and its findings may be applicable to future studies comparing curvilinear data sets elicited by experimental conditions.

A comparison of normalized formant trajectories of English vowels produced by American men and women

  • Yang, Byunggon
    • 말소리와 음성과학
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2019
  • Formant trajectories reflect the continuous variation of speakers' articulatory movements over time. This study examined formant trajectories of English vowels produced by ninety-three American men and women; the values were normalized using the scale function in R and compared using generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs). Praat was used to read the sound data of Hillenbrand et al. (1995). A formant analysis script was prepared, and six formant values at the corresponding time points within each vowel segment were collected. The results indicate that women yielded proportionately higher formant values than men. The standard deviations of each group showed similar patterns at the first formant (F1) and the second formant (F2) axes and at the measurement points. R was used to scale the first two formant data sets of men and women separately. GAMMs of all the scaled formant data produced various patterns of deviation along the measurement points. Generally, more group difference exists in F1 than in F2. Also, women's trajectories appear more dynamic along the vertical and horizontal axes than those of men. The trajectories are related acoustically to F1 and F2 and anatomically to jaw opening and tongue position. We conclude that scaling and nonlinear testing are useful tools for pinpointing differences between speaker group's formant trajectories. This research could be useful as a foundation for future studies comparing curvilinear data sets.

Physical Activity- and Alcohol-dependent Association Between Air Pollution Exposure and Elevated Liver Enzyme Levels: An Elderly Panel Study

  • Kim, Kyoung-Nam;Lee, Hyemi;Kim, Jin Hee;Jung, Kweon;Lim, Youn-Hee;Hong, Yun-Chul
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제48권3호
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    • pp.151-169
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: The deleterious effects of air pollution on various health outcomes have been demonstrated. However, few studies have examined the effects of air pollution on liver enzyme levels. Methods: Blood samples were drawn up to three times between 2008 and 2010 from 545 elderly individuals who regularly visited a community welfare center in Seoul, Korea. Data regarding ambient air pollutants (particulate matter ${\leq}2.5{\mu}m$ [$PM_{2.5}$], nitrogen dioxide [$NO_2$], ozone [$O_3$], carbon monoxide, and sulfur dioxide) from monitoring stations were used to estimate air pollution exposure. The effects of the air pollutants on the concentrations of three liver enzymes (aspartate aminotransferase [AST], alanine aminotransferase [ALT], and ${\gamma}$-glutamyltranspeptidase [${\gamma}$-GTP)]) were evaluated using generalized additive and linear mixed models. Results: Interquartile range increases in the concentrations of the pollutants showed significant associations of $PM_{2.5}$ with AST (3.0% increase, p=0.0052), ALT (3.2% increase, p=0.0313), and ${\gamma}$-GTP (5.0% increase, p=0.0051) levels; $NO_2$ with AST (3.5% increase, p=0.0060) and ALT (3.8% increase, p=0.0179) levels; and $O_3$ with ${\gamma}$-GTP (5.3% increase, p=0.0324) levels. Significant modification of these effects by exercise and alcohol consumption was found (p for interaction <0.05). The effects of air pollutants were greater in non-exercisers and heavy drinkers. Conclusions: Short-term exposure to air pollutants such as $PM_{2.5}$, $NO_2$, and $O_3$ is associated with increased liver enzyme levels in the elderly. These adverse effects can be reduced by exercising regularly and abstinence from alcohol.

An Adaptive Local Management Approach Cannot Overcome Large-Scale Trends: A Long-Term Case-Study for Saxifraga hirculus Conservation

  • Marrs, Rob H.;O'Reilly, John;Rose, Rob J.;Lee, HyoHyeMi;Alday, Josu G.
    • Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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    • 제3권3호
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    • pp.139-148
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    • 2022
  • Saxifraga hirculus is classified as a vulnerable plant species in Europe, and it is confined to base-rich flushes in the British uplands. However, a lack of available information about its conservation status hampers the development of adaptive strategies for its in-situ conservation, especially with respect to grazing. To assess the effectiveness of sheep grazing in maintaining viable populations of S. hirculus, we compared the community dynamics of the vegetation in a base-rich flush over 44 years in two plots: one sheep-grazed under business-as-usual sheep grazing densities and the other fenced to exclude grazing. The plots were established in 1972, and the abundances of all vascular plants, bryophytes, and litter were measured at six intervals until 2016. Our results showed that although the presence of S. hirculus was maintained in both plots over the 44 years, it declined and reached a minimum between 1995 and 2010, when it was close to extinction. Since 2013, Saxifraga has recovered only slightly. Interestingly, the S. hirculus response appeared to be independent of grazing treatment, but it mirrored wider changes in the vegetation composition and structure within the flush over the 44 years. These changes are similar to others reported in broader uplands that have been attributed to a combination of reduced nitrogen and sulfur deposition and global warming. Thus, the simple adaptive management approach of "just managing" sheep grazing appeared ineffectual for preserving the S. hirculus population. S. hirculus showed signs of recovery at the end of the study period within this base-rich flush.

주요 대도시 알레르기 질환 유병률 변화와 대기오염과의 관련성 - 지역 용도를 고려한 19세 이하 주민 대상 - (Change in the Prevalence of Allergic Diseases and its Association with Air Pollution in Major Cities of Korea - Population under 19 Years Old in Different Land-use Areas -)

  • 이지호;오인보;김민호;방진희;박상진;윤석현;김양호
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제43권6호
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    • pp.478-490
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: The association of air pollution levels and land-use types with changes in the prevalence of allergic diseases (allergic conjunctivitis, allergic rhinitis, asthma, and atopic dermatitis) was investigated for seven metropolitan cities in Korea Methods: Data on daily hospital visits and admissions (of those under 19 years old) for 2003-2012 were obtained from the National Health Insurance Cooperation. Meteorological data on daily mean temperature, humidity, and air pressure were obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Daily mean or maximum concentration data for five pollutants ($PM_{10}$, $O_3$, $NO_2$, $SO_2$, and CO) as measured at air quality monitoring sites operated by the Ministry of Environment were used. We estimated excess risk and 95% confidence intervals for the increasing interquatile range (IQR) of each air pollutant using Generalized Additive Models (GAM) appropriate for time series analysis. Results: In this study, we observed a significant association between the IQR increases of air pollutants and the prevalence risk of allergic diseases (allergic conjunctivitis, allergic rhinitis, asthma, and atopic dermatitis) in all metropolitan cities after adjusting for temperature, humidity, and air pressure at sea level. Among the air pollutants, $NO_2$ and $PM_{10}$ were associated with the prevalence of asthma, and $O_3$ was associated with only allergic conjunctivitis in regression analysis. However, in GAM analysis considering land-use, $O_3$ and $SO_2$ were associated with allergic conjunctivitis, PM10, O3, NO2, and CO were associated with allergic rhinitis, and $PM_{10}$, $O_3$ and $NO_2$ were associated with asthma in industrial area. Conclusion: This study found a significant association between air pollution and the prevalence of allergic related diseases in industrial areas. More detailed research considering mixed traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) and conducting meta-analyses combining data of the all cities is required.