• Title/Summary/Keyword: GAP분석

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A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

Rural Migration and Changes of Agricultural Population (농민이촌(農民離村)과 농업인구(農業人口)의 변화(變化))

  • Wu, Tsong-Shien;Kim, Kuong-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.91-116
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    • 1974
  • Taiwan agricultural development in the last decade has not been changed much since the accomplishment of land reform program. This is mainly due to the rapid development taken place within industry that agricultural development can not keep pace with. The increasing gap of rural-urban income discrepancy has caused socio-psychological unstability among rural people and inspire wants of out-migration. From 1961 to 1970, population of the ten largest cities showed an annual growth rate of 4.05%, while the population of the remainder of Taiwan showed 2.06%. Assuming the natural increase rate of these two population sections are similar, the difference of rural and urban annual growth rate can be at tributed to the flow of people from rural to urban sectors. The main objective of this paper is to identify the amount of agricultural out-migration and its impact on agricultural development and agricultural extension programs. Specifically, the objectives are to examine (1) rural-urban population composition (2) rural out-migration estimation (3) changes of agricultural population, and (4) implications for agricultural development and extension programs Some of the important findings are listed below; (1) The average agricultural out migration of the period 1960-1969 is estimated at around 60,000 per year. Take Tainan prefecture for example, the Male-Female Migration Ratio is 0.39 for age 20-24, 0.55 for age 25-29, 0.90 for 30-34. It is understood between age 20 and 34, the rural female migration rate is higher than the rural male. (2) Based on the population growth rate of 1950-1969, agricultural population is projected for the period of 1953 to 1989. By 1978, the agricultural population will reach its peak and begin to dedaine from 1980. The projected agricultural population in 1989 is 5,847,566 which occupies 29% of the Taiwan total population. (3) Assuming area of cultivated land keep unchanged as 905,263 ha. in 1970, and tif we can eliminate all 72% of part-time farms, then the average farm acreage for hose full-time farms will be increased to 3.6 hactares. This is unlikely to happen before 1989 without the government interference. (4) Less than 10% of adult farmer s of age 25-64 in 1969 enrolled in Farm Discussion Club, only 5% of adult farm women enrolled in Home Economics Club, and 5% of rural youth enrolled in 4-H Club. These statistics show a fact that only few farmers are reached by extension workers. Based on findings in this paper, some important suggestions are listed for future agricultural development. (1) Improve agricultural structure by decreasing agricultural population (a) Encourage farmers with less than 0.5 ha. of land to seek jobs outside of agriculture (b) Encourage joint cultivation and farm mechanization (c) Discourage rural migrants to Keep farm land (d) Provide occupational guidance program through extension education programs (2) Establish future farmers settlement project to assure rural youth have enough resources for farming. (3) An optimum Population policy should be integrated into rural socio-economic development and national development programs.

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A Study on the Morphological Structure of Sasul-Sijo (사설시조의 형태구조 연구)

  • Won, Yong-Moon
    • Sijohaknonchong
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    • v.23
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    • pp.161-188
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study was to delve into the morphological types of Sijo in an effort to determine the morphological structure of Sasul-sijo, and it's also attempted to present standard about how to discriminate Pyong-si, Eos-sijo and Sasul-sijo from one another from a morphological standpoint. It's suggested that Si with tee Jangs, six verses and 12 stanzas or more, with three Jangs, seven verses and 14 stanzas or more, and with three Jangs, eight verses and 16 stanzas or more should respectively be called Pyong-sijo, Eos-sijo and Sasul-sijo. After what Sijo was and what's not were discussed, how to distinguish Eos-sijo from Sasul-sijo was described, and finally, the structure of Sasul-sijo was presented. As for Sijo and non-Sijo, the types of works that consisted of tee Jangs, like Sijo, yet didn't suit its framework and Yuljo and were written in Chinese characters were regarded as non-Sijo. Concerning discrimination between Eos-si and Sasul-sijo, the type of Sijo that included one more or higher number of verse(s) and two more or higher number of stanzas in one of three Jangs was defined as Eos-sijo, and the type of Sijo that involved two more or higher number of verses and four more or higher number of stanzas in one of three Jangs was called Sasul-sijo. In other words, Eos-sijo contained one more verse in one of tee Jangs, and Sasul-sijo included one more Jang in one tee Jangs. The sort of Sijo that contained one more Jang in one of three Jangs could be viewed as Sasul-sijo. Regarding the structure of Sasul-si, there should be three Jangs, eight verses and 16 stanzas in one piece of Sasul-sijo. Any type of Sijo that contained two more or higher number of verses and four more or higher number of stanzas could be called Sasul-sijo. Such an addition of verse and stanza could done in various ways. The examples were (1) adding stanzas the first Jang, 2) adding stanzas to the second Jang, (3) adding stanzas to the final Jang, (4) adding stanzas to both the first and Second Jangs, (5) adding stanzas to th the second and final Jangs, and (6) adding stanzas to all the first, second and third Jangs at the same time. Besides, there was an extremely broad gap between the numbers of verse and stanza in Sasul-sijo, which ranged from a low of eight stanzas to a high of 87 ones in one of three Jangs.

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A Study on the Job Performance of Dental Coordinators and Their Perception (치과코디네이터의 업무수행 및 인식도에 관한 조사연구)

  • Kwon, Soon-Bok;Kim, Young-Nam;Moon, Hee-Jung;Shin, Myung-Suk;Han, Gyeong-Soon;Han, Su-Jin
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.211-220
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the job performance of dental coordinators and their perception of their job to lay the groundwork for utilizing dental personnels more efficiently. The subjects in this study were dental coordinators who worked at selected dental hospitals and clinics in Seoul, Gyeonggi province and Incheon. A survey was conducted to gather data from May 1 to August 8, 2005 and answer sheets from 108 respondents were analyzed. The findings of the study were as follows: 1. As for the length of service, 43.5 percent of the dental coordinators investigated had worked at dental institutes for five years or more, which was followed by less than two years(19.5%) and three years to less than five years(19.4%). Concerning the length of service as dental coordinators, 39.8 percent had served for less than two years, and 19.4 percent had worked for two years to less than three years and for five years or more respectively. Regarding the name of position, 38 percent were called team leaders, and 30.6 percent were called coordinators. As to duties, the largest group of them that stood at 30.6 percent were in charge of receiving, and in regard to department, the largest group, 57.4 percent, belonged to the treatment backup department. 2. Concerning education, the greatest number of them, 45.4 percent, had received education at private institutes, and 73.1 percent found it necessary for dental coordinators to take an authorized qualification test. 43.5 percent, the largest group, looked upon the central government as the best organization to authorize their qualifications and 70.8 percent believed that what they learned enabled them to perform their job successfully. As to the necessity of follow-up education as a means to improve job performance, 96.3 percent consented to it. As for the reason, 63.9 percent considered that necessary to enhance their own ability and 22.2 percent were in want of systematic education. Regarding educational expenses, 29.6 percent were subsidized by the dental institutes where they had worked and 25.9 percent had totally been responsible for that. Regarding a required course, medical service and marketing was most widely pointed out(66.7%), followed by theory and practice(65.7%) and introduction to dentistry(57.4%). As to what sort of education they wanted to receive more, dental service and marketing was selected the most, followed by practical health insurance(35.2%). 3. In regard to what type of job they performed as dental coordinators, 88.9 percent were in charge of appointment in the field of customer service, and 87.9 percent paid attention to having good manners as service providers in the area of self-management. In the field of hospital affairs, 81.3 percent were in charge of receiving. 4. As to their awareness of dental coordinator job, the largest group took pride in the job they performed ($3.99{\pm}0.76$), and the second largest group believed that dental coordinators made a great contribution to hospital management ($3.92{\pm}0.70$). The third largest group gave a great weight to their own job ($3.91{\pm}0.84$) in light of overall dental duties and the fourth largest group found themselves to get along with other employees regardless of position ($3.86{\pm}0.74$). The fifth largest group believed their job was of great use for promoting the oral health of patients ($3.76{\pm}0.75$), and the sixth largest group thought the future of dental coordinators was promising($3.74{\pm}0.86$). 5. In regard to their perception by age group, those who were older had a better opinion on every item of their job in general. Their age made a statistically significant difference to their view of the weight of dental coordinator job(P < 0.001) in light of overall dental duties, of being approved and trusted by managers(P < 0.01), of social awareness of dental coordinator, and of being understood and approved by other employees and dentists. Their pride in current job and their satisfaction with the name of their position were statistically significantly different according to their age as well. Besides, their age made a statistically significant difference to their opinion about whether or not there was an age limit to their occupation and about their contribution to hospital management (P < 0.05). 6. As for their perception by type of job, the dental hygienists were generally most satisfied with their job, followed by nursing aids and others. There was a statistically significant gap among their opinions about whether to make a job-related decision on their own(P < 0.001). the weight of their job in terms of overall dental duties, whether their job improved their ability, whether their job made a great contribution to enhancing the oral health of patients, whether their job was understood and approved by other employees(P < 0.01), social awareness of their job, whether they conflicted with other employees during job performance, and whether dental hospitals or clinics offered a self-development opportunity for them to take their ability to another level(P < 0.05). And their satisfaction with current pay was statistically significantly different as well.

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