• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.577-588
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• 2016

Due to the uncertainties related to the flaw assessment parameters, such as flaw size, fracture toughness, loading spectrum and so on, the probability concept is preferred over deterministic one in flaw assessment. In this study, efforts have been made to develop the reliability based flaw assessment procedure which combines the flaw assessment procedure of BS7910 and first-and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM). Both crack length and depth of semi-elliptical surface crack at weld toe were handled as random variable whose probability distribution was defined as Gaussian with certain means and standard deviations. Then the limit state functions from static rupture and fatigue perspective were estimated using FORM and SORM in joint probability space of crack depth and length. The validity of predicted limit state functions were checked by comparing it with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. It was confirmed that the developed methodology worked perfectly in predicting the limit state functions without time-consuming Monte Carlo simulation.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.193-204
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• 2019

Reliability analyses of sixteen domestic design cases of open cell caisson breakwaters against circular sliding failure were conducted in this study. For the reliability analyses, uncertainties of parameters of soils, mound, and concrete cap were assessed. Bishop simplified method was used to obtain load and resistance of open cell caisson breakwater for randomly generated open cell caisson breakwater. Sufficient number of Monte Carlo simulations were conducted for randomly generated open cell caisson breakwaters, and statistical analysis was conducted on loads and resistances collected from the large number of Monte Carlo simulations. Probability of failure produced from Monte Carlo simulation has a nonconvergence issue for very low probability of failure; therefore, First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) was conducted using the statistical characteristics of loads and resistances of open cell caisson breakwaters. In addition, effects of safety factor, uncertainties of load and resistance, and correlation between load and resistance on reliability of open cell caisson breakwaters against circular sliding failure were examined.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.56 no.4
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• pp.549-567
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• 2015

A first-order moment method (FORM) reliability analysis is commonly used for structural stability analysis. It requires the values and partial derivatives of the performance to function with respect to the random variables for the design. These calculations can be cumbersome when the performance functions are implicit. A Gaussian process (GP)-based response surface is adopted in this study to approximate the limit state function. By using a trained GP model, a large number of values and partial derivatives of the performance functions can be obtained for conventional reliability analysis with a FORM, thereby reducing the number of stability analysis calculations. This dynamic renewed knowledge source can provide great assistance in improving the predictive capacity of GP during the iterative process, particularly from the view of machine learning. An iterative algorithm is therefore proposed to improve the precision of GP approximation around the design point by constantly adding new design points to the initial training set. Examples are provided to illustrate the GP-based response surface for both structural and non-structural reliability analyses. The results show that the proposed approach is applicable to structural reliability analyses that involve implicit performance functions and structural response evaluations that entail time-consuming finite element analyses.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.33 no.11
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• pp.1195-1201
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• 2009

In this study, effective methods for reliability estimation and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) are proposed using kriging metamodel and genetic algorithm. In our previous study, we proposed the accurate method for reliability estimation using two-staged kriging metamodel and genetic algorithm. In this study, the possibility of applying the previously proposed method to RBDO is investigated. The efficiency and accuracy of that method were much improved than those of the first order reliability method(FORM). Finally, the effective method for RBDO is proposed and applied to numerical examples. The results are compared to the existing RBDO methods and shown to be very effective and accurate.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.23 no.12
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• pp.61-73
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• 2007

As a part of Load and Resistance Factor Design(LRFD) code development in Korea, in this paper an intensive reliability analysis was performed to evaluate reliability levels of the two static bearing capacity methods for driven steel pipe piles adopted in Korean Standards for Structure Foundations by the representative reliability methods of First Order Reliability Method(FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS). The resistance bias factors for the two static design methods were evaluated by comparing the representative measured bearing capacities with the design values. In determination of the representative bearing capacities of driven steel pipe piles, the 58 data sets of static load tests and soil property tests were collected and analyzed. The static bearing capacity formula and the Meyerhof method using N values were applied to the calculation of the expected design bearing capacity of the piles. The two representative reliability methods(FORM, MCS) based computer programs were developed to facilitate the reliability analysis in this study. Mean Value First Order Second Moment(MVFOSM) approach that provides a simple closed-form solution and two advanced methods of FORM and MCS were used to conduct the intensive reliability analysis using the resistance bias factor statistics obtained, and the results were then compared. In addition, a parametric study was conducted to identify the sensibility and the influence of the random variables on the reliability analysis under consideration.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.79-93
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• 2009

In the present paper, a methodology has been presented for the reliability assessment of concrete barriers that lie at a certain depth in the soil, and a missile (a rigid projectile) impacts the top of the soil cover normally, and subsequently after penetrating the soil cover completely it hits the barrier with certain striking velocity. For this purpose, using expressions available in the literature, striking velocity of missile at any depth of soil has been derived and then expressions for the depths of penetration in crater and tunnel region of concrete barrier have been deduced. These depths of penetration have been employed for the derivation of limit state functions. Using the derived limit state functions reliability assessment of underground concrete barrier has then been carried out through First Order Reliability Method (FORM). To study the influence of various random variables on barrier reliability, sensitivity analysis has also been carried out. In addition, a number of parametric studies is conducted to obtain the results of practical interest.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.54 no.5
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• pp.430-438
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• 2017

This study presents the reliability-based flaw assessment for the crack in the mooring chain of a floating type offshore structure. BSI(British Standard Institution) flaw assessment procedure BS7910 was combined with first- and second-order reliability method (FORM, SORM) so that the acceptance of a given flaw can be assessed considering the uncertainties of parameters that play important role in the flaw assessment. Considering the probabilistic nature of the crack size and long-term distribution of the stresses acting on the crack in mooring chain, the failure probability was calculated using FORM and SORM. To check the validity of the FORM and SORM, Monte Carlo simulation was also carried out to derive the true limit state function and compared with the results of FORM and SORM.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.171-193
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• 2011

One of the possible alternatives of simulation-based time-dependent reliability assessment of pre-stressed biconcave and biconvex cable trusses, the Monte Carlo method, is applied in this paper. The influence of an excessive deflection of cable truss (caused by creep of cables and rheologic changes) on its time-dependent serviceability is investigated. Attention is given to the definition of the basic random variables and their statistical functions (basic, mutually dependent random variables such as the pre-stressing forces of the bottom and top cable, structural geometry, the Young's modulus of elasticity of the cables, and the independent variables, such as permanent load, wind, snow and thermal actions). Then, the determination of the response of the cable truss to the loading effects, and the definition of the limiting values considering serviceability of the structure are performed. The potential of the method, using direct Monte Carlo technique for simulation-based time-dependent reliability assessment as a powerful tool, is emphasized. Results obtained by the First order reliability method (FORM) are compared with those obtained by the Monte Carlo simulation technique.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.443-444
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• 2008

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2005.04a
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• pp.187-190
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• 2005

In this study, the reliablility based design optimization is peformed for an aircraft wing. The flexiblility of the wing was assumed by considering the interaction modeled by static aeroelasticity between aerodynamic forces and the structure. For a multidisciplinary design optimization the results of aerodynamic analysis and structural analysis were included in the optimization formulation. The First Order Reliability Method(FORM) was employed to consider the uncertainty of the designed points.