• 제목/요약/키워드: Gap Risk

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资产价格波动对中国宏观经济风险的影响 (Asset Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Risk in China)

  • Jishi, Piao;Mengjiao, Liu
    • 분석과 대안
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    • 제3권1호
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    • pp.135-157
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    • 2019
  • The linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes are long-standing issue to both economists and monetary authorities. This paper explores the impact of asset prices on output and price in China. It focuses on the impacts of asset prices on the low quantiles of GDP gap and high quantiles of price gaprespectively. The main findings are the following: the influence of stock price gap, stock returns, and money growth on the different quantile of GDP gap and price gap are noticeable different, and there are significant impacts on the left tail of GDP gap distribution and on the right tail of price gap distribution. This implies that the results coming from simple regression will underestimate the economic risk imposed by asset price volatility. Moreover, these results also provide the caveat that one should cautiously distinguish the meaning of asset price gap and asset price growth rate and use them, through their contents are similar in some sense. One implication for monetarypolicy is that authority should interpret the relationship between asset prices and macro-economy in wider perspectives, and make the policy decision taking the impacts of asset prices on the tails of economy.

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여성의 경제생활 위험인식이 출산 격차에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Influence of Women's Economic Risk Perception on the Fertility Gap)

  • 정윤태
    • 한국사회정책
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.219-241
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    • 2018
  • 이 연구의 목적은 여성의 경제생활 위험인식이 출산 격차에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 데 있다. 여성이 체감하는 실업 빈곤의 위험, 주거불안의 위험, 금융불안의 위험, 경기침체 불안의 위험 등 경제생활 위험이 실제 출산한 자녀의 수와 이상적으로 생각하는 자녀의 수의 차이에 유의한 영향을 미치는지를 살펴보고자 했다. 이를 위해 한국종합사회조사(KGSS) 2014년도 자료를 활용하여 탐색적 요인분석, 신뢰도 분석, 상관관계 분석과 다중 회귀분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과, 경제생활 위험의 발생 가능성을 심각하게 인식하는 여성일수록 출산한 자녀의 수가 적은 반면 출산 격차는 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이 연구는 이상의 결과를 바탕으로 정책적 제언을 제시하였다.

The Short-run and Long-run Dynamics Between Liquidity and Real Output Growth: An Empirical Study in Indonesia

  • JUMONO, Sapto;SOFYAN, Joel Faruk;SUGIYANTO, Sugiyanto;MALA, Chajar Matari Fath
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.595-605
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    • 2021
  • The objectives of this research are to see if the phenomena of "demand following" and "supply leading" exist in the business cycle, as well as to look at how liquidity and output react to changes in credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and growth rate of real national output. Employing quarterly data of Maluku and North Maluku (2008-2019), this study utilizes VAR/VECM for inferential analysis. This research found three important findings. First, liquidity and output growth influenced each other in the long run. Second, the determinants of output growth for Maluku are liquidity, investment-saving gap, and inflation, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, the gap of investment-saving, and inflation. Third, the determinants of output growth for North Maluku are liquidity, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and the national output-growth, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and national output-growth. The findings of this study supported the hypothesis of demand following and supply leading theory in the Maluku and North Maluku business cycles. This study concludes that economic development would improve if supported by liquidity adequacy through increased deposit growth.

통화선물거래의 거래위험 감소효과에 관한 연구 (Trading Risk Reduction Effects for Currency Futures Markets)

  • 최흥식;김선웅;박은진
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to show the risk reduction effects of round-the-clock trading environment. We analyse the trading results of the currency futures contracts in CME Globex which are open 23 hours a day. These include Euro FX, Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar, and British Pound from January 2005 to August 2013. We generate new price series using only daytime prices during about 7-hour period. This hypothetical "G" data series may have greater gap risk than the original "R" data series. Empirical results show the trading risk reduction effects, that is R data series have higher profits and lower risks than G data series.

섭식장애 위험군 여중생의 체중, 식습관과 식이자아효능감 (Weight, Eating Habits and Dietary Self-efficacy of Middle School Girls with Eating Disorder)

  • 이효정;이승교;원향례
    • 한국지역사회생활과학회지
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.283-295
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    • 2008
  • The slimness favored trend made students shape up body image by weight control using restrained eating. Many students especially female ones tend to be in eating disorder status. The aim of this study was to find the relation between weight, eating habits and dietary self efficacy in the selected middle school girl students group with high risk eating disorder (7.9%) and the one with low risk eating disorder (24.1%). This study was conducted by EAT-26 questionnaire method and all the data was analyzed by SAS (Statistical Analysis System) program. The results were as follows; The physical condition of eating disorder students (159.5cm height, 50.7kg weight and 97.4% PIBW) was higher and bigger than that of normal students(158.2 cm, 47.2 kg, and 92.6% PIBW). Weight control experience in the high risk group (69.4%) was significantly more frequent than normal group (p<0.001). The gap between actual body weight and desired weight was higher in high risk eating disorder group than in normal group (p<0.001). Dietary self-efficacy score of middle school female students in the high risk eating disorder group was high when they were in temper, in confusion, and after argument. However, when they were in cooking (p<0.01), with friends (p<0.05), in assembling dishes (p<0.01), and with family (p<0.05) the dietary self-efficacy score of high risk group was lower than that of normal group. In the high risk eating disorder group, eating speed was often faster (p<0.05) and overeating rate (p<0.01) was higher than in normal group. In general, EAT-26 score was correlated positively with gap weight, but negatively correlated with dietary self efficacy score(p<0.01). Gap weight and dietary self efficacy were significantly different in normal group. however, there was no relation in high risk eating disorder group. Under the circumstance of high risk eating disorder, as weight and dietary self efficacy did not affect the relation with eating disorder score, when it is determined as eating disorder some other factors besides weight and diet self efficacy seem to affect the eating disorder score. In conclusion, the factors related with eating disorder were gap weight and some items of dietary self efficacy. Thus, correct understanding of healthy weight and dietary self efficacy enhancement require the development of nutrition education contents and the practice of nutrition education.

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토지이용의 위험성 제어계획 -사용 밀도에 따른 기준치 설정의 접근방법- (Planning Controls for Land Use Safety)

  • 노삼규
    • 한국화재소방학회논문지
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.20-27
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    • 1996
  • This paper discussed the limit of existing safety controls where the use of land around hazardous industry. There is a gap between engineering evaluation of acceptable criteria for loss reduction and risk exposure to the areas of high risk outside plants from the aspects of risk perception. The paper performed how land use safety could be designed between the density of uses with the duration of risk exposure by type of land use. It concluded the needs of multi-dimensional presentation for an appropriate risk controls on existing and future land use safety.

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Optimal Portfolio Models for an Inefficient Market

  • GINTING, Josep;GINTING, Neshia Wilhelmina;PUTRI, Leonita;NIDAR, Sulaeman Rahman
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2021
  • This research attempts to formulate a new mean-risk model to replace the Markowitz mean-variance model by altering the risk measurement using ARCH variance instead of the original variance. In building the portfolio, samples used are closing prices of Indonesia Composite Stock Index and Indonesia Composite Bonds Index from 2013 to 2018. This study is a qualitative study using secondary data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange and Indonesia Bonds Pricing Agency. This research found that Markowitz's model is still superior when utilized in daily data, while the mean-ARCH model is appropriate with wider gap data like monthly observation. The Historical return has also proven to be more appropriate as a benchmark in selecting an optimal portfolio rather than a risk-free rate in an inefficient market. Therefore Mean-ARCH is more appropriate when utilized under data that have a wider gap between the period. The research findings show that the portfolio combination produced is inefficient due to the market inefficiency indicated by the meager return of the stock, while bears notable standard deviation. Therefore, the researcher of this study proposed to replace the risk-free rate as a benchmark with the historical return. The Historical return proved to be more realistic than the risk-free rate in inefficient market conditions.

Searching for the Cause of the Gender Gap in Employment Losses during the COVID-19 Crisis

  • KIM, JIYEON
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • 제43권2호
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    • pp.53-79
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    • 2021
  • The recession caused by the COVID-19 crisis has features that could disproportionately harm female employment. Risk of infection and social distancing measures may have disrupted jobs in face-to-face industries, which have traditionally hired more women than men. School closures and a consequent increase in childcare and homeschooling demands may have discouraged labor market participation by working mothers. Using the Economically Active Population Survey, I examine how female employment was affected by each factor. I find that the gender gap in the Employment to Non-participation (E to N) transition rates is twice as large as the gap in the Employment to Unemployment (E to U) transition rates. Women's overrepresentation in the face-to-face industries accounts for most of the gap in the E to U transition but only a third of the gap in the E to N transition. The rise in non-participation is especially pronounced among married women aged 39-44, the group most likely to have elementary-school-age children.

GAP 농산물의 수확 후 처리에 사용되는 지하수의 위해성평가 (Risk Assessment of Groundwater Used for Washing GAP-certified Agricultural Crops after Harvest)

  • 김황용;백민경;김아름누리;이동규;정미혜;김원일;오진아;김세리;홍수명
    • 한국식품위생안전성학회지
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    • 제34권6호
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    • pp.551-556
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    • 2019
  • 세척수에 포함된 무기물질의 함량이 먹는 물의 수질기준을 초과하여, 참외 GAP 인증을 받지 못하는 사례가 최근 들어 종종 발생하고 있다. 이에 농업현장에서는 껍질을 제거하여 먹는 참외의 소비특성을 감안하여 세척수 수질기준의 일부를 완화해 줄 것을 요청하고 있다. 이에, 본 연구에서는 성주 지역에서 2017-2019년 GAP 인증 참외의 세척에 이용되는 지하수 142건의 수질자료를 근거로 무기물질 4종(불소, 비소, 철, 망간)의 인체 위해성을 평가하였다. 연구 결과, 성주 지역 GAP 참외의 세척에 사용되는 지하수를 음용수 수준으로 섭취하는 우리나라 국민의 4종 무기물질에 대한 HQ는 모두 평균 0.10 이하로 안전한 수준이었다. 특히, 심미적 영향물질인 철, 망간의 경우 성주 지역 지하수를 음용수 수준으로 섭취하는 경우 HQ가 평균 0.00. 과다노출군의 경우 0.01나타났는데, 일반 참외를 섭취하는 국민의 HQ(평균 0.01, 과다노출군 0.03)보다 낮은 수준이었다. 따라서, 성주 지역 지하수를 GAP 농산물의 세척에 활용하더라도 철, 망간을 포함한 4종 무기물질이 인체에 미치는 영향은 미미할 것으로 생각된다.