• 제목/요약/키워드: Future Prediction

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A Study on the Probabilistic Prediction of Typhoons Approaching the Korean-Peninsula (한반도에 대한 태풍내습확률 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jun-Il;Yu, Hui-Jeong;Lee, Bae-Ho
    • Water for future
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.273-279
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    • 1984
  • An attempt is made to present a method of prediction for typhoons apporaching the Korean-peninsula. The method is based upon the Bayesian theorem to improve the observed (prior) probabilities of typhoons approaching the Korean sea area incorporating conditional probability. A total of 248 typhoons is collected and analyzed to establish prior probability and conditional probability according to the defined procedure. The typhoons used are those which encompassed the western Pacific area to which the Korean-peninsula is subjected. The results of examplary computations suggest that the presented method is promising for predicting approaching typhoons.

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A Fast Inter-Domain Network-based IP Mobility Scheme for Urban Areas

  • Taghizadeh, Alireza;Wan, Tat-Chee;Budiarto, Rahmat
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.645-655
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    • 2014
  • Latency, an identified element of Internet protocol (IP) mobility protocol execution, can reduce handover performance in mobile networks. Although the performance can be improved by applying an effective network-based IP mobility scheme in place of the traditional host-based alternatives, the existing inter-domain extensions of network-based IP mobility continue to suffer from an extended handover latency. This paper proposes a new inter-domain network-based IP mobility scheme based on node movement prediction. The proposed scheme accelerates the handover by preparing the future domain of the mobile node in a proactive manner. Analytical and simulation-based evaluations confirm improved performance of the proposed scheme in terms of handover latency and packet loss compared with existing schemes.

Typhoon Simulation with GME Model (GME 모델을 이용한 태풍 모의)

  • Oh, Jai-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Visualization
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.9-13
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    • 2007
  • Typhoon simulation based on dynamical forecasting results is demonstrated by utilizing geodesic model GME (operational global numerical weather prediction model of German Weather Service). It is based on uniform icosahedral-hexagonal grid. The GME gridpoint approach avoids the disadvantages of spectral technique as well as the pole problem in latitude-longitude grids and provides a data structure extremely well suited to high efficiency on distributed memory parallel computers. In this study we made an attempt to simulate typhoon 'NARI' that passed over the Korean Peninsula in 2007. GME has attributes of numerical weather prediction model and its high resolution can provide details on fine scale. High resolution of GME can play key role in the study of severe weather phenomenon such as typhoons. Simulation of future typhoon that is assumed to occur under the global warming situation shows that the life time of that typhoon will last for a longer time and the intensity will be extremely stronger.

Small Watershed Peak Flow Prediction

  • Jun, Byong-Ho;Oh, Kyoung-Doo;Park, Young-Ha
    • Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
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    • v.2
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 1991
  • To estimate the peak discharge from the small rural watersheds, 53 storm events of seven small watersheds from 1972 to 1989 were selected and were analyzed by the multiple regression technique. The peak values by the new prediction method developed in this study were also compared to the real data of Banwol Basins and the estimated peaks of the several watersheds which were analyzed by the Korean engineering companies. These values were also compared to the results from the other method, i.e. the Rational Method, the Kajiyama Method, the Nakayasu Unit Hydrograph companies. Through Method, the Area Routing Method, etc., which are favored by the Korean engineering companies. Through these comparisons, it is proved that the proposed method may be used for day-to-day use without any problem. However, there should be some modifications and improvements as more data are available in the future.

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담수호 저층배수시설 방류구 위치선정을 위한 저층방류수 해양수중 혼합특성해석

  • Park, Yeong-Wook;Khu, Bon-Chung;Kwun, Soon-Kuk
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.272-277
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    • 2005
  • Initial mixing characteristics in near field regions were analyzed by FLOW-3D, for analyzing mixing behavior of submerged discharge from freshwater lake in sea water. FLOW-3D model was applied to the region near Geum-ho dike for its verification. Simulation results from FLOW-3D were compared to the observed data for the verification periods. FLOW-3D showed resonable prediction results compared to the observed data, except underestimation in area near outfall. Particularly, FLOW-3D showed a good prediction for movement of buoyancy jets. In addition, FLOW-3D model was applied to the region near Saemangeum dike, which is to be constructed in near future. It was expected that the results of model application to Saemangeum area could provide substantial information in planning submerged discharge facilities. Based on the model applications to Saemangeum area, it was recommended that outfall should be located to the distance which gave an enough depth of outfall from water surface.

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Development of A Water Quality Management Information System in Reservoirs Using a Web based Water Quality Prediction Model and an Expert System (웹기반 수질예측모델과 전문가시스템을 이용한 저수지 수질관리 정보시스템 개발)

  • Lee, Ju-Seung;Goh, Hong-Seok;Goh, Nam-Yuoung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.527-533
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    • 2005
  • Recently reservoir is polluted by concentrative development of urbanization. Accordingly, the prediction of water quality has import meaning for protecting of water quality pollution. This study was carried out to predict water quality of Gyung Cheon reservoir by WASP5. We have established an integrated system on the basis of web, which predicts the future quality of water through water quality model, WASP5 based on information of water environment in a reservoir for agriculture, uniting expert system which supports the determination to set up measures for improving the quality of water to cope with the result.

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Modeling and Prediction of Yarn Density Profiles Using Neural Networks (인공 신경망을 이용한 방적사 굵기 신호의 모델링)

  • Kim, Joo-Yong
    • Textile Coloration and Finishing
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.7-11
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    • 2007
  • A prediction model for yarn density profile was developed using the neural network methodology. The neural network model developed traces mass densities of a yarn within a section and predicts the mass profiles of the next yarn segment yet to be measured. The model does not require an assumption on the existence of a relationship between the past and future data sets. Four high-draft yarns made under different processing conditions were employed in order to test the performance of the model developed. It was shown that the model could predict the yarn density profiles without a significant error.

Development of the Inflow Temperature Regression Model for the Thermal Stratification Analysis in Yongdam Reservoir (용담호 수온성층해석을 위한 유입수온 회귀분석 모형 개발)

  • Ahn, Ki Hong;Kim, Seon Joo;Seo, Dong Il
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.435-442
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    • 2011
  • In this study, a regression model was developed for prediction of inflow temperature to support an effective thermal stratification simulation of Yongdam Reservoir, using the relationship between gaged inflow temperature and air temperature. The effect of reproductability for thermal stratification was evaluated using EFDC model by gaged vertical profile data of water temperature(from June to December in 2005) and ex-developed regression models. Therefore, in the development process, the coefficient of correlation and determination are 0.96 and 0.922, respectively. Moreover, the developed model showed good performance in reproducing the reservoir thermal stratification. Results of this research can be a role to provide a base for building of prediction model for water quality management in near future.

A Fundamental Study on Development Hydrothermal Temperature Measuring Tools Using Titanium (티타늄 금속을 활용한 수열온도 예측용 간이측정장치 개발에 관한 기초적 연구)

  • Sim, Sang-Rak;Ryu, Dong-Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.199-200
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    • 2016
  • Accurate fire diagnoses are needed to properly repair and strengthen buildings affected by fire. The current diagnosis method of fire takes time and is ineffective. In previous research, Melting point temperature of each sequence to grasp easily the temperature of the concrete up to 200 ~ 600 ℃ was to estimate the temperature by utilizing a different sequence representing material.But In the form of conventional hydrothermal temperature prediction simple measuring device, it is difficult in the future buried in application to the construction site, there is a problem of damage when concrete pouring, and only the extension of life measured by the zinc has a problem does not distinguish between 400 ℃ and 500 ℃. Therefore this study is conducted by utilizing a titanium metal changes the color depending on the temperature to check for the applicability of the simple apparatus for measuring the temperature prediction sequence.

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Design and Implementation of a Knowledge - Based Wage Rate Prediction System (지식기반 임금예측시스템 설계와 구축사례)

  • Jo, Jae-Hui
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.3-31
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    • 1994
  • Potential employers considering locations for production or service facilities typically equire detailed advance knowledge of the wages they will be expected to offer for workers in various occupational categories. The State of Missouri s Department of Labor and Industrial Relations is often contacted by organizations requesting such information. The current wage rate survey approach, initiated in 1988, allows the Department to predict an appropriate wage rate for a given occupation in certain counties, adjusted for changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, both Department employees and firms have indicated that improved prediction responsiveness and accuracy are desirable. A major deficiency of the current approach is its inability to predict wages for unsurveyed counties. This paper describes a knowledge-based system (KBS), currently in the prototype testing stage, that is expected to supplement the wage rate survey in the near future.

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