• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future failure prediction

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A Study for Lifespan Prediction of Expansion by Temperature Status (온도상태에 따른 신축관 이음의 수명예측에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Jung-Soo;Lee, Bong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.10
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    • pp.424-429
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    • 2018
  • In this study, an expansion joint that is susceptible to waterhammer was tested for its vibration durability. The operation data for the hydraulic actuator was the expansion length of the expansion joint when the waterhammer occurred. In the case of the vibration durability test, the internal temperature status of the expansion joint was assumed to be a stress factor and a lifespan prediction model was assumed to follow the Arrhenius model. A test was carried out by increasing the internal temperature status at $30^{\circ}C$, $50^{\circ}C$, and $65^{\circ}C$. By a linear transformation of the lifespan data for each temperature, a constant value and activation energy coefficient was induced for the Arrhenius equation and verified by comparing the value of a lifetime prediction model with the experimental value at $85^{\circ}C$. The failure modes of the ongoing or finished test were leakage, bellows separation, and internal deformation. In the future, a composite lifespan prediction model, including two more stress factors, will be developed.

Feasibility on Statistical Process Control Analysis of Delivery Quality Assurance in Helical Tomotherapy (토모테라피에서 선량품질보증 분석을 위한 통계적공정관리의 타당성)

  • Kyung Hwan, Chang
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.491-502
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to retrospectively investigate the upper and lower control limits of treatment planning parameters using EBT film based delivery quality assurance (DQA) results and to analyze the results of statistical process control (SPC) in helical tomotherapy (HT). A total of 152 patients who passed or failed DQA results were retrospectively included in this study. Prostate (n = 66), rectal (n = 51), and large-field cancer patients, including lymph nodes (n = 35), were randomly selected. The absolute point dose difference (DD) and global gamma passing rate (GPR) were analyzed for all patients. Control charts were used to evaluate the upper and lower control limits (UCL and LCL) for all the assessed treatment planning parameters. Treatment planning parameters such as gantry period, leaf open time (LOT), pitch, field width, actual and planning modulation factor, treatment time, couch speed, and couch travel were analyzed to provide the optimal range using the DQA results. The classification and regression tree (CART) was used to predict the relative importance of variables in the DQA results from various treatment planning parameters. We confirmed that the proportion of patients with an LOT below 100 ms in the failure group was relatively higher than that in the passing group. SPC can detect QA failure prior to over dosimetric QA tolerance levels. The acceptable tolerance range of each planning parameter may assist in the prediction of DQA failures using the SPC tool in the future.

LSTM-based Anomaly Detection on Big Data for Smart Factory Monitoring (스마트 팩토리 모니터링을 위한 빅 데이터의 LSTM 기반 이상 탐지)

  • Nguyen, Van Quan;Van Ma, Linh;Kim, Jinsul
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.789-799
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    • 2018
  • This article presents machine learning based approach on Big data to analyzing time series data for anomaly detection in such industrial complex system. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network have been demonstrated to be improved version of RNN and have become a useful aid for many tasks. This LSTM based model learn the higher level temporal features as well as temporal pattern, then such predictor is used to prediction stage to estimate future data. The prediction error is the difference between predicted output made by predictor and actual in-coming values. An error-distribution estimation model is built using a Gaussian distribution to calculate the anomaly in the score of the observation. In this manner, we move from the concept of a single anomaly to the idea of the collective anomaly. This work can assist the monitoring and management of Smart Factory in minimizing failure and improving manufacturing quality.

Prediction of Scour Potential Distributions in a Shallow Plunge Pool (얕은 감세지내의 세굴능 분포형태의 예측)

  • 손광익
    • Water for future
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 1994
  • Because a failure to provide enough plunge pool depth can create a risk to the structural stability of the psillways or dams, many researchers have proposed experimental formulas for claculating ultimate scour depth under jet issued from spillways and pipe culverts. For the design purposes of a plunge pool, scour potential distribution is important as much as the ultimate scour depth is. In this study scour potential distributions near the jet impinging point on a porous plane which can simulate a real cohesionless movable flat bed has been measured. Experimental results showed that scour potential distributions are geometrically similar to each other provided the angle of jet impact was the same. Statistical analysis of experimental results showed that scour potential distributions for the design purposes of a plunge pool could be expressed by a single equation within a range of this experiment. The proposed formula for the prediction of scour potential distributions agrees well with experimental measurements.

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Development and Applications of a Methodology and Computer Algorithms for Long-term Management of Water Distribution Pipe Systems (상수도 배수관로 시스템의 장기적 유지관리를 위한 방법론과 컴퓨터 알고리즘의 개발 및 적용)

  • Park, Suwan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.356-366
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    • 2007
  • In this paper a methodology is developed to prioritize replacement of water distribution pipes according to the economical efficiency of replacement and assess the long-term effects of water main replacement policies on water distribution systems. The methodology is implemented with MATLAB to develop a computer algorithm which is used to apply the methodology to a case study water distribution system. A pipe break prediction model is used to estimate future costs of pipe repair and replacement, and the economically optimal replacement time of a pipe is estimated by obtaining the time at which the present worth of the total costs of repair and replacement is minimum. The equation for estimating the present worth of the total cost is modified to reflect the fact that a pipe can be replaced in between of failure events. The results of the analyses show that about 9.5% of the pipes in the case study system is required to be replaced within the planning horizon. Analyses of the yearly pipe replacement requirements for the case study system are provided along with the compositions of the replacement. The effects of water main replacement policies, for which yearly replacement length scenario and yearly replacement budget scenario are used, during a planning horizon are simulated in terms of the predicted number of pipe failures and the saved repair costs.

Autonomous vision-based damage chronology for spatiotemporal condition assessment of civil infrastructure using unmanned aerial vehicle

  • Mondal, Tarutal Ghosh;Jahanshahi, Mohammad R.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.733-749
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    • 2020
  • This study presents a computer vision-based approach for representing time evolution of structural damages leveraging a database of inspection images. Spatially incoherent but temporally sorted archival images captured by robotic cameras are exploited to represent the damage evolution over a long period of time. An access to a sequence of time-stamped inspection data recording the damage growth dynamics is premised to this end. Identification of a structural defect in the most recent inspection data set triggers an exhaustive search into the images collected during the previous inspections looking for correspondences based on spatial proximity. This is followed by a view synthesis from multiple candidate images resulting in a single reconstruction for each inspection round. Cracks on concrete surface are used as a case study to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach. Once the chronology is established, the damage severity is quantified at various levels of time scale documenting its progression through time. The proposed scheme enables the prediction of damage severity at a future point in time providing a scope for preemptive measures against imminent structural failure. On the whole, it is believed that the present study will immensely benefit the structural inspectors by introducing the time dimension into the autonomous condition assessment pipeline.

Statistical Approach for Corrosion Prediction Under Fuzzy Soil Environment

  • Kim, Mincheol;Inakazu, Toyono;Koizumi, Akira;Koo, Jayong
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2013
  • Water distribution pipes installed underground have potential risks of pipe failure and burst. After years of use, pipe walls tend to be corroded due to aggressive soil environments where they are located. The present study aims to assess the degree of external corrosion of a distribution pipe network. In situ data obtained through test pit excavation and direct sampling are carefully collated and assessed. A statistical approach is useful to predict severity of pipe corrosion at present and in future. First, criteria functions defined by discriminant function analysis are formulated to judge whether the pipes are seriously corroded. Data utilized in the analyses are those related to soil property, i.e., soil resistivity, pH, water content, and chloride ion. Secondly, corrosion factors that significantly affect pipe wall pitting (vertical) and spread (horizontal) on the pipe surface are identified with a view to quantifying a degree of the pipe corrosion. Finally, a most reliable model represented in the form of a multiple regression equation is developed for this purpose. From these analyses, it can be concluded that our proposed model is effective to predict the severity and rate of pipe corrosion utilizing selected factors that reflect the fuzzy soil environment.

A Study on Prediction of Suspension Time of Unmanned Light Rail according to Safety Personal Deployment (안전요원 배치 여부에 따른 무인운전 경전철의 운행중단 시간예측 연구)

  • Sang Log Kwak
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2023
  • The number of unmanned light rail train operators is continuously increasing in Korea. In a failure event during an operation due to the nature of the unmanned operation, recovery is performed based on the remote control. However, if remote recovery is not feasible, safety personnel arrive at the train to resume the train operation. There are regulations on safety personnel and the suspension time of the train operation. However, there is currently no rule for safety personnel deployment. Currently, railway operating organizations operate in three scenarios: safety personnel on board trains, stationed at stations, and deployed at major stations. Four major factors influence the downtime for each emergency response scenario. However, these four influencing factors vary too much to predict results with simple calculations. In this study, four influencing factors were considered as random variables with high uncertainty. In addition, the Monte Carlo method was applied to each scenario for the safety personnel deployment to predict train service downtime. This study found a 17% difference in train service suspension by safety personnel deployment scenario. The results of this study can be used in setting service goals, such as standards for future safety personnel placement and frequency of service interruptions.

A Study for the Development of Fault Diagnosis Technology Based on Condition Monitoring of Marine Engine (선박 엔진의 상태감시 기반 고장진단 기술 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Cheul;Jang, Hwa-Sup;Jo, Yeon-Hwa
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.230-231
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    • 2019
  • This study is a development on condition based maintenance(CBM) technology which is a core item of future autonomous ships. It is developing to design & installation of condition monitoring system and acquisition & processing of data from ongoing ships for fault prediction & prognosis of engine in operation. The ultimate goal of this study is to develop a predicts and decision support software for marine engine faults. To do this, the FMEA and fault tree analysis of the main engine should be accompanied by the analysis of classification of system, identification of the components, the type of faults, and the cause and phenomenon of the failure. Finally, the CBM system solution software could predict and diagnose the failure of main engine through integrated analysis for bid-data of ongoing ships and engineering knowledge. Through this study, it is possible to pro-actively cope with abnormal signals of engine and to manage efficiently, and as a result, expected that marine accident and ship operation loss during navigation will be prevented in advance.

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Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.