• Title/Summary/Keyword: Forecasting Failure Time

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Trend Analysis and Diagnosis for BWTS Remote Monitoring (BWTS 원격 모니터링을 위한 트렌드 분석 및 진단)

  • Choi, Wook-Jin;Kim, Chin-Hoon;Choi, Hwi-Min;Lee, Kwang-Seob;Choi, Woo-Jin;Kim, Joo-Man
    • IEMEK Journal of Embedded Systems and Applications
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2014
  • On lot of ships, Ballast Water Treatment Systems(BWTS) are in use, or the newly built ship should be mandatory installation by 2017. It is IMO(International Maritime Organization) regulations. Because the vessel is in long distance, It is managed this system only in the vessel and it may occur considerable cost of maintenance when a problem arises from BWTS. We describe in this paper how to monitor treated ballast water to make sure the ballast water and BWTS on a ship is in proper condition, but before the port entrance. In addition, analysing and forecasting trend signal to prevent failure. Also we can expect reduce the cost of BWTS maintenance. We can monitor the sensor data value's change which collected through satellite from BWTS. And we can observate the ballasting and de-ballasting state of the vessel easily.

A Conceptual Design of Knowledge-based Real-time Cyber-threat Early Warning System (지식기반 실시간 사이버위협 조기 예.경보시스템)

  • Lee, Dong-Hwi;Lee, Sang-Ho;J. Kim, Kui-Nam
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2006
  • The exponential increase of malicious and criminal activities in cyber space is posing serious threat which could destabilize the foundation of modem information society. In particular, unexpected network paralysis or break-down created by the spread of malicious traffic could cause confusion and disorder in a nationwide scale, and unless effective countermeasures against such unexpected attacks are formulated in time, this could develop into a catastrophic condition. As a result, there has been vigorous effort and search to develop a functional state-level cyber-threat early-warning system however, the efforts have not yielded satisfying results or created plausible alternatives to date, due to the insufficiency of the existing system and technical difficulties. The existing cyber-threat forecasting and early-warning depend on the individual experience and ability of security manager whose decision is based on the limited security data collected from ESM (Enterprise Security Management) and TMS (Threat Management System). Consequently, this could result in a disastrous warning failure against a variety of unknown and unpredictable attacks. It is, therefore, the aim of this research to offer a conceptual design for "Knowledge-based Real-Time Cyber-Threat Early-Warning System" in order to counter increasinf threat of malicious and criminal activities in cyber suace, and promote further academic researches into developing a comprehensive real-time cyber-threat early-warning system to counter a variety of potential present and future cyber-attacks.

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Rainfall Forecasting Using Satellite Information and Integrated Flood Runoff and Inundation Analysis (II): Application and Analysis (위성정보에 의한 강우예측과 홍수유출 및 범람 연계 해석 (II): 적용 및 분석)

  • Choi, Hyuk Joon;Han, Kun Yeun;Kim, Gwangseob
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.6B
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    • pp.605-612
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    • 2006
  • In this study(II), The developed rainfall forecast model was applied to the NakDong River Basin for the heavy rainfall on 6th to 16th of August in 2002. The results demonstrated that the rainfall forecasts of 3 hours lead time showed good agreement with observed data. The inundation aspect of simulation depends on actual levee failure in the same basin. Rainfall forecasts were used for flood amount computation in the target watershed. Also the flood amount in the target watershed was used on boundary condition for flood inundation simulation in a protected lowland and a river. The results of simulation are consistent with actuality inundation traces and flood level data of the target watershed. This study provides practical applicability of satellite data in rainfall forecast of extreme events such as heavy rainfall or typhoon. Also this study presented an advanced integrated model of rainfall, runoff, and inundation analysis which can be applicable for flood disaster prevention and mitigation.

Rainfall Forecasting Using Satellite Information and Integrated Flood Runoff and Inundation Analysis (I): Theory and Development of Model (위성정보에 의한 강우예측과 홍수유출 및 범람 연계 해석 (I): 이론 및 모형의 개발)

  • Choi, Hyuk Joon;Han, Kun Yeun;Kim, Gwangseob
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.6B
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    • pp.597-603
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to improve the short term rainfall forecast skill using neural network model that can deal with the non-linear behavior between satellite data and ground observation, and minimize the flood damage. To overcome the geographical limitation of Korean peninsula and get the long forecast lead time of 3 to 6 hour, the developed rainfall forecast model took satellite imageries and wide range AWS data. The architecture of neural network model is a multi-layer neural network which consists of one input layer, one hidden layer, and one output layer. Neural network is trained using a momentum back propagation algorithm. Flood was estimated using rainfall forecasts. We developed a dynamic flood inundation model which is associated with 1-dimensional flood routing model. Therefore the model can forecast flood aspect in a protected lowland by levee failure of river. In the case of multiple levee breaks at main stream and tributaries, the developed flood inundation model can estimate flood level in a river and inundation level and area in a protected lowland simultaneously.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.