• 경영과학
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.59-75
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• 2016

The domestic simple payment service was not activated yet compared to foreign countries and there are many things to complement in the legal, institutional, and technical aspects. The future image of the domestic electronic payment propulsion was considered by the scenario planning focusing on the simple payment. Total 6 future scenarios were drawn through the scenario planning, and 3 major strategy directions for attaining the preferred future scenario were drawn. This study drew a meaningful scenario through various analyses and industry specialist questionnaire about the future of the simple payment service which will be a crucial change of the domestic electronic payment under the uncertain future situation, and suggested an implication for the government and every interested party who provides the industrial service to prepare for the future.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제53권6호
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• pp.75-84
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of climate and land use changes in a rural small watershed. HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, ver.3) A2 scenario and LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station - Weather Generator) were used to generate future climatic data. Future land use data were also generated by the CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov) method. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate hydrologic impacts. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated with stream flow measured at the Baran watershed in Korea. The SWAT model simulation results agreed well with observed values during the calibration and validation periods. In this study, hydrologic impacts were analyzed according to three scenarios: future climate change (Scenario I), future land use change (Scenario II), and both future climate and land use changes (Scenario III). For Scenario I, the comparison results between a 30-year baseline period (1997~2004) and a future 30-year period (2011~2040) indicated that the total runoff, surface runoff, lateral subsurface runoff, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration increased as precipitation and temperature for the future 30-year period increased. The monthly variation analysis results showed that the monthly runoff for all months except September increased compared to the baseline period. For Scenario II, both the total and surface runoff increased as the built-up area, including the impervious surface, increased, while the groundwater discharge and evapotranspiration decreased. The monthly variation analysis results indicated that the total runoff increased in the summer season, when the precipitation was concentrated. In Scenario III, the results showed a similar trend to that of Scenario II. The monthly runoff for all months except October increased compared to the baseline period.

• 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.71-85
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• 2014

This study proposes the future strategy of semiconductor companies corresponding to the growth of cloud computing. Cloud computing is the delivery of IT resources such as hardware and software as a service rather than a product, and it is expected to significantly change the IT market. By employing the scenario planning method, this study develops a total of eight scenario cases, and presents the three possible scenarios including the best market, the worst market, and the neutral market scenario. This study suggests the future strategy of semiconductor companies based on the best market scenario (increasing firms' IT expenditure, increasing the complexity and performance of devices, the frequent replacement of devices). The suggested future strategy of semiconductor includes that the semiconductor companies need to strengthen their price competitiveness, secure the next generation technologies, and develop the better capability for market prediction with the growth of cloud computing. This study will help semiconductor companies set up the strategy direction of technology development, and understand the connections between cloud computing and the memory semiconductor industry. This study has practical implications for semiconductor industry to prepare for the future of cloud computing.

• 경영과학
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• 제28권3호
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• pp.143-159
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• 2011

Recently, the level of uncertainty in R&D investment for an enterprise has increased due to technological development and industrial changes. Accordingly it is necessary for an enterprise to forecast the future or foresight the future technologies. But, the fact that the methodology used in predicting future technology is suitable for large project makes enterprise difficult to forecast the future technologies or trends. Thus, this study seeks for available methodology for future technology foresight from enterprise standpoint. The methodology proposed in this research is based on the scenario model, especially focused on the customer needs and future society change.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제14권10호
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• pp.2171-2179
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• 2010

전세계 국가는 21세기 메가 트렌드인 기술 융합(Technology Convergence) 추세에 발 맞춰 정보통신(IT)분야 미래비전 및 전략수립에 몰두하고 있다. 그리고, 자국의 국부 증대 및 신산업 창출을 위해 WWRF (Wireless World Research Forum), AmI (Ambient Intelligence), and mITF (mobile IT Forum)등의 공학적 시나리오를 기반으로 한 연구를 하고 있다. 하지만 국내의 경우 비전연구 및 전략수립에 대한 연구가 초보단계로 미래전략 수립에 능동적으로 대처하기에는 미흡하다는 지적이다. 따라서, 본 논문에서는 시나리오 기법을 활용한 선진국의 공학적인 미래전략연구 사례를 분석하고, 공학적인 시나리오 비전연구 방법을 제시한다.

• 경영과학
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.129-147
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• 2004

Scenario analysis for strategic planning, unlike most forecasting methods, provides a qualitative, contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future. It normally tries to identify a set of possible futures, each of whose occurrence is plausible but not assured. In this paper, we propose the use of Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) approach for scenario generation about the future of Korean IT environments. In this analysis, we classified IT environments into technical, social, legislative, and economic factor. And various variables and events were defined in each factor. From the survey collected from IT related experts, we acquire probability of occurrence and compatibility estimates of every possible pairs of events as input. Then 2 phase analysis is used in order to choice events with high probability of occurrence and generate scenario. Finally, after CIA using Monte Carlo simulation, a detail scenario for 2010 was developed. These scenario drawn from the CIA approach is a result considered by cross impacts of various events.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제46권8호
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• pp.833-842
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• 2013

분위사상법(QM, Quantile Mapping)은GCM(Global Climate Model) 자료의 계통적 오차를 보정하여 보다 신뢰성 높은 자료로 재생성하기 위해 활용되고 있다. 이 기법은 사상(mapping)시키려는 대상(object) 자료의 통계분포모수가 정상적(stationarity)이라는 가정 하에 대상 자료의 누적확률분포(CDF, Cumulative Distribution Function)를 목표(target) CDF에 통계적으로 투영시키는 것이 일반적이다. 따라서 GCM에서 제공되는 미래 기후시나리오의 강우시계열과 같이 비정상성(non-stationarity)을 갖는 장기 시계열자료에 대한 적용에는 문제점을 보이고 있다. 본 연구에서는 비정상성을 갖는 장기시계열자료의 오차보정을 위해 통계분포모수에 경향성을 부여하는 비정상성 분위사상법(NSQM, Nonstationary Quantile Mapping)을 적용하였다. NSQM 적용을 위한 확률분포로 수문분야에서 광범위하게 쓰이고 있는Gamma 분포를 선정하였으며, 대상 시나리오는 CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis)에서 제공하고 있는 CGCM3.1/T63모형의 20C3M(reference scenario)과 SRES A2 시나리오(projection scenario)를 활용하였다. 한강유역 내 관측기간이 충분한 10개의 지상관측소로부터 강우량을 수집하였다. 또한 6월과 10월사이에 연 강수량의 65% 이상이 집중되는 한반도의 계절성을 반영하기 위해 홍수기(6~10월)와 비홍수기(11~5월)를 구분하였고, 기준기간(Baseline)은 1973~2000년, 전망기간(Projection)은 2011~2100년으로 구분하였다. 다양한 목표분포의 설정을 통하여 NSQM의 적용성을 평가하고자 하였으며, 전망기간은 FF시나리오(Foreseeable Future Scenario, 2011~2040년), MF시나리오(Mid-term Future Scenario, 2041~2070년), LF시나리오(Long-term Future Scenario, 2071~2100년)의 3개의 구간으로 설정하여 기준기간과 전망기간의 연평균 강우량에 대한 경향성분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과NSQM이 FF시나리오에서 330.1mm(25.2%), MF시나리오에서 564.5mm(43.1%), LF시나리오에서 634.3mm(48.5%)로 증가하는 전망결과를 나타내고 있었다. 정상성기법을 적용한 결과, 전망기간 중 전체적으로는 동일한 평균값을 갖는 목표통계모수를 사용한다고 하여도, 전망전반부에서 과다하고, 후반부에서 오히려 과소한 전망을 보여주고 있었다. 이러한 결과는 비정상성기법을 사용함으로써 상당부분 개선될 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.187-194
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• 2019

본 연구는 산업정책 및 기업전략의 개발 및 적용에 활용될 수 있는 브레인 임플란트 산업의 장기 미래 시나리오 모델개발 및 시나리오별 대응전략을 개발하는 것을 연구의 목적으로 삼았다. 뇌과학 산업은 미래 핵심 산업으로 그 가능성에 대하여서는 많은 논의가 있었지만 구체적인 산업육성정책이나 기업전략 분야는 연구가 매우 부족한 실정이다. 이는 이 분야가 아직 산업육성정책이나 기업전략을 작성하기에 필요한 정보가 축적되지 못하였기 때문이다. 이러한 한계를 극복하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 뇌과학산업의 핵심영역으로 많은 불확실성이 존재하는 브레인 임플란트 산업에 대하여 시스템 다이내믹스 모델로 미래 시나리오를 작성하고 이를 기반으로 각각의 시나리오에 적합한 전략을 제시하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 뇌과학산업 육성 정책 입안 및 개별 기업에서의 전략개발에 주요한 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 향후 글로벌 시장 상황이 어느 시나리오로 발전하는 지를 조기에 파악할 수 있는 신호에 관한 연구의 필요성이 제기된다.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.341-349
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• 2016

This study is intended to set a greenhouse gas emission scenario based on green remodeling pilot project (Annex building of Seoul Customs Office) using LEAP model, a long-term energy plan analysis model, to calculate the energy saving and greenhouse gas emission till year 2035 as well as to analyze the effect of electric power saving cost. Total 4 scenarios were made, Baseline scenario, assuming the past trend is to be maintained in the future, green remodeling scenario, reflecting actual green remodeling project of Seoul Customs Office, behavior improvement and renewable energy supply, and Total scenario. According to the analysis result, the energy demand in 2035 of Baseline scenario was 6.1% decreased from base year 2013, that of green remodeling scenario was 17.5%, that of behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario was 21.1% and that of total scenario was 27.3%. The greenhouse emission of base year 2013 was $878.2tCO_2eq$, and it was expected $826.3tCO_2eq$, approx. 5.9% reduced, in 2035 by Baseline scenario. the cumulative greenhouse gas emission saving of the analyzing period were $-26.5tCO_2eq$ by green remodeling scenario, $2.8k\;tCO_2eq$ by behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario, and $2.0k\;tCO_2eq$ by total scenario. In addition the effect of electricity saving cost through energy saving has been estimated, and it was approx. 634 million won by green remodeling scenario and appro. 726 million won by behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario. So it is analyzed that of behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario would be approx. 12.7% higher than that of green remodeling scenario.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제55권5호
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• pp.37-48
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• 2013

The objective of this study is to assess the impact of potential climate change on the hydrological components, especially on the streamflow, evapotranspiration and snowmelt, by using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for 17 Hanriver middle watersheds of South Korea. For future assessment, the SWAT model was calibrated in multiple sites using 4 years (2006-2009) and validated by using 2 years (2010-2011) daily observed data. For the model validation, the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) for streamflow were 0.30-0.75. By applying the future scenarios predicted five future time periods Baseline (1992-2011), 2040s (2021-2040), 2060s (2041-2060), 2080s (2061-2080) and 2100s (2081-2100) to SWAT model, the 17 middle watersheds hydrological components of evapotranspiration, streamflow and snowmelt were evaluated. For the future precipitation and temperature of RCP 4.5 scenario increased 41.7 mm (2100s), $+3^{\circ}C$ conditions, the future streamflow showed +32.5 % (2040s), +24.8 % (2060s), +50.5 % (2080s) and +55.0 % (2100s). For the precipitation and temperature of RCP 8.5 scenario increased 63.9 mm (2100s), $+5.8^{\circ}C$ conditions, the future streamflow showed +35.5 % (2040s), +68.9 % (2060s), +58.0 % (2080s) and +63.6 % (2100s). To determine the impact on snowmelt for Hanriver middle watersheds, snowmelt parameters of SWAT model were determined through evaluating observed streamflow data during snowmelt periods (November-April). The results showed that average SMR (snowmelt / runoff) of 17 Hanriver middle watersheds was 62.0 % (Baseline). The annual average SMR were 42.0 % (2040s), 39.8 % (2060s), 29.4 % (2080s) and 27.9 % (2100s) by applying RCP 4.5 scenario. Also, the annual average SMR by applying RCP 8.5 scenario were 40.1 % (2040s), 29.4 % (2060s), 18.3 % (2080s) and 12.7 % (2100s).