• Survey Research
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.65-90
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• 2002

The purpose of this study is to develope an appropriate method of the household projection in Korea. Given the data constraints, the headship rate method is selected. This method is known to be responsive to changes in demographic factors related to household formation. To project future headship rates, the method of net transition rates based on the average of two-census intervals was adopted for household heads ages 35 and over, while the log-linear formula was employed for those aged under 35. The future headship rate of Korean males shows a one-peak pattern with plateau, whereas that of Korean females marks a two-peak pattern. For a better projection of household in the future, one-person households should be treated more carefully, because they are mostly either young adults or the elderly whose activities of household formation and dissolution are very hard to forecast.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.5
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• pp.1-12
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• 2015

The study aimed to project inflows and demmands for the agricultural reservoir watersheds in South Korea considering a variety of regional characteristics and the uncertainty of future climate information. The study bias-corrected and spatially downscaled retrospective daily Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios using non-parametric quantile mapping method to force Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Using the historical simulation, the skills of un-calibrated SWAT model (without calibration process) was evaluated for 5 reservoir watersheds (selected as well-monitored representatives). The study then, evaluated the performance of 9 GCMs in reproducing historical upstream inflow and irrigation demand at the five representative reservoirs. Finally future inflows and demands for 58 watersheds were projected using 9 GCMs projections under the two RCP scenarios. We demonstrated that (1) un-calibrated SWAT model is likely applicable to agricultural watershed, (2) the uncertainty of future climate information from different GCMs is significant, (3) multi-model ensemble (MME) shows comparatively resonable skills in reproducing water balances over the study area. The results of projection under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario generally showed the increase of inflow by 9.4% and 10.8% and demand by 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively. More importantly, the results for different seasons and reservoirs varied considerably in the impacts of climate change.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.169-169
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• 2020

According to the IPCC analysis, severe climate changes are projected to occur in Korea as the temperature is expected to rise by 3.2 ℃, the precipitation by 15.6% and the sea level by 27cm by 2050. It is predicted that the occurrence of abnormal climate phenomena - especially those such as increase of concentrated precipitation and extreme heat in the summer season and severe drought in the winter season - that have happened in Korea in the past 30 years (1981-2010) will continuously be intensified and accelerated. As a result, the impact on and vulnerability of the water management sector is expected to be exacerbated. This research aims to predict the climate change impacts on streamflow of Daecheong Lake area of Geum River in South Korea during the summer and winter seasons, which show extreme meteorological events, and ultimately develop an integrated policy model in response. We projected and compared the streamflow changes of Daecheong Lake area of Geum River in South Korea in the near future period (2020-2040) and the far future period (2041-2060) with the reference period (1991-2010) using the HEC-HMS model. The data from a global climate model HadGEM2-AO, which is the fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean version of the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 2, and RCP scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used as inputs for the HEC-HMS model to identify the river basins where cases of extreme flooding or drought are likely to occur in the near and far future. The projections were made for the summer season (July-September) and the winter season(November-January) in order to reflect the summer monsoon and the dry winter. The results are anticipated to be used by policy makers for preparation of adaptation plans to secure water resources in the nation.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.13-29
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• 2018

This study presented evaluation procedure for selecting appropriate GCMs and downscaling method by focusing on the climate extreme indices suitable for climate change adaptation. The procedure includes six stages of processes as follows: 1) exclusion of unsuitable GCM through raw GCM analysis before bias correction; 2) calculation of the climate extreme indices and selection of downscaling method by evaluating reproducibility for the past and distortion rate for the future period; 3) selection of downscaling method based on evaluation of reproducibility of spatial correlation among weather stations; and 4) MME calculation using weight factors and evaluation of uncertainty range depending on number of GCMs. The presented procedure was applied to 60 weather stations where there are observed data for the past 30 year period on Korea Peninsula. First, 22 GCMs were selected through the evaluation of the spatio-temporal reproducibility of 29 GCMs. Between Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) and Spatial Disaggregation Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM) methods, SQM was selected based on the reproducibility of 27 climate extreme indices for the past and reproducibility evaluation of spatial correlation in precipitation and temperature. Total precipitation (prcptot) and annual 1-day maximum precipitation (rx1day), which is respectively related to water supply and floods, were selected and MME-based future projections were estimated for near-future (2010-2039), the mid-future (2040-2069), and the far-future (2070-2099) based on the weight factors by GCM. The prcptot and rx1day increased as time goes farther from the near-future to the far-future and RCP 8.5 showed a higher rate of increase in both indices compared to RCP 4.5 scenario. It was also found that use of 20 GCM out of 22 explains 80% of the overall variation in all combinations of RCP scenarios and future periods. The result of this study is an example of an application in Korea Peninsula and APCC Integrated Modeling Solution (AIMS) can be utilized in various areas and fields if users want to apply the proposed procedure directly to a target area.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.197-207
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• 2016

Large quantities of air pollutants are released into the atmosphere and hence, must be monitored and routinely assessed for their health implications. This paper proposes a stochastic technique to predict unobserved hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), especially Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), which can have negative effects on human health. The proposed approach constructs a nearest-neighbor structure by incorporating the linkage between BaP and meteorology and meteorological effects. This approach is adopted in order to predict unobserved BaP concentrations based on observed (or forecasted) meteorological conditions, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and air quality. The effects of BaP on human health are examined by characterizing the cancer risk. The efficient prediction provides useful information relating to the optimal monitoring period and projections of future BaP concentrations for both industrial and residential areas within Korea.

• Advances in Energy Research
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.65-77
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• 2017

The latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) show that mean daily temperatures will increase everywhere in the United Kingdom. This will significantly affect the thermal and energy performance of the current building stock. This study examines an institutional fully glazed building and looks into the changes in the cooling loads and thermal comfort of the occupants during the occupied hours of the non-heating period. Furthermore, it investigates the effect of relative humidity (RH) on thermal comfort. The Design Summer Year (DSY) 2003 for London Heathrow has been used as a baseline for this study and the DSY 2050s High Emissions scenario was used to examine the performance of the building under future weather conditions. Results show a 21% increase of the cooling loads between the two examined scenarios. Thermal comfort appears to be slightly improved during the months of May and September and marginally worsen during the summer months. Results of the simulation show that a relative humidity control at 40% can improve the thermal comfort for 53% of the occupied hours. A comparison of the thermal comfort performance during the hottest week of the year, shows that when the relative humidity control is applied thermal comfort performance of the 2050s is similar or better compared to the thermal comfort performance under the baseline.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.665-672
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• 2016

In this study, we examine future changes in the Hadley cell (HC) strength using CMIP5 climate change simulations. The current study is an extension of a previous study by Seo et al. that used all 30 available models. Here, we select 18-23 well-performing models based on their significant internal sensitivity of the interannual HC strength variation to the latitudinal temperature gradient variation. The model projections along with simple scaling analysis show that the inter-model variability in the HC strength change is a result of the inter-model spread in the meridional temperature gradient across the subtropics for both DJF and JJA, not by the tropopause height or gross static stability change. The HC strength is expected to weaken significantly during DJF, while little change is expected in the JJA HC strength. Compared to the calculations with all model members, selected model statistics increase the linear correlation between the changes in HC strength and meridional temperature gradient by 13~23%, confirming the robust sensitivity of the HC strength to the meridional temperature gradient. Two scaling equations for the selected models predict changes in HC strength better than all-member predictions. In particular, the prediction improvement in DJF is as high as 30%. The simple scaling relations successfully predict both the ensemble-mean changes and model-to-model variations in the HC strength for both seasons.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.157-166
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• 2012

Many models intending to explain the latitudinal gradient of increasing species diversity from the poles to the equator are presented, which are a formalisation of the species-energy hypothesis. The model predictions are consistent with patterns of increasing species number with increasing mean air or water temperatures for plants and animals. An increase in species richness is also correlated with net primary production or the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index. This implies that increased availability of resources favours increased diversity capacity. The explanatory variables included in the biodiversity prediction models represent measures of water, energy, water-energy, habitat, history/evolution and biological responses. Water variables tend to be the best predictors when the geographic scope of the data is restricted to tropical and subtropical areas, whereas water-energy variables dominate when colder areas are included. In major models, about 20-35% of species in the various global regions (European, Africa, etc.) will disappear from each grid cell by 2050 and >50% could be vulnerable or threatened by 2080. This study provides good explanations for predictive models and future changes in biodiversity depending on various scenarios.

• Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.123-131
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• 2004

The hospitals built In the seventies and eighties have gone through many different extensions and renovations. However, as there had been no prior projections of the future extensions, irrational processes in terms of interdepartmental functional relocations and space availability have recurred. As well, areas and departments are located in several wings, which bring about a decrease in interdepartmental functional linkage, causing a lot of confusion and trouble in hospital management. Through this research we acquire concluding remarks. 1) To restore functional linkage in the whole hospital, strategy of interdepartmental relocation with the clinic-in-the clinic concept is the measure to minimize the problems of the increase in interdepartmental functional linkage since the clinic-in-the clinic concepts minimize circulation and maximizes efficiency of hospital management by making all the dispersed wings as professional as possible. 2) The measure of smooth circulation in order to resolve the problems of patients' difficulty in identifying directions and in decrease in staff's work performance, which arises from the extensions without considering the traffic systems of the whole hospital involves introduction of linear circulation systems in which connections between departments or areas can be made centering main axes of circulation. It is also a responsive measure to enhance the functional linkage between buildings and efficiency of patient's ease in identification of directions.

• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.170-174
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• 2005

It is projected that, in a near future, our living environment will transform into the ubiquitous computing environment. Many scenarios and projections of how humans will actually interact with such an environment to receive various services have been made, but most of them remain to be untested ideas on paper without implementation. In this paper, we propose to use P-VoT, a component based interactive authoring toolkit for virtual environments, to quickly build a virtual ubiquitous computing environment.