• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.463-477
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• 2009

Parameter estimation methods such as maximum likelihood estimation method, probability weighted moments method, regression method have been popularly applied to various extreme value models in numerous literature. Among three methods above, the performance of regression method has not been rigorously investigated yet. In this paper the regression method is compared with the other methods via Monte Carlo simulation studies for estimation of parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution and the Generalized Pareto(GP) distribution. Our simulation results indicate that the regression method tends to outperform other methods under small samples by providing smaller biases and root mean square errors for estimation of location parameter of the GEV model. For the scale parameter estimation of the GP model under small samples, the regression method tends to report smaller biases than the other methods. The regression method tends to be superior to other methods for the shape parameter estimation of the GEV model and GP model when the shape parameter is -0.4 under small and moderately large samples.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.947-958
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• 2014

Understanding extreme precipitation events is very important for flood planning purposes. Especially, the r-year return level is a common measure of extreme events. In this paper, we present a spatial analysis of precipitation return level using hierarchical Bayesian modeling. For intensity, we model annual maximum daily precipitations and daily precipitation above a high threshold at 62 stations in Korea with generalized extreme value(GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution(GPD), respectively. The spatial dependence among return levels is incorporated to the model through a latent Gaussian process of the GEV and GPD model parameters. We apply the proposed model to precipitation data collected at 62 stations in Korea from 1973 to 2011.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2001.05a
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• pp.140-145
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• 2001

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.799-803
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• 2003

We obtained the best linear unbiased estimator for the scale parameter of the generalized Pareto Distribution by the order statistics.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.931-939
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• 2011

In practice, thresholds are determined by the two subjective assessment methods in a generalized pareto distribution of mean extreme function(MEF-graph) or Hill-graph. To remedy the problem of subjectiveness of these methods, we propose an alternative method to determine the threshold based on the robust statistics. We compared the MEF-graph, Hill-graph and our method through VaRs on the Korean stock market data from January 5, 1987 to August 3, 2009. As a result, the VaR based on the proposed method is not much different from the existing methods, and the standard deviation of VaR for our method was the smallest. The results show that our method can be a promising alternative to determine thresholds of the generalized pareto distributions.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1069-1076
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• 2014

Rainfall weather patterns have changed due to global warming and sudden heavy rainfalls have become more frequent. Economic loss due to heavy rainfall has increased. We study the generalized Pareto distribution for modelling rainfall in Seoul based on data from 1973 to 2008. We use several priors including Jeffrey's noninformative prior and Gibbs sampling method to derive Bayesian posterior predictive distributions. The probability of heavy rainfall has increased over the last ten years based on estimated posterior predictive distribution.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.3
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• pp.173-185
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• 2019

The Korean Peninsula is considered as one of the most typhoon related disaster prone areas. In particular, the potential risk of flooding in coastal areas would be greater when storm surge and heavy rainfall occurred at the same time. In this context, understanding the mechanism of the interactions between them and estimating the risk associated with the concurrent occurrence are of particular interests especially in low-lying coastal areas. In this study, we developed a Poisson-Generalized Pareto (Poisson-GP) distribution based storm surge frequency analysis model to combine the occurrence of the exceedance of a threshold, that is the peaks over threshold (POT), within a Bayesian framework. The storm surge frequency analysis technique developed through this study might contribute to the improvement of disaster prevention technology related to storm surge in the coastal area.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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• v.11B no.7 s.96
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• pp.841-848
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• 2004

Evolutionary a1gorithms are well-suited for multi-objective optimization problems involving several, often conflicting objectives. Pareto-based evolutionary algorithms, in particular, have shown better performance than other multi-objective evolutionary algorithms in comparison. However, generalized evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithms have a weak point, in which the distribution of solutions are not uni-formly distributed onto Pareto optimal front. In this paper, we propose an evolutionary a1gorithm for multi-objective optimization which uses seed individuals in order to overcome weakness of algorithms Published. Seed individual means a solution which is not located in the crowded region on Pareto front. And the idea of our algorithm uses seed individuals for reproducing individuals for next generation. Thus, proposed a1go-rithm takes advantage of local searching effect because new individuals are produced near the seed individual with high probability, and is able to produce comparatively uniform distributed pareto optimal solutions. Simulation results on five testbed problems show that the proposed algo-rithm could produce uniform distributed solutions onto pareto optimal front, and is able to show better convergence compared to NSGA-II on all testbed problems except multi-modal problem.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.717-732
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• 2011

We consider bootstrap confidence intervals for high quantiles of heavy-tailed distribution. A semi-parametric method is compared with the non-parametric and the parametric method through simulation study.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.109-122
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• 2018

The composite lognormal-generalized Pareto distribution (LN-GPD) is a mixture of right-truncated lognormal and GPD for a given threshold value. Scollnik (Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2007, 20-33, 2007) shows that the composite LN-GPD is adequate to describe body distribution and heavy-tailedness. This paper considers time-varying modeling of the LN-GPD based on local polynomial maximum likelihood estimation. Time-varying model provides significant detailed information of time dependent data, hence it can be applied to disciplines such as service engineering for staffing and resources management. Our work also extends to Beirlant and Goegebeur (Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 89, 97-118, 2004) in the sense of losing no data by including truncated lognormal distribution. Our proposed method is shown to perform adequately in simulation. Real data application to the service time of the Israel bank call center shows interesting findings on the staffing policy.