• Title/Summary/Keyword: Forecasting of Diffusion

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Forecasting Demand for the PCS Resale Service with Survey Data in Korea (설문자료를 이용한 국내 PCS 재판매 서비스 수요예측)

  • Jun, Duk-Bin;Park, Myoung-Hwan;Ahn, Jae-Hyeon;Kim, Gye-Hong;Kim, Seon-Kyoung;Park, Dae-Keun;Park, Yoon-Seo;Cha, Kyung-Cheon;Lee, Jung-Jin
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.619-626
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we place the focus on suggesting a method of forecasting demand for PCS resale service with survey data in Korea. It is important for the service provider to forecast the diffusion process when designing marketing strategies and analyzing the costs and benefits. For the reason, we conduct a survey of three groups composed of non-subscribers, cellular subscribers, and PCS subscribers in order to forecast the demand according to several possible scenarios and business strategies. We consider the survey item that is measured by multiple point scales in response to a question if he would subscribe to the mobile telephone service in the future. We propose a method to forecast the size of market potential by classifying each individual into the two extreme groups, that is, yes or no. Then, by integrating survey data and historical data, we forecast the demand for PCS resale service that varies according to scenarios and strategies. From the results, we can find several implications for the provider of PCS resale service.

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Development of a System Dynamics Model for Forecasting the Automobile Market (시스템다이내믹스 기법을 활용한 차급별 월간 자동차 수요 예측 모델 개발)

  • 곽상만;김기찬;안수웅;장원혁;홍정석
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.79-104
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    • 2002
  • A system dynamics project is going on for forecasting automobile market in Korea. The project is made up of three stages, and the first stage has been wrapped up. As the first attempt, most efforts have been focused on the sound foundation rather than the exact forecast. The model consists of three sectors; the supply sector, the demand sector, and the population sector. The supply sector is a simple stock and flow diagrams representing the supply capacities of all automobile types. The major effort is made on the demand sector and the population sector. The demands are divided into three categories; replacement demands, new demands, and additional demands. The model applies “one car per person" concept, and assumes there will be no additional demands for a while. The replacement demands are calculated based on a simple stock and flow diagram. The new demands are calculated via Bass models; each bass model represents a diffusion for each age group. The population is divided into 101 age groups (age 0 to age 100). The model has been calibrated with past 10 year data (1990 - 1999), and tested for the next two years (2000-2001). The results ware acceptable, although a fine tuning is required. Now the second stage is going on, and most of efforts are made how to incorporate the economic and cultural factors.

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Forecasting the consumption of dairy products in Korea using growth models

  • Jaesung, Cho;Jae Bong, Chang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.987-1001
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    • 2021
  • One of the most critical issues in the dairy industry, alongside the low birth rate and the aging population, is the decrease in demand for milk. In this study, the consumption trends of 12 major dairy products distributed in Korea were predicted using a logistic model, the Gompertz model, and the Bass diffusion model, which are representative S-shaped growth models. The 12 dairy products are fermented milk (liquid type, cream type), butter, milk powder (modified, whole, skim), liquid milk (market, flavored), condensed milk, cheese (natural, processed), and cream. As a result of the analysis, the growth potential of butter, condensed milk, natural cheese, processed cheese, and cream consumption among the 12 dairy products is relatively high, whereas the growth of the remaining dairy product consumption is expected to stagnate or decrease. However, butter and cream are by-products of the skim milk powder manufacturing process. Therefore, even if the consumption of butter and cream grows, it is difficult to increase the demand of domestic milk unless the production of skim milk powder produced from domestic milk is also increased. Therefore, in order to support the domestic dairy industry, policy support should be focused on increasing domestic milk usage for the production of condensed milk, natural cheese, and processed cheese.

A Study on Mobility Loads and the Deployment Patterns for the Development of Smart Place Load Model (스마트 플레이스 부하모델 개발을 위한 이동성 부하 및 보급패턴에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Sung-Wook;Song, Il-Keun;Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.63 no.2
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    • pp.217-223
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    • 2014
  • Recently, various researches and projects about electric vehicles are in progress vigorously and continuously and it is expected to penetrate rapidly with the next a few years. This deployment will cause the change of load composition rate affecting on power system planning and operations. Therefore, a new load model should be developed integrating with electric vehicle loads. In this paper, the load composition rate of residential sectors is analyzed considering the deployment of this mobility load such as electric vehicles and a new diffusion model is proposed based on the classification of the replacement patterns. Additionally, electric vehicle charging loads are basically modeled by some individual load experiments to develop new load models for smart place and some new conceptual power systems such as micro grids.

A Study on Definition and Measurement of Customer Utility based on Attributes of Multiple Generation Technology: Case of 45nm and 32nm Logic Semiconductor (다세대 기술의 속성 기반 고객효용도(Customer utility) 정의 및 측정에 대한 연구: 45nm 및 32nm 로직 반도체 기술 사례)

  • Park, Changhyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.260-266
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    • 2018
  • The concept of customer utility, which affects customer's adoption, is important to understand the process of technology diffusion and substitution regarding multiple generation technology. This research defined the concept of attribute-based customer utility and developed a model for measuring attribute-based customer utility. Based on the literature review and modeling, we provided the definition and a model regarding customer utility and the accuracy of the model is verified through a case study of the semiconductor industry. Customer utility for a multiple generation technology needs to consider changes by generation, or time within the same generation, and is defined as the summation of both technological and economic utilities. In addition, we can model the measurement of customer utility after converting technological and economical attributes into utilities. This research is valuable in understanding not only customer utility as a driver of customer adoption, but also for establishing technological strategy after forecasting diffusion and substitution paths based on customer utility.

A Simulation Study of IT Diffusion by Using System Dynamics (시스템 다이내믹스를 활용한 정보 기술 수용에 대한 동태적 모형 개발 - 휴대 전화 사용을 중심으로 -)

  • Han, Sang-Jun;Lee, Sang-Gun
    • CRM연구
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.49-69
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    • 2006
  • Previous studies, Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Post Acceptance Model (PAM) have a little limitation in time series analysis. To solve this limitation, we used system dynamics as research methodology and designed simulation model based on TAM and PAM. Moreover, we designed new simulation model which can analyize time series data in customers' demand change from initial acceptance to post acceptance. This study targeted domestic mobile phone market. The simulation results showed that diffusion graph was similar to real data. That means we validated our simulation model. Since the simulation model offers the graph of customer's demand change by time, so it can be useful as a leaning tool. Therefore, we think this study helps IT companies use the model for forecasting of market demand.

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An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

FOFIS : Forest Fire Information Systems (FOFIS: 산불 정보 시스템)

  • 지승도
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.13-28
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    • 1999
  • The main purpose of this paper is to design and implement forest fire information system (FOFIS) for effective prevention of forest fire using GIS, database, 3-D graphics, and simulation techniques. In contrast to conventional fire information systems that are mostly based on the 2-D graphics and analytic modeling approaches, we have proposed the cell-based modeling approaches, i.e., spatial, data, and simulation modeling approaches. The cell-based spatial modeling is proposed by eliminating the cliff effect of the typical elevation model so that it can provide realistic 3-D graphics of the forest fire. The cell-based data modeling of geography, meteorology, and forestry information is also proposed. The cell-based dynamic modeling for forecasting of the fire diffusion is developed using the variable structure modeling techniques. Several simulation tests of FOFIS performed on a sample forest area of Chungdo, Kyungsangbukdo will demonstrate our approaches.

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Forecasting Demands for NGN services Using Coexistiency Multi-generation Bass Diffusion Model (공존관계 다세대 Bass 확산 모형을 이용한 NGN 서비스 시장 수요 예측)

  • Lee, Byeong-Cheol;Kim, Jae-Beom;Kim, Yun-Bae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2004.05a
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    • pp.532-535
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    • 2004
  • 현재 국내 초고속 인터넷 인프라는 세계 최고 수준으로 xDSL 계열의 디지털 가입자 회선과 HFC(Hybrid Fiber Coxial) 망을 활용한 케이블 모뎀이 시장을 거의 차지하고 치열한 경쟁을 보이고 있다. 하지만 서비스 가입자 수준은 거의 포화점에 다다른 것으로 보이며 앞으로 속도를 비롯한 품질 면에서 진보된 차세대 인터넷 접속 서비스 구축을 계획하고 있다. NGN은 유무선 통합을 통한 다양한 서비스를 제공을 목표로 정부나 기업에서 추진 중은 차세대 통합 정보통신 인프라이다. 이 NGN을 실현시킬 수 있는 가입자 망 기술로서는 FTTH가 유력하게 거론되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 초고속 인터넷 서비스 수요에 대한 체계적인 분석을 통하여 NGN 서비스 특성을 반영하는 적절한 예측 모형을 제시하였다. FTTH 가입자 수요를 예측하기 위해 본 논문에서는 Bass 모형의 변형인 변형된 공존 Bass 모형을 이용하였다.

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A conceptual model for forecasting innovation diffusion in informations and telecommunications market (정보통신시장의 수용예측을 위한 개념적 예측모형의 구성)

  • 강병용;황정연;임주환;한치문
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1995.04a
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    • pp.455-468
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    • 1995
  • 기술변화에 의한 상품의 대체과정과 수요 성장 추세를 설명하고자 개발된 기존의 통계학적 수요예측 모형들은 확률밀도함수 또는 특정한 수학적 함수의 외형적 특성을 이용한 함수적 접근방법을 사용한 결과 과거 데이터들의 단순 경향치의 추세 설명에 한정되고 상한치를 향한 무한 접근 성장으로 일관되는 함수적 제약을 안고 있으며, 수요의 영향 요인을 반영하지 못하므로써 데이터가 없는 신제품 서비스 예측에 적용이 불가능한 문제점을 갖고 있다. 본 논문에서는 이들 문제점들을 극복하고 시장에 처음 출하되는 새로운 재화 또는 서비스의 수요예측 및 포화수준 도달 이후의 체감 성장에도 적용가능한 방법론으로서 수용의 결정요인을 반영한 예측모형을 제시한다. 모형의 예측능력을 판단하기 위해 정보통신 분야의 몇가지 대표적 제품 및 서비스를 대상으로 기존 모형(peal 모형, weibull 모형, NUI 모형, compertz 모형)들과 NTPS 모형(Nonasymtotic Technological Product Subsituation Model)을 적용하여 예측 결과를 비교하였다. 또한 본 모형을 활용하여 새로운 제품 및 서비스 수요예측을 위한 모수의 특성에 대하여도 검토해 보았다.

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