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Stock Price Prediction and Portfolio Selection Using Artificial Intelligence

  • Sandeep Patalay;Madhusudhan Rao Bandlamudi
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.31-52
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    • 2020
  • Stock markets are popular investment avenues to people who plan to receive premium returns compared to other financial instruments, but they are highly volatile and risky due to the complex financial dynamics and poor understanding of the market forces involved in the price determination. A system that can forecast, predict the stock prices and automatically create a portfolio of top performing stocks is of great value to individual investors who do not have sufficient knowledge to understand the complex dynamics involved in evaluating and predicting stock prices. In this paper the authors propose a Stock prediction, Portfolio Generation and Selection model based on Machine learning algorithms, Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used for stock price prediction, Mathematical and Statistical techniques are used for Portfolio generation and Un-Supervised Machine learning based on K-Means Clustering algorithms are used for Portfolio Evaluation and Selection which take in to account the Portfolio Return and Risk in to consideration. The model presented here is limited to predicting stock prices on a long term basis as the inputs to the model are based on fundamental attributes and intrinsic value of the stock. The results of this study are quite encouraging as the stock prediction models are able predict stock prices at least a financial quarter in advance with an accuracy of around 90 percent and the portfolio selection classifiers are giving returns in excess of average market returns.

Contrarian Strategy Based on Past Stock Return and Volatility (변동성을 이용한 반대투자전략에 대한 실증분석)

  • Park, Kyeong-In;Jee, Chang
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2006
  • This paper studied the performance of momentum strategy and contrarian strategy based or past stock return ratio of Korean stock market. The comparative study shows that the volatility of stock markets that can be found the performance of momentum strategy is smaller than that of emerging stock market. Accordingly, This paper examines that the performances of momentum strategy and contrarian strategy are affected by the larger volatility in Korean stock market. Further analysis using the 6 years sub-portfolios reveals that the momentum strategy is significant only during 1980 to 1986 time period when it had the least market volatility. Additionally, we investigate whether firm-level volatility as well as market volatility influence on the performance of contrarian strategy, and figure out that the momentum strategy is significant for the portfolio composed of firms with smaller volatility for previous period, while not significant for the portfolio composed of firms with larger volatility.

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Geographic Expansion of the Leverage Cycle Theory: Focusing on the Subprime Real Estate Investor in the Depressed Housing Market (레버리지 주기 이론의 지리적 확장: 불황 주택시장의 서브프라임 부동산 투자자를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hoobin
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.592-609
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    • 2019
  • This study attempts to expand the leverage cycle theory using the subprime real estate investors. The leverage cycle theory has demonstrated asset price fluctuations irrelevant to changes in fundamentals through the restructuring of transaction composition centered on optimistic buyers. However, it needs to understand how this theory works in the depressed housing market with low-income residential regions to explain the geographic origins of the financial crisis. In the depressed housing market, the subprime real estate investors focused on low-income residential regions. Through this spatial focus, the low-income residential regions solely have real estate investor-oriented composition of new purchase transactions in the depressed housing market. The discovery of the subprime real estate investors as new actors lays the foundation for applying the leverage cycle theory to the depressed housing market which has been a underserved area for capital investment. This attempt illustrates how the geographical reinterpretation of an economic theory reestablishes spatio-temporal context of economic phenomena.

A SWOT Analysis by Market Size Forecasting and a Business Analysis of Korean Ship Management Companies (우리나라 선박관리기업의 시장규모추정과 경영분석에 의한 SWOT분석)

  • Lee, Shin-Won;Ahn, Ki-Myung
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.157-178
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to forecast the ship-management market size and to propose a management improvement scheme to support Korean ship management companies in the stagnating world shipping market. Recently, global shipping companies have begun outsourcing all ship management activities. However, the Korean ship-management market represents just 3.75% of ocean shipping companies' sales, making it necessary to enlarge this market. This study performs a business analysis of ship management companies in Korea. The findings show that these companies' profitability and financial structures are not very good, mainly because of insufficient management ability and small firm sizes. Therefore, we propose that the Korean government supports crew training programs and shipping financial systems.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the Volatility of Bangladeshi Stock Market: Evidence from GJR-GARCH Model

  • GOLDER, Uttam;RUMALY, Nishat;SHAHRIAR, A.H.M.;ALAM, Mohammad Jahangir;BISWAS, Al Amin;ISLAM, Mohammad Nazrul
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2022
  • The enormous sway of COVID-19 on the international financial market has been felt across the globe. The financial markets of Bangladesh have also been similarly affected by the global epidemic and experienced a significant increase in volatility. To scrutinise the connection between COVID-19 and the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) indices' return and instability, this study uses data of the DSE from February 2014 to September 2021. A comparative examination of the return and instability of the stock indices of the DSE has also been done considering the outbreak of the current COVID-19 situation. After using the GJR-GARCH (1,1) model, this review uncovers that the outbreak of COVID-19 has a statistically positive noteworthy association with the DSE stock indices' instability, which increases the market's volatility. Traders' fear and the rising frequency of COVID-19 reported patients could cause this. Besides, according to this study, COVID-19 shows a substantial positive linkage with stock market returns that increases the market's return. An appealing valuation, lower interest rates in the banking channel, economic rebound following the closure to prevent coronavirus transmission, improved remittance inflows, and a return of export revenues could all have contributed to this outcome. In addition, the findings also reveal that all market indices are in a mean-reverting phase.

Relation between Risk and Return in the Korean Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market (주가와 환율의 위험-수익 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Gon;Lee, Phil-Sang
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.199-226
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    • 2009
  • We examine the intertemporal relation between risk and return in the Korean stock market and foreign exchange market based on the two factor ICAPM framework. The standard GARCH model and the GJR(1993) model are employed to estimate conditional variances of the stock returns and foreign exchange rates. The covariance between the rates of stock returns and changes in the exchange rates are estimated by the constant conditional correlation model of Bollerslev(1990) and the dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle(2002). The multivariate GARCH in mean model and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method, consequently, are applied to investigate riskreturn relation jointly. We find that the estimated coefficient of relative risk aversion is negative and statistically significant in the post-financial crisis sample period in the Korean stock market. We also show that the expected stock returns are negatively related to the dynamic covariance with foreign exchange rates. Both estimated parameters of conditional variance and covariance in the foreign exchange market, however, are not statistically significant. The GJR model is better than the standard GARCH model to estimate the conditional variances. In addition, the dynamic conditional correlation model has higher explanatory power than the constant correlation model. The empirical results of this study suggest following two points to investors and risk managers in hedging and diversifying strategies for their portfolios in the Korean stock market: first, the variability of foreign exchange rates should be considered, and second, time-varying correlation between stock returns and changes in foreign exchange rates supposed to be considered.

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Financial Analysis by Conditional Quantile Regression on Corporate Research & Development Intensity for KOSDAQ-listed Firms in the Korean Capital Market (국내 자본시장의 코스닥 상장기업들의 연구개발비 비중에 대한 분위회귀모형을 활용한 재무적 분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.179-190
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    • 2020
  • This research analyses the financial characteristics of corporate R&D intensity in the Korean capital market. It is important to pay greater attention to this subject, given the current situation of the shortage of core components domestically in Korea. Three hypotheses are postulated to investigate the financial factors of R&D investments for KOSDAQ-listed firms during the post-era of the global financial turmoil. By applying a conditional quantile regression (CQR) model, three variables included R&D intensity in the previous year (Lag_RD), the squared term of Lag_RD, and interaction between the high-tech sector and Lag_Rd, reveal significant effects on the current R&D ratio. Whereas more than half of the total variables show variable impacts between firms with higher and lower R&D intensity, only Lag_RD and squared term of Lag_RD were found to be significant. It is expected that these results may contribute to being financial catalysts for an optimal level of R&D expenditures, thereby maximizing firm value for shareholders in KOSDAQ-listed firms.

Information Asymmetry Issues in Online Lending : A Case Study of P2P Lending Site (인터넷 대부시장에서의 정보비대칭성 문제 : P2P 금융회사 사례를 중심으로)

  • Yoo, Byung-Joon;Jeon, Seong-Min;Do, Hyun-Myung
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.285-301
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    • 2010
  • Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending is an open marketplace for loans not from bank but from individuals online. Financial transactions are facilitated directly between individuals ("peers") without any intermediation of a traditional financial institution. A market study by renowned research company forecasts that P2P lending will grow very fast and a couple of P2P lending sites in Korea also are getting attentions by providing the alternative financial services. In P2P lending market, Lender will enjoy higher income generated from the loans in the form of interest than interest that can be earned by financial products provided by official financial institutions. Furthermore, lenders are able to decide who they would lend the money for themselves. Meanwhile, borrowers with low credit scores are able to finance their liquidity requirement with low cost and convenient access to the Internet. The objective of this paper is to introduce P2P lending and its issues of information asymmetry. We provide the insights from the case study of one of P2P lending sites in Korea and review the issues in P2P lending market as research topics. Specifically, information asymmetry issues in both traditional financial institutions and P2P lending are discussed.

A Study on Export Financing Policy for Korean SMEs - Focusing on Korea EXIM'S Bank -

  • Bae, Sang Mok;Park, Se Hun
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.60
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    • pp.177-194
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    • 2013
  • According to the 2013 statistics, the small/medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) accounted for 99.9% of the Korean economy with 87.8% of employment. This simple figures also indicate SMEs export extension is a key task for the national economy stimulation and job creation. The SMEs export plunge has been affected by the European financial turbulence, US financial instability, developing countries like China entering foreign markets, a weak yen, etc. EXIM Bank, in this context, will need to take a more proactive attitude to provide trade finance by, for example, reviewing the business feasibility for SMEs with a lower credit rank or investigating importers' credit status, etc. Moreover EXIM Bank provides factoring service mostly to large companies and should lower its threshold for service provision to SMEs. Finally EXIM Bank should play more than a primary forfeiting market entity. It also needs to facilitate the secondary forfeiting market.

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What Drives the Stock Market Comovements between Korea and China, Japan and the U.S.?

  • Lee, Jinsoo;Yu, Bok-Keun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.45-66
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    • 2018
  • This paper measures the extent of comovements in stock returns between Korea and three major countries (China, Japan and the U.S.) using industry-level data for Korea from 2003 to 2016 in the spirit of the international capital asset pricing model. It also examines what drives the comovements between Korea and the three countries. We find that the comovements of Korean stock returns with those of the U.S. and Japan became smaller after the global financial crisis. In contrast, the comovement in stock returns between Korea and China became larger after the crisis. After an additional analysis, we conclude that trade linkage is the main driver of the comovements between Korea and the three countries.