• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future climate change

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Systematic Analysis of Climate and Installation Price change for Photovoltaic System

  • Lee, Gyeong-Ju;Song, Sang-U;Park, On-Jeon;No, Ji-Hyeong;Mun, Byeong-Mu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2013.02a
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    • pp.692-693
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    • 2013
  • The effects of Climate change and Installation Price for Photovoltaic System were investigated through power generation analysis and economic analysis though. Photovoltaic System would be the same as governmental regulated 3 KW capacity used for the analysis. Also climate information which are serviced on the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) used as well. The experimental results indicate that climate change and installation price change could be influenced more higher on photovoltaic system than last 30-years. Furthermore the economic advantages could be higher on the future.

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A Study on the Influence of Experience Environmental Education Program on Youth's Environmental Consciousness due to Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 체험활동 중심의 환경교육이 청소년 환경의식에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Mi-Hye
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 2015
  • The significance of this study is to see the influence of experience environmental education program on youth's environmental consciousness due to climate change. An experience environmental education can provide an opportunity to make cooperative interaction with friends and can give interest in surrounding environment. Also in this study, it reveals that experience education played an important role in changing of attitude and awareness to environment and nature. As climate change is very important through all countries, these positive effects suggest that experienced environmental education lessons are important for the future generation's awareness on climate change and environmental consciousness.

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Assessing the Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Reservoirs using the SWAT model and CMIP5 GCMs (SWAT모형과 CMIP5 자료를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 농업용 저수지 기후변화 영향 평가)

  • Cho, Jaepil;Hwang, Syewoon;Go, Gwangdon;Kim, Kwang-Young;Kim, Jeongdae
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2015
  • The study aimed to project inflows and demmands for the agricultural reservoir watersheds in South Korea considering a variety of regional characteristics and the uncertainty of future climate information. The study bias-corrected and spatially downscaled retrospective daily Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios using non-parametric quantile mapping method to force Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Using the historical simulation, the skills of un-calibrated SWAT model (without calibration process) was evaluated for 5 reservoir watersheds (selected as well-monitored representatives). The study then, evaluated the performance of 9 GCMs in reproducing historical upstream inflow and irrigation demand at the five representative reservoirs. Finally future inflows and demands for 58 watersheds were projected using 9 GCMs projections under the two RCP scenarios. We demonstrated that (1) un-calibrated SWAT model is likely applicable to agricultural watershed, (2) the uncertainty of future climate information from different GCMs is significant, (3) multi-model ensemble (MME) shows comparatively resonable skills in reproducing water balances over the study area. The results of projection under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario generally showed the increase of inflow by 9.4% and 10.8% and demand by 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively. More importantly, the results for different seasons and reservoirs varied considerably in the impacts of climate change.

Climate Change Impact on Korean Stone Heritage: Research Trends and Prospect (국내 석조유산의 기후변화 영향: 연구동향과 미래전망)

  • Kim, Jiyoung
    • Journal of Conservation Science
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.437-448
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    • 2016
  • Studies on vulnerability of cultural heritage and adaptation strategy to worldwide climate change have been actively carried out in advanced countries since the late 20th century, and this established a valid research methodology and piled up climate and deterioration dataset in the field of climate change. Meanwhile, we still have tasks to acquire related scientific data despite referencing political researches in Korea. Applying Korean future climate to impact analysis, deterioration of Korean stone heritage is likely prospected to change into complexity in terms of physical, chemical and biological weathering that may bring impacts on conservation business and administrative field of cultural heritage. Further studies will ensure detailed implication of climate change impact on Korean stone heritage by means of down-scaling analysis of areas to local scale and dataset frequency to an hour. It is important to sort out capability and vulnerability of the stone heritage to future environment, and to make an adaption and prevention strategies.

Local Adaptation Plan to Climate Change Impact in Seoul: Focused on Heat Wave Effects (서울시 기후변화 영향평가 및 적응대책 수립: 폭염영향을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Eunyoung;Jeon, Seong-Woo;Lee, Jung-Won;Park, Yong-Ha;Lee, Dong-Kun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2012
  • Against the backdrop of the clear impact of climate change, it has become essential to analyze the influence of climate change and relevant vulnerabilities. This research involved evaluating the impact of heat waves in Seoul, from among many local autonomous bodies that are responsible for implementing measures on adapting to climate change. To carry out the evaluation, the A1B scenario was used to forecast future temperature levels. Future climate scenario results were downscaled to $1km{\times}1km$ to result in the incorporation of regional characteristics. In assessing the influence of heat waves on people-especially the excess mortality-we analyzed critical temperature levels that affect excess mortality and came up with the excess mortality. Results of this evaluation on the impact of climate change and vulnerabilities indicate that the number of days on which the daily average temperature reaches $28.1^{\circ}C$-the critical temperature for excess mortality-in Seoul will sharply increase in the 2050s and 2090s. The highest level of impact will be in the month of August. The most affected areas in the summer will be Songpa-gu, Gangnam-gu, and Yeongdeungpo-gu. These areas have a high concentration of residences which means that heat island effects are one of the reasons for the high level of impact. The excess mortality from heat waves is expected to be at least five times the current figure in 2090. Adaptation plan needs to be made on drawing up long-term adaptation measures as well as implementing short-term measures to minimize or adapt the impact of climate change.

Application of SAD Curves in Assessing Climate-change Impacts on Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Extreme Drought Events (극한가뭄의 시공간적 특성에 대한 기후변화의 영향을 평가하기 위한 SAD 곡선의 적용)

  • Kim, Hosung;Park, Jinhyeog;Yoon, Jaeyoung;Kim, Sangdan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.6B
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    • pp.561-569
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    • 2010
  • In this study, the impact of climate change on extreme drought events is investigated by comparing drought severity-area-duration curves under present and future climate. The depth-area-duration analysis for characterizing an extreme precipitation event provides a basis for analysing drought events when storm depth is replaced by an appropriate measure of drought severity. In our climate-change impact experiments, the future monthly precipitation time series is based on a KMA regional climate model which has a $27km{\times}27km$ spatial resolution, and the drought severity is computed using the standardized precipitation index. As a result, agricultural drought risk is likely to increase especially in short duration, while hydrologic drought risk will greatly increase in all durations. Such results indicate that a climate change vulnerability assessment for present water resources supply system is urgent.

An Uncertainty Assessment of AOGCM and Future Projection over East Asia (동아시아 지역의 AOGCM 불확실성 평가 및 미래기후전망)

  • Kim, Min-Ji;Shin, Jin-Ho;Lee, Hyo-Shin;Kwon, Won-Tae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.507-524
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, future climate changes over East Asia($20^{\circ}{\sim}50^{\circ}N$, $100^{\circ}{\sim}150^{\circ}E$) are projected by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B and A2 scenarios. Before projection future climate, model performance is assessed by the $20^{th}$ Century (20C3M) experiment with bias, root Mean Square Error (RMSE), ratio of standard deviation, Taylor diagram analysis. The result of examination of the seasonal uncertainty of T2m and PCP shows that cold bias, lowered than that of observation, of T2m and wet bias, larger than that of observation, of PCP are found over East Asia. The largest wet bias is found in winter and the largest cold bias is found in summer. The RMSE of temperature in the annual mean increases and this trend happens in winter, too. That is, higher resolution model shows generally better performances in simulation T2m and PCP. Based on IPCC SRES scenarios, East Asia will experience warmer and wetter climate in the coming $21^{st}$ century. It is predict the T2m increase in East Asia is larger than global mean temperature. As the latitude goes high, the warming over the continents of East Asia showed much more increase than that over the ocean. An enhanced land-sea contrast is proposed as a possible mechanism of the intensified Asian summer monsoon. But, the inter-model variability in PCP changes is large.

Development of a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Analysis Tool: Based on the Vulnerability Assessment of Forest Fires in Chungcheongnam-do (기후변화 취약성 평가 분석도구 개발에 관한 연구: 충남지역 산불 취약성을 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Soo Hyang;Lee, Sang Sin
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.275-285
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    • 2017
  • Chungnam region has established and executed the 2nd Climate Change Adaptation Initiative Execution Plan (2017~2021) based on the Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth. The Execution Plan is established based on the results of climate change vulnerability assessment using the CCGIS, LCCGIS, and VESTAP analysis tools. However, the previously developed climate change vulnerability assessment tools (CCGIS, LCCGIS, VESTAP) cannot reflect the local records and the items and indices of new assessment. Therefore, this study developed a prototype of climate change vulnerability assessment analysis tool that, unlike the previous analysis tools, designs the items and indices considering the local characteristics and allows analysis of grid units. The prototype was used to simulate the vulnerability to forest fires of eight cities and seven towns in Chungcheongnam-do Province in the 2010s, 2020s, and 2050s based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 8.5 Scenario provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Based on the analysis, Chungcheongnam-do Province's vulnerability to forest fires in the 2010s was highest in Seocheon-gun (0.201), followed by Gyeryong-si (0.173) and Buyeo-gun (0.173) and the future prospects in the 2050s was highest in Seocheon-gun (0.179), followed by Gyeryong-si (0.169) and Buyeo-gun (0.154). The area with highest vulnerability to forest fires in Chungcheongnam-do Province was Biin-myeon, Seocheon-gun and the area may become most vulnerable was Pangyo-myeon, Seocheon-gun. The prototype and the results of analysis may be used to establish the directions and strategies in regards to the vulnerability to wild fires to secure each local government's 2nd execution plan and attainability.

Evaluation of climate change on the rice productivity in South Korea using crop growth simulation model

  • Lee, Chung-Kuen;Kim, JunHwan;Shon, Jiyoung;Yang, Won-Ha
    • Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.16-18
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    • 2011
  • Evaluation of climate change on the rice productivity was conducted using crop growth simulation model, where Odae, Hwaseong, Ilpum were used as a representative cultivar of early, medium, and medium-late rice maturity type, respectively, and climate change scenario 'A1B' was applied to weather data for future climate change at 57sites. When cropping season was fixed, rice yield decreased by 4~35% as climate change which was caused by poor filled grain ratio with high temperature and low irradiation during grain-filling. When cropping season was changed, rice yield decreased by only 0~5% as climate change which was caused poor filled grain ratio with low irradiation during grain-filling period. However, this irradiation decline was less than when cropping season was fixed. Therefore, we need to develop rice cultivars resistant to low irradiation which can maintain high filled grain ratio under poor irradiation condition, and late maturity rice cultivars whose growing period is longer than the present medium-late maturity type.

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