• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.37-47
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• 2022

This study uses monthly data from January 2009 to December 2020 to examine the effectiveness of foreign currency intervention and its influence on monetary policy in Vietnam using a Hierarchical Bayesian VAR model. The findings suggest that foreign exchange intervention has little influence on the exchange rate level or exports, but it can significantly minimize exchange rate volatility. As a result, we can demonstrate that the claim that Vietnam is a currency manipulator is false. As well, the forecast error variance decomposition results reveal that interest rate differentials mainly determine the exchange rate level instead of foreign exchange intervention. Moreover, the findings suggest that foreign exchange intervention is not effectively sterilized in Vietnam. Inflation is caused by an increase in international reserves, which leads to an expansion of the money supply and a decrease in interest rates. Although the impact of foreign exchange intervention grows in tandem with the growth of international reserves, if the sterilizing capacity does not improve, rising foreign exchange intervention will instead result in inflation. Finally, we use a rolling window approach to examine the time-varying effect of foreign exchange intervention.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.199-226
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• 2009

We examine the intertemporal relation between risk and return in the Korean stock market and foreign exchange market based on the two factor ICAPM framework. The standard GARCH model and the GJR(1993) model are employed to estimate conditional variances of the stock returns and foreign exchange rates. The covariance between the rates of stock returns and changes in the exchange rates are estimated by the constant conditional correlation model of Bollerslev(1990) and the dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle(2002). The multivariate GARCH in mean model and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method, consequently, are applied to investigate riskreturn relation jointly. We find that the estimated coefficient of relative risk aversion is negative and statistically significant in the post-financial crisis sample period in the Korean stock market. We also show that the expected stock returns are negatively related to the dynamic covariance with foreign exchange rates. Both estimated parameters of conditional variance and covariance in the foreign exchange market, however, are not statistically significant. The GJR model is better than the standard GARCH model to estimate the conditional variances. In addition, the dynamic conditional correlation model has higher explanatory power than the constant correlation model. The empirical results of this study suggest following two points to investors and risk managers in hedging and diversifying strategies for their portfolios in the Korean stock market: first, the variability of foreign exchange rates should be considered, and second, time-varying correlation between stock returns and changes in foreign exchange rates supposed to be considered.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.5-11
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• 2012

Purpose - The objective of the paper is to explain both the price sensitivity of international tourists to South Korea and the price sensitivity of Korean tourists to international travel. The study examines long-run equilibrium relationships and Granger causal relationships between foreign exchange rates and inbound and outbound tourism demand in South Korea. Research design/ data / methodology - The study employs monthly time series data from January 1990 to September 2010. The paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship using the Johansen cointegration test approach after unit root tests. The short-run Granger causality was tested using the vector error correction model with the Wald test. Results - Hypothesis 1 testing whether there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rates, inbound and outbound tourism demand is supported. Hypothesis 2 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in touristarrivals and expenditure is not supported. Hypothesis 3 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in tourist departures and expenditure is supported. Conclusions - The findings of this study show that the impacts of tourism price competitiveness are changing quite significantly with regard to destination competitiveness. In other words, the elasticity of tourism price over tourism demand has been moderated.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.1-42
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• 2020

This paper studies, from a quantity theory of money perspective, the reasons that North Korean inflation and exchange rates maintain stability while its economy is experiencing difficulties due to the international community's economic sanctions. In doing so, this paper uses both domestic and foreign currencies in an analytic model based on the quantity theory of money to cautiously reflect North Korea's dollarization as well as its management of its exchange rate. In particular, foreign currency holdings are divided into those for store-of-value purposes and those for transaction purposes. This paper shows that in the early stages, in which the amount of foreign currency holdings for store-of-value purposes is decreasing while the amount of foreign currency holdings for transaction purposes is intact, inflation and exchange rates both exhibit stable movements. In the middle stages, where the amount of foreign currency holdings for transaction purposes begins to fall, exchange rates show some increase and inflation decreases. In the final stages, when the amount of foreign currency holdings for transaction purposes significantly decreases, exchange rates and inflation both increase, and in some situations a crisis can happen. According to this paper's analysis, if the economic sanctions continue to the extent that the amount of North Korean foreign currency holdings for transaction purposes starts to fall, the exchange rate and inflation stability we see now are unlikely to be maintained.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.3-38
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• 2015

Fama's (1984) volatility relations show that the risk premium in foreign exchange markets is more volatile than, and is negatively correlated with the expected rate of depreciation. This paper studies these relations from the perspective of goods markets frictions. Using a sticky-price general equilibrium model, we show that near-random walk behaviors of both exchange rates and consumption, in response to monetary shocks, can be derived endogenously. Based on this approach, the paper provides quantitative results on Fama's volatility relations.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.10
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• pp.591-599
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• 2020

This study examines how the health of the banks in ASEAN-3 countries namely Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand respond to the change in exchange rates and foreign interest rates in four large economies. The transmissions of the two external factors through domestic factors in each ASEAN-3 countries eventually affects Non-Performing Loan (NPL) of commercial banks. This study uses the monthly time series data and the renowned Structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model comprising five variables, namely exchange rate, foreign interest rate, domestic interest rate, money supply, and non-performing loan (NPL). The results indicate that there are different effects between ASEAN-3 countries, which can be classified as short-run effect and long-run effect. In the long run effect, external factors have a dominant role in determining NPL in ASEAN-3 countries. Yuan has the biggest effect on Malaysia's NPL, while Indonesia is more affected by European interest rates rather than the fluctuation of the US currency and China's interest rates. Among ASEAN-3 countries, Malaysia is the one that is the most vulnerable to external factors. While Thailand's NPL is affected dominantly by domestic factors. This study shows that the Fed Funds Rate (US official interest rate) is not always the dominant factor affecting the health of domestic banks in ASEAN-3.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.3-27
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• 2014

This paper examines the effects of financial crises on the long memory volatility dependency of daily exchange returns focusing on the Asian crisis in 97-98 and the Global crisis in 08-09. By using the daily KRW-USD and JPY-USD exchange rates which have different trading regions and volumes, this paper first applies both the parametric FIGARCH model and the semi-parametric Local Whittle method to estimate the long memory volatility dependency of the daily returns and the temporally aggregated returns of the two exchange rates. Then it compares the effects of the two financial crises on the long memory volatility dependency of the daily returns. The estimation results reflect that the long memory volatility dependency of the KRW-USD is generally greater than that of the JPY-USD returns and the long memory dependency of the two returns appears to be invariant to temporal aggregation. And, the two financial crises appear to affect the volatility dynamics of all the returns by inducing greater long memory dependency in the volatility process of the exchange returns, but the degree of the effects of the two crises seems to be different on the exchange rates.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.15-24
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• 2015

Purpose - Foreign exchange risk control is in an important component in the international supply chain management. This study shows the importance of the reference period in forecasting future exchange rates with a specific illustration of KIKO currency option contracts, and suggests feasible preventive measures. Research design, data, and methodology - Using monthly Won-Dollar exchange rate data for January 1995~July 2007, I evaluate the statistical characteristics of the exchange rate for two sub-periods; 1) a shorter period after the East Asian financial crisis and 2) a longer period including the financial crisis. The key instrument of analysis is the basic normal distribution theory. Results - The difference in the reference period could lead to an unexpected development in contract implementation and a consequent financial loss. We may avoid foreign exchange loss by using derivatives such as forwards or currency options. Conclusions - We should consider not only level values but also the volatilities of financial variables in making a binding financial contract. Appropriate measures may differ depending on the specific supply chain pattern. We may extend the study with surveys on actual risk measures.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.221-244
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• 2024

This study examines how the independence of monetary policy changes in situations where the interest rate differential between domestic and foreign rates inverts, utilizing the trilemma indices. For analysis, this paper uses the trilemma indices developed by Kim et al. (2017) to analyze the relationship between the monetary policy independence index and the other two trilemma indices, namely the capital account openness index and the exchange rate stability index, across 45 countries from 2002 to 2018. The analysis reveals that the trilemma's validity is contingent. In particular, no statistically significant negative correlation was found between the monetary policy independence index and exchange rate stability index during periods of interest rate differential inversion. A positive correlation emerges between exchange rate stability and the independence of monetary policy, particularly when the inverted interest rate differential exceeds a certain threshold. This situation, where the exchange rate remains stable despite low domestic interest rates, implies that the central bank is effectively managing monetary policy to appropriately respond to economic conditions, which is reflected in the monetary policy independence index.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.27-49
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• 2009

Recently, the Korea's economy concerns the second money crisis because of the rapid increase of the exchange rate. The Korea's economy which is very dependent on the foreign trade is more sensitive to the change of exchange rates. There are many literatures which analyze the effects of variations of the exchange rates on the secondary and tertiary industries such as the manufacturing industry and IT(Information Technology). But there have been no studies which try to figure out the effects of variations of exchange rate on the primary industries, especially, fisheries' industry. Therefore this paper tries to analyze the effect of price competition structure and the change of exchange rate on foreign fisheries exporting prices in Korea's fisheries import market. This study utilizes OLS(Ordinary Least Squares Analysis) for the analysis in the market of frozen yellow corvina, hairtail, angler fish which are major fisheries importable in Korea. The results show that the exporting country which has the highest market share is more sensitive to the change of the exchange rates itself than that of the other exporting countries' price when it starts to set up its exporting price. And the exporting countries which have low market share are more sensitive to the change of price which country has the highest market share than that of price whose countries have low market share and those of their exchange rate. Also we can find out that the countries which have similar market share try to set up price-setting strategy in the opposite direction. In other words, one country tries to bid up its price, other countries response to rival country by lowering their prices. In the consideration of the fact that most exporting countries aren't affected by Korea's fisheries' prices, the exporting countries in Korea's fisheries import market are more sensitive to the prices of other exporting countries than that of Korea's. This result indicates that the price leader-follower model could be applicable to the Korea's fisheries import market.