• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fire risk prediction

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Regional Optimization of Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and its Application to 2022 North Korea Wildfires (산불위험지수 지역최적화를 통한 2022년 북한산불 사례분석)

  • Youn, Youjeong;Kim, Seoyeon;Choi, Soyeon;Park, Ganghyun;Kang, Jonggu;Kim, Geunah;Kwon, Chunguen;Seo, Kyungwon;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.6_3
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    • pp.1847-1859
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    • 2022
  • Wildfires in North Korea can have a directly or indirectly affect South Korea if they go south to the Demilitarized Zone. Therefore, this study calculates the regional optimized Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) based on Local Data Assessment and Prediction System (LDAPS) weather data to obtain forest fire risk in North Korea, and applied it to the cases in Goseong-gun and Cheorwon-gun, North Korea in April 2022. As a result, the suitability was confirmed as the FFDI at the time of ignition corresponded to the risk class Extreme and Severe sections, respectively. In addition, a qualitative comparison of the risk map and the soil moisture map before and after the wildfire, the correlation was grasped. A new forest fire risk index that combines drought factors such as soil moisture, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) will be needed in the future.

A study on prediction and improvement method of fire risk for a newly built college dormitory (신축 승선생활관의 화재 위험성 예측 및 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Byeol;Hwang, Kwang-Il
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.228-234
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    • 2016
  • As a college dormitory has the features of high dwelling density and a floating population that becomes crowded during particular times, when a disaster such as a fire occurs, it has the risk of causing much loss of life. In this study, the fire simulation program Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), is used to predict the risk when a fire occurs, to analyze the problem, and to suggest an improvement plan for a new cadet dormitory at an university in Korea. The research results are as follows. When a fire occurred in the ironing room inside the cadet dormitory, a smoke detector operated after 65 seconds. Thirteen seconds later, a sprinkler started to operate. The temperature and carbon monoxide density reached the limit value at 241 and 248 seconds, respectively. Because the limit visibility value was reached within 66 seconds after the occurrence of a fire, it is predicted that preparation must be finished and evacuation should begin within 1 minute after the fire occurs, in order to have no casualties. Synthesizing this dormitory fire risk prediction result, the visibility value is considered to be the most dangerous factor for personal safety. Because of this, installing a smoke extraction system is suggested to secure visibility. After the installation of a smoke extraction system, the problem of smoke diffusion in the corridors improved.

Development of Prediction Model of Fuel Moisture Changes in the Spring for the Pine Forest Located the Yeongdong Region(Focused on the Fallen Leaves and Soil Moisture Level) (영동지역 봄철 소나무림에서 연료습도변화 예측모델 개발(낙엽 및 토양습도를 중심으로))

  • Lee, Si-Young;Kwon, Chun-Geun;Lee, Myung-Woog;Lee, Hae-Pyeong;Cha, Joo-Young
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 2010
  • The fuel moisture changes accompanying with the elapsed days after a rainfall is very important to predict the risk of forest fire and make a good use of forest fire guard. So, to investigate the conditions for the risk of forest fire, it was studied the risk of forest fire for fallen leaves level, rotten level, and soil level after more-than-5 mm-rainfall according to the different forest density of pine forests which were located in Yeong-dong region in the Spring of 2007. The result of the study showed that the around 17% of fuel moisture which was the risky level for forest fire was reached after three days of a rainfall in the coarse dense forest region and after five days in the medium or highly dense forest region. However, for the rotten level represents more than 30% of fuel moisture even after six days after the rainfall, and the lower and upper level of the soil represented a slight or almost no changes. Based on the result, the prediction model ($R^2$=0.56~0.87) for the change of fuel moisture was developed, and it was examined by applying to actual meteorological measurements in the same period of 2008. It showed a meaningful result of 1% level of distinction.

A Study on the Design Fire Model for Structural Fire Resistant Design in Buildings (건축구조물의 구조내화설계를 위한 설계화재모델에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Young-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.256-257
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the fire risk of architectural structures is increasing due to the super high - rise and super - size of the buildings. Therefore, the direction of fire safety design tends to change from the existing design to the performance - based design. In particular, domestic fire safety policies are divided into building law and fire fighting law. In case of fire fighting law, performance design is already carried out. Therefore, this study summarizes the prediction formula for fire characteristics among the structural fireproofing design field as shown in Fig. 1 according to this situation, and compares it with the standard method of each country in particular.

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A Study on the Analysis of Simulation for Fire Safety Diagnosis in Traditional Market Area (전통시장지역의 화재위험성 평가를 위한 시뮬레이션 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Koo, In-Hyuk;Lee, Byeong-Heun;Kwon, Young-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.46-47
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    • 2017
  • Korea rapidly arranged urbanization and overpopulation with high growth of economy and all kinds of decrepit facilities are scattered all over the downtown. If there is a strong wind in fire, fire is rapidly increased by various fire spread factors. And Korea cannot build prediction model of urban fire combustion phenomena because there is no studies that physically explains the suitable flame phenomena for its real state. In this study, based on the Japanese Urban fire simulation to target the traditional market area and suitability of fire risk assessment were reviewed.

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A Study on the Analysis of Simulation for Fire Safety Diagnosis in Building Congested Area (건축물 밀집지구의 화재위험성 평가를 위한 시뮬레이션 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Koo, In-Hyuk;Yoon, Ung-Gi;Kim, Bong-Chan;Kwon, Young-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2013.11a
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    • pp.226-227
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    • 2013
  • Korea rapidly arranged urbanization and overpopulation with high growth of economy and all kinds of decrepit facilities are scattered all over the downtown. If there is a strong wind in fire, fire is rapidly increased by various fire spread factors. And Korea cannot build prediction model of urban fire combustion phenomena because there is no studies that physically explains the suitable flame phenomena for its real state. In this study, based on the Japanese Urban fire simulation to target the building congested Area and suitability of fire risk assessment were reviewed.

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A Study on the Analysis of Simulation for Fire Safety Diagnosis in Wooden Building Congested Area (목조건물 밀집 지역의 화재위험성 평가를 위한 시뮬레이션 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Koo, In-Hyuk;Kim, Bong-Chan;Seo, Dong-Goo;Kwon, Young-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2013.05a
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    • pp.87-88
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    • 2013
  • Korea rapidly arranged urbanization and overpopulation with high growth of economy and all kinds of decrepit facilities are scattered all over the downtown. If there is a strong wind in fire, fire is rapidly increased by various fire spread factors. And Korea cannot build prediction model of urban fire combustion phenomena because there is no studies that physically explains the suitable flame phenomena for its real state. In this study, based on the Japanese Urban fire simulation to target the wooden building congested Area and suitability of fire risk assessment were reviewed.

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An Ergonomic Analysis for Heavy Manual Material Handling Jobs by Fire Fighters (소방대원의 중량물작업에 대한 인간공학적 분석)

  • Im, Su-Jung;Park, Jong-Tae;Choi, Seo-Yeon;Park, Dong-Hyun
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2013
  • Modern fire fighting jobs have been expanded to include areas of rescue, emergency medical service as well as conventional fire suppression, so that load for fire fighting jobs has been increased. Specifically, musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) such as low back injury have been considered as one of major industrial hazards in heavy manual material handling during fire fighting jobs. This study tried to evaluate risk levels and to prepare background for reducing risk levels associated with heavy manual material handling during fire fighting jobs. This study applied two major tools in evaluating heavy manual material handling jobs which were NLE (NIOSH Lifting Equation) and 3DSSPP (3D Static Strength Prediction Program). A risk index in terms of heavy manual material handling during fire fighting jobs was identified. This index consisted of seven risk levels ranged from nine points (the first level) to three points (the seventh level). There was no job associated with the first level (the highest risk level) of index. There was only one job (life saving job) belonging to the second level (the second highest risk level) of index. The third level had jobs such as usage of destruction equipment and lifting patient. A total of basic eighteen jobs was categorized into six different levels (2nd-7th levels) of index. The outcome of the study could provide a good basis for conducting job intervention, preparing good equipment and developing good education program in order to prevent and reduce MSDs including low back injury of fire fighting jobs.

Hazard prediction of coal and gas outburst based on fisher discriminant analysis

  • Chen, Liang;Wang, Enyuan;Feng, Junjun;Wang, Xiaoran;Li, Xuelong
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.861-879
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    • 2017
  • Coal and gas outburst is a serious dynamic disaster that occurs during coal mining and threatens the lives of coal miners. Currently, coal and gas outburst is commonly predicted using single indicator and its critical value. However, single indicator is unable to fully reflect all of the factors impacting outburst risk and has poor prediction accuracy. Therefore, a more accurate prediction method is necessary. In this work, we first analyzed on-site impacting factors and precursors of coal and gas outburst; then, we constructed a Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA) index system using the gas adsorption index of drilling cutting ${\Delta}h_2$, the drilling cutting weight S, the initial velocity of gas emission from borehole q, the thickness of soft coal h, and the maximum ratio of post-blasting gas emission peak to pre-blasting gas emission $B_{max}$; finally, we studied an FDA-based multiple indicators discriminant model of coal and gas outburst, and applied the discriminant model to predict coal and gas outburst. The results showed that the discriminant model has 100% prediction accuracy, even when some conventional indexes are lower than the warning criteria. The FDA method has a broad application prospects in coal and gas outburst prediction.