• Title/Summary/Keyword: Foresight

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Analysis of Effect of Aid Fragmentation on Spending on Health by Recipients : Focus on the Sub-Sahara African Nations (원조 범람이 수원국의 보건부분 정부지출에 미친 영향분석: 아프리카 사하라 사막 이남 지역 국가들을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hyemin;Jang, Duckhee
    • Journal of International Area Studies (JIAS)
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.39-72
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to conduct an empirical analysis on the effect of aid proliferation on government spending on health by the recipient nations using panel data and acquire information on the direction of future ODA operations. In this study, calculated excessive foreign aid index with regard to the health sector of Sub-Sahara African nations and conducted an empirical analysis on the effect of aid fragmentation on government spending on health sector. The result of the analysis disclosed that aid fragmentation significantly reduced government spending on health. It is anticipated that such trend came from the mutual pursuit of profit between the attribute (the needs of the donor nation) of ODA projects after new businesses and the governments of recipient nations that want ODA funding. Because competitive and excessive supports in ODA projects induce distortion in the government budget operation of the recipient nations and thereby trigger disutility in ODA projects, Based on the result of the analysis, We proposed to incorporate a more comprehensive deliberation with regard to the capacity of the recipient nations as well as a need for the role of mediating body such as DAC.

Analysis on Results and Changes in Recent Forecasting of Earthquake and Space Technologies in Korea and Japan (한국과 일본의 지진재해 및 우주이용 기술예측에 대한 최근의 변화 분석)

  • Ahn, Eun-Young
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.421-428
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzes emerging earthquake and space use technologies from the latest Korean and Japanese scientific and technological foresights in 2022 and 2019, respectively. Unlike the earthquake prediction and early warning technologies presented in the 2017 study, the emerging earthquake technologies in 2022 in Korea was described as an earthquake/complex disaster information technology and public data platform. Many detailed future technologies were presented in Japan's 2019 survey, which includes largescale earthquake prediction, induced earthquake, national liquefaction risk, wide-scale stress measurement; and monitoring by Internet of Things (IoT) or artificial intelligence (AI) observation & analysis. The latest emerging space use technology in Korea and Japan were presented in more detail as robotic mining technology for water/ice, Helium-3, and rare earth metals, and manned station technology that utilizes local resources on the moon and Mars. The technological realization year forecasting in 2019 was delayed by 4-10 years from the prediction in 2015, which could be greater due to the Corona 19 epidemic, the declaration of carbon neutrality in Korea and Japan in 2020 and the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022. However, it is required to more active research on earthquake and space technologies linked to information technology.

A Research on a Joined Project of Social Education and Village Secondary School Education for Raising The Number of Successors to Fishery (후계어민 육성을 위한 어촌지역 중등교육과 사회 교육의 연계방안)

  • 이현우;이경준
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.1-58
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    • 1988
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the relation between social education and secondary education of seaside and sea village schools for supporting the successors to fishery. Objects of the study were five groups; 321 fishermen, 107 staff members of a Fishery Guidance Center, 1, 001 students, 306 teachers of sea villages, 193 staff members of a Fishery Cooperative Association. The total number of people being object of this study was 1, 876 persons. The questionaire used for this study was made after preliminary counseling with fishermen in sea villages and teachers in seaside schools. The results of this study are as follow ; 1) About the value of Fishery and successors to Fishery There have been more positive responses than negative ones to the question on the value of fishery. The main reason for positive responses lies in the potentiality for development of fishery but the negative responses are because of the heavy work. 56.8% of the respondents expected an increasing number of successor to fishery, but 43.2% of the respondents had a negative foresight on that problem. The negative respondents stated that the fisherman that moved from the sea villages to the urban areas are responsible for the none increasing numbers of successors to fishery. Most of the respondents answered that government support is needed in order to increase the number of successors to fishery. 2) Social education for Fishermen Only 40% of fishermen know the Fishing Village Guidance Center as the main institute for social education. 94.17% of the respondents prefer plural institutes to single ones. 5.9% of the respondents answered with opposit opinions. 40.4% of the respondents answered that technical teachings has not often been practised. The reason why technical teaching does not often come into effect are as follows; lack of technical expertise, insufficient concern of staff members of the Guidance Center or the Cooperation Association. Also fishermen answered that the Fisherman Guidance Center does not often practise technical education. The Fishery Cooperation Association with its social education for fisherman takes the role of education for the economical way and carries out financial assistance. The relationship between the Fishery Cooperative Association and fishermen is presented satisfactory. However, the frequency of education is not satisfactory. Indifferences between staff members of the Fishery Cooperative Association does not carry out fishery education very often. Also loaned money matters were not satisfactory. 3) Secondary education for Fishery This study showed that it is desirable that the practical course of middle schools in islets and seaside villages take education on fishery ; however, a few schools only take the practical course fishery. Most of the fishery high schools want computer education as a new recommendable course. The students of fishery high schools want computer education as a new recommendable course. The students of fishery high schools have problems with scientific terms in the text books for the practical of fishery high schools have problems with scientific terms in the text books for the practical courses. Over 80% of the respondents agreed that the principals of schools in islets and sea side villages should be men having majored in fishery. 4) The connection between social education and secondary education for fishery a. It is desirable that the principal and vice principal of secondary schools in islets and sea side villages are men majored in fishery. b. It is recommendable that fishery courses are taken as practical courses in fishery village schools for it is helpful to relate between the vocation and the district's special character, as well as to built up relation between the middle school education and the fishery high school education. c. The teachers of fishery high schools and the officials of government offices which are related to fishery should work together to realize a program on teaching various kinds of techniques and give other useful informations to fishermen. d. During the vacations the fishery high school could be used for the social education of fishermen. Seminars on fishery technique and cultural aspects could be held. Especially a spiritual education which is needed for the improvement of the society of fishermen could be achieved by a cultural education. e. On the state level a financial support to raise the number of successors to fishery, a national policy for the betterment of the life of fishermen, as well as active publicity activities are necessary. f. A financial support of the government for raising the number of the successors to fishery is needed. For this purpose a fishery education performed on a state level would be desirable.

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Agricultural Geography of Rice Culture in California (미국 캘리포니아주(州)의 벼농사에 관한 농업지리학적 연구)

  • Lee, Jeon;Huh, Moo-Yul
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 1996
  • There are three main rice-growing regions in the United States: the prairie region along the Mississippi River Valley in eastern Arkansas; the Gulf Coast prairie region in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas; and the Central Valley of California. The Central Valley of California is producing about 23% of the US rice(Fig. 1). In California. most of the crop has been produced in the Colusa, Sutter, Butte, Glenn Counties of the Sacramento Valley since 1912, when rice was commercially grown for the first time in the state(Fig. 2). Roughly speaking, the average annual area sown to rice in California is about 300,000 acres to 400,000 acres during the last forty years(Fig. 3). California rice is grown under a Mediterranean climate characterized by warm, dry, clear days, and a long growing season favorable to high photosynthetic rates and high rice yields. The average rice yield per acre is probably higher in California than in any other rice-growing regions of the world(Fig. 4). A dependable supply of irrigation water must be available for a successful rice culture. Most of the irrigation water for California rice comes from the winter rain and snow-fed reservoir of the Sierra Nevada mountain ranges. Less than 10 percent of rice irrigation water is pumped from wells in areas where surface water is not sufficient. It is also essential to have good surface drainage if maximum yields are to be produced. Rice production in California is highly mechanized, requiring only about four hours of labor per acre. Mechanization of rice culture in California includes laser-leveler technology, large tractors, self-propelled combines for harvesting, and aircraft for seeding, pest control, and some fertilization. The principal varieties grown in California are medium-grain japonica types with origins from the cooler rice climates of the northern latitudes (Table 1). Long-grain varieties grown in the American South are not well adapted to California's cooler environment. Nearly all the rice grown recently in California are improved into semidwarf varieties. Choice of variety depends on environment, planting date, quality desired, marketing, and harvesting scheduling. The Rice Experiment Station at Biggs is owned, financed, and administered by the rice industry. The station was established in 1912, as a direct result of the foresight and effort of Charles Edward Chambliss of the United States Department of Agriculture. Now, The station's major effort is the development of improved rice varieties for California.

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Negligence theory of Aviation accident with reference to the japanese aviation accident precedent (항공 사고에서의 과실 이론 - 일본 항공 사고 판례를 중심으로 -)

  • Hwang, Ho-Won;Ham, Se-Hun
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.115-136
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    • 2008
  • The development of the aviation technology is beyond the people's imagination. For example, with some exaggeration, If the autopilot engage upon take off, You will realize that you are on the centerline of the foggy JFK runway 13R after 15 hours with only once or twice of intervention. But the more aviation technology develops, the more responsible the pilot will be who has the final authority of the aviation safety. In the JAL 706 accident caused by unidentified reason, the pilot increased pitch abruptly and overrode the control from the autopilot. The result of this process made the death of a flight attendant and some injuries of a few passengers. The district court found the pilot not guilty at the first trial on the ground that the control override was not connected to the possibility of foresight and avoidance of the human death. The pilot was proved to be innocent through the analysis of the DFDR and ADAS that the override did not precede the unidentified pitch up motion. The judicial precedent related to aviation accidents in Korea requires pilots' absolute and extended care compared to the ordinarily prudent or reasonably careful behaviors in the vehicle and medical accidents. Although there is some controversy about the standard care, the care required in the actual operation of high tech aircraft by a pilot should include objective and standard care and be judged by analysis of the scientific data. Although the pilot maintained the unusual hi speed that doesn't have safety margin and descended under turbulence in case of the JAL 706 accident, the court negatived its relation to the cause of pitch up. Also, the override of the control after initial pitch up might have caused the possibility of the death and injury, but the court denied it. Because of this complex cause of the aviation accidents, it is important for a court to figure out the core reason of the event and casual relationship with the pilot Now, It is required that the judgement of negligence in the aviation accidents should include an objective care with scientific data from simulated circumstances(or a simulator) as the Japanese court not from the theory of vehicle's negligence.

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THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE UNDER RATIONAL EXPECTATION (이성적(理性的) 기대하(期待下)의 환율행태분석(換率行態分析))

  • Yu, Il-Seong
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.31-62
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    • 1989
  • By using deterministic dynamic models, we observe the behavior of the foreign exchange rate of a small open economy with rational expectation formation and different restrictions on the international economic integrations. First, an economy connected to the world by purchasing power parity and uncovered interest parity is studied in the next section. In both sections, financial assets available in the economy are domestic money and bonds. Stocks are added as a financial instrument in the next section, and real capital accumulation is also taken into account. Furthermore, the economy concerned there is fairly autonomous, and not directly governed by either purchasing power parity or uncovered interest parity. The expectation formation used throughout the whole paper is complete perfect foresight, which is the certainty version of rational expectation and free from any forecast errors. It is found that upon monetary expansion the short run depreciation of the foreign exchange rate is a fairly robust result regardless of the degree of the international economic integration, while it is not true for fiscal expansion. The expectation on the long run state significantly affects the short run response of the exchange rate. All of our models postulate that the current account should be balanced eventually. As the result, the short run behavior of the exchange rate is affected by the expectation on the long run balance and may well be a blend of the traditional flow view and modem asset view. The initial overshooting of the exchange rate is easily observed even in the fairly autonomous economy Furthermore, the initial overshooting is not reduced over time, but augmented for some time before it is eventually eliminated. As long as we maintain rational expectaion, introducing time delay in the adjustment of the foreign goods price to the foreign exchange rate does not make much difference.

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