Kim Pyung-Il;Kim Yung-Soo;Jang Kyung-Soo;Kim Chang-Whe
The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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v.40
no.1
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pp.1-17
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2002
The purpose of this study is to examine the possibility of thermal injury to bone tissues during an implant site preparation under the same condition as a typical clinical practice of $Br{\aa}nemark$ implant system. All the burs for $Br{\aa}nemark$ implant system were studied except the round bur The experiments involved 880 drilling cases : 50 cases for each of the 5 steps of NP, 5 steps of RP, and 7 steps of WP, all including srew tap, and 30 cases of 2mm twist drill. For precision drilling, a precision handpiece restraining system was developed (Eungyong Machinery Co., Korea). The system kept the drill parallel to the drilling path and allowed horizontal adjustment of the drill with as little as $1{\mu}m$ increment. The thermocouple insertion hole. that is 0.9mm in diameter and 8mm in depth, was prepared 0.2mm away from the tapping bur the last drilling step. The temperatures due to countersink, pilot drill, and other drills were measured at the surface of the bone, at the depths of 4mm and 8mm respectively. Countersink drilling temperature was measured by attaching the tip of a thermocouple at the rim of the countersink. To assure temperature measurement at the desired depths, 'bent-thermocouples' with their tips of 4 and 8mm bent at $120^{\circ}$ were used. The profiles of temperature variation were recorded continuously at one second interval using a thermometer with memory function (Fluke Co. U.S.A.) and 0.7mm thermocouples (Omega Co., U.S.A.). To simulate typical clinical conditions, 35mm square samples of bovine scapular bone were utilized. The samples were approximately 20mm thick with the cortical thickness on the drilling side ranging from 1 to 2mm. A sample was placed in a container of saline solution so that its lower half is submerged into the solution and the upper half exposed to the room air, which averaged $24.9^{\circ}C$. The temperature of the saline solution was maintained at $36.5^{\circ}C$ using an electric heater (J. O Tech Co., Korea). This experimental condition was similar to that of a patient s opened mouth. The study revealed that a 2mm twist drill required greatest attention. As a guide drill, a twist drill is required to bore through a 'virgin bone,' rather than merely enlarging an already drilled hole as is the case with other drills. This typically generates greater amount of heat. Furthermore, one tends to apply a greater pressure to overcome drilling difficulty, thus producing even greater amount heat. 150 experiments were conducted for 2mm twist drill. For 140 cases, drill pressure of 750g was sufficient, and 10 cases required additional 500 or 100g of drilling pressure. In case of the former. 3 of the 140 cases produced the temperature greater than $47^{\circ}C$, the threshold temperature of degeneration of bone tissue (1983. Eriksson et al.) which is also the reference temperature in this study. In each of the 10 cases requiring extra pressure, the temperature exceeded the reference temperature. More significantly, a surge of heat was observed in each of these cases This observations led to addtional 20 drilling experiments on dense bones. For 10 of these cases, the pressure of 1,250g was applied. For the other 10, 1.750g were applied. In each of these cases, it was also observed that the temperature rose abruptly far above the thresh old temperature of $47^{\circ}C$, sometimes even to 70 or $80^{\circ}C$. It was also observed that the increased drilling pressure influenced the shortening of drilling time more than the rise of drilling temperature. This suggests the desirability of clinically reconsidering application of extra pressures to prevent possible injury to bone tissues. An analysis of these two extra pressure groups of 1,250g and 1,750g revealed that the t-statistics for reduced amount of drilling time due to extra pressure and increased peak temperature due to the same were 10.80 and 2.08 respectively suggesting that drilling time was more influenced than temperature. All the subsequent drillings after the drilling with a 2mm twist drill did not produce excessive heat, i.e. the heat generation is at the same or below the body temperature level. Some of screw tap, pilot, and countersink showed negative correlation coefficients between the generated heat and the drilling time. indicating the more the drilling time, the lower the temperature. The study also revealed that the drilling time was increased as a function of frequency of the use of the drill. Under the drilling pressure of 750g, it was revealed that the drilling time for an old twist drill that has already drilled 40 times was 4.5 times longer than a new drill The measurement was taken for the first 10 drillings of a new drill and 10 drillings of an old drill that has already been used for 40 drillings. 'Test Statistics' of small samples t-test was 3.49, confirming that the used twist drills require longer drilling time than new ones. On the other hand, it was revealed that there was no significant difference in drilling temperature between the new drill and the old twist drill. Finally, the following conclusions were reached from this study : 1 Used drilling bur causes almost no change in drilling temperature but increase in drilling time through 50 drillings under the manufacturer-recommended cooling conditions and the drilling pressure of 750g. 2. The heat that is generated through drilling mattered only in the case of 2mm twist drills, the first drill to be used in bone drilling process for all the other drills there is no significant problem. 3. If the drilling pressure is increased when a 2mm twist drill reaches a dense bone, the temperature rises abruptly even under the manufacturer-recommended cooling conditions. 4. Drilling heat was the highest at the final moment of the drilling process.
Objective : To investigate the current status of prescription drugs in Oriental medical institutes and to draw up a future plan for the revitalization of Oriental medical health insurance, this survey has been performed. Method : The survey has been made with 321 doctors working at Oriental medical institutes in Daegu and Kyungbuk areas for a period of 3 month from June 1, 2010 until September 1, 2010. Result : 1. When it comes to the current status of the use of herbal drugs in Oriental Health insurance, most of doctors surveyed prescribe insurance drugs, and they prescribe insurance drugs to patients, who are less than 20% of total patients visiting their clinics. 2. The awareness of Herbal Health Care Drugs is investigated. When it comes to the understanding of the difference between insurance drugs(powder type drugs) and granular type drugs, doctors admit that they differ only in one aspect, whether or not their being covered by health insurance. Based on the survey results on the understanding of insurance coverage of granular type drugs, doctors, even though they long for granular type drugs to be accepted as insurance drugs, are worrying whether the number of outpatients might dwindle due to increased insurance co-payments. They also point out that the biggest obstacles in the expansion of the granular type drugs as insurance drugs are the lack of understanding of the government and the objection of the Health Insurance Review and Assesment service (HIRA) for fear of increased insurance claims. 3. Upon investigation on Oriental medicine doctors' understandings of herbal pharmaceutical industry, it is found that doctors' responses on pharmaceutical industry are not all positive ones('new product development and neglect of R&D infrastructure' and 'smallness of industry'). When it is investigated what area needs the greatest improvement in herbal pharmaceutical industry, 'securing sufficient capital, good manufacturing, and strengthening quality control', is the highest. 4. When it is asked what are the most needed in order to improve herbal health insurance medicine, responses such as 'the increase in the accessibility to and the utilization of Oriental medical clinics through the diversification of the means of prescriptions', 'the improvement of insurance benefits(cap adjustments)', 'increase the proportion of high quality medicinal plants', 'the ceiling of co-payments(deductible) at 20,000 won or more', 'expansion of the choices of formulations', 'formulational expansions of tablets and pills', and finally 'admittance and expansion of granular type drug as insurance drug' are the highest. 5. Upon investigating the general characteristics of the current status of the usage of Oriental health care herbal drugs, the followings are observed. First, the frequency of use of health insurance drugs by the doctors who use health insurance with general characteristics shows similar differences in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.001), average number of daily patients (p<0.05). Secondly, as to the willingness of the expanded usage of insurance drugs, similar differences are observed in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.05). 6. Upon investigating the general characteristics of the perception of Herbal health care drugs, the followings are observed. First, inspecting general characteristics and insurance claims due to increased co-payments(deductible amount) reveals similar differences in case of working period (p<0.01) and in case of total monthly sales amount (p <0.01). Secondly, inspecting general characteristics and the obstacles that hinder granular type drugs from being accepted as health care insurance drugs shows similar differences in case of working period (p<0.05). 7. Upon investigating the general characteristics of the understanding of Oriental Herbal pharmaceutical companies, the followings are observed. First, opinions on the general characteristics of pharmaceutical companies, when examined with variance analysis, shows similar differences in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.05). Secondly, when opinions are examined on general characteristics and the problems of herbal pharmaceutical companies, similar differences are found in case of working period (p<0.01) and in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.001). Lastly, opinions on the general characteristics and reforms of pharmaceutical companies, similar differences are observed in case of working period (p<0.001). 8. Upon investigating the general characteristics of the improvement of insurance Herbal drugs, the followings are observed. First, regarding general characteristics and insurance benefits, similar differences are observed in case of working period (p<0.05), in case of total monthly sales amount (p<0.05), and in case of average number of daily patients (p<0.01). Secondly, opinions on the general characteristics and the needs for the improvement of Herbal insurance drugs are examined in 5 different aspects, which are the approval of granular type drugs as insurance drugs, the expanded practices of the number of prescription insurance drugs, the needs of a variety of formulations, the needs of TFT of which numbers of Oriental medical doctors are members for the revision of the existing system, and the needs of adjusting the current ceiling of the fixed amount and the fixed rate. When processed by the analysis of variance, the results show similar differences in case of average number of daily patients (p<0.01). Conclusion : From the results of this study the first measures to take are, to reform overall insurance benefit system, including insurance co-payment system(fixed rate cap adjustment), to expand the number of the herbal drugs to be prescribed matching with insurance benefit accordingly, and to revitalize herbal medicine insurance system through the change of various formulations. In addition, it is recommended to improve the effectiveness of herbal medicine by making plans to enhance the efficacy of herbal medicine and by enabling small pharmaceutical companies to outgrow themselves.
Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between H. pylori infection and recurrent abdominal pain (RAP) in children and to evaluate the effects of eradication therapy on RAP. Methods: From January 1998 to January 2005, 166 children with RAP (61 male, 105 female) aged $10.0{\pm}3.3$ years were included. Upper gastrointestinal endoscopies were performed for all the patients. All H. pylori infected children (n=70) received the eradication therapy and were divided into two groups: Group Ia (n=52); eradicated, Group Ib (n=18); non-eradicated. H. pylori-negative children (n=96) were divided into three groups according to the medication: Group IIa (n=67); no medication, Group IIb (n=13); acid-suppressant, Group IIc (n=16); both acid-suppressant and antibiotics. Questionnaire for symptoms were asked at the first, 6th, 12th, 24th, and 36th months following the treatment (grade 0; completely resolved, grade 1; definitely improved, but there are occasional episodes of mild abdominal pain, grade 2; no change in the frequency and intensity of abdominal pain). Results: In about 90% of H. pylori positive children, RAP improved in the both H. pylori-eradicated and non-eradicated children in a follow-up survey. In about 75% of H. pylori-negative children, RAP also improved among in the three groups of patients regardless of medication. Conclusion: These results suggest that there was no correlations between improvement of RAP and eradication of H. pylori, and between improvement of RAP and medication. Consequently the reassurance that the children with RAP have no serious organic cause was important to improvement of RAP.
Trust is central to human relationships, at all times and places. The importance of trust is fundamental in all areas of human life, not only in the area of business administration. 2,500 years ago in China, Confucius taught that the foundation of politics was the trust of the people, more important even than military strength or the supply of food. Shakespeare's play, "Much Ado about Nothing' is about trust and deception. These days, trust and transparency in a commercial organization's business culture form the basis of the 'social capital' by which that organization increases its productivity. A successful company raises productivity by the accumulation of social capital, derived from a trust relationship between business partners, and between the company and consumers. Trust is the crucial factor. At the national level, building trust determines a nation's competitiveness. For a company, long term trust relationships with customers are essential for its survival in a business environment of rapid change. Such relationships, based on trust, are important assets to ensure a company's competitive advantage, and need to be organic to that company's business culture. Because of this importance, trust relationships have been studied in diverse areas within business administration, and especially within marketing, where they form the basis of a successful relationship between producer and consumer. However, what has been lacking is a unified definition of trust. Research has been conducted on the basis of various definitions and models. The majority of researchers have not considered the multidimensional character of the concept of trust until now. Approaches based on a one dimensional model have undermined the value of research results. Furthermore, researchers have only considered trust and trustworthiness as a single component. The majority of research has explored the consequences of perceived trust for outcomes such as loyalty or cooperation, but has neglected the effects of trustworthiness upon the mechanisms of consumer trust. This study focuses on the dimension of trust from such a perspective. It seeks to verify the effect of trust on customer intentions by breaking it down into three separate components: 1) the salesperson, 2) the product/service, and 3) the company. The purposes of this paper are as follows: Firstly, we review the multidimensional nature of trust objects: the salesperson, the product/service, and the company. Secondly, we analyze the relationship between multidimensional trust and trustworthiness. Thirdly, we analyze the connection between trust and repeat purchase intentions for the maintenance of long term relationships. For these purposes the author has developed several hypotheses as follows: H1-1: The competence of a salesperson is positively associated with the trust given by the consumer to the salesperson. H1-2: The benevolence of a salesperson is positively associated with the trust given by the consumer to the salesperson. H2-1: The competence of product/service is positively associated with the trust given by the consumer to the product/service. H2-2: The benevolence of product/service is positively associated with the trust given by the consumer to the product/service. H3-1: The reputation of a company is positively associated with the trust given by the consumer to the company. H3-2: The physical environment of a company is positively associated with the trust given by the consumer to the company. H4-1: Trust in a salesperson is positively associated with repeat purchase intentions. H4-2: Trust in a product/service is positively associated with repeat purchase intentions. H4-3: Trust in a company is positively associated with repeat purchase intentions. The data was compiled from 366 questionnaires. 500 questionnaires were collected, but some of the data was considered unsuitable and inappropriate. The subjects of the survey were male and female customers purchasing products at department stores in Seoul, Daegu and Gyeongbuk. It was carried out between Oct. 25 and 29, 2007. The data was analyzed by frequency analysis using SPSS 12.0 and structural equation modeling using LISREL 8.7. The result of the overall model analysis is as follows: Chi-Square=445.497, d.f.=185, p-value=0.0, GFI=.901, RMSEA=.0617, NNFI=.986, NFI=.981, CFI=.989, AGFI=.864, RMR=.0872. The results of the overall model analysis were coherent. It was found that trust is a multi-dimensional construct, that each of the dimensions of trust are meaningful influences on customer's repurchase intention. Trust in a company may be the most relevant, while trust in a product/service and a salesperson may be less relevant to repurchase intentions. The effective factors in determining trust in a salesperson and a company's product/service were found to be competence and benevolence. Factors in determining trust in a company were its reputation and physical environment, and the relationship of each effective trust factor has been verified in this research. As a result, it was found that competence and benevolence have a meaningful influence on trust in a salesperson and in product/service. It was also found that a company's reputation influences the overall trust in the company significantly but a company's physical environment does not have much effect.
The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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v.10
no.3
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pp.154-163
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2005
Irregular discharges of freshwater through the water gates of the Keum River Estuarine Weir, Korea, whose construction had been completed in 1998 with its water gates being operated as late as August 1994, drastically modified the estuarine environment. Sharp decrease of salinity along with the altered concentrations of inorganic nutrients are accompanied with the irregular discharges of freshwater into the estuary under the influence of regular semi-diurnal tidal effect. Field sampling was carried out on the time of high tide at 2 fixed stations(St.1 near the Estuarine Weir and St.2 off Kunsan Ferry Station) every other day for 4 months from mid-February 2004 to investigate into the semi-weekly variation of spring phytoplankton community in relation to the freshwater discharges from Keum River Estuarine Weir. CV(coefficient of variation) of salinity measurements was roughly 2 times greater in St.1 than that in St.2, reflecting extreme salinity variation in St.1 Among inorganic nutrients, concentrations of N-nutrients($NO_3^-,\;NO_2^-$ and $NH_4^+$) were clearly higher in St.1, to imply the more drastic changes of the nutrient concentrations in St.1. than St.2 following the freshwater discharges. As a component of phytoplankton community, diatoms were among the top dominants in terms of species richness as well as biomass. Solitary centric diatom, Cyclotella meneghiniana, and chain-forming centric diatom, Skeletonema costatum, dominated over the phytoplankton community in order for S-6 weeks each (Succession Interval I and II), and the latter succeeded to the former from the time of <$10^{\circ}C$ of water temperature. Cyanobacterial species, Aphanizomenon Posaquae and Phormidium sp., which might be transported into the estuary along with the discharged freshwater, occupied high portion of total biomass during Succession Interval III(mid-April to late-May). During this period, freshwater species exclusively dominated over the phytoplankton community except the low concentrations of the co-occurring 2 estuarine diatoms, Cyclotella meneghiniana and Skeletonema costatum. During the 4th Succession Interval when the water temperature was over $18^{\circ}C$, the diatom, Guinardia delicatula, was predominant for a week with the highest dominance of $75\%$ in discrete samples. To summarize, during all the Succession Intervals other than Succession Interval III characterized by the extreme variation of salinity under cooler water temperature than $18^{\circ}C$, the diatoms were the most important dominants for species succession in spring. If the scale and frequency of the freshwater discharge could have been adjusted properly even during the Succession Interval III, the dominant species would quite possibly be replaced by other estuarine diatom species rather than the two freshwater cyanobacteria, Aphanizomenon flosaquae and Phormidium sp.. The scheme of field sampling every other day for the present study was concluded to be the minimal requirement in order to adequately explore the phytoplankton succession in such estuarine environment as in Keum River Estuary: which is stressed by the unpredictable and unavoidable discharges of freshwater under the regular semi-diurnal tide.
Thecodiplosis japonesis is sweeping the Pinus densiflora forests from south-west to north-east direction, destroying almost all the aged large trees as well as even the young ones. The front line of infestation is moving slowly but ceaselessly norhwards as a long bottle front. Estimation is that more than 40 percent of the area of P. densiflora forest has been damaged already, however some individuals could escapes from the damage and contribute to restore the site to the previous vegetation composition. When the stands were attacked by this insect, the drastic openings of the upper story of tree canopy formed by exclusively P. densiflora are usually resulted and some environmental factors such as light, temperature, litter accumulation, soil moisture and offers were naturally modified. With these changes after insect invasion, as the time passes, phytosociologic changes of the vegetation are gradually proceeding. If we select the forest according to four categories concerning the history of the insect outbreak, namely, non-attacked (healthy forest), recently damaged (the outbreak occured about 1-2 years ago), severely damaged (occured 5-6 years ago), damage prolonged (occured 10 years ago) and restored (occured about 20 years ago), any directional changes of vegetation composition could be traced these in line with four progressive stages. To elucidate these changes, three survey districts; (1) "Gongju" where the damage was severe and it was outbroken in 1977, (2) "Buyeo" where damage prolonged and (3) "Gochang" as restored, were set, (See Tab. 1). All these were located in the south temperate forest zone which was delimited mainly due to the temporature factor and generally accepted without any opposition at present. In view of temperature, the amount and distribution of precipitation and various soil factor, the overall homogeneity of environmental conditions between survey districts might be accepted. However this did not mean that small changes of edaphic and topographic conditions and microclimates can induce any alteration of vegetation patterns. Again four survey plots were set in each district and inter plot distance was 3 to 4 km. And again four subplots were set within a survey plot. The size of a subplot was $10m{\times}10m$ for woody vegetation and $5m{\times}5m$ for ground cover vegetation which was less than 2 m high. The nested quadrat method was adopted. In sampling survey plots, the followings were taken into account: (1) Natural growth having more than 80 percent of crown density of upper canopy and more than 5 hectares of area. (2) Was not affected by both natural and artificial disturbances such as fire and thinning operation for the past three decades. (3) Lower than 500 m of altitude (4) Less than 20 degrees of slope, and (5) Northerly sited aspect. An intensive vegetation survey was undertaken during the summer of 1980. The vegetation was devided into 3 categories for sampling; the upper layer (dominated mainly by the pine trees), the middle layer composed by oak species and other broad-leaved trees as well as the pine, and the ground layer or the lower layer (shrubby form of woody plants). In this study our survey was concentrated on woody species only. For the vegetation analysis, calculated were values of intensity, frequency, covers, relative importance, species diversity, dominance and similarity and dissimilasity index when importance values were calculated, different relative weights as score were arbitrarily given to each layer, i.e., 3 points for the upper layer, 2 for the middle layer and 1 for the ground layer. Then the formula becomes as follows; $$R.I.V.=\frac{3(IV\;upper\;L.)+2(IV.\;middle\;L.)+1(IV.\;ground\;L.)}{6}$$ The values of Similarity Index were calculated on the basis of the Relative Importance Value of trees (sum of relative density, frequency and cover). The formula used is; $$S.I.=\frac{2C}{S_1+S_2}{\times}100=\frac{2C}{100+100}{\times}100=C(%)$$ Where: C = The sum of the lower of the two quantitative values for species shared by the two communities. $S_1$ = The sum of all values for the first community. $S_2$ = The sum of all values for the second community. In Tab. 3, the species composition of each plot by layer and by district is presented. Without exception, the species formed the upper layer of stands was Pinus densiflora. As seen from the table, the relative cover (%), density (number of tree per $500m^2$), the range of height and diameter at brest height and cone bearing tendency were given. For the middle layer, Quercus spp. (Q. aliena, serrata, mongolica, accutissina and variabilis) and Pinus densiflora were dominating ones. Genus Rhodedendron and Lespedeza were abundant in ground vegetation, but some oaks were involved also. (1) Gongju district The total of woody species appeared in this district was 26 and relative importance value of Pinus densiflora for the upper layer was 79.1%, but in the middle layer, the R.I.V. for Quercus acctissima, Pinus densiflora, and Quercus aliena, were 22.8%, 18.7% and 10.0%, respectively, and in ground vegetation Q. mongolica 17.0%, Q. serrata 16.8% Corylus heterophylla 11.8%, and Q. dentata 11.3% in order. (2) Buyeo district. The number of species enumerated in this district was 36 and the R.I.V. of Pinus densiflora for the uppper layer was 100%. In the middle layer, the R.I.V. of Q. variabilis and Q. serrata were 8.6% and 8.5% respectively. In the ground vegetative 24 species were counted which had no more than 5% of R.I.V. The mean R.I.V. of P.densiflora ( totaling three layers ) and averaging four plots was 57.7% in contrast to 46.9% for Gongju district. (3) Gochang-district The total number of woody species was 23 and the mean R.I.V. of Pinus densiflora was 66.0% showing greater value than those for two former districts. The next high value was 6.5% for Q. serrata. As the time passes since insect outbreak, the mean R.I.V. of P. densiflora increased as the following order, 46.9%, 57.7% and 66%. This implies that P. densiflora was getting back to its original dominat state again. The pooled importance of Genus Quercus was decreasing with the increase of that for Pinus densiflora. This trend was contradict to the facts which were surveyed at Kyonggi-do area (the central temperate forest zone) reported previously (Yim et al, 1980). Among Genus Quercus, Quercus acutissina, warm-loving species, was more abundant in the southern temperature zone to which the present research is concerned than the central temperate zone. But vice-versa was true with Q. mongolica, a cold-loving one. The species which are not common between the present survey and the previous report are Corpinus cordata, Beltala davurica, Wisturia floribunda, Weigela subsessilis, Gleditsia japonica var. koraiensis, Acer pseudosieboldianum, Euonymus japonica var. macrophylla, Ribes mandshuricum, Pyrus calleryana var. faruiei, Tilia amurensis and Pyrus pyrifolia. In Figure 4 and Table 5, Maximum species diversity (maximum H'), Species diversity (H') and Eveness (J') were presented. The Similarity indices between districts were shown in Tab. 5. Seeing Fig. 6, showing two-dimensional ordination of polts on the basis of X and Y coordinates, Ai plots aggregate at the left site, Bi plots at lower site, and Ci plots at upper-right site. The increasing and decreasing patterns as to Relative Density and Relative Importance Value by genus or species were given in Fig. 7. Some of the patterns presented here are not consistent with the previously reported ones (Yim, et al, 1980). The present authors would like to attribute this fact that two distinct types of the insect attack, one is the short war type occuring in the south temperate forest zone, which means that insect attack went for a few years only, the other one is a long-drawn was type observed at the temperate forest zone in which the insect damage went on continuously for several years. These different behaviours of infestation might have resulted the different ways of vegetational change. Analysing the similarity indices between districts, the very convincing results come out that the value of dissimilarity index between A and B was 30%, 27% between B and C and 35% between A and C (Table 6). The range of similarity index was obtained from the calculation of every possible combinations of plots between two districts. Longer time isolation between communities has brought the higher value of dissimilarity index. The main components of ground vegetation, 10 to 20 years after insect outbreak, become to be consisted of mainly Genus Lespedeza and Rhododendron. Genus Quercus which relate to the top dorminant state for a while after insect attack was giving its place to Pinus densiflora. It was implied that, provided that the soil fertility, soil moisture and soil depth were good enough, Genus Quercuss had never been so easily taken ever by the resistant speeies like Pinus densiflora which forms the edaphic climax at vast areas of forest land. Usually they refer Quercus to the representative component of the undisturbed natural forest in the central part of this country.
Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.
1. Introduction Today Internet is recognized as an important way for the transaction of products and services. According to the data surveyed by the National Statistical Office, the on-line transaction in 2007 for a year, 15.7656 trillion, shows a 17.1%(2.3060 trillion won) increase over last year, of these, the amount of B2C has been increased 12.0%(10.2258 trillion won). Like this, because the entry barrier of on-line market of Korea is low, many retailers could easily enter into the market. So the bigger its scale is, but on the other hand, the tougher its competition is. Particularly due to the Internet and innovation of IT, the existing market has been changed into the perfect competitive market(Srinivasan, Rolph & Kishore, 2002). In the early years of on-line business, they think that the main reason for success is a moderate price, they are awakened to its importance of on-line service quality with tough competition. If it's not sure whether customers can be provided with what they want, they can use the Web sites, perhaps they can trust their products that had been already bought or not, they have a doubt its viability(Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhotra, 2005). Customers can directly reserve and issue their air tickets irrespective of place and time at the Web sites of travel agencies or airlines, but its empirical studies about these Web sites for reserving and issuing air tickets are insufficient. Therefore this study goes on for following specific objects. First object is to measure service quality and service recovery of Web sites for reserving and issuing air tickets. Second is to look into whether above on-line service quality and on-line service recovery have an impact on overall service quality. Third is to seek for the relation with overall service quality and customer satisfaction, then this customer satisfaction and loyalty intention. 2. Theoretical Background 2.1 On-line Service Quality Barnes & Vidgen(2000; 2001a; 2001b; 2002) had invented the tool to measure Web sites' quality four times(called WebQual). The WebQual 1.0, Step one invented a measuring item for information quality based on QFD, and this had been verified by students of UK business school. The Web Qual 2.0, Step two invented for interaction quality, and had been judged by customers of on-line bookshop. The WebQual 3.0, Step three invented by consolidating the WebQual 1.0 for information quality and the WebQual2.0 for interactionquality. It includes 3-quality-dimension, information quality, interaction quality, site design, and had been assessed and confirmed by auction sites(e-bay, Amazon, QXL). Furtheron, through the former empirical studies, the authors changed sites quality into usability by judging that usability is a concept how customers interact with or perceive Web sites and It is used widely for accessing Web sites. By this process, WebQual 4.0 was invented, and is consist of 3-quality-dimension; information quality, interaction quality, usability, 22 items. However, because WebQual 4.0 is focusing on technical part, it's usable at the Website's design part, on the other hand, it's not usable at the Web site's pleasant experience part. Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2002; 2005) had invented the measure for measuring on-line service quality in 2002 and 2005. The study in 2002 divided on-line service quality into 5 dimensions. But these were not well-organized, so there needed to be studied again totally. So Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2005) re-worked out the study about on-line service quality measure base on 2002's study and invented E-S-QUAL. After they invented preliminary measure for on-line service quality, they made up a question for customers who had purchased at amazon.com and walmart.com and reassessed this measure. And they perfected an invention of E-S-QUAL consists of 4 dimensions, 22 items of efficiency, system availability, fulfillment, privacy. Efficiency measures assess to sites and usability and others, system availability measures accurate technical function of sites and others, fulfillment measures promptness of delivering products and sufficient goods and others and privacy measures the degree of protection of data about their customers and so on. 2.2 Service Recovery Service industries tend to minimize the losses by coping with service failure promptly. This responses of service providers to service failure mean service recovery(Kelly & Davis, 1994). Bitner(1990) went on his study from customers' view about service providers' behavior for customers to recognize their satisfaction/dissatisfaction at service point. According to them, to manage service failure successfully, exact recognition of service problem, an apology, sufficient description about service failure and some tangible compensation are important. Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2005) approached the service recovery from how to measure, rather than how to manage, and moved to on-line market not to off-line, then invented E-RecS-QUAL which is a measuring tool about on-line service recovery. 2.3 Customer Satisfaction The definition of customer satisfaction can be divided into two points of view. First, they approached customer satisfaction from outcome of comsumer. Howard & Sheth(1969) defined satisfaction as 'a cognitive condition feeling being rewarded properly or improperly for their sacrifice.' and Westbrook & Reilly(1983) also defined customer satisfaction/dissatisfaction as 'a psychological reaction to the behavior pattern of shopping and purchasing, the display condition of retail store, outcome of purchased goods and service as well as whole market.' Second, they approached customer satisfaction from process. Engel & Blackwell(1982) defined satisfaction as 'an assessment of a consistency in chosen alternative proposal and their belief they had with them.' Tse & Wilton(1988) defined customer satisfaction as 'a customers' reaction to discordance between advance expectation and ex post facto outcome.' That is, this point of view that customer satisfaction is process is the important factor that comparing and assessing process what they expect and outcome of consumer. Unlike outcome-oriented approach, process-oriented approach has many advantages. As process-oriented approach deals with customers' whole expenditure experience, it checks up main process by measuring one by one each factor which is essential role at each step. And this approach enables us to check perceptual/psychological process formed customer satisfaction. Because of these advantages, now many studies are adopting this process-oriented approach(Yi, 1995). 2.4 Loyalty Intention Loyalty has been studied by dividing into behavioral approaches, attitudinal approaches and complex approaches(Dekimpe et al., 1997). In the early years of study, they defined loyalty focusing on behavioral concept, behavioral approaches regard customer loyalty as "a tendency to purchase periodically within a certain period of time at specific retail store." But the loyalty of behavioral approaches focuses on only outcome of customer behavior, so there are someone to point the limits that customers' decision-making situation or process were neglected(Enis & Paul, 1970; Raj, 1982; Lee, 2002). So the attitudinal approaches were suggested. The attitudinal approaches consider loyalty contains all the cognitive, emotional, voluntary factors(Oliver, 1997), define the customer loyalty as "friendly behaviors for specific retail stores." However these attitudinal approaches can explain that how the customer loyalty form and change, but cannot say positively whether it is moved to real purchasing in the future or not. This is a kind of shortcoming(Oh, 1995). 3. Research Design 3.1 Research Model Based on the objects of this study, the research model derived is
. 3.2 Hypotheses 3.2.1 The Hypothesis of On-line Service Quality and Overall Service Quality The relation between on-line service quality and overall service quality I-1. Efficiency of on-line service quality may have a significant effect on overall service quality. I-2. System availability of on-line service quality may have a significant effect on overall service quality. I-3. Fulfillment of on-line service quality may have a significant effect on overall service quality. I-4. Privacy of on-line service quality may have a significant effect on overall service quality. 3.2.2 The Hypothesis of On-line Service Recovery and Overall Service Quality The relation between on-line service recovery and overall service quality II-1. Responsiveness of on-line service recovery may have a significant effect on overall service quality. II-2. Compensation of on-line service recovery may have a significant effect on overall service quality. II-3. Contact of on-line service recovery may have a significant effect on overall service quality. 3.2.3 The Hypothesis of Overall Service Quality and Customer Satisfaction The relation between overall service quality and customer satisfaction III-1. Overall service quality may have a significant effect on customer satisfaction. 3.2.4 The Hypothesis of Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty Intention The relation between customer satisfaction and loyalty intention IV-1. Customer satisfaction may have a significant effect on loyalty intention. 3.2.5 The Hypothesis of a Mediation Variable Wolfinbarger & Gilly(2003) and Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhotra(2005) had made clear that each dimension of service quality has a significant effect on overall service quality. Add to this, the authors analyzed empirically that each dimension of on-line service quality has a positive effect on customer satisfaction. With that viewpoint, this study would examine if overall service quality mediates between on-line service quality and each dimension of customer satisfaction, keeping on looking into the relation between on-line service quality and overall service quality, overall service quality and customer satisfaction. And as this study understands that each dimension of on-line service recovery also has an effect on overall service quality, this would examine if overall service quality also mediates between on-line service recovery and each dimension of customer satisfaction. Therefore these hypotheses followed are set up to examine if overall service quality plays its role as the mediation variable. The relation between on-line service quality and customer satisfaction V-1. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of efficiency of on-line service quality on customer satisfaction. V-2. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of system availability of on-line service quality on customer satisfaction. V-3. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of fulfillment of on-line service quality on customer satisfaction. V-4. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of privacy of on-line service quality on customer satisfaction. The relation between on-line service recovery and customer satisfaction VI-1. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of responsiveness of on-line service recovery on customer satisfaction. VI-2. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of compensation of on-line service recovery on customer satisfaction. VI-3. Overall service quality may mediate the effects of contact of on-line service recovery on customer satisfaction. 4. Empirical Analysis 4.1 Research design and the characters of data This empirical study aimed at customers who ever purchased air ticket at the Web sites for reservation and issue. Total 430 questionnaires were distributed, and 400 were collected. After surveying with the final questionnaire, the frequency test was performed about variables of sex, age which is demographic factors for analyzing general characters of sample data. Sex of data is consist of 146 of male(42.7%) and 196 of female(57.3%), so portion of female is a little higher. Age is composed of 11 of 10s(3.2%), 199 of 20s(58.2%), 105 of 30s(30.7%), 22 of 40s(6.4%), 5 of 50s(1.5%). The reason that portions of 20s and 30s are higher can be supposed that they use the Internet frequently and purchase air ticket directly. 4.2 Assessment of measuring scales This study used the internal consistency analysis to measure reliability, and then used the Cronbach'$\alpha$ to assess this. As a result of reliability test, Cronbach'$\alpha$ value of every component shows more than 0.6, it is found that reliance of the measured variables are ensured. After reliability test, the explorative factor analysis was performed. the factor sampling was performed by the Principal Component Analysis(PCA), the factor rotation was performed by the Varimax which is good for verifying mutual independence between factors. By the result of the initial factor analysis, items blocking construct validity were removed, and the result of the final factor analysis performed for verifying construct validity is followed above. 4.3 Hypothesis Testing 4.3.1 Hypothesis Testing by the Regression Analysis(SPSS) 4.3.2 Analysis of Mediation Effect To verify mediation effect of overall service quality of and , this study used the phased analysis method proposed by Baron & Kenny(1986) generally used. As
shows, Step 1 and Step 2 are significant, and mediation variable has a significant effect on dependent variables and so does independent variables at Step 3, too. And there needs to prove the partial mediation effect, independent variable's estimate ability at Step 3(Standardized coefficient $\beta$eta : efficiency=.164, system availability=.074, fulfillment=.108, privacy=.107) is smaller than its estimate ability at Step 2(Standardized coefficient $\beta$eta : efficiency=.409, system availability=.227, fulfillment=.386, privacy=.237), so it was proved that overall service quality played a role as the partial mediation between on-line service quality and satisfaction. As
shows, Step 1 and Step 2 are significant, and mediation variable has a significant effect on dependent variables and so does independent variables at Step 3, too. And there needs to prove the partial mediation effect, independent variable's estimate ability at Step 3(Standardized coefficient $\beta$eta : responsiveness=.164, compensation=.117, contact=.113) is smaller than its estimate ability at Step 2(Standardized coefficient $\beta$eta : responsiveness=.409, compensation=.386, contact=.237), so it was proved that overall service quality played a role as the partial mediation between on-line service recovery and satisfaction. Verified results on the basis of empirical analysis are followed. First, as the result of , it shows that all were chosen, so on-line service quality has a positive effect on overall service quality. Especially fulfillment of overall service quality has the most effect, and then efficiency, system availability, privacy in order. Second, as the result of , it shows that all were chosen, so on-line service recovery has a positive effect on overall service quality. Especially responsiveness of overall service quality has the most effect, and then contact, compensation in order. Third, as the result of and , it shows that and all were chosen, so overall service quality has a positive effect on customer satisfaction, customer satisfaction has a positive effect on loyalty intention. Fourth, as the result of and , it shows that and all were chosen, so overall service quality plays a role as the partial mediation between on-line service quality and customer satisfaction, on-line service recovery and customer satisfaction. 5. Conclusion This study measured and analyzed service quality and service recovery of the Web sites that customers made a reservation and issued their air tickets, and by improving customer satisfaction through the result, this study put its final goal to grope how to keep loyalty customers. On the basis of the result of empirical analysis, suggestion points of this study are followed. First, this study regarded E-S-QUAL that measures on-line service quality and E-RecS-QUAL that measures on-line service recovery as variables, so it overcame the limit of existing studies that used modified SERVQUAL to measure service quality of the Web sites. Second, it shows that fulfillment and efficiency of on-line service quality have the most significant effect on overall service quality. Therefore the Web sites of reserving and issuing air tickets should try harder to elevate efficiency and fulfillment. Third, privacy of on-line service quality has the least significant effect on overall service quality, but this may be caused by un-assurance of customers whether the Web sites protect safely their confidential information or not. So they need to notify customers of this fact clearly. Fourth, there are many cases that customers don't recognize the importance of on-line service recovery, but if they would think that On-line service recovery has an effect on customer satisfaction and loyalty intention, as its importance is very significant they should prepare for that. Fifth, because overall service quality has a positive effect on customer satisfaction and loyalty intention, they should try harder to elevate service quality and service recovery of the Web sites of reserving and issuing air tickets to maximize customer satisfaction and to secure loyalty customers. Sixth, it is found that overall service quality plays a role as the partial mediation, but now there are rarely existing studies about this, so there need to be more studies about this.
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