• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future Prediction

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A Study on Macroscopic Future maintenance Investment Scale for National SOC Infrastructure (국가 사회기반시설물에 대한 거시적 관점의 미래 유지보수 투자규모에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Hyun;Jun, Tae-Hyun;Kim, Ji-Won;Park, Ki-Tae;Kim, Yongsoo
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2017
  • It is important to estimate the future maintenance budget of all SOC infrastructure at the national strategic level. In this study, Based on a currently available statistics data, we predicted future maintenance investment for all SOC infrastructure in Korea. We have studied the applicable prediction models, and we developed the prediction models that can calculated the future maintenance cost by a real expenditure date. The subjects of facilities are bridges, tunnels, pavements, harbors, dams, airports, water supply, rivers and port. As a result of total estimated cost, eight types of SOC infrastructures are about 23 trillion won for the next 10years, and the most expensive facilities are road pavements and bridges.

Comparative Study of the Supervised Learning Model for Rate of Penetration Prediction Using Drilling Efficiency Parameters (시추효율매개변수를 이용한 굴진율 예측 지도학습 모델 비교 연구)

  • Han, Dong-Kwon;Sung, Yu-Jeong;Yang, Yun-Jeong;Kwon, Sun-Il
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.25 no.8
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    • pp.1032-1038
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    • 2021
  • Rate of penetration(ROP) is one of the important variables for maximizing the drilling performance. In order to maximize drilling efficiency, it is necessary to increase the drilling speed, and real-time ROP prediction is important so that the driller can identify problems during drilling. The ROP has a high correlation with the drillstring rotational speed, weight on bit, and flow rate. In this paper, the ROP was predicted using a data-driven supervised learning model trained from the drilling efficiency parameters. As a result of comparison through the performance evaluation metrics of the regression model, the root mean square error(RMSE) of the RF model was 4.20 and the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) was 9.08%, confirming the best predictive performance. The proposed method can be used as a base model for ROP prediction when constructing a real-time drilling operation guide system.

Data-Based Model Approach to Predict Internal Air Temperature in a Mechanically-Ventilated Broiler House (데이터 기반 모델에 의한 강제환기식 육계사 내 기온 변화 예측)

  • Choi, Lak-yeong;Chae, Yeonghyun;Lee, Se-yeon;Park, Jinseon;Hong, Se-woon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.64 no.5
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    • pp.27-39
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    • 2022
  • The smart farm is recognized as a solution for future farmers having positive effects on the sustainability of the poultry industry. Intelligent microclimate control can be a key technology for broiler production which is extremely vulnerable to abnormal indoor air temperatures. Furthermore, better control of indoor microclimate can be achieved by accurate prediction of indoor air temperature. This study developed predictive models for internal air temperature in a mechanically-ventilated broiler house based on the data measured during three rearing periods, which were different in seasonal climate and ventilation operation. Three machine learning models and a mechanistic model based on thermal energy balance were used for the prediction. The results indicated that the all models gave good predictions for 1-minute future air temperature showing the coefficient of determination greater than 0.99 and the root-mean-square-error smaller than 0.306℃. However, for 1-hour future air temperature, only the mechanistic model showed good accuracy with the coefficient of determination of 0.934 and the root-mean-square-error of 0.841℃. Since the mechanistic model was based on the mathematical descriptions of the heat transfer processes that occurred in the broiler house, it showed better prediction performances compared to the black-box machine learning models. Therefore, it was proven to be useful for intelligent microclimate control which would be developed in future studies.

A Study on Improving Prediction Accuracy by Modeling Multiple Similar Time Series (다중 유사 시계열 모델링 방법을 통한 예측정확도 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Young-Hee;Lee, Gye-Sung
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.137-143
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    • 2010
  • A method for improving prediction accuracy through processing time series data has been studied in this research. We have designed techniques to model multiple similar time series data and avoided the shortcomings of single prediction model. We predicted the future changes by effective rules derived from these models. The methods for testing prediction accuracy consists of three types: fixed interval, sliding, and cumulative method. Among the three, cumulative method produced the highest accuracy.

A Real-Time Generator Swing Prediction using Phasor Measurement Units (PMU를 이용한 실시간 전기 동요 예측)

  • Cho, Ki-Seon;Kim, Hoi-Cheol;Lee, Ki-Song;Shin, Joong-Rin
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2001.05a
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    • pp.92-94
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    • 2001
  • This paper investigated the real-time generator swing prediction by some researchers. And the first swing stability assessment based on EAC(Equal-Area Criterion) by using phasor measurement unit is proposed. Also we proposed the multi-swing prediction techniques, which is to estimate system parameters by using least square method / extrapolation with phasor measurement units. And the multi-swing prediction is performed with the estimated parameters. Future works are necessary to verify the proposed approaches in this paper.

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Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Prediction of the Strength Properties of CSG Materials

  • Lim, Jeongyeul;Kim, Kiyoung;Moon, Hongduk;Jin, Guangri
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2018
  • The number of researches on the mechanical properties of cemented sand and gravel (CSG) materials and the application of the CSG Dam has been increased. In order to explain the technical scheme of strength prediction model about the artificial neural network, we obtained the sample data by orthogonal test using the PVA (Polyvinyl alcohol) fiber, different amount of cementing materials and age, and established the efficient evaluation and prediction system. Combined with the analysis about the importance of influence factors, the prediction accuracy was above 95%. This provides the scientific theory for the further application of CSG, and will also be the foundation to apply the artificial neural network theory further in water conservancy project for the future.

PREDICTION OF TOKAI EARTHQUAKE DISASTER DAMAGE IN HAMAMATSU CITY AND THE COMPARISON TO THE PREDICTION REPORT OF SHIZUOKA PREFECTURE GOVERNMENT USING GIS

  • Iwasaki, Kazutaka;Komiyaka, Tsukasa
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2007.10a
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    • pp.321-324
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    • 2007
  • It is commonly believed that a gigantic earthquake (Tokai Earthquake) could occur in Shizuoka Prefecture in the near future. The Shizuoka Prefecture Government made the prediction report of Tokai Earthquake disaster damage. But this report does not pay attention to the ground conditions. The authors make a prediction map using GIS of Tokai Earthquake disaster damage in Asada-cho and Hirosawa Ni-chome in the central Hamamatsu City and revealed the location of dangerous houses and dangerous points in road networks in each town. These information could be useful when people try to find escape routes in an earthquake.

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Application Study on the Outdoor Air Temperature Prediction Control for Continuous Floor Heating System (연속바닥난방시스템에 대한 외기예측제어적용 연구)

  • 태춘섭;조성환;이충구
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.836-844
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    • 2001
  • For the radiant floor heating system, the possibility of suboptimal prediction control was investigated by computer simulation and experiment. For this study, TRANSYS program was used and an experimental facility consisting of two rooms (3$\times$4.4$\times$2.8m) was built. The facility enabled simultaneous comparison of two different control strategies which implemented in a separate room. Results showed that outdoor air temperature prediction control was superior to the conventional outdoor air temperature compensation control for radiant floor heating system. However, more research for fine prediction of outside air temperature was required in the future.

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The Prediction Method with accumulated LOTTO numbers (당첨 로또 번호의 누적 데이터를 활용한 예측 방안)

  • Kim, Do-Goan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.131-133
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    • 2017
  • To predict the future, the accumulated data can be fundamental basic. While many prediction methods based on contingency theory have been used, the prediction of LOTTO number can not be based on the contingency theory. But, this research attempts to suggest the method to predict LOTTO numbers through using the change of the prediction capability on accumulated data.

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Proposal of An Artificial Intelligence based Temperature Prediction Algorithm for Efficient Agricultural Activities -Focusing on Gyeonggi-do Farm House-

  • Jang, Eun-Jin;Shin, Seung-Jung
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.104-109
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    • 2021
  • In the aftermath of the global pandemic that started in 2019, there have been many changes in the import/export and supply/demand process of agricultural products in each country. Amid these changes, the necessity and importance of each country's food self-sufficiency rate is increasing. There are several conditions that must accompany efficient agricultural activities, but among them, temperature is by far one of the most important conditions. For this reason, the need for high-accuracy climate data for stable agricultural activities is increasing, and various studies on climate prediction are being conducted in Korea, but data that can visually confirm climate prediction data for farmers are insufficient. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an artificial intelligence-based temperature prediction algorithm that can predict future temperature information by collecting and analyzing temperature data of farms in Gyeonggi-do in Korea for the last 10 years. If this algorithm is used, it is expected that it can be used as an auxiliary data for agricultural activities.