• Title/Summary/Keyword: Generalized Additive Models

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Development of Species Distribution Models and Evaluation of Species Richness in Jirisan region (지리산 지역의 생물종 분포모형 구축 및 종풍부도 평가)

  • Kwon, Hyuk Soo;Seo, Chang Wan;Park, Chong Hwa
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2012
  • Increasing concern about biodiversity has lead to a rise in demand on the spatial assessment of biological resources such as biodiversity assessment, protected area selection, habitat management and restoration in Korea. The purpose of this study is to create species richness map through data collection and modeling techniques for wildlife habitat assessment. The GAM (Generalized Additive Model) is easy to interpret and shows better relationship between environmental variables and a response variable than an existing overlap analysis and GLM (Generalized Linear Model). The study area delineated by a large watershed contains Jirisan national park, Mt. Baekun and Sumjin river with three kinds of protected areas (a national park, a landscape ecology protected area and an otter protected area). We collected the presence-absence data for wildlife (mammals and birds) using a stratified random sampling based on a land cover in the study area and implemented natural and socio-environmental data affecting wildlife habitats. After doing a habitat use analysis and specifying significant factors for each species, we built habitat suitability models using a presence-absence model and created habitat suitability maps for each species. Biodiversity maps were generated by taxa and all species using habitat suitability maps. Significant factors affecting each species habitat were different according to their habitat selection. Although some species like a water deer or a great tit were distributed at the low elevation, most potential habitats for mammals and birds were found at the edge of a national park boundary or near a forest around the medium elevation of a mountain range. This study will be used for a basis on biodiversity assessment and proected area selection carried out by Ministry of Environment.

Generating high resolution of daily mean temperature using statistical models (통계적모형을 통한 고해상도 일별 평균기온 산정)

  • Yoon, Sanghoo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.1215-1224
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    • 2016
  • Climate information of the high resolution grid units is an important factor to explain the phenomenon in a variety of research field. Statistical linear interpolation models are computationally inexpensive and applicable to any climate data compared to the dynamic simulation method at regional scales. In this paper, we considered four different linear-based statistical interpolation models: general linear model, generalized additive model, spatial linear regression model, and Bayesian spatial linear regression model. The climate variable of interest was the daily mean temperature, where the spatial variability was explained using geographic terrain information: latitude, longitude, elevation. The data were collected by weather stations in January from 2003 and 2012. In the sense of RMSE and correlation coefficient, Bayesian spatial linear regression model showed better performance in reflecting the spatial pattern compared to the other models.

Quantitative Comparison of Probabilistic Multi-source Spatial Data Integration Models for Landslide Hazard Assessment

  • Park No-Wook;Chi Kwang-Hoon;Chung Chang-Jo F.;Kwon Byung-Doo
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.622-625
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents multi-source spatial data integration models based on probability theory for landslide hazard assessment. Four probabilistic models such as empirical likelihood ratio estimation, logistic regression, generalized additive and predictive discriminant models are proposed and applied. The models proposed here are theoretically based on statistical relationships between landslide occurrences and input spatial data sets. Those models especially have the advantage of direct use of continuous data without any information loss. A case study from the Gangneung area, Korea was carried out to quantitatively assess those four models and to discuss operational issues.

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A Traffic Equilibrium Model with Area-Based Non Additive Road Pricing Schemes (지역기반의 비가산성 도로통행료 부과에 따른 교통망 균형모형)

  • Jung, Jumlae
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5D
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    • pp.649-654
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    • 2008
  • In the definition of non additive path, the sum of travel costs of links making up the path is not equal to the path cost. There are a variety of cases that non-additivity assumption does not hold in transportation fields. Nonetheless, traffic equilibrium models are generally built up on the fundamental hypothesis of additivity assumption. In this case traffic equilibrium models are only applicable within restrictive conditions of the path cost being linear functions of link cost. Area-wide road pricing is known as an example of realistic transportation situations, which violates such additivity assumption. Because travel fare is charged at the moment of driver's passing by exit gate while identified at entry gate, it may not be added linearly proportional to link costs. This research proposes a novel Wordrop type of traffic equilibrium model in terms of area-wide road pricing schemes. It introduces binary indicator variable for the sake of transforming non-additive path cost to additive. Since conventional shortest path and Frank-Wolfe algorithm can be applied without route enumeration and network representation is not required, it can be recognized more generalized model compared to the pre-proposed approaches. Theoretical proofs and case studies are demonstrated.

An analysis of air apollution and daily mortality (대기중 총분진과 사망자수에 관한 분석)

  • Kim, Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.265-274
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    • 2000
  • Relationship between the daily mortality and total suspended particulate(TSP) for the period of 1996-1997 was examined in Seoul, Korea. Generalized additive model was adapted for the analysis to allow the seasonality and long-term time effect in the air pollution and the nonlinear relationships with weather variables such as air temperature and relative humidity. An increase of 100 Ji9/m') TSP corresponds to 0.8-5.2 percent increase of the daily mortality Unidirectional (prospective and retrospective) case-crossover design results in large bias of the estimates. Bidirectional method gives relatively unbiased estimates but the standard errors are larger Case-crossover design should be used with caution in the situation where the data have seasonal trends like air pollution study.

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Statistical Methods to Evaluate the Occurrence Probability of Exotic Fish in Japan (일본 서식 외래 담수어종의 서식확률 평가를 위한 통계기법 연구)

  • Han, Mi-Deok;Chung, Wook-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.195-202
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    • 2011
  • This study analyzed and modeled the relationships between the probabilities of two exotic species occurrence (i.e. largemouth bass and blue gill) and environmental factors such as climatic and geographical variables using Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Generalized Liner Models and Classification Tree Analysis (CTA). The most moderate occurrence probability of largemouth bass was predicted using GAM with an area under the curve (ADC) of 0.88 and Kappa of 0.42, while those of blue gill was suggested by using CTA with an AUC of 0.92 and Kappa of 0.44. The most significant environmental variable in terms of changes in deviance for both species was the annual air temperature for the occurrence probability. Dams had stronger effect on the occurrence of largemouth bass than blue gill. Model development and prediction for the occurrence probability of fish species and richness are necessary to prevent further spread of exotic fishes such as largemouth bass and blue gill because they can threaten habitats of native river ecosystem through various mechanisms.

Fitting Bivariate Generalized Binomial Models of the Sarmanov Type (Sarmanov형 이변량 일반화이항모형의 적합)

  • Lee, Joo-Yong;Kim, Kee-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 2009
  • For bivariate binomial data with both intra and inter-class correlation, Danaher and Hardie (2005) proposed a bivariate beta-binomial model. However, the model is limited to the situation where the intra-class correlation is strictly positive. Thus it might be seriously inadequate for data with a negative intra-class correlation. Several authors have considered generalized binomial distributions covering a wider range of intra-class correlation which could relax the possible model restrictions imposed. Among others there are the additive/multiplicative and the beta/extended beta binomial model. In this study, bivariate models of the Sarmanov (1966) type are formed by combining each of those univariate models to take care of the inter-class correlation, and are evaluated in terms of the goodness-of-fit. As a result, B-mB and B-ebB are fitted, successfully, to real data and that B-mB, which has a wider permissible range than B-ebB for the intra-class correlation is relatively preferred.

Projecting the Potential Distribution of Abies koreana in Korea Under the Climate Change Based on RCP Scenarios (RCP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 우리나라 구상나무 잠재 분포 변화 예측)

  • Koo, Kyung Ah;Kim, Jaeuk;Kong, Woo-seok;Jung, Huicheul;Kim, Geunhan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2016
  • The projection of climate-related range shift is critical information for conservation planning of Korean fir (Abies koreana E. H. Wilson). We first modeled the distribution of Korean fir under current climate condition using five single-model species distribution models (SDMs) and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method and then predicted the distributions under future climate conditions projected with HadGEM2-AO under four $CO_2$ emission scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. We also investigated the predictive uncertainty stemming from five individual algorithms and four $CO_2$ emission scenarios for better interpretation of SDM projections. Five individual algorithms were Generalized linear model (GLM), Generalized additive model (GAM), Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Generalized boosted model (GBM) and Random forest (RF). The results showed high variations of model performances among individual SDMs and the wide range of diverging predictions of future distributions of Korean fir in response to RCPs. The ensemble model presented the highest predictive accuracy (TSS = 0.97, AUC = 0.99) and predicted that the climate habitat suitability of Korean fir would increase under climate changes. Accordingly, the fir distribution could expand under future climate conditions. Increasing precipitation may account for increases in the distribution of Korean fir. Increasing precipitation compensates the negative effects of increasing temperature. However, the future distribution of Korean fir is also affected by other ecological processes, such as interactions with co-existing species, adaptation and dispersal limitation, and other environmental factors, such as extreme weather events and land-use changes. Therefore, we need further ecological research and to develop mechanistic and process-based distribution models for improving the predictive accuracy.

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Warm Temperate Evergreen Broad-leaved Trees in the Korean Peninsula (기후변화에 따른 한반도 난대성 상록활엽수 잠재서식지 분포 변화)

  • Park, Seon Uk;Koo, Kyung Ah;Kong, Woo-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.201-217
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    • 2016
  • We accessed the climate change effects on the distributions of warm-evergreen broad-leaved trees (shorten to warm-evergreens below) in the Korean Peninsula (KP). For this, we first selected nine warm-evergreens with the northern distribution limits at mid-coastal areas of KP and climate variables, coldest month mean temperature and coldest quarter precipitation, known to be important for warm-evergreens growth and survival. Next, species distribution models (SDMs) were constructed with generalized additive model (GAM) algorithm for each warm-evergreen. SDMs projected the potential geographical distributions of warm evergreens under current and future climate conditions in associations with land uses. The nine species were categorized into three groups (mid-coastal, southwest-coastal, and southeast-inland) based on their current spatial patterns. The effects of climate change and land uses on the distributions depend on the current spatial patterns. As considering land uses, the potential current habitats of all warm-evergreens decrease over 60%, showing the highest reduction rate for the Kyungsang-inland group. SDMs forecasted the expansion of potential habitats for all warm-evergreens under climate changes projected for 2050 and 2070. However, the expansion patterns were different among three groups. The spatial patterns of projected coldest quarter precipitation in 2050 and 2070 could account for such differences.

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Age Dependencies in Air Pollution-associated Asthma Hospitalization (PM10과 오존이 연령군별 천식 입원에 미치는 영향)

  • Bae, Hyun-Joo;Ha, Jong-Sik;Lee, Ae-Kyung;Park, Jeong-Im
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.124-130
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    • 2008
  • This study investigated the age dependencies in ambient air pollution-associated asthma hospitalization from 2003 to 2005 in Seoul. For all ages and the age groups of 0-14, 15-64, and 65+years, the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to estimate the relative risks of daily asthma hospitalization associated with changes in particulate matter and ozone. The time-trends, seasonal variances, day effects, temperature, humidity, and pressure at sea level were controlled in the models. Significant associations were observed between asthma hospitalization and the levels of $PM_{10}$ and $O_3$. The relative risks (RRs) of asthma hospitalization for every 10 unit increases in $PM_{10}({\mu}g/m^3)$ and $O_3$(ppb) were 1.008 (95% CI 1.005-1.012), and 1.012 (95% CI 1.003-1.020), respectively. Evaluated over $10\;{\mu}g/m^3$ increase in $PM_{10}$, we found the relative risks of asthma hospitalization to be 1.009 (95% CI 1.004-1.014) in 0-14 age group, and 1.015 (95% CI 1.008-1.022) in 65+ age group. Considering 10 ppb increase in $O_3$, those were 1.014 (95% CI 1.003-1.024) in 0-14 age group, and 1.025 (95% CI 1.009-1.041) in 65+ age group. It was concluded that current levels of ambient air pollution in Seoul make a significant contribution to the variation in daily asthma hospitalization. Further reduction in air pollution is necessary to protect the health of the community, especially that of the higher risky groups including children and elderly population.