• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.223-234
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• 2018

Estimation of future land cover based on climate change scenarios is an important factor in climate change impact assessment and adaptation policy. This study estimated future land cover considering Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) using Scenario Generators. Based on the storylines of SSP1-3, future population and estimated urban area were adopted for the transition matrix, which contains land cover change trends of each land cover class. In addition, limits of land cover change and proximity were applied as spatial data. According to the estimated land cover maps from SSP1-3 in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively, urban areas near a road were expanded, but agricultural areas and forests were gradually decreased. More drastic urban expansion was seen in SSP3 compared to SSP1 and SSP2. These trends are similar with previous research with regard to storyline, but the spatial results were different. Future land cover can be easily adjusted based on this approach, if econometric forecasts for each land cover class added. However, this requires determination of econometric forecasts for each land cover class.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.31-41
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• 2011

This study was conducted to predict future land-cover changes under climate change scenarios and to cluster analysis of regional land-cover characteristics. To simulate the future land-cover according to climate change scenarios - A1B, A2, and B1 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation with socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. Gyeonggi-do were selected as study areas. The simulation results from 2010 to 2040 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. All scenarios resulted in a gradual decrease in paddy area, while upland area continuously increased. A1B scenario showed the highest increase in built-up area, but all scenarios showed only slight changes in forest area. As a result of cluster analysis with the land-cover component scores, 31 si/gun in Gyeonggi-do were classified into three clusters. This approach is expected to be useful for evaluating and simulating land-use changes in relation to development constraints and scenarios. The results could be used as fundamental basis for providing policy direction by considering regional land-cover characteristics.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.77-86
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• 2012

This study was aim to predict future land-cover changes and to analyze regional land-cover changes in irrigation areas and agricultural reservoir watersheds under climate change scenario. To simulate the future land-cover under climate change scenario - A1B of the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation to socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. For the study areas, 8 agricultural reservoirs were selected from 8 different provinces covering all around nation. The simulation results from 2010 to 2100 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. For Madun reservoir in Gyeonggi-do, total decrease amount of paddy area was a similar amount of 'Base demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020 published by MLTMA (Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs), while the decrease amounts of paddy areas in other sites were less than the amount of 'High demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020. Under A1B scenario, all the land-cover results showed only slight changes in irrigation areas of agricultural reservoirs and most of agricultural reservoir watersheds will be increased continuously for forest areas. This approach could be useful for evaluating and simulating agricultural water demand in relation to land-use changes.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.49-49
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• 2016

The impact of land cover changes on streamflow of the Akaki catchment will be assessed using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The study will analyze the historical land cover changes (1993 to 2016) that have taken place in the catchment and its effect on the streamflow of the study area. Arc GIS will be used to analysis the satellite images obtained from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). To investigate the impact of land cover change on streamflow the model set up will be done using readily available spatial and temporal data, and calibrated against measured discharge. Two third of the data will be used for model calibration (1993?2000) and the remaining one-third for model validation (2001?2004). Model performance will be evaluated by using Nash and Sutcliff efficiency (NS) and coefficient of determination (R2). The calibrated model will be used to assess two land cover change (2002 and 2016) scenarios and its likely impacts of land use changes on the runoff will be quantified. The evaluation of the model response to these changes on streamflow will be presented properly. The study will contribute a lot to understand land use and land cover change on streamflow. This enhances the ability of stakeholder to implement sound policies to minimize undesirable future impacts and management alternatives which have a significant role in future flood control of the study area.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.25-39
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• 2013

In this study, the change of the discharge according to the land cover change which acts as one of dominant factors for the outlook of future discharge was analyzed using SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model for Yongdam and Daecheong Dam Watershed in the Geum River Basin. The land cover maps generated by Landsat TM satellite images in the past 1990 and 1995 were used as observed data to simulate the land cover in 2000 by CA-Markov serial technique and after they were compared and verified, the changes of land cover in 2050 and 2100 in the future were simulated. The discharge before and after the change of land cover by using input data of SWAT model was compared and analyzed under the A1B scenario. As a result of analyzing the trend in the elapses of year on the land cover in the Geum River Basin, the forest and rice paddy class area steadily decreased while the urban, bare ground and grassland classes increased. As a result of analyzing the change of discharge considering the future change of the land cover, it appeared that the discharge considering the change of land cover increases by 1.83~2.87% on the whole compared to the discharge not considering the change of land cover.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.67-80
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• 2007

The land cover map represent the state of earth surfaces. It can be used as basic data to explore present conditions of earth surfaces and develop future plans for local areas. To produce the land cover map with efficiency, gathering geographic information from satellite images is important. Exporting, building, and managing processes on the land cover information are needed as well. In this study we aim to review the producing process of the level-2 land cover map in detail and enhance it. h present status of the producing process of the land cover map in Korea is reviewed, problems of the process are explored, and measures for improving it are proposed. The criteria for fixing boundaries and providing attributes for the land cover map are proposed. This proposed criteria may solve problems in a present producing process. The improving measures proposed in this study should be continuously revised in future studies.

• Spatial Information Research
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.47-51
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• 1994

The purpose of the study is to establ ish models of land Cover (use) prediction system for development and management of land resources using remotely sensed data as well as ancillary data in the context of multi-dis¬ciplinary approach in the application to CheJoo Island. The model adopts multi-date processing techniques and is a spatial/temporal land-Cover projection strategy emerged as a synthesis of the probability tra-nsition model and the discrimnant-analys is model. A discriminant modelis applied to all pixels in CheJoo landscape plane to predict the most likely change in land Cover. The probability transition model provides the number of these pixels that will convert to different land Cover in a given future time increment. The syntheric model predicts the future change in land Cover and its volume of pixels in the landscape plane.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry, and Cartography Conference
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• 2003.04a
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• pp.397-408
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• 2003

The information about land use presents future development and vision being the basis of nation development; therefore, it is necessary to more active research that can detect wide land use and changes for the information and efficient management about land use. In this study, we wished to analyze effectively land use changes to Ansan city that is fast changing land use by the latest national land development and urbanization. this study executed land-cover classification using 4 year's Landsat TM images including Ansan city, and efficiently could manage the result of land-cover changes through Arc/Info GRID analysis. Especially, by using change detection system that is developed in this research, we could variously detect land-cover changes, and query and search easily past land-cover changes of pixels that correspond to specific region.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 1999.11a
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• pp.13-18
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• 1999

Land cover map of 30 arc-second grid by NOAA AVHRR data for the whole Asia was produced by the authors as the project of the Asian Association on Remote Sensing(AARS). Land cover change monitoring of continental scale by satellite data needs preprocessing to remove undesirable factors due to noises, atmosphere, or the effect by solar zenith angle. The paper describes the method to remove these factors. The most important thing for better mapping/monitoring in the future is the accumulation of ground truth data by many land cover related researchers. The project of the development of Global Land Cover Ground Truth Database(GLCGT-DB) is proposed.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.85-94
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• 2018

The change of land covers in 2026 was prediceted based on the change of urbanization in 1996, 2006 and 2016 in Seoul and surrounding areas in this study. Landsat images were used as the basic data, and MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) and MCA (Markov Chain Analysis) were integrated for future prediction for the study area. The land cover transition potentials were calculated by setting up sub-models in MLP and the driving factors of land cover transition from 1996 to 2006 and transition probabilities were calculated using MCA to generate the land cover map of 2016. This was compared to the land cover map of 2016 from Landsat. MLP and MCA were verified and the future land covers of 2026 were predicted using the land cover map from Landsat in 2006 and 2016. As a result, it was predicted that the major land cover changes from 1996 to 2006 were from Barren Land and Grass Land to Builtup Area, and the same trend of transition will be remained for 2026. This study is meaningful in that it is applied for the first time to predict the future coating change in Seoul and surrounding areas by the MLP-MCA method.