• Title/Summary/Keyword: Generalized Least Squares Method

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Prediction of movie audience numbers using hybrid model combining GLS and Bass models (GLS와 Bass 모형을 결합한 하이브리드 모형을 이용한 영화 관객 수 예측)

  • Kim, Bokyung;Lim, Changwon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.447-461
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    • 2018
  • Domestic film industry sales are increasing every year. Theaters are the primary sales channels for movies and the number of audiences using the theater affects additional selling rights. Therefore, the number of audiences using the theater is an important factor directly linked to movie industry sales. In this paper we consider a hybrid model that combines a multiple linear regression model and the Bass model to predict the audience numbers for a specific day. By combining the two models, the predictive value of the regression analysis was corrected to that of the Bass model. In the analysis, three films with different release dates were used. All subset regression method is used to generate all possible combinations and 5-fold cross validation to estimate the model 5 times. In this case, the predicted value is obtained from the model with the smallest root mean square error and then combined with the predicted value of the Bass model to obtain the final predicted value. With the existence of past data, it was confirmed that the weight of the Bass model increases and the compensation is added to the predicted value.

An Analysis for the Structural Variation in the Unemployment Rate and the Test for the Turning Point (실업률 변동구조의 분석과 전환점 진단)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Hwang, Sung-Hye;Lee, Young-Hoon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.253-269
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    • 2005
  • One of the basic assumptions of the regression models is that the parameter vector does not vary across sample observations. If the parameter vector is not constant for all observations in the sample, the statistical model is changed and the usual least squares estimators do not yield unbiased, consistent and efficient estimates. This study investigates the regression model with some or all parameters vary across partitions of the whole sample data when the model permits different response coefficients during unusual time periods. Since the usual test for overall homogeneity of regressions across partitions of the sample data does not explicitly identify the break points between the partitions, the testing the equality between subsets of coefficients in two or more linear regressions is generalized and combined with the test procedure to search the break point. The method is applied to find the possibility and the turning point of the structural change in the long-run unemployment rate in the usual static framework by using the regression model. The relationships between the variables included in the model are reexamined in the dynamic framework by using Vector Autoregression.

Long Term Impact of Distribution Information Technology Investment on Firm Value (무선인식 유통정보기술 투자가 장기 주가수익률에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Sam-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.69-83
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - This paper investigates the long term impact of RFID investment on firm value in Korea. We wand to find out why the long term performance of some firm's RFID investment is better than others. To understand the dynamics of the long term returns from RFID investment announcements, we divide our events into groups for each of the independent firm characteristic variable such as investment time period, kind of markets, industries, solvency and growth potential. We composed portfolios based on the RFID investment announcement date for each group and evaluate the monthly abnormal excess returns. Research design, data, and methodology - Based on these calendar-time portfolios, we measure the long term returns from 86 RFID investment announcements of 46 firms from 2003 to 2017. We construct the calendar-time portfolio for 3, 6, 9, 12 months of holding periods. Using the weighted least squares method, we regress the raw monthly returns of the portfolios on the Fama-French model and Carhart(1997) model. As a result, we can get the estimated risk adjusted mean monthly abnormal excess return αP for each of the calendar-time portfolio. Results - We found that early adopters, large firms, non-manufacturing firms have very significant excess returns. We also found modestly significant excess returns for financially stable firms and slow growing firms. Put together, top managers of the firms which plan to invest RFID should understand the strategic role of RFID adoption and the generalized business process of distribution information technology investment in Korea. Moreover, the findings of this paper provide useful trading strategies to the managers of large funds who are considering on investing in RFID adopting firms. Conclusions - Put together, the results of this paper give us a new insight into how the RFID and IT technology in general and other characteristic factors' interactions affect the long term performance of firms. Using the unbiased estimates of long term returns of the calendar-time portfolios, this paper extends the understandings on short term impact of RFID adoption of existing studies. This paper also extends the current understandings of firm characteristics that affect the long term performance of RFID adopting firms.

Simultaneous Equation Estimation in Finance and Corporate Financial Decision: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange

  • AHMED, Wahab;KHAN, Hadi Hassan;RAUF, Abdul;ULHAQ, SM Nabeel;BANO, Safia;SARWAR, Bilal;HUDA, Shams ul;KHAN, Mirwaise;WALI, Ahmed;DURRANI, Maryam Najeeb
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2021
  • In the last few years, there is growing interest in the field of simultaneous equation estimation in finance due to the endogeneity problem caused by measurement errors, simultaneity, or omitted variables. This study aims to discuss the endogeneity problem in corporate financing decisions and investigate the interrelationship of financial decision-making such as investment decision, dividend decision, and external financing decision in Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) using two-stage least squares (2SLS) and generalized method of moment (GMM) estimation. The Bruech-Pagan test shows that the data has no heteroskedasticity issue and 2SLS is a better approach in the context of this study as compared to the GMM approach, and internal instruments are also sufficiently strong and valid. The three financial decision-making attributes are not jointly determined, and the dividend is influenced by one-sided investment. In the emerging stock market context, external financing and investment are not inter-related and did not affect each other. The question of whether the simultaneous equation estimation can be useful in the context of the emerging stock markets and newly-growing firms remains unanswered. The inclusive evidence shows that the theoretical link in the emerging stock market is difficult to prove like in developed stock markets.

A simple approach to refraction statics with the Generalized Reciprocal Method and the Refraction Convolution Section (GRM과 RCS 방법을 이용한 굴절파 정적 시간차를 구하는 간단한 방법)

  • Palmer Derecke;Jones Leonie
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.18-25
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    • 2005
  • We derive refraction statics for seismic data recorded in a hard rock terrain, in which there are large and rapid variations in the depth of weathering. The statics corrections range from less than 10 ms to more than 70 ms, often over distances as short as 12 receiver intervals. This study is another demonstration of the importance in obtaining accurate initial refraction models of the weathering in hard rock terrains in which automatic residual statics may fail. We show that the statics values computed with a simple model of the weathering using the Generalized Reciprocal Method (GRM) and the Refraction Convolution Section (RCS) are comparable in accuracy to those computed with a more complex model of the weathering, using least-mean-squares inversion with the conjugate gradient algorithm (Taner et al., 1998). The differences in statics values between the GRM model and that of Taner et al. (1998) systematically vary from an average of 2ms to 4ms over a distance of 8.8 km. The differences between these two refraction models and the final statics model, which includes the automatic residual values, are generally less than 5 ms. The residuals for the GRM model are frequently less than those for the model of Taner et al. (1998). The RCS statics are picked approximately 10 ms later, but their relative accuracy is comparable to that of the GRM statics. The residual statics values show a general correlation with the refraction statics values, and they can be reduced in magnitude by using a lower average seismic velocity in the weathering. These results suggest that inaccurate average seismic velocities in the weathered layer may often be a source of short-wavelength statics, rather than any shortcomings with the inversion algorithms in determining averaged delay times from the traveltimes.

Effect of polishing methods on color change by water absorption in several composite resins (여러 복합레진에서 수분 흡수에 의한 색변화에 연마가 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Hye Jin;Kim, Mi-yeon;Song, Byung-chul;Kim, Sun-ho;Kim, Jeong-hee
    • Journal of Dental Rehabilitation and Applied Science
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of polishing methods on the color stability of composite resins. Materials and Methods: Two bulk-fill and four conventional resin composites were filled in cylindrical molds (6 mm diameter, 4 mm height) and light-cured. The specimens were stored in $34^{\circ}C$ distilled water for 24 h. Spectrophotometer was used to determine the color value according to the CIE $L^*a^*b^*$ color space. Each group was divided into three groups according to polishing methods (n = 5). Group 1 was control group (Mylar strip group), group 2 was polished with PoGo, and group 3 was polished with Sof-Lex Spiral wheels. Color evaluation was performed weekly for 4 weeks after immersion in $34^{\circ}C$ distilled water. The results were analyzed by generalized least squares method (P < 0.05). Results: Generalized least squares analysis revealed that Sof-Lex Spiral wheels group showed the significantly lower ${\Delta}E$ values compared to PoGo and control group (P < 0.05). The ${\Delta}E$ values of polished group showed the significantly lower than the ${\Delta}E$ values of unpolished group (P < 0.05). Regarding color changes of composite resins, there was no significant difference between the ${\Delta}E$ values of Filtek Z250 and Filtek Z350 XT Universal restorative in all time intervals (P < 0.05). Tetric N-Ceram Bulk Fill showed the significantly lower ${\Delta}E$ values compared to other composite resins in 1, 2, 3 weeks (P < 0.05). Conclusion: Within the limitations of this study, polishing methods influence the color stabilities of composite resins. The group polished with Sof-Lex Spiral Wheels showed more resistance to discoloration than group polished with PoGo.

Development and application of GLS OD matrix estimation with genetic algorithm for Seoul inner-ringroad (유전알고리즘을 이용한 OD 추정모형의 개발과 적용에 관한 연구 (서울시 내부순환도로를 대상으로))

  • 임용택;김현명;백승걸
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.117-126
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    • 2000
  • Conventional methods for collecting origin-destination trips have been mainly relied on the surveys of home or roadside interview. However, the methods tend to be costly, labor intensive and time disruptive to the trip makers, thus the methods are not considered suitable for Planning applications such as routing guidance, arterial management and information Provision, as the parts of deployments in Intelligent Transport Systems Motivated by the problems, more economic ways to estimate origin-destination trip tables have been studied since the late 1970s. Some of them, which have been estimating O-D table from link traffic counts are generally Entropy maximizing, Maximum likelihood, Generalized least squares(GLS), and Bayesian inference estimation etc. In the Paper, with user equilibrium constraint we formulate GLS problem for estimating O-D trips and develop a solution a1gorithm by using Genetic Algorithm, which has been known as a g1oba1 searching technique. For the purpose of evaluating the method, we apply it to Seoul inner ringroad and compare it with gradient method proposed by Spiess(1990). From the resu1ts we fond that the method developed in the Paper is superior to other.

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The Analysis of Efficiency and Productivity in the Korean and Japanese Railways: A Stochastic Cost Frontier Approach (확률적 비용변경 접근법을 이용한 한국과 일본 철도산업의 효율성과 생산성 분석)

  • Park, Jin-Gyeong;Kim, Seong-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.141-157
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    • 2007
  • This paper evaluates the effects of privatization and deregulation on the firm-specific efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the Korean and Japanese railways. Using a stochastic frontier approach and a generalized translog functional form, the paper specifies the equation system consisting of a multiproduct variable cost function and input share equations which is estimated with Zellner's iterative seemingly unrelated regression and the corrected least squares method. The Korean and Japanese railway firms are assumed to produce three outputs (Shinkansen passenger-kilometers, incumbent railway passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers of freight) using three input factors (labor, fuel, maintenance and rolling stock). A monetary value of the ways and fixed installations held by the railroad firm is also included as a quasi-fixed input. The empirical results indicate that the average estimate of cost inefficiency is 2.57% for the total sample and on the average, JNR and JR Kyushu are found to be worst efficient while the most efficient railway firm in the sample is JR West. Also the cost efficiency levels of seven JRs have been improved after the reform and privatization of JNR. The findings also indicate that TFP growth of the privately-owned JRs are higher than those of the government-owned KNR and JNR. Three-island JRs and JR Freight have slightly higher TFP growth than Honshu JRs as well. Thus, the results suggest that managerial autonomy and increased competition via deregulation have improved efficiency and TFP growth.

Empirical Study About ODA Effects on Job Creation

  • Seung Hee Ha;JaeHong Park
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study empirically investigates the effects of Official Development Assistance (ODA) on the economic activities of private actors in recipient countries. As a proxy for the economic activities of private actors, we utilize the job creation activities of foreign subsidiaries in recipient countries. The foreign subsidiaries provide a foundation for economic development by creating paying jobs. That is, if ODA has been successfully transferred to foreign subsidiaries, then these foreign subsidiaries should help economic growth and help create a boom in the local market by providing jobs. These jobs eventually lead to the achievement of the primary aims of foreign aid, including poverty reduction. Thus, this study empirically examines the relationship between ODA and the number of jobs created by foreign subsidiaries in recipient countries. Design/methodology - This is the first study to examine the effects of the ODA on the job creation of foreign subsidiaries because it has been hard to obtain internal information related to the employment status of foreign subsidiaries. Fortunately, we have a unique panel dataset provided by the Export-Import Bank of Korea (KEXIM) for 2006 to 2013. In terms of the empirical specification, we use the generalized least squares (GLS) method. The panel GLS estimator allows us to have an efficient estimation that overcomes the limitations of the panel data. It employs assumptions about the heteroscedasticity between the panels and makes an autocorrelation of the error term within each panel. Findings - We find that ODA influences job creation in foreign subsidiaries. In particular, we found that ODA creates more jobs in sales than in managerial or production positions. This study also shows that the effect of the ODA on the foreign subsidiaries' job creation activities depend on the purpose of the ODA. By examining ODA effects on the foreign subsidiaries' economic activities (e.g., job creation), this study fills a gap in the current literature. Originality/value - Existing studies that focus on the ODA effect have either a macroeconomic point or a microeconomic point of view. However, both approaches do not explain how well foreign aid has influenced private economic actors of recipient countries. In essence, previous researchers found it difficult to obtain the necessary data for internal employment status from foreign subsidiaries. However, thanks to the Korea Export-Import Bank, this study shows that ODA indeed influences the job creation activities of foreign subsidiaries even after controlling for other factors such as FDI, GDP growth rate, employment rate, household expenditure, mother firms' share, etc. By doing so, we can examine how ODA influences the job creation of foreign subsidiaries, which might help economic development and reduce the amount of poverty in recipient countries.