• 제목/요약/키워드: Flooding frequency

검색결과 119건 처리시간 0.035초

상관계수가중치법을 적용한 실시간 강우량 추정에 따른 도로 침수위험지수 개발 방법에 대한 연구 (Study on the Method of Development of Road Flood Risk Index by Estimation of Real-time Rainfall Using the Coefficient of Correlation Weighting Method)

  • 김은미;이경현;김창수
    • 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.478-489
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    • 2014
  • Recently, flood damage by frequent localized downpours in cities are on the increase on account of abnormal climate phenomena and growth of impermeable area by urbanization. In this study, we are focused on flooding on roads which is the basis of all means of transportation. To calculate real-time accumulated rainfall on a road link, we use the Coefficient of Correlation Weighting method (CCW) which is one of the revised methods of missing rainfall as we consider a road link as a unobserved rainfall site. CCW and real-time accumulated rainfall entered through the Internet are used to estimate the real-time rainfall on a road link. Together with the real-time accumulated rainfall, flooding history, rainfall range causing flooding of a road link and frequency probability precipitation for road design are used as factors to determine the Flood Risk Index on roads. We simulated two cases in the past, July, 7th, 2009 and July, 15th, 2012 in Busan. As a result, all of road links included in the actual flooded roads at that time got the high level of flood risk index.

지리가중회귀모델을 이용한 도시홍수 피해지역의 지역적 공간특성 분석 (Local Analysis of the spatial characteristics of urban flooding areas using GWR)

  • 심준석;김지숙;이성호
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2014
  • In recent years, the frequency and scale of the natural disasters are growing rapidly due to the global climate change. In case of the urban flooding, high-density of population and infrastructure has caused the more intensive damages. In this study, we analyzed the spatial characteristics of urban flooding damage factors using GWR(Geographically Weighted Regression) for effective disaster prevention and then, classified the causes of the flood damage by spatial characteristics. The damage factors applied consists of natural variables such as the poor drainage area, the distance from the river, elevation and slope, and anthropogenic variables such as the impervious surface area, urbanized area, and infrastructure area, which are selected by literature review. This study carried out the comparative analysis between OLS(Ordinary Least Square) and GWR model for identifying spatial non-stationarity and spatial autocorrelation, and in the results, GWR model has higher explanation power than OLS model. As a result, it appears that there are some differences between each of the flood damage areas depending on the variables. We conclude that the establishment of disaster prevention plan for urban flooding area should reflect the spatial characteristics of the damaged areas. This study provides an improved understandings of the causes of urban flood damages, which can be diverse according to their own spatial characteristics.

홍수특성과 지하공간침수의 관계 검토 (Relationship between Flood Characteristics and Underground Inundation)

  • 이대영;이건행;경민수;김형수
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국방재학회 2007년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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    • pp.367-370
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    • 2007
  • In recent, the utilization of underground in urban area is increased as subway, store, and others but we have done a few studies for the inundation of underground due to flooding. So, we investigate the examples of underground inundation and the causes of inundation for flood events. And the relationship between flood characteristics and underground inundation is analyzed through the frequency of rainfall which is made by annual multi maximum series. As a result, most of underground is inundated by high frequency of rainfall. And there are some cases that the underground is inundated by low frequency of rainfall because of poor drainage system and characteristics of location.

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Modeling the long-term vegetation dynamics of a backbarrier salt marsh in the Danish Wadden Sea

  • Daehyun Kim
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • 제47권2호
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2023
  • Background: Over the past three decades, gradual eustatic sea-level rise has been considered a primary exogenous factor in the increased frequency of flooding and biological changes in several salt marshes. Under this paradigm, the potential importance of short-term events, such as ocean storminess, in coastal hydrology and ecology is underrepresented in the literature. In this study, a simulation was developed to evaluate the influence of wind waves driven by atmospheric oscillations on sedimentary and vegetation dynamics at the Skallingen salt marsh in southwestern Denmark. The model was built based on long-term data of mean sea level, sediment accretion, and plant species composition collected at the Skallingen salt marsh from 1933-2006. In the model, the submergence frequency (number yr-1) was estimated as a combined function of wind-driven high water level (HWL) events (> 80 cm Danish Ordnance Datum) affected by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and changes in surface elevation (cm yr-1). Vegetation dynamics were represented as transitions between successional stages controlled by flooding effects. Two types of simulations were performed: (1) baseline modeling, which assumed no effect of wind-driven sea-level change, and (2) experimental modeling, which considered both normal tidal activity and wind-driven sea-level change. Results: Experimental modeling successfully represented the patterns of vegetation change observed in the field. It realistically simulated a retarded or retrogressive successional state dominated by early- to mid-successional species, despite a continuous increase in surface elevation at Skallingen. This situation is believed to be caused by an increase in extreme HWL events that cannot occur without meteorological ocean storms. In contrast, baseline modeling showed progressive succession towards the predominance of late-successional species, which was not the then-current state in the marsh. Conclusions: These findings support the hypothesis that variations in the NAO index toward its positive phase have increased storminess and wind tides on the North Sea surface (especially since the 1980s). This led to an increased frequency and duration of submergence and delayed ecological succession. Researchers should therefore employ a multitemporal perspective, recognizing the importance of short-term sea-level changes nested within long-term gradual trends.

기후변화에 따른 에너지 저장시설 침수 위험성 평가에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Flooding Risk Assessment of Energy Storage Facilities According to Climate Change)

  • 류성렬
    • 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.10-18
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    • 2022
  • 연구목적: 인천지역 에너지 저장시설 폭우재해로 인한 침수분석의 원활한 수행을 위해 현장조사를 통한 탐문조사 및 목측 조사, 기 수립 보고서 및 도면 분석을 실시하였다. 현장조사를 통해 지금까지 파악되지 않은 관로 및 하천의 특성을 조사하였으며, 이를 토대로 침수분석을 위해 선정한 SWMM 모형의 입력자료를 구축하였다. 연구방법: 재현기간 및 지속기간별 확률강우강도 산출에 따른 확률홍수량 분석을 통해 임계지속기간의 결정을 위해 빈도별 임의 지속기간에 대한 확률강우강도 산정이 필요하므로 국토해양부 연구 성과를 활용하였다. 연구결과:이를 토대로 빈도 및 지속기간별 확률강우량을 추출하여 침수분석을 통해서 임계지속기간을 결정하고, 방재성능목표에서 제시한 강우량을 적용하여 부지의 안전측 검토가 가능하도록 하였다. 결론: 해당 기지의 임계지속기간은 유역 경사가 매우 완만하여 30분으로 비교적 짧은 지속기간으로 나타났으며, 일반적으로 임계지속기간이 30분 이내의 경우 침수가 발생하더라도 침수규모는 크지 않는 특성이 있다.

Connection Frequency Buffer Aware Routing Protocol for Delay Tolerant Network

  • Ayub, Qaisar;Mohd Zahid, M. Soperi;Abdullah, Abdul Hanan;Rashid, Sulma
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • 제8권3호
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    • pp.649-657
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    • 2013
  • DTN flooding based routing protocol replicate the message copy to increase the delivery like hood that overloads the network resources. The probabilistic routing protocols reduce replication cost by forwarding the message to a node that holds high predictability value to meet its destination. However, the network traffic converges to high probable nodes and produce congestion that triggers the drop of previously stored messages. In this paper, we have proposed a routing protocol called as Connection frequency Buffer Aware Routing Protocol (CFBARP) that uses an adaptive method to maintain the information about the available buffer space at the receiver before message transmission. Furthermore, a frequency based method has been employed to determine the connection recurrence among nodes. The proposed strategy has performed well in terms of reducing message drop, message relay while increases the delivery probability.

강우량-지속시간-침수량 관계곡선과 자기조직화 지도의 연계를 통한 범람범위 추정 (Estimation of Inundation Area by Linking of Rainfall-Duration-Flooding Quantity Relationship Curve with Self-Organizing Map)

  • 김현일;금호준;한건연
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제38권6호
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    • pp.839-850
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    • 2018
  • 집중호우에 의한 도시 유역의 침수 피해가 도시화에 따라 증가하는 추세이며, 이에 따라 정확하면서도 신속한 홍수예보 및 침수 예상도 표출이 필요하다. 특정 강우량에 따른 미지의 침수 범위를 예상하는 것은 도시 유역의 홍수에 대한 사전 대비에 매우 중요한 사안이며, 이를 위해 현재 홍수 예보와 관련된 정부기관에서 침수 피해 예상도를 주민들에게 제공하고자 하고 있다. 하지만, 특정 강우에 따른 정확한 침수 범위를 정량화하여 표출하는데 부족함이 있으며, 강우량과 지속시간에 따른 홍수의 크기에 대한 분석을 실시하고 수리학적 연계를 통한 준 실시간 침수범위 표출 방안을 고찰해야할 시기이다. 제시된 물리적 해석기반 자료를 이용하여 강우량-지속시간-침수량 관계곡선(Rainfall-Duration-Flooding quantity relationship curve, RDF)을 제시하고, 자율학습을 수행하는 자기조직화 특징 지도와 연계하여 미지의 침수 지도를 예측하였다. 예측한 침수 지도와 2차원 침수모형을 통한 결과를 비교하여, 제시된 방법론의 타당성을 검토하였다. 연구 결과를 통하여 중규모의 강우량 또는 빈도의 사상에 따른 미지의 침수범위를 제시하는데 용이할 것으로 판단된다. 더욱이 다양한 강우-월류량-홍수 양상을 내포하는 RDF 관계 곡선과 최적 침수예상도 데이터베이스를 구축함으로서 추후에 홍수예보의 기초자료로서 사용될 것이다.

기후변화에 따른 도시침수가 도시교통네트워크에 미치는 영향 예측 기술 개발 (Development of technology to predict the impact of urban inundation due to climate change on urban transportation networks)

  • 정세진;허다솜;김병식
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제55권12호
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    • pp.1091-1104
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    • 2022
  • 기후변화는 전 세계적으로 강우의 빈도와 강도를 증가 시킬 것으로 예측되며 급격한 도시화와 산업화로 인해 도시 지역의 내수 침수 피해로 양상이 바뀌고 있다. 이에 기후변화에 따른 영향평가는 도시계획에 매우 중요한 요소로 언급되고 있으며, 세계기상기구(WMO)는 기상 현상으로부터 발생할 수 있는 사회, 경제적 영향을 고려하는 영향예보의 필요성을 강조하고 있다. 특히 교통에 있어서 도시침수로 인한 교통 시스템의 성능 저하는 사회에 가장 해로운 요소이며 영향을 받는 주요 도로마다 시간당 £ 100k 정도인 것으로 추정하고 있다. 그러나 국내의 경우 현재 기상재해의 발생에 대한 정확한 예보 및 특보를 제공해도 그 영향을 제대로 전달하지 못하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 도시홍수의 침수심을 제시하고 차량에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 피해에 대처하기 위해 각 지역의 고해상도 분석 및 수문학적 요인을 반영하고, 강우로 인한 홍수 정도와 차량 운행에 미치는 영향 정도를 조사할 필요가 있다고 판단하였다. 이에 강우-침수심-차량속도의 산정식을 간단한 선형회귀식이 아닌 다양한 머신러닝 기법을 이용하여 제시하고자 한다. 또한 또한 기후변화 시나리오를 강우-침수심-차량속도 산정식에 적용하여 집중호우 시 도시하천의 침수를 예측하고 미래 기후변화의 영향을 고려한 도로 침수로 인해 발생할 수 있는 교통 네트워크의 장애를 평가하며, 도시 교통흐름 계획에 이용하는 기술을 개발하고자 한다.

A new methodology for modeling explicit seismic common cause failures for seismic multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment

  • Jung, Woo Sik;Hwang, Kevin;Park, Seong Kyu
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제52권10호
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    • pp.2238-2249
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    • 2020
  • In a seismic PSA, dependency among seismic failures of components has not been explicitly modeled in the fault tree or event tree. This dependency is separately identified and assigned with numbers that range from zero to unity that reflect the level of the mutual correlation among seismic failures. Because of complexity and difficulty in calculating combination probabilities of correlated seismic failures in complex seismic event tree and fault tree, there has been a great need of development to explicitly model seismic correlation in terms of seismic common cause failures (CCFs). If seismic correlations are converted into seismic CCFs, it is possible to calculate an accurate value of a top event probability or frequency of a complex seismic fault tree by using the same procedure as for internal, fire, and flooding PSA. This study first proposes a methodology to explicitly model seismic dependency by converting correlated seismic failures into seismic CCFs. As a result, this methodology will allow systems analysts to quantify seismic risk as what they have done with the CCF method in internal, fire, and flooding PSA.

An Experimental Analysis of the Ripple Current Applied Variable Frequency Characteristic in a Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell

  • Kim, Jong-Hoon;Jang, Min-Ho;Choe, Jun-Seok;Kim, Do-Young;Tak, Yong-Sug;Cho, Bo-Hyung
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.82-89
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    • 2011
  • Differences in the frequency characteristic applied to a ripple current may shorten fuel cell life span and worsen the fuel efficiency. Therefore, this paper presents an experimental analysis of the ripple current applied variable frequency characteristic in a polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (PEMFC). This paper provides the first attempt to examine the impact of ripple current through immediate measurements on a single cell test. After cycling for hours at three frequencies, each polarization and impedance curve is obtained and compared with those of a fuel cell. Through experimental results, it can be absolutely concluded that low frequency ripple current leads to long-term degradation of a fuel cell. Three different PEMFC failures such as membrane dehydration, flooding and carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning that lead to an increase in the impedance magnitude at low frequencies are simply introduced.