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Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating (회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2012
  • Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

The relationship of nutrition of rice and positive evaluation of the rice-based meal on the physical and emotional self-diagnosis and learning efficiency of the middle and highschool students in the jeonju area (전주 지역 청소년 대상 쌀의 영양과 쌀을 기반으로 한 식사에 대한 긍정적 평가에 따른 신체·정서적 자각증상 및 학습 효능감과의 관련성)

  • Lee, Hyeon Kyeong;Lee, Young Seung;Jung, Soo Jin;Kang, Min Sook;Hwang, Yu Jin;Yoo, Sun Mi;Cha, Yeon Soo;Cho, Soo Muk
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.90-103
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: This study examined the relationship of the nutrition of rice and the positive evaluation of the rice-based meal with the food consumption habits, physical and emotional health status, and learning efficacy of 601 middle and high school students in Jeonju area. Methods: The participants were divided into two groups using cluster analysis in that the participants belonging to the upper groups had a center score of 46.86 (n = 348), while the people belonging to the lower group had a center score of 36.89 (n = 253). Statistical differences were tested for all the relationships between the physical and emotional health symptoms and learning efficacy between the groups at the ${\alpha}=0.05$ level. Results: Significant differences in the physical self-evaluated symptoms were observed in all five items in each cluster (p < 0.05). In the case of the emotional health status, nine out of 10 items showed significant differences between the groups. Similarly, significant differences in all five items in learning efficacy questionnaire were noted (p < 0.05). Positive attitudes of the parents toward having breakfast also showed significant differences among the groups. Conclusion: The nutrition of rice and a positive evaluation of the rice-based meals significantly affect the physical and emotional health status and learning efficacy of juveniles. These findings can be used as baseline information for promoting nutrition education, particularly rice-based breakfast.

Usefulness of Stomach Extension after Drinking Orange Juice in PET/CT Whole Body Scan (PET/CT 전신 영상에서 오렌지 주스(Orange Juice)를 이용한 위장 확장 영상의 유용성)

  • Cho, Seok-Won;Chung, Seok;Oh, Shin-Hyun;Park, Hoon-Hee;Kim, Jae-Sam;Lee, Chang-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.86-92
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: The PET/CT has a clear distinction on the lesion of the functional image by adding anatomical information. It also could reduce the examination time using CT data as the attenuation-correction. When the stomach was contracted from a fast, it could bring a misinterpretation of the cancer of the lesion with a presence of physiological $^{18}F$-FDG uptake in stomach and it occasionally would bring an additional scan to confirm. To complement this shortcoming, the method that the patients had water before the examination to extend the stomach had been attempted. However, a short excretion time of the stomach did not give sufficiently extended image of the stomach. Then the patients had additional water and had the examination again. Therefore, the noticed fact is that the stomach excretion time depends on calories, protein content, and the level of carbohydrate. In this study, we use an orange juice to evaluate the extension of the stomach and usefulness of it. Materials and Methods: PET/CT scan were obtained on total 150 of patient from February 2008 to October2008, There were 3 groups in this study and each group had 50 patients. First group drank nothing, Second group drank water and third group drank orange juice. The patients (man 25, female 25) not drinking are the age of 30~71 years old (average: 54), the patients (man: 25, female: 25) drinking water (400 cc) are the age of 28~71 years old (average: 54) and the patients (man: 25, female: 25) drinking orange juice (400 cc) are the age of 32~74 years old (average: 56). The patients were fasted in 6-8 hours before the test, the patients were not diabetic. $^{18}F$-FDG 370~555 MBq were injected intravenously. The patients were in stable position for 1 hour, than the image was obtained. The patients drank water and other patients drank orange juice before Whole body scan. The image scan started from mid-femur to skull base. The emission scan acquired for three minutes per bed and the images were reconstructed. Stomach extension analysis is measured from vertical and horizontal length. Results: Stomach Extension was described as the vertical length of the Non Drink Group was $1.20{\pm}0.50\;cm$, horizontal length was $1.4{\pm}0.53\;cm$, the vertical length of the Water Drink Group was $1.67{\pm}0.63\;cm$, horizontal length was $1.65{\pm}0.77\;cm$, the vertical length of Orange juice Drink Group was $3.48{\pm}0.77\;cm$, horizontal length was $3.66{\pm}0.77\;cm$ in coronal image. Stomach Extension was described the vertical length of the Non Drink Group was $2.03{\pm}0.62\;cm$, horizontal length was $1.69{\pm}0.68\;cm$, the vertical length of Water Drink Group was $5.34{\pm}1.62\;cm$, horizontal length was $2.45{\pm}0.72\;cm$, the vertical length of Orange juice Drink Group was $7.74{\pm}1.62\;cm$, horizontal length was $3.57{\pm}0.77\;cm$ in transverse image. The Stomach Extension has specific differences (p<0.001). The SUVs shows the Non Drink Group were measured as Liver $2.52{\pm}0.42$, Lung $0.51{\pm}0.14$, the Water Drink Group were measured as Liver $2.47{\pm}0.38$, Lung $0.50{\pm}0.14$, Orange juice Drink Group were measured as Liver $2.47{\pm}0.38$, Lung $0.50{\pm}0.14$. The SUVs did not have specific differences (p>0.759). Conclusions: There was not a large difference of SUV in three groups. When the patients drank Orange juice and water, the range extension of stomach was higher than without drinking nothing and it was possible to acquire fully extended images. Therefore, it will be possible that unnecessary additional stomach scans will be reduced by drinking orange juice before the examination so that the patients' claim from uncomfortable and long period of fast will be minimized.

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A Study for Improvement of Nursing Service Administration (병원 간호행정 개선을 위한 연구)

  • 박정호
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.13-40
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    • 1972
  • Much has teed changed in the field of hospital administration in the It wake of the rapid development of sciences, techniques ana systematic hospital management. However, we still have a long way to go in organization, in the quality of hospital employees and hospital equipment and facilities, and in financial support in order to achieve proper hospital management. The above factors greatly effect the ability of hospitals to fulfill their obligation in patient care and nursing services. The purpose of this study is to determine the optimal methods of standardization and quality nursing so as to improve present nursing services through investigations and analyses of various problems concerning nursing administration. This study has been undertaken during the six month period from October 1971 to March 1972. The 41 comprehensive hospitals have been selected iron amongst the 139 in the whole country. These have been categorized according-to the specific purposes of their establishment, such as 7 university hospitals, 18 national or public hospitals, 12 religious hospitals and 4 enterprise ones. The following conclusions have been acquired thus far from information obtained through interviews with nursing directors who are in charge of the nursing administration in each hospital, and further investigations concerning the purposes of establishment, the organization, personnel arrangements, working conditions, practices of service, and budgets of the nursing service department. 1. The nursing administration along with its activities in this country has been uncritical1y adopted from that of the developed countries. It is necessary for us to re-establish a new medical and nursing system which is adequate for our social environments through continuous study and research. 2. The survey shows that the 7 university hospitals were chiefly concerned with education, medical care and research; the 18 national or public hospitals with medical care, public health and charity work; the 2 religious hospitals with medical care, charity and missionary works; and the 4 enterprise hospitals with public health, medical care and charity works. In general, the main purposes of the hospitals were those of charity organizations in the pursuit of medical care, education and public benefits. 3. The survey shows that in general hospital facilities rate 64 per cent and medical care 60 per-cent against a 100 per cent optimum basis in accordance with the medical treatment law and approved criteria for training hospitals. In these respects, university hospitals have achieved the highest standards, followed by religious ones, enterprise ones, and national or public ones in that order. 4. The ages of nursing directors range from 30 to 50. The level of education achieved by most of the directors is that of graduation from a nursing technical high school and a three year nursing junior college; a very few have graduated from college or have taken graduate courses. 5. As for the career tenure of nurses in the hospitals: one-third of the nurses, or 38 per cent, have worked less than one year; those in the category of one year to two represent 24 pet cent. This means that a total of 62 per cent of the career nurses have been practicing their profession for less than two years. Career nurses with over 5 years experience number only 16 per cent: therefore the efficiency of nursing services has been rated very low. 6. As for the standard of education of the nurses: 62 per cent of them have taken a three year course of nursing in junior colleges, and 22 per cent in nursing technical high schools. College graduate nurses come up to only 15 per cent; and those with graduate course only 0.4 per cent. This indicates that most of the nurses are front nursing technical high schools and three year nursing junior colleges. Accordingly, it is advisable that nursing services be divided according to their functions, such as professional, technical nurses and nurse's aides. 7. The survey also shows that the purpose of nursing service administration in the hospitals has been regulated in writing in 74 per cent of the hospitals and not regulated in writing in 26 per cent of the hospitals. The general purposes of nursing are as follows: patient care, assistance in medical care and education. The main purpose of these nursing services is to establish proper operational and personnel management which focus on in-service education. 8. The nursing service departments belong to the medical departments in almost 60 per cent of the hospitals. Even though the nursing service department is formally separated, about 24 per cent of the hospitals regard it as a functional unit in the medical department. Only 5 per cent of the hospitals keep the department as a separate one. To the contrary, approximately 12 per cent of the hospitals have not established a nursing service department at all but surbodinate it to the other department. In this respect, it is required that a new hospital organization be made to acknowledge the independent function of the nursing department. In 76 per cent of the hospitals they have advisory committees under the nursing department, such as a dormitory self·regulating committee, an in-service education committee and a nursing procedure and policy committee. 9. Personnel arrangement and working conditions of nurses 1) The ratio of nurses to patients is as follows: In university hospitals, 1 to 2.9 for hospitalized patients and 1 to 4.0 for out-patients; in religious hospitals, 1 to 2.3 for hospitalized patients and 1 to 5.4 for out-patients. Grouped together this indicates that one nurse covers 2.2 hospitalized patients and 4.3 out-patients on a daily basis. The current medical treatment law stipulates that one nurse should care for 2.5 hospitalized patients or 30.0 out-patients. Therefore the statistics indicate that nursing services are being peformed with an insufficient number of nurses to cover out-patients. The current law concerns the minimum number of nurses and disregards the required number of nurses for operation rooms, recovery rooms, delivery rooms, new-born baby rooms, central supply rooms and emergency rooms. Accordingly, tile medical treatment law has been requested to be amended. 2) The ratio of doctors to nurses: In university hospitals, the ratio is 1 to 1.1; in national of public hospitals, 1 to 0.8; in religious hospitals 1 to 0.5; and in private hospitals 1 to 0.7. The average ratio is 1 to 0.8; generally the ideal ratio is 3 to 1. Since the number of doctors working in hospitals has been recently increasing, the nursing services have consequently teen overloaded, sacrificing the services to the patients. 3) The ratio of nurses to clerical staff is 1 to 0.4. However, the ideal ratio is 5 to 1, that is, 1 to 0.2. This means that clerical personnel far outnumber the nursing staff. 4) The ratio of nurses to nurse's-aides; The average 2.5 to 1 indicates that most of the nursing service are delegated to nurse's-aides owing to the shortage of registered nurses. This is the main cause of the deterioration in the quality of nursing services. It is a real problem in the guest for better nursing services that certain hospitals employ a disproportionate number of nurse's-aides in order to meet financial requirements. 5) As for the working conditions, most of hospitals employ a three-shift day with 8 hours of duty each. However, certain hospitals still use two shifts a day. 6) As for the working environment, most of the hospitals lack welfare and hygienic facilities. 7) The salary basis is the highest in the private university hospitals, with enterprise hospitals next and religious hospitals and national or public ones lowest. 8) Method of employment is made through paper screening, and further that the appointment of nurses is conditional upon the favorable opinion of the nursing directors. 9) The unemployment ratio for one year in 1971 averaged 29 per cent. The reasons for unemployment indicate that the highest is because of marriage up to 40 per cent, and next is because of overseas employment. This high unemployment ratio further causes the deterioration of efficiency in nursing services and supplementary activities. The hospital authorities concerned should take this matter into a jeep consideration in order to reduce unemployment. 10) The importance of in-service education is well recognized and established. 1% has been noted that on the-job nurses. training has been most active, with nursing directors taking charge of the orientation programs of newly employed nurses. However, it is most necessary that a comprehensive study be made of instructors, contents and methods of education with a separate section for in-service education. 10. Nursing services'activities 1) Division of services and job descriptions are urgently required. 81 per rent of the hospitals keep written regulations of services in accordance with nursing service manuals. 19 per cent of the hospitals do not keep written regulations. Most of hospitals delegate to the nursing directors or certain supervisors the power of stipulating service regulations. In 21 per cent of the total hospitals they have policy committees, standardization committees and advisory committees to proceed with the stipulation of regulations. 2) Approximately 81 per cent of the hospitals have service channels in which directors, supervisors, head nurses and staff nurses perform their appropriate services according to the service plans and make up the service reports. In approximately 19 per cent of the hospitals the staff perform their nursing services without utilizing the above channels. 3) In the performance of nursing services, a ward manual is considered the most important one to be utilized in about 32 percent of hospitals. 25 per cent of hospitals indicate they use a kardex; 17 per cent use ward-rounding, and others take advantage of work sheets or coordination with other departments through conferences. 4) In about 78 per cent of hospitals they have records which indicate the status of personnel, and in 22 per cent they have not. 5) It has been advised that morale among nurses may be increased, ensuring more efficient services, by their being able to exchange opinions and views with each other. 6) The satisfactory performance of nursing services rely on the following factors to the degree indicated: approximately 32 per cent to the systematic nursing activities and services; 27 per cent to the head nurses ability for nursing diagnosis; 22 per cent to an effective supervisory system; 16 per cent to the hospital facilities and proper supply, and 3 per cent to effective in·service education. This means that nurses, supervisors, head nurses and directors play the most important roles in the performance of nursing services. 11. About 87 per cent of the hospitals do not have separate budgets for their nursing departments, and only 13 per cent of the hospitals have separate budgets. It is recommended that the planning and execution of the nursing administration be delegated to the pertinent administrators in order to bring about improved proved performances and activities in nursing services.

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