• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future Prediction

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Prediction of Estimated Sales Amount through New Open of Department Store (대형백화점의 신규출점에 따른 예상매출액 추정)

  • Park, Chul-ju;Ko, Youn-bae;Youn, Myoung-kil;Kim, Won-kyum
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.5-20
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    • 2006
  • Retail is called location business because it is one of the most important factors to estimate management of stores for retailers who are going to sell products directly to customers. Retailers' management achievements are shown in sale in general. Therefore, retailers tend to focus on ways to increase the numbers of customers in order to raise sales. First of all, in this research, I am going to examine the most fundamental models such as Reilly's retail gravitation, converse model, huff probability model and multiful losit model in selecting stores. Secondly, I am going to provide the process and analyzing ways to predict estimated sales amount with the previous theory model. Also I am going to predict estimated sales amount of the department store L which is located in D metorpolitan city. Lastly, I am going to argue about the problem of this research and the next research subject. Our main goal is to provide ways to complement and inspect sales estimation models, which can be used in fields after taking characters of high class structure of Korea into consideration on the base of previous researches. According to the result of the research, my conclusion is that if the process of analysis and changing factors are complemented, revise model, which can reflect reality of Korea, will be provided. Therefore, in the future study, we have to build up theory models to suit for our retail market through critic reviews about the existing high class structure of Korea.

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A Study of Inter-Korean Cooperation in Science and Technology (남북한 과학기술협력에 대한 연구: 통합적 시각에서)

  • Kwon Ki-Seok
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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    • v.3 no.2 s.6
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    • pp.29-60
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    • 2003
  • Inter-Korean Cooperation in Science and Technology will contribute to building the trust between S.K and N.K as a leading factor and cut down the cost of unification by diminishing the technology lag and the gap of economic level. This study has shown that we can increase the productivity of unified Korea Innovation system if we systematically analyse the present condition of the Inter-Korean Cooperation and promote Inter-Korean Cooperation. In this study, the author analyses the present condition of the Inter-Korean Cooperation with integrated framework of three aspects to clear up the policy of Inter-Korean Cooperation. First, in the national aspect, we make use of the notion of international cooperation and multilateral mechanism of an international organization. Thereafter, we make out the alternatives in the aspects of international relationship and legal and institutional view Second, in the unification aspect, we consider the Inter-Korean Cooperation by the notion of national innovation system. Thereafter, we make out the alternative in the aspect of a phase-dependent approach. Finally, in technology aspect, we consider the Inter-Korean Cooperation by the notion of technology gap, the framework of technology transfer, and technology dependency theory. As a conclusion, through this study, the author have tried to integrate the various theoretical backgrounds. As a result, the author could analyse the present condition of ter-Korean Cooperation in Science and Technology and team a good lesson from it; Therefore, we can use it as a means of evaluation on a cooperation program and prediction for the future status of cooperation.

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Trend Analysis using Topic Modeling for Simulation Studies (토픽 모델링을 이용한 시뮬레이션 연구 동향 분석)

  • Na, Sang-Tae;Kim, Ja-Hee;Jung, Min-Ho;Ahn, Joo-Eon
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2016
  • The recent diversification in terms of the scope and techniques used for simulations has highlighted the importance of analyzing state of the art trends and applying these for educational and study purposes. While qualitative methods such as literature research or experts' assessments have previously been used, such methods are in fact likely to reflect the subjective viewpoint of experts, and to involve too much time and money for the results obtained. For the purpose of an objective analysis, a quantitative analysis that included the examination of topics found in domestic academic journal articles was conducted in the present study. In this regard, simulation was found to be most actively used domestically in the electrical and electronic fields. In addition, simulation was also found to be employed for the purpose of education and entertainment in the social sciences. The results of this study are expected to help to facilitate the prediction of the direction of the development of not only the Korea Society for Simulation, but also domestic simulation studies. This study also raises the possibility of applying text mining to trend analysis, and proves that it can be a useful method for deriving future key topics and helping experts' decisions regarding quantitative data.

A Study on the Build of Equipment Predictive Maintenance Solutions Based on On-device Edge Computer

  • Lee, Yong-Hwan;Suh, Jin-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.165-172
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    • 2020
  • In this paper we propose an uses on-device-based edge computing technology and big data analysis methods through the use of on-device-based edge computing technology and analysis of big data, which are distributed computing paradigms that introduce computations and storage devices where necessary to solve problems such as transmission delays that occur when data is transmitted to central centers and processed in current general smart factories. However, even if edge computing-based technology is applied in practice, the increase in devices on the network edge will result in large amounts of data being transferred to the data center, resulting in the network band reaching its limits, which, despite the improvement of network technology, does not guarantee acceptable transfer speeds and response times, which are critical requirements for many applications. It provides the basis for developing into an AI-based facility prediction conservation analysis tool that can apply deep learning suitable for big data in the future by supporting intelligent facility management that can support productivity growth through research that can be applied to the field of facility preservation and smart factory industry with integrated hardware technology that can accommodate these requirements and factory management and control technology.

A study of applying soil moisture for improving false alarm rates in monitoring landslides (산사태 모니터링 오탐지율 개선을 위한 토양수분자료 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Seungcheol;Jeong, Jaehwan;Choi, Minha;Yoon, Hongsik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1205-1214
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    • 2021
  • Precipitation is one of a major causes of landslides by rising of pore water pressure, which leads to fluctuations of soil strength and stress. For this reason, precipitation is the most frequently used to determine the landslide thresholds. However, using only precipitation has limitations in predicting and estimating slope stability quantitatively for reducing false alarm events. On the other hand, Soil Moisture (SM) has been used for calculating slope stability in many studies since it is directly related to pore water pressure than precipitation. Therefore, this study attempted to evaluate the appropriateness of applying soil moisture in determining the landslide threshold. First, the reactivity of soil saturation level to precipitation was identified through time-series analysis. The precipitation threshold was calculated using daily precipitation (Pdaily) and the Antecedent Precipitation Index (API), and the hydrological threshold was calculated using daily precipitation and soil saturation level. Using a contingency table, these two thresholds were assessed qualitatively. In results, compared to Pdaily only threshold, Goesan showed an improvement of 75% (Pdaily + API) and 42% (Pdaily + SM) and Changsu showed an improvement of 33% (Pdaily + API) and 44% (Pdaily + SM), respectively. Both API and SM effectively enhanced the Critical Success Index (CSI) and reduced the False Alarm Rate (FAR). In the future, studies such as calculating rainfall intensity required to cause/trigger landslides through soil saturation level or estimating rainfall resistance according to the soil saturation level are expected to contribute to improving landslide prediction accuracy.

Classification of Soil Creep Hazard Class Using Machine Learning (기계학습기법을 이용한 땅밀림 위험등급 분류)

  • Lee, Gi Ha;Le, Xuan-Hien;Yeon, Min Ho;Seo, Jun Pyo;Lee, Chang Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2021
  • In this study, classification models were built using machine learning techniques that can classify the soil creep risk into three classes from A to C (A: risk, B: moderate, C: good). A total of six machine learning techniques were used: K-Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting and then their classification accuracy was analyzed using the nationwide soil creep field survey data in 2019 and 2020. As a result of classification accuracy analysis, all six methods showed excellent accuracy of 0.9 or more. The methods where numerical data were applied for data training showed better performance than the methods based on character data of field survey evaluation table. Moreover, the methods learned with the data group (R1~R4) reflecting the expert opinion had higher accuracy than the field survey evaluation score data group (C1~C4). The machine learning can be used as a tool for prediction of soil creep if high-quality data are continuously secured and updated in the future.

Diagnosis and Prognosis of Sepsis (패혈증의 진단 및 예후예측)

  • Park, Chang-Eun
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.309-316
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    • 2021
  • Sepsis is a physiological response to a source of infection that triggers mechanisms that compromise organ function, leading to death if not treated early. Biomarkers with high sensitivity, specificity, speed, and accuracy that could differentiate sepsis from non-infectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) could bring about a revolution in sepsis treatment. Given the limitations and time required for microbial verification of pathogens, the accurate diagnosis of infection before employing antibiotic therapy is important and clinically necessary. Procalcitonin (PCT), lactate, C-reactive protein (CRP), cytokines, and proadrenomedullin (ProADM) are the common biomarkers used for diagnosis. The procalcitonin (PCT)-guided antibiotic treatment in patients with acute respiratory infections effectively reduces antibiotic exposure and side effects while improving survival rates. The evidence regarding sepsis screening in hospitalized patients is limited. Clinicians, researchers, and healthcare decision-makers should consider these findings and limitations when implementing screening tools, future research, or policy on sepsis recognition in hospitalized patients. The use of biomarkers in pediatric sepsis is promising, although such use should always be correlated with clinical evaluation. Biomarkers may also improve the prediction of mortality, especially in the early phase of sepsis, when the levels of certain pro-inflammatory cytokines and proteins are elevated.

Numerical Experiment of Driftwood Generation and Deposition Patterns by Tsunami (쓰나미에 의한 유목의 생성과 퇴적패턴의 수치모의실험)

  • Kang, Tae Un;Jang, Chang-Lae;Lee, Nam Joo;Lee, Won Ho
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.165-178
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    • 2021
  • We studied driftwood behaviors including generation and deposition in a tsunami using a numerical simulation. We used an integrated two-dimensional numerical model, which included a driftwood dynamics model. The study area was Sendai, Japan. Observation data collected by Inagaki et al. (2012) were used to verify the simulation results by comparing them with driftwood deposition patterns. A simplified model was developed to consider the threshold of driftwood generation by the drag force of water flows. To consider the volume of driftwood generated, we estimated the total wood number in the study area using Google Earth. Therefore, we simulated more than 13,000 pieces of driftwood that were generated and transported inland from approximately 300,000 trees that were growing in the forest. The final distribution of the driftwood was similar to the observation data. The reproducibility of the generation and deposition patterns of driftwood showed good agreement in terms of longitudinal deposition pattern. In the future, a sensitivity analysis on driftwood parameters, such as the size of the wood, boundary conditions, and grid size, will be implemented to predict the travel patterns of driftwood. Such modeling will be a useful methodology for disaster prediction based on water flow and driftwood.

A Study on the Influence of Elderly Household Characteristics on Housing Consumption according to Public Pension Receipt (중·고령자 가구의 소득의 특성이 주택소비규모에 미치는 영향: 공적연금수령유무를 중심으로)

  • Jung, Sang Joon;Lee, Chang Moo;Shin, Hye Young
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.105-114
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    • 2018
  • According to Statistics Korea, South Korea has entered the realm of the "aging society" with the rapid development of the country's population. Researchers anticipate that the extremely high (73%) ratio of real estate property to total assets for mid-age to aged households in South Korea that do not have a fixed income may cause serious problems in the future. For example, the real estate market in South Korea may be bombarded with properties listed for sale, causing the average property price to drop due to the abundant supply. Although this prediction may be reasonable, this concept has excluded the idea of pension (which is crucial as it can be considered a consistent and fixed income) due to the limited amount of available data thereon; as such, it is important to include this factor to improve the pertinent research. Thus, this research was conducted using the data from the $3^{rd}$ and $5^{th}$ Korea Retirement and Income Study. For the study results, it was found that variables such as net asset, gender, education, and number of family members have the same impact as that found in the previous studies. To extend from here, two new factors were introduced: the existence of pensions and the amount of pension received by a household. From there, it was found that the existence of a consistent and fixed income such as a pension has led to an increase in housing consumption, the area of interest of the authors.

Change Pattern of Heart Age in Korean Population Using Heart Age Predictor of Framingham Heart Study (Framingham Heart Study의 Heart Age Predictor를 활용한 한국인 심장나이 추이분석)

  • Cho, Sang Ok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.8
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    • pp.331-343
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to observe the trends of heart age of Koreans by using the predictor of heart age of the Framingham Heart Study. The subjects were 20,012 adults aged 30~74 years who were enrolled in the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2005~2013. They filled in the determinants data and they had no history of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The heart age was calculated using a non-laboratory based model of prediction. The difference of heart age and chronological age, and the rate of excessive heart age over 10 years were calculated. The annual trend, the difference according to gender, the age bracket and geographic region, the heart age were all evaluated. Data analysis performed using the SAS program (version 9.3). Complex designed analysis was done. The heart age showed differences according to gender, age bracket and geographic region. The heart age is a useful comprehensive indicator for predicting the CVD events in the near future. So, it could be used for the purposes of exercising caution and guidance on CVD for administering medical care. It is strongly recommended to use heart age as an indicator for customized medical management to focus efforts on relatively vulnerable subjects and their factors for CVD. Further study on Koreans' customized heart age is needed.