• 제목/요약/키워드: First order reliability method (FORM)

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Reliability of TLP tethers under extreme tensions

  • Siddiqui, N.A.;Ahmad, Suhail
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.317-326
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    • 2003
  • The tension leg platform (TLP) is a moored floating offshore structure whose buoyancy is more than its weight. The mooring system, known as tethers, is vulnerable to failure due to extreme (maximum and minimum) tensions. In the present study the reliability of these tethers under maximum and minimum tension (ultimate limit state) has been studied. Von-Mises failure criteria has been adopted to define the failure of a tether against maximum tension. The minimum tension failure criteria has been assumed to meet when the tethers slack due to loss of tension. First Order Reliability method (FORM) has been adopted for reliability assessment. The reliability, in terms of reliability index, and probability of failure has been obtained for twelve sea states. The probabilities of failure so obtained for different sea states have been adopted for the calculation of annual and life time probabilities of failure.

The analysis on general characteristics and awareness of first aid of scuba diver

  • KO, Jang-Sik;Cho, Byung-Jun;Kim, Gyoung-Yong
    • 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.161-167
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we propose a study on awareness of first aid of scuba diver. In order to achieve this purpose, a total of 310 customers over the age of 20 were selected as study participants form diving pools and dive resort in Seoul, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Gyeongsang province area using the convenience sampling method However, only data from 295 customers were used after screening the data for reliability. The instrument for data collection was a questionnaire, and descriptive statistics, inter-item consistency reliability, pearson chi-square test were conducted on the data using the SPSS 21.0 version statistical package program. The followings are the results: The level differ significantly according hemorrhage, abrasion, sprain, fracture, fever, arrest, airway obstruction. As a result of analyzing the difference of first aid recognition according to the level of scuba diver, we found bleeding patients, abrasions, sprains, fractures, high heat exposure patients, cardiac arrest patients. There was a statistically significant difference in the level of airway obstruction due to food.

물류보관 랙선반시설물의 시스템신뢰성 해석 (System Reliability Analysis of Rack Storage Facilities)

  • 옥승용;김동석
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제29권4호
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    • pp.116-122
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    • 2014
  • This study proposes a system reliability analysis of rack storage facilities subjected to forklift colliding events. The proposed system reliability analysis consists of two steps: the first step is to identify dominant failure modes that most contribute to the failure of the whole rack facilities, and the second step is to evaluate the system failure probability. In the first step, dominant failure modes are identified by using a simulation-based selective searching technique where the contribution of a failure mode to the system failure is roughly estimated based on the distance from the origin in the space of the random variables. In the second step, the multi-scale system reliability method is used to compute the system reliability where the first-order reliability method (FORM) is initially used to evaluate the component failure probability (failure probability of one member), and then the probabilities of the identified failure modes and their statistical dependence are evaluated, which is called as the lower-scale reliability analysis. Since the system failure probability is comprised of the probabilities of the failure modes, a higher-scale reliability analysis is performed again based on the results of the lower-scale analyses, and the system failure probability is finally evaluated. The illustrative example demonstrates the results of the system reliability analysis of the rack storage facilities subjected to forklift impact loadings. The numerical efficiency and accuracy of the approach are compared with the Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the proposed two-step approach is able to provide accurate reliability assessment as well as significant saving of computational time. The results of the identified failure modes additionally let us know the most-critical members and their failure sequence under the complicated configuration of the member connections.

Fuzzy reliability analysis of laminated composites

  • Chen, Jianqiao;Wei, Junhong;Xu, Yurong
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.665-683
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    • 2006
  • The strength behaviors of Fiber Reinforced Plastics (FRP) Composites can be greatly influenced by the properties of constitutive materials, the laminate structures, and load conditions etc, accompanied by many uncertainty factors. So the reliability study on FRP is an important subject of research. Many achievements have been made in reliability studies based on the probability theory, but little has been done on the roles played by fuzzy variables. In this paper, a fuzzy reliability model for FRP laminates is established first, in which the loads are considered as random variables and the strengths as fuzzy variables. Then a numerical model is developed to assess the fuzzy reliability. The Monte Carlo simulation method is utilized to compute the reliability of laminas under the maximum stress criterion. In the second part of this paper, a generalized fuzzy reliability model (GFRM) is proposed. By virtue of the fact that there may exist a series of states between the failure state and the function state, a fuzzy assumption for the structure state together with the probabilistic assumption for strength parameters is adopted to construct the GFRM of composite materials. By defining a generalized limit state function, the problem is converted to the conventional reliability formula that enables the first-order reliability method (FORM) applicable in calculating the reliability index. Several examples are worked out to show the validity of the models and the efficiency of the methods proposed in this paper. The parameter sensitivity analysis shows that some of the mean values of the strength parameters have great influence on the laminated composites' reliability. The differences resulting from the application of different failure criteria and different fuzzy assumptions are also discussed. It is concluded that the GFRM is feasible to use, and can provide an effective and synthetic method to evaluate the reliability of a system with different types of uncertainty factors.

파손확률 모델을 이용한 솔더 조인트의 건전성 평가 (Reliability Estimation of Solder Joint by Using Failure Probability Model)

  • 명노훈;이억섭;김동혁
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2004년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.365-370
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    • 2004
  • Generally, component and FR-4 board are connected by solder joint. Because material properties of components and FR-4 board are different, component and FR-4 board show different coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) and thus strains in component and board are different when they are heated. That is, the differences in CTE of component and FR-4 board cause the dissimilarity in shear strain and solder joint' failure. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function incorporating with Tresca failure criterion is used in order to estimate the failure probability of solder joints under heated condition. Using shear stresses and shear strains appeared on the solder joint, we estimate the failure probability of solder joints with the Tresca failure criterion. The effects of random variables such as CTE, distance of the solder joint from the neutral point(DNP), temperature variation and height of solder on the failure probability of the solder joint are systematically studied by using the failure probability model with first order reliability method(FORM).

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Reliability studies on RC beams exposed to fire based on IS456:2000 design methods

  • Balaji, Aneesha;Aathira, M.S.;Pillai, T.M. Madhavan;Nagarajan, Praveen
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제59권5호
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    • pp.853-866
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    • 2016
  • This paper examines a methodology for computing the probability of structural failure of reinforced concrete beams subjected to fire. The significant load variables considered are dead load, sustained live load and fire temperature. Resistance is expressed in terms of moment capacity with random variables taken as yield strength of steel, concrete class (or grade of concrete), beam width and depth. The flexural capacity is determined based on the design equations recommended in Indian standard IS456:2000. Simplified method named $500^{\circ}C$ isotherm method detailed in Eurocode 2 is incorporated for fire design. A transient thermal analysis is conducted using finite element software ANSYS$^{(R)}$ Release15. Reliability is evaluated from the initial state to 4h of fire exposure based on the first order reliability method (FORM). A procedure is coded in MATLAB for finding the reliability index. This procedure is validated with available literature. The effect of various parameters like effective cover, yield strength of steel, grade of concrete, distribution of reinforcement bars and aggregate type on reliability indices are studied. Parameters like effective cover of concrete, yield strength of steel has a significant effect on reliability of beams. Different failure modes like limit state of flexure and limit state of shear are checked.

부분안전계수를 이용한 케이슨식안벽의 신뢰성설계법 (Reliability Based Design of Caisson type Quay Wall Using Partial Safety Factors)

  • 김동현;윤길림
    • 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.224-229
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    • 2009
  • 케이슨식 안벽의 Level I 신뢰성설계를 위한 부분안전계수를 산정하였다. 일계신뢰도법에 의한 부분안전계수는 한계상태함수의 확률변수에 대한 민감도, 목표신뢰도지수, 확률특성치 및 설계특성치 등의 함수로써 표현하였으며 전면조위와 잔류수위에 대해서는 현행설계법과의 연계성을 유지하기 위하여 수정부분안전계수를 새롭게 정의하였다. 수치해석을 통하여 목표신뢰도지수에 대한 부분안전계수를 산정하였으며 지진계수의 확률분포는 극치분포를 사용하였다. 지진계수의 설계치를 적용함에 있어서 재현주기가 길수록 부분안전계수가 작게 산정됨을 확인하였다.

Dynamic reliability analysis of offshore wind turbine support structure under earthquake

  • Kim, Dong-Hyawn;Lee, Gee-Nam;Lee, Yongjei;Lee, Il-Keun
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제21권6호
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    • pp.609-623
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    • 2015
  • Seismic reliability analysis of a jacket-type support structure for an offshore wind turbine was performed. When defining the limit state function by using the dynamic response of the support structure, a number of dynamic calculations must be performed in a First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). That means analysis costs become too high. In this paper, a new reliability analysis approach using a static response is used. The dynamic effect of the response is considered by introducing a new parameter called the Peak Response Factor (PRF). The probability distribution of PRF can be estimated by using the peak value in the dynamic response. The probability distribution of the PRF was obtained by analyzing dynamic responses during a set of ground motions. A numerical example is presented to compare the proposed approach with the conventional static response-based approach.

Reliability of articulated tower joint against random base shear

  • Islam, Nazrul;Ahmad, Suhail
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.33-48
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    • 2007
  • An Articulated tower is one of the compliant offshore structures connected to the sea-bed through a universal joint which is the most vulnerable location of the tower that sustains the randomly fluctuating shear stresses. The time history response of the bottom hinge shear is obtained and presented in the spectral form. The fatigue and fracture reliability assessment of the tower joint against randomly varying shear stresses have been carried out. Non-linear limit state functions are derived in terms of important random variables using S-N curve and fracture mechanics approaches. Advanced First Order Reliability Method is used for reliability assessment. Sensitivity analysis shows the influence of various variables on the hinge safety. Fatigue life estimation has been made using probabilistic approach.

해양구조물의 진전하는 피로파괴에 대한 신뢰도해석 (Progressive Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Offshore Structures)

  • 류정수;윤정방
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 1992
  • 본 연구의 목적은 피로파괴에 대한 해양 구조물의 체계신뢰도해석에 관한 연구이다. 제 2차 모멘트 신뢰도 방법에 기초하여 제안한 새로운 두 방법을 사용하였는데, 하나는 개선된 제 1계 신뢰도방법(IFORM)이고 다른 하나는 수정된 Probabilistic Network Evaluation Technique(MPNET)이다. 이상화된 병렬부재모형을 사용하여 부재당 다수의 연결절점으로 구성된 여러 부재들을 가진 경우에 대하여 진전하는 피로파괴에 대한 신뢰도해석들을 수행하였다. 수치해석결과로부터 본 논문에서 사용한 방법들이 재래적인 방법인, 제 1계 신뢰도방법(FORM)과 PNET 방법보다 더 정확한 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 이러한 경향은 체계의 파괴모우드 수가 증가됨에 따라 더욱 분명하였다.

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